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Joined: Oct 2, 2013
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October 2nd, 2013 at 10:16:24 AM permalink
As an experienced BJ counter, I can definitely attest to having a noticeable and remarkable edge with true counts exceeding ~3 or 4 -- and I am happy to make bets as large as 5-7x the base bet in those instances, even if I know (and accept) that I may not win every hand despite the high count.

However, I've also experienced BJ sessions during which it takes a very long time -- 3-4 hours -- of very boring min-bet play before the shoe starts getting interesting with a high count. So my question is: for a randomly shuffled 6-deck shoe, what is the probability that the true count will, at some point exceed 2,3,4 ... ? Is it the same as the probability that it will be less than -2,-3,-4/etc? What about the probability that it will just sit and hover around 0? Thanks!
Joined: Sep 25, 2012
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October 2nd, 2013 at 11:13:08 AM permalink
Off the top of my head I believe I recall that true count of +3 appears roughly 10% of the time.

So in a given average hour you might expect about six minutes.

Typing this from my phone however so I'm sure others may chime in here with more specific references and/or data proof, my recollection may be flawed...

Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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October 2nd, 2013 at 11:21:22 AM permalink
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563

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