Welcome to 2013.
After hitting the breakfast buffet at one of my favorite local joints, I sit down at the only open 6 deck table, with two other players to ease into the new year. First shoe, not a whole lot happening. Counts wobbles between zero and plus 1 for most of the shoe. There was one single hand that I placed more than my minimum wager as the count was just about 1.5. Second shoe count rises almost immediately. I roll through my spread and about 2 decks in have hit max bet. Count stays strong through out the remainder of the shoe and at the shuffle, I exit down 18 max bets or just about two-thirds of the stakes that I brought with me. So after only a half hour of play, I have to make a stop to replenish my bankroll in order to safely continue to play.
I stop at three more casinos for short sessions, winning two and losing one, very small amount sessions. On my fifth stop of the day I experience another 15 max bet loss, the big swing being a triple split, resulting in two double downs at max bet. Lost all 3 hands.
So day 1 of 2013 results in a five figure loss. Sometimes you are the windshield, sometimes the bug. Today I was the bug. I played a total of 311 days in 2012 without such a loss. Last five figure loss dates back to august 2011. Welcome to 2013! Tomorrow is another day! (hopefully) lol
Quote: kewlja triple split, resulting in two double downs at max bet. Lost all 3 hands.
those double downs that lose are just murder. Some of the splits that lose, like splitting a pair of 8s, I take a little better since it is largely a case of doing something to get rid of a terrible hand [a 16]
Quote: kewlj
So day 1 of 2013 results in a five figure loss. l
Whats your stop loss for a daily session? Obviously
its higher than $10,000 or you would have quit
before you reached it. With a stop loss over $10K,
this must be just a blip for you. Yawn and go to bed.
Quote: EvenBobWhats your stop loss for a daily session? Obviously
its higher than $10,000 or you would have quit
before you reached it. With a stop loss over $10K,
this must be just a blip for you. Yawn and go to bed.
I don't do stop losses, Bob, other than if I have exhausted the funds I have on me. If my BR (on me) has been diminished to the point that I am not comfortable starting a new session which is usually about 15 max bets on a shoe game, 8-10 on DD, I will replenish and continue, unless it is close to my stopping point (time and EV) anyway. I don't stop because I am having a bad day. The next round and/or session doesn't know I am having a bad day. I stop when I have accumulated the EV that I want for the day or I am tired. If I stop every time I am having a bad day, it just means less total rounds for the year resulting in less EV and earnings.
No, 10 grand isn't a blip for me. Wish it was. lol But it is part of the natural swings of the game, which I am pretty much used to by now. It's just a little more pronounced being at the start of the year as the ledger has nothing but red and probably will be a little while before that changes. If it happens later in the year, it's just a dip in the road.
Quote: kewljI returned to the blackjack tables today for the first time in the new year, after a 10 day break for the holidays. I don't like to play between Christmas and New Years because conditions are crowded, plus this year I was entertaining as my brother was visiting. I have been very fortunate to have started fast in past years. Even two years that I endured 6 month losing periods, 2010, and 2011, those periods came in the second part of the year after strong starts. So this year I was hoping for the same.
After hitting the breakfast buffet at one of my favorite local joints, I sit down at the only open 6 deck table, with two other players to ease into the new year. First shoe, not a whole lot happening. Counts wobbles between zero and plus 1 for most of the shoe. There was one single hand that I placed more than my minimum wager as the count was just about 1.5. Second shoe count rises almost immediately. I roll through my spread and about 2 decks in have hit max bet. Count stays strong through out the remainder of the shoe and at the shuffle, I exit down 18 max bets or just about two-thirds of the stakes that I brought with me. So after only a half hour of play, I have to make a stop to replenish my bankroll in order to safely continue to play.
I stop at three more casinos for short sessions, winning two and losing one, very small amount sessions. On my fifth stop of the day I experience another 15 max bet loss, the big swing being a triple split, resulting in two double downs at max bet. Lost all 3 hands.
