Can't win them all, right?

I have been playing the last four days, probably 12-15 hrs total playing time, and have experienced what I can only rationally call positive fluctuation. Some background, I have been playing about 6 months, read a few books(Thorps, both of Anderson's, 2 of snyders, and wongs),have practiced a lot, studied a lot, and played at least 10 hrs/ wk. I realize that I am merely a rookie if that, but aspire to learn and achieve. I have read a lot about fluctuation while trying to gain info about proper bankrolling. I understand that it can go both ways, I.e. losing x amount of hands or large bets in a row. But my question pertains to the ability to limit negative fluctuation, is it possible? If so, how? I have gone up over 100 units in the last 3 days, which I understand is not much but to me is incredible. I use a 1-4 spread, chipping up an stopping at 4 as long as the count dictates. I realize that every session cannot be a winner, if so how could my casino remain open, but I am interested in learning how to avoid a negative swing wiping out all of my gains. Thank you in advance for any and all advice, I am simply a humble beginner looking to learn as much as I can to turn the odds in my favor.

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I understand that 1-4 is not big enough, but what if I am only playing dd, h17, das , doa up to 4 hands, double any two cards, ? Does that change your analysis?

You didn't mention pen which is a huge factor in determining win rate. I would suggest simulating your game and comparing your win rate to expected to get the best understanding of how things are going.

Penetration is consistently around 75%, occasionally more or less.

Seems you got all the books almost. Can't find my Revere playing BJ as a Business, but has some great charts on expected profits with a spread of 4-1. You really need 8-1 or better to do anything other than grind out minimum wage.

Was it 12 hours or 15 hours? What was your minimum bet ? Win/loss ? Bankroll?

So far you have asked, what time does the 3 O'clock train leaving on track 7 get to Chicago?

Spread bigger if you want to profit.

That being said, also don't bet higher than the Kelly Criterion, and if you really want to minimize downswings, bet under it. 2/3, maybe.

I know the OP is trying to eliminate "negative swings" but a 1-4 spread is going to be your biggest problem, spread more if you can stomach it, and if wherever you are playing will let you without sweating the money. Seems you have a decent handle on the rest. Good Luck.

Quote: Buzzard

Was it 12 hours or 15 hours? What was your minimum bet ? Win/loss ? Bankroll?

So far you have asked, what time does the 3 O'clock train leaving on track 7 get to Chicago?

Total playing time was 13.5 hours, my minimum bet was $25, total win was 108 units, starting bankroll was $2 k.

You could probably get away with 1-4 in that game and come out ok. I'll run a Sim later tonight. $2k is not your total BR is it?

Thanks i would really appreciate that. My current bankroll is 5 k. I use $25 units.

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Overbetting.

I did a quick sim based on the info you provided.
I used DD, 75% pen, $25-$100 spread, $5,000 bankroll.

Good news is you are playing at an advantage of +0.85%.
Bad news is your risk of ruin is 35.2%.

How could I improve my advantage and decrease my ror? Increase my spread and increase my bankroll? Thanks for your advice and help?

I've seen many people on here say that you should never bet more than 2% of your bankroll at any given time, so if you want to stick to that, you're not going to be able to increase your spread at a $25 minimum as $100 is already 2% of your bankroll. You're pretty much stuck where you are if $25 is going to be the minimum bet.

You could increase your spread simply by decreasing your minimum bet, which may also decrease your risk of ruin, even if you have to eat slightly worse Rules (according to BS play) on the front end.

Basically, a big part of your risk of ruin is the amount of money that you are still playing at a negative expectation as you go through shoes that either do not ever have a favorable count, or while you have to bet the Table Minimum into a bad count while waiting for the count to turn. If you can reduce the percentage of your money that is bet against unfavorable conditions (i.e. your minimum bet) while increasing the amount of money, as a percentage of bankroll, that you are betting into favorable conditions, your risk of ruin should decrease.

I would use the BJ calculator on WoO to compare the Rules of the BJ game you are currently playing to the Rules available at other BJ games in your area, but with lower Table Minimums. There are already people who have offered to run simulations for you, so simply provide them with the new bet parameters and the Rules of the game.

It's basically just about exposing as little money as possible to the -EV.

It will be tough if you can't find a double-deck game at the lower levels, but how tough I will leave for our experts here.

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Quote: sodawater

Is this sim assuming perfect strategy? or i18 strategy?

From OP's post he didn't mention anything about playing strategy deviations.

Assuming close to optimal bet spread:

I got MakingBooks #s for no wonging and using hi-lo w/ about 30 indices.

Using the same strat but woning out @ -2(I don't know much about playing DD), You're looking at an EV of +1.68% w/ RoR @ 10.3%. Score 142. Damn fine game. You sure you're getting 75% pen in that DD game? TC conversion in a DD game is gonna be big. I'm generally happy with 75 in a shoe game. I would play with that RoR on that game all day with a BR that low.

Yeah they cut out no about a half a deck, I have experienced some dealers who do a little more and a little less.

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Quote: sodawater

dreamer you still have not mentioned if you are making any count-dependent deviations from basic strategy. are you?

I use the red 7 count and use very basic, in my opinion, count specific deviations. Basically only to decide standing 12 vs 12 and 13, standing 16 vs 10, and taking insurance.

Quote: Dreamer

Thanks i would really appreciate that. My current bankroll is 5 k. I use $25 units.

Is $25 the table minimum? Is surrender offered? I think I know the answer to that. Are there any other rules that weren't mentioned? I have some thoughts that I can get back to you with. It's difficult to think straight here in Connecticut this morning. :-(

The table minimum is $25 and late surrender is no longer offered. Its double deck, dealer hits soft 17, double on any two first cards, split up to four hands(including aces, but only get one card), double after split, 75% penetration, blackjack pays 3:2.

