Ace 5 counting system

Heading to Vegas next month and wanting to try out the Ace 5 counting system laid out on the Wizard of Odds site. 2 questions: 1) Are you supposed to double your bet if the count is greater than +2 no matter how much of the shoe has been dealt? It seems a little risky to me to start doubling your bets if two 5s come out early but there are still 5+ decks left in the shoe. 2) Assuming a spread of $10-80, how much would you reasonably need to have as a bankroll for this type of counting?

Any help is appreciated

Bankroll is not a one size fits all situation. What are the rules, number of decks and penetration of the game you will be playing? Will you be wonging in and or out? How many hours will you play?

Danzilla, the A-5 system is better than no system, but even with the best system- there's all sorts of risks and variance. Expert card counters sit with $1000, with a max bet of $200, and lose it all. It happens... and with a $10-$80 spread, it's possible of losing upwards of $500 in a night. I'd recommend dealing out some hands to yourself as practice. Use chips or some sort of counters to actually place bets also. You'll get a good feel for what your wins and losses might look like, while improving your game. Practice dealing out the whole deck, slow at first, them more quickly, counting the +1 5's and the -1 A's, until you can confidently keep the count. You might want to consider using a $10-25 spread and see how that goes on the first night, and move on from there. And since you're starting out, set a bankroll around what you're willing to lose, from a personal finance standpoint- not from the standpoint of being a career Advantage Player. Hope this helps.

As far as doubling your bet at +2, it's really up to you. Anytime you bet more, you risk more. If you know there are aces coming (which you know, to some extent, if the count is +2), you also know you probably have a better than 49.5% win rate ahead. Do what feels comfortable. For example:

Conservative: flat bet $10 all night, leave any table where A-5 count goes -2.

Moderate: bet $10, at +1 bet $20, +2 and above bet $25/30.

Aggressive: $10, +1 $25, +2 $50.

Each of these will have different risks of a large loss, opportunities for a big win, and average length of playing time... you have to ask yourself what you want. My first time counting cards I spread from $10 to $25, and was excited/glad to see the HiLo count working, as I turned $200 into $400. Had I spread more, I would have won more- but I really didn't want to leave the table empty handed if I could help it- so I kept the bets low. (Keep in mind with a $25 bet, you must double down or split when good opportunities arise- that makes it a $50 bet on one hand).

Hi, Danzilla:

I was in exactly your shoes a few weeks ago. I even asked that exact question on this board and I'm happy to share what I learned; namely, that Ace - Five's not an effective counting system. It's really just a primer to introduce players to more standard Hi/Lo counting systems.

For your situation, I recommend dumping Ace - Five for one of the following two options:

1. If you don't have a lot of time before your trip, junk Counting altogether and concentrate on perfecting Basic Strategy.

There's much easier ways to improve your bottom line than learning to Count. Playing perfect Basic Strategy based on the rules of the casino (how many decks? does dealer hit or stand soft 17's? surrender rule? and a few others) should allow you to reduce the House Edge to something like 0.5% or lower (or fifty bucks on $10,000 bet, which you can easily get back in free drinks and fun, but if you want to get into Risks of Ruin and binomial possibilities and such, you'll need somebody way smarter than me to answer).

The advantage of this option is that it's quick and easy. Just research the rules at the places you're most likely to play and print out perfect Basic Strategy cards for each set of rules. Memorize what you can, play a bunch of fake hands with your buddies, and bring the Basic Strategy cards with you to the casinos so you can look up anything you can't remember (contrary to most players' beliefs, the casinos couldn't care less if you bring a strategy card).