So day 1 of 2013 results in a five figure loss. Sometimes you are the windshield, sometimes the bug. Today I was the bug. I played a total of 311 days in 2012 without such a loss. Last five figure loss dates back to august 2011. Welcome to 2013! Tomorrow is another day! (hopefully) lol
This is eerily familiar with how 2012 began for me. I didn't quite reach a five figure loss but it was up there and it took me the entire month to get even. Fortunately 2013 has started on a positive note. I don't believe in stop losses for positive expectation games.
Quote: kewljI returned to the blackjack tables today for the first time in the new year, after a 10 day break for the holidays. I don't like to play between Christmas and New Years because conditions are crowded, plus this year I was entertaining as my brother was visiting. I have been very fortunate to have started fast in past years. Even two years that I endured 6 month losing periods, 2010, and 2011, those periods came in the second part of the year after strong starts. So this year I was hoping for the same.
After hitting the breakfast buffet at one of my favorite local joints, I sit down at the only open 6 deck table, with two other players to ease into the new year. First shoe, not a whole lot happening. Counts wobbles between zero and plus 1 for most of the shoe. There was one single hand that I placed more than my minimum wager as the count was just about 1.5. Second shoe count rises almost immediately. I roll through my spread and about 2 decks in have hit max bet. Count stays strong through out the remainder of the shoe and at the shuffle, I exit down 18 max bets or just about two-thirds of the stakes that I brought with me. So after only a half hour of play, I have to make a stop to replenish my bankroll in order to safely continue to play.
I stop at three more casinos for short sessions, winning two and losing one, very small amount sessions. On my fifth stop of the day I experience another 15 max bet loss, the big swing being a triple split, resulting in two double downs at max bet. Lost all 3 hands.
So day 1 of 2013 results in a five figure loss. Sometimes you are the windshield, sometimes the bug. Today I was the bug. I played a total of 311 days in 2012 without such a loss. Last five figure loss dates back to august 2011. Welcome to 2013! Tomorrow is another day! (hopefully) lol
Might be time to buy casino stock. Seems like 2013 might be their year.
New year's morning I had nice winning session at craps, to get me back above water for my Vegas trip, but the rest of that day and the next were TOTAL disaster. I forgot what it is like to play when no one can make a bloody point, but at the same time, throw so many 7/11s coming out that the donts get crushed too.
Quote: kewljI don't stop because I am having a bad day..
Everything goes in streaks, including, losing. I always
had a stop loss when I plaid BJ so I would know the
parameters of my play. I always knew I would never
lose over X amount of money on any given day.
So much of gambling is psychological. If I get above a
certain loss limit, it starts to effect my decision making.
I'm out of my comfort zone and might play erratically.
I need to control as much as I can of what happens
when I play, so I have loss limits in BJ.
Each to his own.
Quote: IbeatyouracesAll you need to do is take a break,.
A stop loss is a break, thats what its for. When
you start losing more than is comfortable, you
feel like you're in an out of control situation. The
game isn't going anywhere, but your sanity might
be if you dan't take a breather and step back for 24
hours.
Quote: EvenBobEverything goes in streaks, including, losing. I always
had a stop loss when I plaid BJ so I would know the
parameters of my play. I always knew I would never
lose over X amount of money on any given day.
So much of gambling is psychological. If I get above a
certain loss limit, it starts to effect my decision making.
I'm out of my comfort zone and might play erratically.
I need to control as much as I can of what happens
when I play, so I have loss limits in BJ.
Each to his own.
Completely agree with EvenBob here, the psychology of gambling is powerful. It's hard to pull the trigger on a marginal split or double down, when you've been getting pounded. Even for the best players. So while I wouldn't presume to tell anyone here how to play. Many of you are much more accomplished players than I am. Saying you don't stop because you are an AP (and therefore it makes no sense to stop as you have an advantage), seems crazy risky to me. Would those of you who promote not having a stop loss really risk your whole bank roll? Cause that's what you are saying if you really have no stop loss.
