My first month counting: big wins, big loss @ the Mohegan Sun, CT
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October 27th, 2013 at 4:10:43 PM
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What follows is a pretty nasty experience that highlights the importance of bankroll and bet sizing in advantage play after about a month of weekly outings to the Mohegan Sun casino near Norwich, CT.
After a couple of sessions of non-counting BS play, I decided to be more serious about blackjack and spent a lot of hours learning how to count. My first counting experience was immensely gratifying: I came in with about $500 and played $10 BJ, and netted $1200 at the end of the night. I didn't have a good intuition for betting spread, nor did I know at how much I should cap my large bets. But I did what made sense - keep min-betting until the shoe gets really hot, and then increase bets. The largest bet I made was maybe $75. What's "really hot?" usually, a running count of 10 or more after the shoe is about halfway through. And the coolest feeling in the world is winning high-bet hands *because* you know you're more likely to be winning.
Well, being much more confident given my first success, I continued. I moved to the $25 table on my next visit, and netted $1k. Big bets were $175 (remember, my bankroll was about $1500). So now, armed with about $3k, I decided to hit the $50 tables. Those are a lot of fun - people actually know the game, staff takes better care of you (larger drinks, hot towels, generally better dealers, etc.) And I had an AWESOME night, netting $5k over the course of maybe 8 hours. Better than most day jobs, huh? The whole time, I was convinced that I was so successful specifically BECAUSE counting helped and because I was taking advantage of high counts at the right time. Incidentally, I never got undue attention for "counter-like" behavior, despite a nearly 10-to-1 bet spread and making pretty sudden bet jumps. I welcome comments on whether this is just because Mohegan is a very big and very busy place or if I was just lucky...
So then my next visit happened. Armed with a $7k bankroll and my previous three experience, I headed straight for the $50 table, kept min-betting and intended to play $325 large bets when the count became favorable. And that's when Lady Variance decided to smile less favorably on me.
For one thing, the counts were neutral or negative for hours upon hours. Moreover, I was losing many min-bet hands -- so much so that the few instances I won a medium-to-large bet did not make up for the overall loss. So I was bored, frustrated, and about $2k down. It's amazing how one's attitude toward money changes after only one or two experiences -- remember that I had started the month with $500, hoping to win a couple hundred dollars, and now my goal was to repeat my $5k win experience. THAT WAS NOT THE CORRECT GOAL. But it fueled me to behaved the way I did when finally, the count was getting higher and made it to +15 with maybe two hands left in the shoe. How awesome is that, right?
So I did what I had planned: place my $325 bet. I get dealt 77 while the rest of the board is loaded with 10s. The dealer has a 6. It's truly a beautiful sight. I split my 7s. I get another 7. COOL, i thought. Then another 7. Split again. First card, 4. Double down. I get a 9 for a total of 20. Sweet! Next hand: ANOTHER FUCKING 7. So I start to get worried, because I already have over 1k on the board. but I split. I get a 3. What can I do? I double down, and get a 10 for a total of 20. OK, whew. Third hand: get a 10, for a total of 17. Forth hand, same thing. Last hand, I get a 2, double down, and get a 9 for a total of 18. Total money down is $325 x 5 hands with 3 double downs. That's $2600, and the kind of situation you would normally WANT to be in - it's what you hope for when you are counting: large bets with splits and double downs and a higher-than-normal likelihood of the dealer busting. What you don't want is the dealer to flop a 4 and then draw an ace. Yes, that happened.
So I was back down to under $3k. After more min-bet play at the $50 table, I eventually lost another $2k, simply because no favorable high-betting situations showed up and the BS play while min-betting proved abysmally unlucky. And that's when I finally stopped and was forced to move to a $10 table with a single purple ($500) chip, and grind grind grind with high bets of (whoopdeedoo) $30 for the remainder of the night. I crept back up slightly, but left the casino with only $1500 --- much less than the stack of hundreds I was shooting for.
