One Big Hand

I'm loathe to admit this but I have been known to walk to an empty blackjack table and play 1 big hand. Be it 200/500/or even 1000 sometimes.

My question is is there a different strategy for this kind of thing. Example: I draw to 16, dealer shows 17. Basic Strategy tells me that I should always hit this hand. However I know that I will bust 70% of the time losing straight away. If I stand on 16 the dealer will only have a 17 40% of the time. The other 60% of the time he may draw to a bust. Of course maybe he flips over an 11 and draws to 17-21. I still believe the correct move here on the players part is to stay.

Why am I wrong?

Something tells me basic strategy is basic strategy for a reason and should be followed for the greatest chance of success but I can't understand why in this situation it is the right move.

Any more experienced players care to weigh in? Much thanks in advance.

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Interesting, I overlooked the possibility of the dealer having lower cards.

Thanks for the help!

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Quote: dbuikema

I'm loathe to admit this but I have been known to walk to an empty blackjack table and play 1 big hand. Be it 200/500/or even 1000 sometimes.

My question is is there a different strategy for this kind of thing. Example: I draw to 16, dealer shows 17. Basic Strategy tells me that I should always hit this hand. However I know that I will bust 70% of the time losing straight away. If I stand on 16 the dealer will only have a 17 40% of the time. The other 60% of the time he may draw to a bust. Of course maybe he flips over an 11 and draws to 17-21. I still believe the correct move here on the players part is to stay.

Why am I wrong?

Something tells me basic strategy is basic strategy for a reason and should be followed for the greatest chance of success but I can't understand why in this situation it is the right move.

Any more experienced players care to weigh in? Much thanks in advance.

Although I am not a math genius, I would think that it would also depend on whether you were playing a shoe game or a single deck game. In a single deck game, you would know what cards were not left in the deck (i.e. if your 16 was made up of multiple cards, this could influence whether you would hit or not against the dealer 7)

Quote: dbuikema

I'm loathe to admit this but I have been known to walk to an empty blackjack table and play 1 big hand. Be it 200/500/or even 1000 sometimes.

My question is is there a different strategy for this kind of thing. Example: I draw to 16, dealer shows 17. Basic Strategy tells me that I should always hit this hand. However I know that I will bust 70% of the time losing straight away. If I stand on 16 the dealer will only have a 17 40% of the time. The other 60% of the time he may draw to a bust. Of course maybe he flips over an 11 and draws to 17-21. I still believe the correct move here on the players part is to stay.

Why am I wrong?

Something tells me basic strategy is basic strategy for a reason and should be followed for the greatest chance of success but I can't understand why in this situation it is the right move.

Any more experienced players care to weigh in? Much thanks in advance.

If you're not counting follow basic strategy. Are you prepared for double downs, splits, re splits and doubling after splitting when you make those bets? With max bet out on two hands, I just had a split that went to five hands with three of them doubled. Won the whole thing while pushing the second hand. I am now up $400 for the month of September. Yay!

1BB that's an excellent point. The short answer is no, I'm typically not prepared to drop another grand on a double or a split. Makes me think I should put half the down in case I'm able to take advantage of that kind of opportunity.

Quote: dbuikema

1BB that's an excellent point. The short answer is no, I'm typically not prepared to drop another grand on a double or a split. Makes me think I should put half the down in case I'm able to take advantage of that kind of opportunity.

Great! I'm glad you'll consider that. Being unable to complete a juicy double or split due to lack or funds can be frustrating and costly.

What about a more marginal play. Say 8,8 vs dealer 10? Assuming S17 basic strategy says split. If I had $1K out I think I might surrender and put the $500 on the next hand rather than put another $K into it.
It seems to me that blackjack isn't the best game for the one big play move. You are only about 42% to win an individual hand.

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Quote: JimRockford

What about a more marginal play. Say 8,8 vs dealer 10? Assuming S17 basic strategy says split. If I had $1K out I think I might surrender and put the $500 on the next hand rather than put another $K into it.
It seems to me that blackjack isn't the best game for the one big play move. You are only about 42% to win an individual hand.

Without considering the large bet, the math says that you will lose 48% by splitting and 50%, obviously, by surrendering. Hopefully no one will bet that way but we all know it happens every day and surrender isn't always offered.

Depending on who you talk to, the index is zero or +1 to surrender using Zen or Hi-Lo.

If Surrender allowed (rare these days), I would be counting: not making "I wanna" decisions.

+1

I have seem soooo many times where someone does that and is dealt a must split like 77 vs 7 and they dont have it so they take a hit and bust. If you are going to do that then you should really only do half the bet.

You all make a lot of sense. I suppose I should re evaluate where I do the one time play. Typically it's the houses money which I guess is why it happens so rarely (haha).

If you want to see a really big hand, go to the Silverton and let Nick deal to you!