Quote: kewljI returned to the blackjack tables today for the first time in the new year, after a 10 day break for the holidays. I don't like to play between Christmas and New Years because conditions are crowded, plus this year I was entertaining as my brother was visiting. I have been very fortunate to have started fast in past years. Even two years that I endured 6 month losing periods, 2010, and 2011, those periods came in the second part of the year after strong starts. So this year I was hoping for the same.
After hitting the breakfast buffet at one of my favorite local joints, I sit down at the only open 6 deck table, with two other players to ease into the new year. First shoe, not a whole lot happening. Counts wobbles between zero and plus 1 for most of the shoe. There was one single hand that I placed more than my minimum wager as the count was just about 1.5. Second shoe count rises almost immediately. I roll through my spread and about 2 decks in have hit max bet. Count stays strong through out the remainder of the shoe and at the shuffle, I exit down 18 max bets or just about two-thirds of the stakes that I brought with me. So after only a half hour of play, I have to make a stop to replenish my bankroll in order to safely continue to play.
I stop at three more casinos for short sessions, winning two and losing one, very small amount sessions. On my fifth stop of the day I experience another 15 max bet loss, the big swing being a triple split, resulting in two double downs at max bet. Lost all 3 hands.
So day 1 of 2013 results in a five figure loss. Sometimes you are the windshield, sometimes the bug. Today I was the bug. I played a total of 311 days in 2012 without such a loss. Last five figure loss dates back to august 2011. Welcome to 2013! Tomorrow is another day! (hopefully) lol
Hi kewlj,
What relative proportions of your play do you give to tables of varying minimums? I've been curious to ask an AP this question and now is as good a time as any. Thanks!
Often that is what separates winners from losers.
Quote: vendman1Completely agree with EvenBob here, the psychology of gambling is powerful. It's hard to pull the trigger on a marginal split or double down, when you've been getting pounded. Even for the best players. So while I wouldn't presume to tell anyone here how to play. Many of you are much more accomplished players than I am. Saying you don't stop because you are an AP (and therefore it makes no sense to stop as you have an advantage), seems crazy risky to me. Would those of you who promote not having a stop loss really risk your whole bank roll? Cause that's what you are saying if you really have no stop loss.
You've reached your stop loss and the true count is +10. Do you quit so you can return later to play marginal counts or do you keep playing?
Quote: IbeatyouracesThere is no psychology, luck, voodoo, or anything else involved with my AP play which is about 99.99% of the time. All that matters is the math
I explained the math to my BR once and he said
he was very sensitive and high strung and large
negative fluctuations made him nervous. So I
gave him a break once in awhile.
Quote: IbeatyouracesBig difference between playing with +EV and playing with -EV.
But the psychology is the same, losing is debilitating
no matter which side you're on. Even the staunchest
AP's often collapse under horrific losses. Cathy Hulbert,
the famous poker player, was on Ken Uston's BJ team
in the early days. She says she would never play BJ as
a single because she couldn't take the devastating
losses that happen to all of them. Nobody is Superman,
no matter how much experience they have.
If I hit a loss of X big bets, I would take a break, analyze the hands and then either get out, or get back in again.
Setting loss limits or daily targets -when you have an advantage- is ending up in the "hit and run" territory of 'money management' voodoo.
(I should not I ultimately stopped playing small stakes poker as I realized I rarely had the best of it, and was under bank rolled for the game formats I did have a decent advantage in, and wasn't prepared to slog through to build it up)
however, poker is a hugely more complicated game than blackjack. poker involves psychology, game theory, information hiding, bluffing, implied odds, and a dozen things i am forgetting.
blackjack is a relatively simple game. for a card counter with a decade of experience, it can be played on auto-pilot.
Quote: sodawaterThis is foolishness when adequately capitalized
If you have a $150K BR who cares about a lousy $10K
loss. Everybody has a tipping point where they start
to get nervous after a certain amount of losses. Everybody.
And that effects judgement. And that isn't foolishness.