Lesson learned:
1) My $5k win was an ANOMALY. So were my other wins. Yes, I was skillful, but also lucky. But I overestimated the effect my skill, and underestimated the effect of variance.
2) Stanford Wong and other pro BJ players recommend a bankroll of at least 150 times your biggest bet. That means, even with a 5k bankroll, a $50 bet is kind of risky. And in retrospect, so were my $30 big bets at the $10 table after my big loss.
3) There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that I can count and that counting works. I can't tell you how often I saw a dealer 5 drawing to a 19 or 20 when the counts were low (and everyone keeps saying "unbelievable"), and how drawing a 12 vs a dealer 4 helped me in low-count situations (I got yelled at SO badly for that one. But you do what you have to do - ignore everyone but yourself and your interests). Similarly, high counts really do predict a slew of incoming face cards -- you must just be prepared to be dealt the 5 or 6 that is mixed in between them.
4) My goal on that last night should have been to maybe come out $1k ahead. That would have been a successful night. but the thrill of the previous $5k success had completely clouded my judgment. I should have played the $10 table with big bets of no more than $100 rather than taking it to the $50 table and betting 300.
5) If you want to drop $300 bets, you need to be ready to split and double. That means, your bankroll needs to survive a big loss such as the one that happened to me.
6) You don't win at BJ by winning more hands than you lose. Sure, that does help. But mainly, you win at BJ because you bet high when you're more likely to be dealt a winning hand. While everyone around you is upset when they lose (and you should play your role too -- celebrate wins and whine, bitch, moan when losing), you are secretly immune to either outcome. The only thing that is allowed to affect your emotions is the count -- and you keep that to yourself.
Ultimately, I view this as a positive experience. First, I learned how a big loss feels like. I learned that I need to expect them to happen, and I learned how dangerous overbetting can be. Second, if you focus on the second half of the night, I won $1000 with a $500 starting bankroll by grinding a $10 table. Boring, slow, frustrating, sure .... but proof that counting is lucrative if you have the cool nerves and the patience.
So yeah, people. Don't overbet.
After a couple of sessions of non-counting BS play, I decided to be more serious about blackjack and spent a lot of hours learning how to count. My first counting experience was immensely gratifying: I came in with about $500 and played $10 BJ, and netted $1200 at the end of the night. I didn't have a good intuition for betting spread, nor did I know at how much I should cap my large bets. But I did what made sense - keep min-betting until the shoe gets really hot, and then increase bets. The largest bet I made was maybe $75. What's "really hot?" usually, a running count of 10 or more after the shoe is about halfway through. And the coolest feeling in the world is winning high-bet hands *because* you know you're more likely to be winning.
Well, being much more confident given my first success, I continued. I moved to the $25 table on my next visit, and netted $1k. Big bets were $175 (remember, my bankroll was about $1500). So now, armed with about $3k, I decided to hit the $50 tables. Those are a lot of fun - people actually know the game, staff takes better care of you (larger drinks, hot towels, generally better dealers, etc.) And I had an AWESOME night, netting $5k over the course of maybe 8 hours. Better than most day jobs, huh? The whole time, I was convinced that I was so successful specifically BECAUSE counting helped and because I was taking advantage of high counts at the right time. Incidentally, I never got undue attention for "counter-like" behavior, despite a nearly 10-to-1 bet spread and making pretty sudden bet jumps. I welcome comments on whether this is just because Mohegan is a very big and very busy place or if I was just lucky...
So then my next visit happened. Armed with a $7k bankroll and my previous three experience, I headed straight for the $50 table, kept min-betting and intended to play $325 large bets when the count became favorable. And that's when Lady Variance decided to smile less favorably on me.
For one thing, the counts were neutral or negative for hours upon hours. Moreover, I was losing many min-bet hands -- so much so that the few instances I won a medium-to-large bet did not make up for the overall loss. So I was bored, frustrated, and about $2k down. It's amazing how one's attitude toward money changes after only one or two experiences -- remember that I had started the month with $500, hoping to win a couple hundred dollars, and now my goal was to repeat my $5k win experience. THAT WAS NOT THE CORRECT GOAL. But it fueled me to behaved the way I did when finally, the count was getting higher and made it to +15 with maybe two hands left in the shoe. How awesome is that, right?
