Baited by the positive count

So I just got baited hard by a positive count. I was up $300 and was about to walk away when I saw that the count was hugely in my favor. So I start pressing and losing but the count kept getting higher. It culminated in a $500 bet. First got an ace and I thoight I was finally getting my payday. Nope second card is a 6. Dealer is showing 6 as well so I hit. I get a 9 and stay. Dealer has an ace and gets a 2. I went from $300 up to $800 down in 3 hands. Still kicKing myself for not walking away..

If you had the proper bankroll and the count called for a $500 bet, you did exactly what you were supposed to and did not get baited. If you were over betting then you did. If you must kick yourself do it for not doubling down. That was a big mistake regardless of the outcome of the hand. Were you over betting?

Quote: ComplexEnigma

So I just got baited hard by a positive count. I was up $300 and was about to walk away when I saw that the count was hugely in my favor. So I start pressing and losing but the count kept getting higher. It culminated in a $500 bet. First got an ace and I thoight I was finally getting my payday. Nope second card is a 6. Dealer is showing 6 as well so I hit. I get a 9 and stay. Dealer has an ace and gets a 2. I went from $300 up to $800 down in 3 hands. Still kicKing myself for not walking away..

First of all, the game is H17 from your post, which is horrible. I'll assume you had a good reason to play. Second, A6 against 6 is a double, whatever count you were using. Why did you just hit? Third, what do you mean you "saw" the count was hugely in your favor? Were you playing in a positive count? If so, why were you about to walk away from that? Were you backcounting?

It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet, according to the Wizard.

Yeah, kick yourself for not doubling down, especially in a high count. Always make sure you have enough to make a double or split. Otherwise you are not really counting, are you?

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First off let me say that I am by no way a professional card counter. As has been pointed out, this game had rules too lousy for anyone that is primarily looking for a +EV experience. I normally just keep a quasi count that probably just gets me in more trouble.
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However a child could have counted this shoe. Not a single ace had been played in the first third of the shoe and only 4 -1 cards. I got greedy and started pressing really hard hoping to cash in on the count. What I'm mostly upset about is I had told myself I was going to leave at least $100 up. I had rallied from being $500 down to $500 up at one point. From a card counting perspective, my biggest sin was placing a bet I was unwilling to double (In hindsight a good thing since a $1000 loss on that hand would have turned this from a bad beat story to an out of control gambler story).

Of course the shoe started paying out immediately after that hand, but my bankroll was so decimated from losing $1000 in 3 hands that my much smaller bets of $25 did little to regain the lost bankroll. I think I only lost one hand for the rest of the shoe.

But make no mistake, this is a story about a gambler getting greedy, not a counter getting burned.

This thread is kind of troubling. If you are playing with an advantage or attempting to play with an advantage, you don't walk away from an advantage situation. We work to hard to find thes rare situation, you just don't walk away. Having any kind of stop-limit based on win, will often require you to do exactly this, which is why real AP's are anti stop-limit.

Now, you don't exactly say that you were counting cards as part of this $300 win, ComplexEnigma, but your reference to knowing the count would lead one to beleive so, so I am going to assume that you did inded book this $300 win by counting cards. Now if $300 is enough of a win that you want to preserve it and exit, I am assuming that is at least a number of max bets. A lot of assuming here, I know, but there are a lot of gaps in your comments. So lets say your max bet was $30, $40, $50 bucks.

Now here is where the problem comes in. Your use of the term 'baited' and following action of then throwing out $500, which has to be many many times what your previous max bet was, indicates that you have no idea of just how small an advantage you are talking about, even in solid advantage situations. With a count that is "hugely in your favor", you are still NOT favored to win that hand. At such a count you will STILL lose more hands than you win. Your advantage comes mostly from that 3-2 payout on blackjacks and the fact that you will recieve them at the slightest increased frequency, and from a much lessor degree slightly more success on double downs and splits. This is just a very slight increase from a neutral deck and just enough to turn a very small disadvantage into the smallest advantage. So at no time, would any advantage based on counting be enough to warrant such a massive jump in max bet. As others have said doing so is just gambling.

It would be like playing a roulette wheel that has no zeros, just red and black numbers. This wheel has 50 black spots and only 49 red spots, so if you play black you are playing with an advantage. A slight advantage. But, if you overbet your bankroll and place half of it on black for a few spins, even though you are playing with an advantage, you will lose, unless you are just lucky. You will have taken an advantage situation and turned it into just gambling by overbetting, which is what you did with your blackjack overbetting.

Edit: ok, you have posted more details since I started my response. Your final comment that your story is more about a gambler getting greedy indicates that maybe you do understand a bit. But, I am going to still leave my response up. Maybe it will be beneficial to someone else.

Quote: chaunceyb3

First of all, the game is H17 from your post, which is horrible.

Sadly H17 is the norm these days, unless you live in PA or have the bankroll for the $25 min S17 games in Vegas or the occasional $100 min S17 games in other locations.

Each game must be evaluated. H17 is not necessarily a deal breaker if other conditions are favorable.

Quote: kewlj

Edit: ok, you have posted more details since I started my response. Your final comment that your story is more about a gambler getting greedy indicates that maybe you do understand a bit. But, I am going to still leave my response up. Maybe it will be beneficial to someone else.

KewlJ,

Whether it be for your fellow AP's or just others with a general interest in gambling, I am firmly convinced that you have never made a post that wasn't beneficial to at least one other person.

Quote: Mission146

KewlJ,

Whether it be for your fellow AP's or just others with a general interest in gambling, I am firmly convinced that you have never made a post that wasn't beneficial to at least one other person.

Absolutely agree, kewlj is fine.

It really can't be stressed enough that high counts are no guarantee of next hand wins or low counts of losses. Ploppies get lucky and expert APs can get some baffling sessions and stretches. There is no "+8...But I'm supposed to win, what happened?" Just as there's no crying in baseball.

Quote: Mission146

KewlJ,

Whether it be for your fellow AP's or just others with a general interest in gambling, I am firmly convinced that you have never made a post that wasn't beneficial to at least one other person.

Thanx Mission. I think there are those that will disagree with you though. lol

edit: Thank you as well dan. I had kind of figured you for the camp that disagreed. lol

Yeah I fell victim to my biggest gambling weakness. I saw the positive count and thought of all the aces just waiting to turn into blackjacks in the shoe. I wanted to make one last splash before leaving and take advantage of the ripe shoe. So I bet overconfidently and turned a respectable win into a pretty brutal loss. $200 had been my max bet before.