Quote: thecesspit
Setting loss limits or daily targets -when you have an advantage- is ending up in the "hit and run" territory
Oh no, don't wanna do that, don't wanna violate
any of the set in stone rules made up by the BJ
brethren. The math says you have the edge so
just march on like a good little soldier, no matter
how bad you're getting you're ass kicked. I know
this, if I had to lose $10K I'd rather do it over 3
days than all at once. That would hit me like a hammer
and take me 3 days to recover from.
Quote: odiousgambitthose double downs that lose are just murder. Some of the splits that lose, like splitting a pair of 8s, I take a little better since it is largely a case of doing something to get rid of a terrible hand [a 16]
Quote: aceofspadesLosing doubles is the worst feeling at the blackjack tables (for me, at least).
Somewhere Switch is smiling saying...."Wait, I have a game that can fix that for you! It's is called Free Bet BJ, let me show you how it works". ;-)!
Quote: EvenBobOh no, don't wanna do that, don't wanna violate
any of the set in stone rules made up by the BJ
brethren. The math says you have the edge so
just march on like a good little soldier, no matter
how bad you're getting you're ass kicked. I know
this, if I had to lose $10K I'd rather do it over 3
days than all at once. That would hit me like a hammer
and take me 3 days to recover from.
Just because it would have that psychological effect on you, it doesn't mean that it would have that effect on everyone. You don't see the casino trying to quit when you get lucky and hit a large slot jackpot on them. On the contrary, they offer to comp you a room and a fancy meal and maybe get you to stay for a few more days. Because, they know that variance happens, and there is no such thing as being on a "hot streak" or a "cold streak" and if you keep playing, over time, you will lose the edge multiplied by the total amount bet.
Similarly, if I lose a couple of big hands in a row, I don't sweat it. If I know I am adequately bankrolled and know that I have an edge then I know that the only way to get it back (and then some) is to play more hands, because, in the end, I will win my edge multiplied by the total amount bet. The only thing I would say is, it might be worthwhile to take a step back, examine the game conditions, and make sure that you really do have the edge that you think you have (even after taking into account cover play, possible mistakes, etc, etc). It might be worthwhile to do this occasionally if you are winning too (variance works in both directions, after all) If you are sure you have an edge, keep playing, and the money will come.
If you can't look at it this way then advantage play is probably not for you. You need to look at it coldly, unemotionally, and mathematically. It's not necessarily easy (easier for some than for others) and it's definitely not for everyone.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceYou need to look at it coldly, unemotionally, and mathematically. .
Yes yes, the thread has turned into a lecture
on how to play BJ as an AP. Thats fine, we all
know how it works. The point I'm making is we
all have a place we reach when we're no longer
in our comfort zone. I make that my stop loss.
I choose not to sit there past that point feel sick
to my stomach and question every decision I make.
Maybe some of you are made of stone, more
power to you. I'm not, I'm effected by losses that
make me lose sleep and beat the dog. Oh well.
Quote: EvenBobThe point I'm making is we
all have a place we reach when we're no longer
in our comfort zone.
The point I'm making is that we don't all have that point. Maybe you do, and that's fine. If you do, then I think you are making the right decision by stopping.
I look at things differently, and I don't have that point. I used to, but I'm way past that. I say this not to brag (I'm not even sure that it's a good thing), but to point out that not everyone thinks and feels the same way you do.
Quote: AxiomOfChoice
I look at things differently, and I don't have that point.
You mean you could lose your whole BR and
just shrug and walk away? Do you also strangle
puppies with no emotion? They have a name
for that, you know.
Quote: sodawater
yes, professional APs have less emotional reaction
But they don't have NONE! Nobody is totally
IMMUNE to losses! I don't give a crap who you
are or who you think you are, you have a
'Holy Crap, what have I done!' point. If you don't,
you're not right in the head...