Here's the best Basic Strategy Card generator I know of: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bjbse.php

To polish your skills using Basic Strategy, I recommend the following game because they throw you mostly curve balls and teach you when you screw up: http://www.hitorstand.net/game_l.html

To compare casinos, here's the Wizard's set of BJ rule variations and how each impacts the House Edge: https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/rule-variations/


2. But if you really, really want to learn to Count, then skip Ace Five and go straight to a basic Hi/Lo system.

After doing Option 2 myself, I'd recommend Option 1 to you. But if your heart's set on counting, then start with the following two resources, the Wiki card counting entry for an overview: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Card_counting

And the Wizard's intro to Hi/Lo systems, here: https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/card-counting/high-low/

The Wiki entry covers it better than I could, but your question about whether every Ace Five + 2 count should indicate a doubled bet regardless of how far into the shoe goes to the heart of one of the central concepts in card counting, the Running Count (RC), or overall + / - number since the shoe started, versus the True Count (TC), which is basically the RC divided by an (estimate) of the amount of decks left in the shoe.

Ace Five doesn't use the idea of TC, which severely weakens its effectiveness.

If, despite my endorsement of Option 1, you do decide to go for a Hi/Lo system, focus first on getting the RC perfect and estimating the TC, and using that TC number to make bet size decisions (bet sizes of TC squared are ideal, but a linear bet size progression's more realistic for most bankrolls).

There's also a list of 18 alterations to play (pompously called the "Illustrious 18"), but they're tough to memorize, rarely happen, and contribute comparatively less to attacking the House Edge than the bet size benefit of counting, so ignore them until everything else in your game is right.

3. So, Clear as Mud?

Remember, I recommended Option 1, but I'm happy to answer any questions on anything I know.

Thanks everyone for your replies. So I actually landed on wanting to do the Ace-5 system after researching Hi/Lo. My question about upping bets early in the shoe actually stemmed from noticing that the true count concept used in Hi/Lo was not incorporated into Ace-5 counting. I have basic strategy more or less memorized for 6 deck, 3:2, dealer stands/hits on soft 17, surrender allowed games. Is it possible to incorporate the concept of the TC into the Ace-5 system? After trying to practice the Hi/Lo system, I'm worried I won't have the required concentration (or restraint from having a couple of drinks at the table) to actually pull it off.

During my previous gambling trips, I usually play basic strategy and bet the minimum, upping my bets only when it seemed like a lot of small cards had come out (without keeping an actual count). I'm essentially looking for a slightly more scientific way to know when to up my bets that I can realistically pull off with my loud, drunk friends around me.

Haha, it really is a challenge. So, if you're playing 6 deck, there are 24 A's and 24 5's. So if there's 24 5's and 22 A's at the beginning of the shoe and the count is +2, you are correct that it's not all that likely that more aces will be dealt. Now if there's 8 A's and 6 5's, that's more significant. I would tell you just to keep an eye on the discard pile and realize that the bigger it gets, the more your count means. This is practically the same as dividing by the estimated number of decks left to get a true count- without crazy math like 3/1.75 while you're drinking.

Dan:

Fred Renzey wrote an article that covers some simple card counting methods that may be more effective than Ace-5, but as easy to learn. Easy enough that you could learn them before your trip. At least check it out as an fyi. Google "midwest gaming easiest card counting" and it will come up. I think it's a great idea to try an easier method like Ace-5 or one of the others, and then look at moving to something that will perform better. But for your trip, you only have time to practice basic strategy and learn a simple method!

And have fun!
--Joe

To incorporate TC, I like Surrender8,8's (don't do that, though) idea of just eyeballing the size of the discard pile versus the size of the cards remaining in the shoe and going with your gut feeling.

I also endorse your plan of jumping your bet when you see a hand or two of little cards come out. With 7 players at a table, the average "good" plus hand (small cards dealt to players into a dealer's 7 - A) shows you about 25 cards, so two in a row can show you 50 cards, or nearly 1/6th of the entire 6 deck shoe.

Since two "good" hands in a row often move the RC by 8 to 10, the logic of raising your bet is sound, no matter how drunk you might be: 1/6th of the shoe's gone and a + 10-ish count has to be folded into the other 5 decks (a + 2 TC, as applied to cards played before and after those two hands). In any event, your next bet will definitely be into a better deck composition than you made your last two bets into, so based on that alone, a bigger bet's justified. Plus, it's fun.