Penetration is the key here. Seeing approximately 78 cards before the shuffle and good rules makes this a very good game by today's standards. I say today's standards because these and better games were a dime a dozen in the good old days. It can be beaten and by how much depends on your goals and how you're willing to approach it.

Are you a recreational player hoping to break even and earn a few comps or are you a serious player out to extract every dollar you can from the casino? If it's the former, build your bankroll, add some indices and more aggressive wonging and continue with Red 7 if you must. I would not be comfortable with a $100 top bet and a $5000 bankroll especially with a less efficient unbalanced count. Be prepared to lose it all.

Let's make some money! I don't care for unbalanced counts especially in single or double deck games. They will get you the money in shoe games but I don't like the lower efficiency in pitch games. Since you're familiar with Arnold's work look into the Zen count. It's more efficient and works well with any number of decks. Take it slowly. With it's increased difficulty it's not for everyone and I caution you that mistakes could wipe out any potential gains. I'm not advocating any particular count rather I'm suggesting considering a stronger count and only then because we're discussing double deck.

There are trip bankrolls and total bankrolls and much has been written on the subject. They can even be tailored to specific games and rules. Some disagree but I suggest a bankroll of 100 times the top bet. Mine is twice that.

My betting spread is whatever I can get away with. Casinos view a game like this as the best thing since sliced bread and yours is probably no different. You must assume that it is is closely watched. A 1-8 spread is the most that I would attempt and a 1-6 spread should yield a nice profit. It shouldn't take too long to determine the tolerance level. That's a $20,000 and a $15,000 bankroll respectively going by my suggestion.

Being limited to a 1-8 or a 1-6 spread doesn't mean you can't tweak things a little more. Learn more indices and wong out more aggressively. I wasn't going to mention spreading to two hands but I guess I'd better. It's a big red flag in pitch games. I'm not going to tell you not to do it but tread very, very carefully.

In summary, to break even do what you're doing and hope the bankroll lasts. To show a profit, increase bankroll and betting spread, add indices, use a more efficient count and wong aggressively. If you don't have the bankroll, you should play lower limits.

Quote: Dreamer

The table minimum is $25 and late surrender is no longer offered. Its double deck, dealer hits soft 17, double on any two first cards, split up to four hands(including aces, but only get one card), double after split, 75% penetration, blackjack pays 3:2.

I did another simulation based on the information you provided above. Plus, I used- Red7 count, spread $25-$100, bankroll $5,000

EV +0.91%
Win/Hour $21.85
Risk of Ruin 32.0%

Optimal bets (Red7):
<= -1; $25
0; $50
=> +1 $100

Thank you for the tips and advice it is greatly appreciated. I have been studying the hi/ low along with the indices within Wongs "professional blackjack" and am planning on switching to that when I get the indices down. At what tc do you suggest wonging out? There are only 2 dd tables where I play so I usually don't move tables often, but I do tend to get a lot of text messages from my wife, or have to go to the restroom when the count drops.

For Hi Lo wong out at -2 to -4 depending on conditions including penetration and the number of players.

For any type of risk venture, I use a term that I have coined, 'DIME zone'. Discipline, Intelligence, Management, Energy. Without a strong grasp of each, one cannot and will not consistently win. Master all, and you will have a greater probability of walking away ahead than the average person. Obviously, there are different odds for different games. I personally will only play craps and poker where I have the greatest probabilities of winning. Good luck... and be disciplined!

Quote: thezone

For any type of risk venture, I use a term that I have coined, 'DIME zone'. Discipline, Intelligence, Management, Energy.

I have coined the term "NAFCIEWAC".

"Not a Fucking Chance I Ever Win at Craps"

....but that's just me.

Quote: MakingBook

I have coined the term "NAFCIEWAC".

"Not a Fucking Chance I Ever Win at Craps"

....but that's just me.

Oh, I thought that was an Indian tribe.

lol... yea, discipline and management are essential in craps.

Quote: MakingBook

I did another simulation based on the information you provided above. Plus, I used- Red7 count, spread $25-$100, bankroll $5,000

EV +0.91%
Win/Hour $21.85
Risk of Ruin 32.0%

Optimal bets (Red7):
<= -1; $25
0; $50
=> +1 $100

Can you do a similar equation for finding out what bankroll he needs in order to have a Risk of Ruin of only: 10%, 5%, and 1/% ?

Quote: PlayHunter

Can you do a similar equation for finding out what bankroll he needs in order to have a Risk of Ruin of only: 10%, 5%, and 1/% ?

Kinda drunk right now, but I think this is correct anyway:
$10k = 11.6% ROR
$15k = 3.3% ROR
$20k = 1.3% ROR
Not exactly what you asked for, but figured this would suffice.

Quote: MakingBook

Kinda drunk right now, but I think this is correct anyway:
$10k = 11.6% ROR
$15k = 3.3% ROR
$20k = 1.3% ROR
Not exactly what you asked for, but figured this would suffice.

More than good enough. Cheers MakingBook !

Quote: MakingBook

Kinda drunk right now, but I think this is correct anyway:
$10k = 11.6% ROR
$15k = 3.3% ROR
$20k = 1.3% ROR
Not exactly what you asked for, but figured this would suffice.

Based on the Approx. formula of RoR ~ exp(-2*BR*EV/SD^2), your numbers are a reasonable estimate.

Quote: tringlomane

Based on the Approx. formula of RoR ~ exp(-2*BR*EV/SD^2), your numbers are a reasonable estimate.

I'm using CVCX, not actually performing calculations myself.

Quote: MakingBook

I'm using CVCX, not actually performing calculations myself.

Yeah, just verifying the program wasn't spitting out garbage. You also mentioned you had been drinking. ;)