If big losses do effect your ability to continue to play, that is really a part of your game you have to work on. You have to be able to continue to play without things effecting you too much. That doesn't mean, you don't think about it. Of course you do. Obviously this day 1 of 2013 bothered me a little bit or I wouldn't have posted about it. But you can't let it effect your play.
I have had times in the past that an abnormal results in a very small period of time really rocked me to the point that I didn't continue that day, but it wasn't a loss. It was a very quick and massive win in a period of about 20 minutes. I posted about it on several BJ sites at the time in a story I called the 'perfect shoe'. The details aren't important, but the basic idea was that once the shoe went positive enough that I was max betting, which happened pretty early on, I did not lose a hand the remainder of that shoe in some 35-40 hands. I pushed one hand and had one split situation where I won one and lost one, while winning every other hand at max bet. I won over 20 grand in those 20 minutes, which because I had a 6 month losing period later that year, that 20 grand turned out to be almost a third of my years total. A third of your years total in 20 minutes! 20 grand in 20 minutes is a monster win for a mid-level player like myself. I was so rattled in a good way, that I was unable to compose myself and continue to play that day. I think I actually took a couple days to regroup. But in the end that down time was just that. Dead, down time. a lost opportunity to add to the years EV, which is really what it is all about.
correction: for accuracy sake, that monster shoe I spoke of was the second shoe I played at that table. The first shoe was uneventful with the count staying pretty neutral. So I actually won 20 grand in 2 shoes of play which took probably 35 minutes or so, but you get the point.
Chip Reese
To sum up so far, what I'm hearing from the AP's is that "emotion and the psychology of gambling" don't enter into their play as they are professionals and thus don't get rattled when they suffer a big loss, or things are not going their way. Further, that taking a break in a +EV situation is just a wasted opportunity. OK, that makes sense from a purely intellectual standpoint. However, I think the point EvenBob and I were trying to make is it's hard to believe that anyone is that much of a robot. Someone asked if the count is +10 and I've reached my loss limit do I walk away. Yep!! In fact it's happened to me. Some of my worst sessions are with high counts because I'm max betting and lady variance is a heartless bitch. If I lose my session money I'm done. It's just how I enforce my gaming discipline. Does that make me a crappy AP, probably so. That's why I still have a day job. :).....anyway I would humbly suggest that a large loss (as a % of bankroll) would effect anyone negatively, and you might do well to take a break for the rest of the day. I think it was kewlj who took a break after a big win cause he was to jazzed up to continue. I've had that happen to me too. The mental part of gaming effects all of us, even if we don't know it.
Quote: EvenBobYou mean you could lose your whole BR and
just shrug and walk away? Do you also strangle
puppies with no emotion? They have a name
for that, you know.
I could never lose my whole BR. It's called the Kelly Criterion. But, I can lose enough that I need to lower my bet, and then lower my bet, and shrug and walk away.
This has nothing to do with puppies. I don't have the emotional attachment to money. I'll admit that it took some time to get to that point, but, in the end, I can be cold and rational about it. Really understanding the math (not just reading it and paying it lip service) helps.
People make emotional, irrational decisions about money all the time. It's really, really expensive. You can see it in the way that people make purchases, in the way that people invest money, and in the way that people gamble.
Quote: vendman1I'm finding thread very interesting. Disclaimer, I'm married to a psychologist, so maybe I see psych stuff everywhere.
To sum up so far, what I'm hearing from the AP's is that "emotion and the psychology of gambling" don't enter into their play as they are professionals and thus don't get rattled when they suffer a big loss, or things are not going their way. Further, that taking a break in a +EV situation is just a wasted opportunity. OK, that makes sense from a purely intellectual standpoint. However, I think the point EvenBob and I were trying to make is it's hard to believe that anyone is that much of a robot. Someone asked if the count is +10 and I've reached my loss limit do I walk away. Yep!! In fact it's happened to me. Some of my worst sessions are with high counts because I'm max betting and lady variance is a heartless bitch. If I lose my session money I'm done. It's just how I enforce my gaming discipline. Does that make me a crappy AP, probably so. That's why I still have a day job. :).....anyway I would humbly suggest that a large loss (as a % of bankroll) would effect anyone negatively, and you might do well to take a break for the rest of the day. I think it was kewlj who took a break after a big win cause he was to jazzed up to continue. I've had that happen to me too. The mental part of gaming effects all of us, even if we don't know it.
