When to stop

Hi all,
In his book, Stanford Wong emphasizes that there is no optimally correct time to stop playing when winning. I was curious to hear how people do it. I generally stop if losing a negative trend doesn't seem to stop for more than an hour, but usually just time-limit myself on positive streaks.

Anyway, given ~1% advantage play, how long do people keep going if they're doing well?

If you are playing BJ and you are certain that you have full 1% advantage, then you are probably in the professional or semi-professional level. In theory, when you have the advantage, you should never stop. But in reality, you might want to stop because you have exposed too much of your betting spread and you want to milk the casino instead of killing it in one day. If you are losing a lot due to the negative variance, it is not a bad idea to switch to other casinos. It has nothing to do with the math but switching casinos might you psychologically. So that, you have better confidence.

I set stop limits for both wins and losses, with time limits that override either. For example, I might sit down at a table at 1PM, with $500. I will play until I either double up, lose $300, or until 4PM.

Obviously, if I get a bad vibe early, like if the table isn't any fun, I'll cash out quickly. But I never forget that the run of cards is an illusion, a story our mind tells itself. The next hand/shoe/roll could start a winning streak or a losing streak, or continue a winning streak or a losing streak, or anything in between. The next deal at this table is no better or worse than the next deal at any other table.

I play craps.

I stop when:
1) $0 left
2) double my $1500 buy in
3) no longer having fun

an example of #3:
drove an hr to the casino. I didnt know they had a live singer that day. don't know if it was the sound system or her voice but I was getting a headache.
after 20 min, I drove home.

2hrs driving for 20min play. discipline has taught me this is the better thing to do.

now if I only have more discipline for #2 :)

I have a goal. When I reach the goal, I quit and
leave. From the second I walk in the door, all
I see is my goal and getting the hell out. I don't
like casinos at all.

I used to like them, years ago. But the casino
mentality was different, it was more laid back,
more friendly. Now it's all cameras and uptight
suits and dealers, it's all about the bottom line.
It's no longer a business, it's an industry.

Wong doesn't say there's no correct time to stop playing if you're winning. He says there's no correct time to quit playing if you're playing with an edge. If you're playing with an advantage, barring any heat, you quit when you get tired and may may make mistakes.

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Quote: anonimuss

Wong doesn't say there's no correct time to stop playing if you're winning. He says there's no correct time to quit playing if you're playing with an edge. If you're playing with an advantage, barring any heat, you quit when you get tired and may may make mistakes.

Wong. Now there's an authority. You quit when you
reach your goal. Punch out, and leave. Duh.

I mostly work short term advantages which is a different formula than a perpetual advantage. To me a short term advantage is when a progressive meter is high enough that I will play until the meter is reset. Or when I find a banking game where enough has been banked that I have an advantage until I achieve the bonus for completing the sequence of events. In these situations there are five things a person has to know. "What to play, why you should play it, when to play it, how to play it, and when to quit playing it." The quitting it is pretty easy. Once you hit the progressive meter, or collect the bonus/meter in a banking game, it is no longer in a positive situation. It's time to let the machine soak, i.e., let the ploppies drive the meter up, or bank up the symbols, to where the game is positive again. So I go scouting for another positive situation.

For perpetual advantages quitting because you are ahead, as a singular reason, is silly. That's why casinos are open 24/7/365. The recurring sum of net edge times volume equals the earn. I quit for the day when I'm tired. Quitting because you are behind is also a silly reason--as long as you are not in bankroll trouble. But then you should have done your bankroll calculations before jumping on the play and shouldn't have been on it without a swing resistant bankroll. And there is always the question of torch it or milk it. If I think the play won't last I'll torch it. If I'm in a spot where I think I can make the play last longer, and pull more money out of it, I'll milk it. Milking is generally not an option when you have competition from other pros.

I'm reminded of the public debate a few years ago between Rob Singer and Steve Fezzik, the professional sport bettor. Singer explained that on his many trips to Las Vegas per year he always has a win goal. He went on to explain that once he achieves the win goal he immediately goes out to his car and drives back home to Scottsdale, Arizona. Fezzik's response was "What do you do? Tag the building?"