So I did what I had planned: place my $325 bet. I get dealt 77 while the rest of the board is loaded with 10s. The dealer has a 6. It's truly a beautiful sight. I split my 7s. I get another 7. COOL, i thought. Then another 7. Split again. First card, 4. Double down. I get a 9 for a total of 20. Sweet! Next hand: ANOTHER FUCKING 7. So I start to get worried, because I already have over 1k on the board. but I split. I get a 3. What can I do? I double down, and get a 10 for a total of 20. OK, whew. Third hand: get a 10, for a total of 17. Forth hand, same thing. Last hand, I get a 2, double down, and get a 9 for a total of 18. Total money down is $325 x 5 hands with 3 double downs. That's $2600, and the kind of situation you would normally WANT to be in - it's what you hope for when you are counting: large bets with splits and double downs and a higher-than-normal likelihood of the dealer busting. What you don't want is the dealer to flop a 4 and then draw an ace. Yes, that happened.
So I was back down to under $3k. After more min-bet play at the $50 table, I eventually lost another $2k, simply because no favorable high-betting situations showed up and the BS play while min-betting proved abysmally unlucky. And that's when I finally stopped and was forced to move to a $10 table with a single purple ($500) chip, and grind grind grind with high bets of (whoopdeedoo) $30 for the remainder of the night. I crept back up slightly, but left the casino with only $1500 --- much less than the stack of hundreds I was shooting for.
Lesson learned:
1) My $5k win was an ANOMALY. So were my other wins. Yes, I was skillful, but also lucky. But I overestimated the effect my skill, and underestimated the effect of variance.
2) Stanford Wong and other pro BJ players recommend a bankroll of at least 150 times your biggest bet. That means, even with a 5k bankroll, a $50 bet is kind of risky. And in retrospect, so were my $30 big bets at the $10 table after my big loss.
3) There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that I can count and that counting works. I can't tell you how often I saw a dealer 5 drawing to a 19 or 20 when the counts were low (and everyone keeps saying "unbelievable"), and how drawing a 12 vs a dealer 4 helped me in low-count situations (I got yelled at SO badly for that one. But you do what you have to do - ignore everyone but yourself and your interests). Similarly, high counts really do predict a slew of incoming face cards -- you must just be prepared to be dealt the 5 or 6 that is mixed in between them.
4) My goal on that last night should have been to maybe come out $1k ahead. That would have been a successful night. but the thrill of the previous $5k success had completely clouded my judgment. I should have played the $10 table with big bets of no more than $100 rather than taking it to the $50 table and betting 300.
5) If you want to drop $300 bets, you need to be ready to split and double. That means, your bankroll needs to survive a big loss such as the one that happened to me.
6) You don't win at BJ by winning more hands than you lose. Sure, that does help. But mainly, you win at BJ because you bet high when you're more likely to be dealt a winning hand. While everyone around you is upset when they lose (and you should play your role too -- celebrate wins and whine, bitch, moan when losing), you are secretly immune to either outcome. The only thing that is allowed to affect your emotions is the count -- and you keep that to yourself.
Ultimately, I view this as a positive experience. First, I learned how a big loss feels like. I learned that I need to expect them to happen, and I learned how dangerous overbetting can be. Second, if you focus on the second half of the night, I won $1000 with a $500 starting bankroll by grinding a $10 table. Boring, slow, frustrating, sure .... but proof that counting is lucrative if you have the cool nerves and the patience.
So yeah, people. Don't overbet.
October 27th, 2013 at 4:18:37 PM
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deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
October 27th, 2013 at 4:44:21 PM
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With a post that long and not one single comment about the pen, I forsee a very short AP career for you.