I will say this: if your biggest losing sessions DON'T come when the count is high, you suck at counting.
Now, I'm counting. I always bet according to the count no matter how bad I'm getting my ass kicked. Again, I trust the math.
I'm not on the same level as the true pros around here; not even close. But my mindset is in line with theirs.
Losing sucks. But walking away from an advantage opportunity sucks worse.
parx casino must hit slot machine of 5000
sitting at 4972.40 when I started playing, was stuck a just horrific amount something like 13k and it was at 4994.60 people were swarming non stop like vultures, 13k is a decent hit to me but i wasnt about to walk out and give someone 5k ended up hitting a jackpot for 4k then a couple spins later hit the must hit for -5k to recoup 9k of the 13- could have walked away but the edge is the edge
just like finding 2-1 on blackjack you could have a terrible run but i would play until my body gave out
Quote: kewljI am not comfortable starting a new session which is usually about 15 max bets on a shoe game
I always thought I had enough cash on hand to play properly. I was wrong.
The worst shoe (6d) I've ever had, I lost $1,900, spreading $10-$200. Never thought it could be worse than that.
Now, I know better. Glad I didn't learn this at the tables. I would be pissed if I had to leave a high count because I ran out of cash.
Thanks!
But, I did rack up just over $2100 in EV, during this 7 day period, and by years end, my winnings will catch up to my EV, so I really am off to a decent start of the year. :)
Quote: kewljNow 7 days into 2013, and I have some interesting numbers. 5 winning days and 1 losing day at the blackjack tables (it was that 1 losing day that started this thread). I also had one winning session at the big six wheel
what advantage play at the big wheel am i missing?
Quote: kewljNow 7 days into 2013, and I have some interesting numbers. 5 winning days and 1 losing day at the blackjack tables (it was that 1 losing day that started this thread). I also had one winning session at the big six wheel and have placed 21 wagers on sporting events, winning 16 and losing 5. And my grand total to show for these efforts.... (drum roll)... I am down $8200. With all the positive results I have had since that first losing day, I have only managed to trim my losses from 11 grand that first day, to $8200. lol Truth is, if this 7 day period had occurred at any other time of the year, I wouldn't even notice, but being the first week of the year, my books are showing nothing but red, so it's hard not to notice.
But, I did rack up just over $2100 in EV, during this 7 day period, and by years end, my winnings will catch up to my EV, so I really am off to a decent start of the year. :)
So, that is on pace for a 6 figure year... definitely not too shabby! (Not sure if this is good or bad by your usual standards, but a lot of people work full time for a lot less than that)
How do you calculate your EV on sports bets? Is this some sort of approximation, or are you not including it in your $2100?
Big Six... not bad! I have been on the lookout for profitable situations but I've never seen one.
Quote: AxiomOfChoice
How do you calculate your EV on sports bets? Is this some sort of approximation, or are you not including it in your $2100?
Big Six... not bad! I have been on the lookout for profitable situations but I've never seen one.
I don't calculate EV on sports bets, only games and situations that I play at an advantage. I didn't mean to imply that sports betting is a winning proposition for me. As much as I would like it to be, it is not. I am a net loser with betting sports. Betting a handful of games each weekend is my entertainment. Each $100 wager I make probably costs me a couple bucks in the long run, so it might cost me $20 to bet some games each weekend. That's cheaper than going to a movie and I do get the benefit of the action applied to my players card, earning points.
Those profitable situations on the wheel, usually have to do with females. lol Unfortunately, I got to the game late on this one. Electronic versions are quickly replacing manual wheel. Manual wheels will be a thing of the past in the very near future. Much quicker than any other table game.