Here's a pop quiz on basic strategy. Ace this and you're definitely past having to worry about strategy cards. What do you do when you've got:

A, 7 v 2? v 3? v 7? v 8? v 9? v 10?

4, 4 v 2? v 4? v 5? v 7?

3, 3 v 2? v 3? v 7? v 8?

5, 4 v 2? v 3? v 7?

8, 8 v 9? v 10?

9, 9 v 6? v 7? v 8? v 9? v 10?

Dealer's got a 4. What do you do with: A, 2? A, 3? A, 4? A, 5? A, 6? A, 7? A, 8?

Did you ace it?

Quote: hmmm23

To incorporate TC, I like Surrender8,8's (don't do that, though) idea of just eyeballing the size of the discard pile versus the size of the cards remaining in the shoe and going with your gut feeling.

I also endorse your plan of jumping your bet when you see a hand or two of little cards come out. With 7 players at a table, the average "good" plus hand (small cards dealt to players into a dealer's 7 - A) shows you about 25 cards, so two in a row can show you 50 cards, or nearly 1/6th of the entire 6 deck shoe.

Since two "good" hands in a row often move the RC by 8 to 10, the logic of raising your bet is sound, no matter how drunk you might be: 1/6th of the shoe's gone and a + 10-ish count has to be folded into the other 5 decks (a + 2 TC, as applied to cards played before and after those two hands). In any event, your next bet will definitely be into a better deck composition than you made your last two bets into, so based on that alone, a bigger bet's justified. Plus, it's fun.

Here's a pop quiz on basic strategy. Ace this and you're definitely past having to worry about strategy cards. What do you do when you've got:

A, 7 v 2? v 3? v 7? v 8? v 9? v 10?

4, 4 v 2? v 4? v 5? v 7?

3, 3 v 2? v 3? v 7? v 8?

5, 4 v 2? v 3? v 7?

8, 8 v 9? v 10?

9, 9 v 6? v 7? v 8? v 9? v 10?

Dealer's got a 4. What do you do with: A, 2? A, 3? A, 4? A, 5? A, 6? A, 7? A, 8?

Did you ace it?

Split 3,3 vs 8. Double A,7 vs 2. Hit 4,4 vs 5. These are all correct basic strategy plays. You've got to specify the rules and number of decks.

Quote: 1BB

Split 3,3 vs 8. Double A,7 vs 2. Hit 4,4 vs 5. These are all correct basic strategy plays. You've got specify the rules and number of decks.

That's one of the reasons I didn't give answers. I'm totally with you on A,7 vs 2; I've always wondered how that play missed the cut for the I-18.

On hitting 4,4 vs 5, is that just at casinos that don't allow doubles after splits? If so, I just don't know a lot of places with that rule. Have I just been getting lucky; is no DAS a much more common rule than I think?

But splitting 3's into an 8 is a brand new one to me. Besides DAS, what rules dictate that play?

Single deck.

I took a look at that Fred Renzey article and am wondering which system would be preferred between the A/10 front count or Ace/5 counting? Also, with Ace/10 font counting, are there any guidelines on how you're supposed to vary your bets? Or is it if the count is good after the first two decks are dealt, you just up your bets to a predetermined amount? My thought would be to somewhat subjectively follow the number of high and low cards after finishing the count and vary my bets based on that.

at 36 bet 4 units;
at 35 or less, bet 6 units, per Blackjack Bluebook by Renzey

Sorry, stupid question - when you say units do you mean just 4x-6x my minimum bet?

Yes, right.

You might want to order his book from Amazon if you think you will use this method. He devotes a short chapter to it and covers some addt simple things you can do to help improve your results, like at what count you should just leave a table. The edge is so marginal with these simpler methods that anything you can do like exiting on bad counts will really help!