October 27th, 2013 at 4:45:46 PM
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Are you paying attention to the penetration? Mohegan Sun has some of the worst. It can be dealer dependent but you must put in the time to find the very few who will make a decent cut. If you play $50 minimums, bankroll permitting, the Newport Room at Foxwoods almost always has them. They cut out a deck or slightly less at every table. The six deck game is only in the high limit rooms, not on the main floor.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
October 27th, 2013 at 4:46:46 PM
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Quote: sabreWith a post that long and not one single comment about the pen, I forsee a very short AP career for you.
Ah - I forgot to list the playing conditions:
S17, Split up to 4x, DAS allowed, surrender allowed, dealer checks for BJ, 6 decks, penetration around 75% though some dealers cut it at two thirds.
October 27th, 2013 at 4:49:03 PM
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Quote: arcticfunAh - I forgot to list the playing conditions:
S17, Split up to 4x, DAS allowed, surrender allowed, dealer checks for BJ, 6 decks, penetration around 75% though some dealers cut it at two thirds.
No, splitting is unlimited. If you get eight 7s you can split them all.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
October 27th, 2013 at 5:04:34 PM
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All gamblers do that.. skill, the waitress, luck, ... suddenly the sun shines on you and the dealers keep paying you.Quote: arcticfunYes, I was skillful, but also lucky. But I overestimated the effect my skill, and underestimated the effect of variance.
>There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that I can count and that counting works.
Great. You may have to bear that in mind if you get sent to other casinos, but do keep that in mind. Counting works, but the dealer can still win. Even the most unlikely hands, the dealer can still win.
>My goal on that last night should have been to maybe come out $1k ahead.
>but the thrill of the previous $5k success had completely clouded my judgment.
Seems like you learned a great lesson. Your goal should always be to have fun and make a reasonable amount of money.
>If you want to drop $300 bets, you need to be ready to split and double.
>That means, your bankroll needs to survive a big loss such as the one that happened to me.
No, it doesn't need to be since there is indeed a chance that you will get lucky and stay lucky, but ... .
>You don't win at BJ by winning more hands than you lose. Sure, that does help.
>But mainly, you win at BJ because you bet high when you're more likely to be dealt a winning hand.
Sure. Good luck. Keep counting. The casino knows that people who overbet and win will eventually overbet and lose.
>Ultimately, I view this as a positive experience.
If you leave the casino at your own option and have any amount in the plus column, its a positive experience.
October 27th, 2013 at 5:09:53 PM
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I thought this was one of the most useful and informative write-ups I've ever seen on this forum. Nicely done, arctic.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
October 27th, 2013 at 5:12:04 PM
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"From this moment on, no matter what we do, the Titanic will flounder. It is a mathematical certainty". You will recognize this as a quote from Thomas Andrews in Titanic. But it might just as well be in reference to the original poster. If you overbet, betting more than 2 times Kelly, it is a mathematical certainty that you will go broke. And the original poster is betting way more than 2 Kelly, so it is not a matter of if, but when.
I recommend you immediately read up on RoR, Kelly wagering and expectation, before you continue, if you really want to take card counting seriously and give yourself a reasonable chance to succeed. Without understanding and applying these concepts, your attempt at card counting is still nothing more than just gambling.
I recommend you immediately read up on RoR, Kelly wagering and expectation, before you continue, if you really want to take card counting seriously and give yourself a reasonable chance to succeed. Without understanding and applying these concepts, your attempt at card counting is still nothing more than just gambling.
December 2nd, 2013 at 3:38:44 PM
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In addition to the obvious over-betting, OP was not really using a sufficient spread with those conditions...$10 min to $75 max isn't great...neither is $50 min to $325 max.
With shoe games, all else being equal, 1-10 is really the minimum you should aim for. With a S17 game with decent pen, 1-10 will probably be enough, but you should try for more if the house will let you get away with it.