Quote: arcticfun

Hi all,
In his book, Stanford Wong emphasizes that there is no optimally correct time to stop playing when winning. I was curious to hear how people do it. I generally stop if losing a negative trend doesn't seem to stop for more than an hour, but usually just time-limit myself on positive streaks.

Anyway, given ~1% advantage play, how long do people keep going if they're doing well?

Your question is specifically about playing blackjack with an advantage. When you have the advantage, the longer you play the more you can expect to win. The casino doesn't quit when they reach a certain win and neither should you.

If you are counting and have the advantage you needn't concern yourself with win or stop losses or with streaks that can't be predicted. The count, not streaks, will dictate how you play and bet. If you've won several hands in a row in a count that hovers around zero will you dramatically raise your bet? If the count is sky high and you lose several hands in a row do you lower your bet?

There are reasons to stop playing or move to another table or casino and we can discuss them if you like. Obviously, when the inevitable happens and you deplete your trip or session bankroll, you'll have to stop and there is a right way and a wrong way to do that.

I'm speaking only to advantage play in blackjack. Non advantage players and advantage players of other games will most likely have different views.

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If you like doing it you focus on the start and on the continuation...
you didn't trek to Vegas in order to leave it. Its an eventuality that will take place, but you focus on the good part(s).

If your luck at the tables has not been particularly good... that is what bars and good looking young ladies are for. Or piano lounges or comped movies or comped bowling or comped anything.

If you've been winning, why quit?

If you've "started to give it all back".... stick to your original limit decisions.

If you've still got chips in the rail.... bet them!

You only quit if alcohol or jet lag has made it foolish for you to continue.

Quote: anonimuss

Wong doesn't say there's no correct time to stop playing if you're winning. He says there's no correct time to quit playing if you're playing with an edge. If you're playing with an advantage, barring any heat, you quit when you get tired and may may make mistakes.

"barring any heat". --- ah, if only that were the case....life would be so much easier. :-)

Ibeatyouraces says "goals are for poppies". I don't know. I have goals when I sit down at a table. Not a goal to win a specific amount. In that sense, goals and stop limits ARE for ploppie. My goal is to play with an advantage and be able to return, tomorrow, the day after and again next week. :-)

Longevity is my number one priority and I have 3 strict exit points based on preserving my longevity. 1). Aggressive Wong out point. I exit when the count goes negative, because at that point I am not playing with and advantage. 2). I exit at the shuffle after showing my spread. Retreating from a max bet or large bet back to a smaller bet is the number one 'tell' of a counter. Exiting after showing your top wager or even one of your larger wager eliminates that biggest of 'tells'. Number 1 and number 2, almost assures that I will not be at that table long, but in the event that neither has occurred, number 3 is that I will exit after about 45 minutes. Even without showing your complete spread, everything you do, the way you play different hands, the way you handle your chips, your mannerisms at the table all provide clues about you. Clues that when added together begin to paint a complete picture. I limit my exposure to prevent that picture from being completed. At least from a single sitting.

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Very true and exactly what I mean. The only time I may stop on a win or loss is to reevaluate my bankroll and decide on whether to increase or decrease my spreads.

Signature updated :-)

I like your new signature. :-)

Straying off topic, but how frequently do you re-evaluate and re-size? I am at a point now that re-sizing is no longer an issue. My BR is large enough that my top wager is no longer determined by BR limitations, but rather a desire to play at a certain level that I perceive to be within the tolerance or comfort level of the casino I am playing.

But, back when I was still growing my BR, I was slow to re-size up. I know that is not optimal for growth, but I wanted to be certain, that when I resized up, I could play that level with little risk of re-sizing down. I can't think of anything more frustrating that say losing a quarter of your bankroll paying a certain level and then re-sizing down and trying to win that money back playing half the stakes. Uggg!

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I'm goal oriented. If I don't have a point B, I'm kind of lost. Deadlines work well for me.