So the question is, are there *variance* tables for basic strategy plays? another way to answer my question would be to come up with simple probability densities for different outcomes (ie, what percentage of the time do you win 2, win 1, push, lose 1, lose 2 units when splitting 8s vs 10?)

The reason this information is useful is because it can help the more conservative bettor by avoiding volatile bets (like, *ahem* doubling 11 on 10, which I hate doing, or splitting 9s on 2 or 3 instead of standing, which I actually avoid altogether...)

bjstandarddeviationinfo

keep in mind that variance is the square of standard deviation.

Quote:beachbumbabsYou might find some of your answers here, and then explore some of the links within that post.

bjstandarddeviationinfo

keep in mind that variance is the square of standard deviation.

This link is a really good start and shows for basic strategy overall (aggregate probabilities) how likely different outcomes are given the player's action. I'm wondering if someone has performed some kind of Monte Carlo simulation on each play in the BS table simply to highlight the most volatile ones. Any ideas?

Quote:IbeatyouracesIt's actually possible to lose or win up to 8 units on a split.

More at one of my casinos which allows unlimited re splitting except with aces. I've seen some interesting ones.

Quote:arcticfunEveryone knows splitting 88 vs dealer 10 is the "right" way to play, in the sense that the expected value of that outcome is -0.48 vs standing, which has an EV of -0.54 -- but anyone who's ever been in that situation always hates to make that play because the likely prospect of losing two chips hurts the ego.

So the question is, are there *variance* tables for basic strategy plays? another way to answer my question would be to come up with simple probability densities for different outcomes (ie, what percentage of the time do you win 2, win 1, push, lose 1, lose 2 units when splitting 8s vs 10?)

The reason this information is useful is because it can help the more conservative bettor by avoiding volatile bets (like, *ahem* doubling 11 on 10, which I hate doing, or splitting 9s on 2 or 3 instead of standing, which I actually avoid altogether...)

this is an extremely interesting concept to me. does anyone know where to find this data, or how to generate it?

Quote:arcticfunThe reason this information is useful is because it can help the more conservative bettor by avoiding volatile bets

For me the problem with BJ is that the variance is too low already. So, as tempting as it is to deviate for the reasons you give [and, yes, I can relate!] the fact is you need to take your chances IMO. Unless it's AP play, in which case the player needs to guard against giving up even tiny edge.

Quote:arcticfunEveryone knows splitting 88 vs dealer 10 is the "right" way to play...but anyone who's ever been in that situation always hates to make that play because the likely prospect of losing two chips hurts the ego.

do you hit a pair of 8s vs 10? when in that particular situation I have no problem keeping to BS.

just surrender ;)Quote:odiousgambitFor me the problem with BJ is that the variance is too low already. So, as tempting as it is to deviate for the reasons you give [and, yes, I can relate!] the fact is you need to take your chances IMO. Unless it's AP play, in which case the player needs to guard against giving up even tiny edge.

do you hit a pair of 8s vs 10? when in that particular situation I have no problem keeping to BS.

Quote:AnzaExothis is an extremely interesting concept to me. does anyone know where to find this data, or how to generate it?

Try Blackjack Appendix 9 on the WOV site.