Generally I start with a 1-10 spread and "chip up" on wins, and/or bet even more after losses (obviously chasing like a degenerate) to get a sense of the tolerance. At my last counting session, my small bet was $10 and my biggest max bet was 2 hands of $150, which I made rarely. I probably averaged a $200 big bet, for a 1-20 overall spread.
Anyway, I'm not an expert at this, but 1-10 is the starting point.
With shoe games, all else being equal, 1-10 is really the minimum you should aim for. With a S17 game with decent pen, 1-10 will probably be enough, but you should try for more if the house will let you get away with it.
Generally I start with a 1-10 spread and "chip up" on wins, and/or bet even more after losses (obviously chasing like a degenerate) to get a sense of the tolerance. At my last counting session, my small bet was $10 and my biggest max bet was 2 hands of $150, which I made rarely. I probably averaged a $200 big bet, for a 1-20 overall spread.
Anyway, I'm not an expert at this, but 1-10 is the starting point.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
December 2nd, 2013 at 4:27:29 PM
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Quote: KewljFrom this moment on, no matter what we do, the Titanic will flounder. It is a mathematical certainty". You will recognize this as a quote from Thomas Andrews in Titanic. But it might just as well be in reference to the original poster. If you overbet, betting more than 2 times Kelly, it is a mathematical certainty that you will go broke. And the original poster is betting way more than 2 Kelly, so it is not a matter of if, but when.
I recommend you immediately read up on RoR, Kelly wagering and expectation, before you continue, if you really want to take card counting seriously and give yourself a reasonable chance to succeed. Without understanding and applying these concepts, your attempt at card counting is still nothing more than just gambling.
Another great post by Kewlj.
OP- have you seriously only been counting a month and decided your max bets would be 325? You sir are an animal!! I hope you have 50grand that you can comfortably lose. I believe you experienced what is called steaming or going on tilt in the poker world. You tried to chase your losses. Discipline is a huge part of gambling successfully. Another is knowing when you are and are not getting lucky. Did you read any books on card counting? Also if you are actually counting and playing correctly, the eye in the sky probably took notice as it sounds like you put in a lot of hours at that one place. Look I'm nobody's dad (well except my kids) but I would recommend practicing HUNDREDS of hours betting 10-150 long before you ever try playing at a 25 dollar or 50 dollar table again. Well unless your filthy rich, then have fun!
casino's money disappears
the execs worry when the wizard is near
He turns tears into joy
Everyone's happy when the wizard walks by
December 3rd, 2013 at 9:27:18 AM
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Quote: OzzyOsbourneAnother great post by Kewlj.
OP- have you seriously only been counting a month and decided your max bets would be 325? You sir are an animal!! I hope you have 50grand that you can comfortably lose. I believe you experienced what is called steaming or going on tilt in the poker world. You tried to chase your losses. Discipline is a huge part of gambling successfully. Another is knowing when you are and are not getting lucky. Did you read any books on card counting? Also if you are actually counting and playing correctly, the eye in the sky probably took notice as it sounds like you put in a lot of hours at that one place. Look I'm nobody's dad (well except my kids) but I would recommend practicing HUNDREDS of hours betting 10-150 long before you ever try playing at a 25 dollar or 50 dollar table again. Well unless your filthy rich, then have fun!
Ozzy - yes, $300 bets were way too early. I've clocked months of simulator play, and maybe a dozen weekends in an actual casino doing BS play, so I am not completely new to the whole thing. However, I was not at all experienced in the emotional effects of winning or losing, and it's (I guess?) a good thing the big loss happened within two weeks of the big win. I was too convinced that the wins came from skill rather than luck. It's really hard to distinguish when you keep winning your big bets. But now I know what to be careful about.
After the whole October debacle, I decided on a BR of $10k. Currently, I'm net about +$1k but that's way less than my highest high... some catching up to do. But I can confidently say that, betting mistakes aside, my counting is fairly good and the strat works. Sticking to Kelly-sized bets is somewhat boring, to be honest, and would limit me to expected winnings of about $20/hour... but it seems that I don't really have a choice until the bankroll increases. any angel investors out there? lol
Thanks, all, for comments. PM me, btw, if you're planning on a trip to MS during Dec 13-14 -- I should be around!
