Before I learned the basic strat table...

Before I learned the basic stratagy for BJ I did alot of prognosis on my own with 8 decks of cards Id set up the same way the casino did

and I came down to figuring the dealer busted about 30% of the time. and I wanted to make the best effort to let him bust when I woudl not bust- but at the same time I had to figure out how to get as close as possible without risking too much with busting- now of course I made the general exception like when the dealer had a 3-6 I knew Id not want to hit after 12- but my basic rule of thumb I was using was something to the effect of:

Dealer 2 up= hit till 15+
3-6 up= dont hit past 12+ (double doune if possible/practicle)
7-10 up= hit till 15+
A up = hit till 17+

Of course I was doing a little bit of editing for the diffrent up cards, but in general my thought was if the dealer busts about 30% of the time (this based on my own trials over and over)- and at 15 you got 6 out of 13 cards that favor you means the odds are the next card would make you bust. (BTW this was 8 decks with continuous shuffle)-

So my rational at the time was if I could limit my busts (which it came out Id bust about 10% of the time) and use that against the times the dealer would bust. I came out winning between 42-47% of the hands with this meathod about every time I tested it.

I just didnt see why youd take the risk hitting a 16 when the dealers up card is a 10 and you want to assume hes got 20. The chances he has 17+ with a 10 upcard is 54% but the chance of you busting hitting a 16 = nearly 62%- Does the risk of hitting on a 16 vs an up of 10 not outweigh the risk of the dealer having 17+ with that same 10 up?

This is how I figured the game to seem and my basic strategy before I tried to memorize what the computers say is your best bets.

Using this meathod over hundreds of hands I came up with my winning about 45% of the time, dealer won about 50% of the time and a push 5% of the time; the dealer busting about 30% of the time, my busting about 8% of the time.

I bet the way I was playing it was awful in the houses favor- but I just felt like sharing that.. even now with using the other format I hate hitting on 16's and 15's lol.