arcticfun
Joined: Oct 2, 2013
• Posts: 175
October 2nd, 2013 at 8:24:04 PM permalink
Everyone knows splitting 88 vs dealer 10 is the "right" way to play, in the sense that the expected value of that outcome is -0.48 vs standing, which has an EV of -0.54 -- but anyone who's ever been in that situation always hates to make that play because the likely prospect of losing two chips hurts the ego.

So the question is, are there *variance* tables for basic strategy plays? another way to answer my question would be to come up with simple probability densities for different outcomes (ie, what percentage of the time do you win 2, win 1, push, lose 1, lose 2 units when splitting 8s vs 10?)

The reason this information is useful is because it can help the more conservative bettor by avoiding volatile bets (like, *ahem* doubling 11 on 10, which I hate doing, or splitting 9s on 2 or 3 instead of standing, which I actually avoid altogether...)
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
• Posts: 13731
October 2nd, 2013 at 8:33:38 PM permalink
You might find some of your answers here, and then explore some of the links within that post.

bjstandarddeviationinfo

keep in mind that variance is the square of standard deviation.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
• Posts: 11933
October 2nd, 2013 at 8:36:01 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
arcticfun
Joined: Oct 2, 2013
• Posts: 175
October 3rd, 2013 at 7:32:36 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

You might find some of your answers here, and then explore some of the links within that post.

bjstandarddeviationinfo

keep in mind that variance is the square of standard deviation.

This link is a really good start and shows for basic strategy overall (aggregate probabilities) how likely different outcomes are given the player's action. I'm wondering if someone has performed some kind of Monte Carlo simulation on each play in the BS table simply to highlight the most volatile ones. Any ideas?
1BB
Joined: Oct 10, 2011
• Posts: 5339
October 3rd, 2013 at 9:21:11 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

It's actually possible to lose or win up to 8 units on a split.

More at one of my casinos which allows unlimited re splitting except with aces. I've seen some interesting ones.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
• Posts: 11933
October 3rd, 2013 at 9:27:04 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
AnzaExo
Joined: Aug 28, 2014
• Posts: 3
August 28th, 2014 at 10:27:19 PM permalink
Quote: arcticfun

Everyone knows splitting 88 vs dealer 10 is the "right" way to play, in the sense that the expected value of that outcome is -0.48 vs standing, which has an EV of -0.54 -- but anyone who's ever been in that situation always hates to make that play because the likely prospect of losing two chips hurts the ego.

So the question is, are there *variance* tables for basic strategy plays? another way to answer my question would be to come up with simple probability densities for different outcomes (ie, what percentage of the time do you win 2, win 1, push, lose 1, lose 2 units when splitting 8s vs 10?)

The reason this information is useful is because it can help the more conservative bettor by avoiding volatile bets (like, *ahem* doubling 11 on 10, which I hate doing, or splitting 9s on 2 or 3 instead of standing, which I actually avoid altogether...)

this is an extremely interesting concept to me. does anyone know where to find this data, or how to generate it?
odiousgambit

Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Posts: 8096
August 29th, 2014 at 3:10:42 AM permalink
Quote: arcticfun

The reason this information is useful is because it can help the more conservative bettor by avoiding volatile bets

For me the problem with BJ is that the variance is too low already. So, as tempting as it is to deviate for the reasons you give [and, yes, I can relate!] the fact is you need to take your chances IMO. Unless it's AP play, in which case the player needs to guard against giving up even tiny edge.

Quote: arcticfun

Everyone knows splitting 88 vs dealer 10 is the "right" way to play...but anyone who's ever been in that situation always hates to make that play because the likely prospect of losing two chips hurts the ego.

do you hit a pair of 8s vs 10? when in that particular situation I have no problem keeping to BS.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 16741
August 29th, 2014 at 3:18:33 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

For me the problem with BJ is that the variance is too low already. So, as tempting as it is to deviate for the reasons you give [and, yes, I can relate!] the fact is you need to take your chances IMO. Unless it's AP play, in which case the player needs to guard against giving up even tiny edge.

do you hit a pair of 8s vs 10? when in that particular situation I have no problem keeping to BS.

just surrender ;)
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
1BB
Joined: Oct 10, 2011