December 3rd, 2013 at 1:18:08 PM
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Quote: arcticfunOzzy - yes, $300 bets were way too early. I've clocked months of simulator play, and maybe a dozen weekends in an actual casino doing BS play, so I am not completely new to the whole thing. However, I was not at all experienced in the emotional effects of winning or losing, and it's (I guess?) a good thing the big loss happened within two weeks of the big win. I was too convinced that the wins came from skill rather than luck. It's really hard to distinguish when you keep winning your big bets. But now I know what to be careful about.
After the whole October debacle, I decided on a BR of $10k. Currently, I'm net about +$1k but that's way less than my highest high... some catching up to do. But I can confidently say that, betting mistakes aside, my counting is fairly good and the strat works. Sticking to Kelly-sized bets is somewhat boring, to be honest, and would limit me to expected winnings of about $20/hour... but it seems that I don't really have a choice until the bankroll increases. any angel investors out there? lol
Thanks, all, for comments. PM me, btw, if you're planning on a trip to MS during Dec 13-14 -- I should be around!
max bet = bankroll*kelly*advantage/variance
If you have a day job I suggest 0.05 for your kelly. Embrace the grind my friend.
~R
December 23rd, 2013 at 12:24:45 PM
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Quote: arcticfunAfter the whole October debacle, I decided on a BR of $10k. Currently, I'm net about +$1k but that's way less than my highest high... some catching up to do. But I can confidently say that, betting mistakes aside, my counting is fairly good and the strat works. Sticking to Kelly-sized bets is somewhat boring, to be honest, and would limit me to expected winnings of about $20/hour... but it seems that I don't really have a choice until the bankroll increases. any angel investors out there? lol
I'm a few weeks late to this thread, but I wanted to thank you for your write-up and also warn you about your future as a card counter.
The problem is where you say "sticking to Kelly-sized bets is boring". This is the problem with card-counting. It's not easy, and it's not very profitable. You need a huge bankroll and stomach for massive swings to support a reasonable expectation of profit. If you think by increasing your max bet you are increasing your expectation, you are mistaken! Your experience is a perfect case-study of why that is so: you were forced to retreat to a lower table after running out of money. You crippled your session expectation by over-betting early on. It was only a matter of time before you almost busted out. Bankroll is incredibly important. If you run out of money, you have lost the opportunity!
When you go into a casino for an AP opportunity with an insufficient bankroll, you have already failed.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
December 23rd, 2013 at 1:58:26 PM
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people never seem to understand that if you overbet kelly enough, you MUST go broke. people think i can overbet kelly and take a shot, because i still have the edge i will be ok.
no. you will go broke overbetting kelly in +EV circumstances just as surely as you will go broke betting in -EV circumstances
no. you will go broke overbetting kelly in +EV circumstances just as surely as you will go broke betting in -EV circumstances
December 23rd, 2013 at 2:07:31 PM
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Quote: sodawaterpeople never seem to understand that if you overbet kelly enough, you MUST go broke. people think i can overbet kelly and take a shot, because i still have the edge i will be ok.
no. you will go broke overbetting kelly in +EV circumstances just as surely as you will go broke betting in -EV circumstances
This is a great point, and one that most people don't quite get.
Note that once you pass 2x Kelly, your probability of eventually going broke is 100%. Everything is symmetric around the Kelly bet -- consistently betting 1.5x Kelly has the same long-term expectation as consistently betting 0.5x Kelly. This is why 2x is the "go broke" point -- betting 2.5x Kelly is (long-term) equivalent to betting -0.5x Kelly -- that is, taking the wrong (-EV) side of the bet, which is why you will eventually go broke.
The issue is a somewhat subtle concept -- if you lose a large bet, you are not only losing the amount you risked on that bet -- you are also losing the ability to bet more the next time you have a large edge! So, the losses actually compound.
