aceofspades
aceofspades
Joined: Apr 4, 2012
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December 8th, 2012 at 9:51:18 AM permalink
I edited post - I kept hitting 5 for me and 6 for dealer - it was the opposite - in my rage I typed in wrong - it is now correct, with my apologies (sincerely)


Once again, I am declaring Revel as the place where variance went to die...



Was playing blackjack this morning - lost 3 hands in a row, pushed, then won a hand then lost 4 in a row, pushed a hand, then lost 6 in a row - down appx. $1500
Left the table
Next session - won the first hand then lost the next 5 hands, including a $300 hand that turned into an $1800 as follows:

Dealer: 5,x
Me: 6,6
split
6,6,6,
split
6,6,6,6
hand 1: 6,4 (double) dealt 5=15
hand 2: 6,A (double) dealt 10=17
hand 3: 6,5 (double) dealt 4=15 (4 hands max on splits)
hand 4: 6,5 (double) dealt 7=18

dealer has 6
turns over 2
deals herself 2
deals herself K

BOOM
loss

now down $3300 from two sessions


Third session:

lost first 6 hands (3 hands I had 19, 1 hand I busted, 2 hands dealer pulled 21 to my 20)



now down $4500 with no relief in sight!!!
Buzzard
Buzzard
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
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December 8th, 2012 at 10:25:07 AM permalink
I am not superstitious, but I mean, why are you compelled to play there ? DUHHHH
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
aceofspades
aceofspades
Joined: Apr 4, 2012
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December 8th, 2012 at 10:26:52 AM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

I am not superstitious, but I mean, why are you compelled to play there ? DUHHHH




I know Buzz I know - time to take a walk down the boardwalk
Buzzard
Buzzard
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
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December 8th, 2012 at 10:28:43 AM permalink
Hey, how close in the ocean now after Sandy ?
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
aceofspades
aceofspades
Joined: Apr 4, 2012
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December 8th, 2012 at 10:52:13 AM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

Hey, how close in the ocean now after Sandy ?




Seems to have retreated back to normal
teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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December 8th, 2012 at 11:37:57 AM permalink
Quote: aceofspades


Dealer: 6,x
Me: 5,5
split

What game were you playing if you split 5-5 vs. 6? That is an insane move in ordinary blackjack:

EV of double down is 0.587
EV of split is 0.169

It is easy to have significant "negative variance" when your strategy includes giving away 40% of a unit by misplaying a hand.
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
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December 8th, 2012 at 11:40:07 AM permalink
Sounds like variance is alive, just working southwards rather than north.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Boney526
Boney526
Joined: Sep 25, 2011
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December 8th, 2012 at 12:11:00 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

Quote: aceofspades


Dealer: 6,x
Me: 5,5
split

What game were you playing if you split 5-5 vs. 6? That is an insane move in ordinary blackjack:

EV of double down is 0.587
EV of split is 0.169

It is easy to have significant "negative variance" when your strategy includes giving away 40% of a unit by misplaying a hand.



It seems to me that aceofspades may be a better than average blackjack player, but I don't think that's he's an AP.

Ace, I think you should consider working on your game more before continuing to play at the level you play at. I was thinking the same thing as teliot, you never split 5s in Blackjack. Not to mention that (if I remember right) you use the speed count, and a 1-5 spread, which I doubt can even beat the game if you played perfect Basic Strategy.

Definitely spend some time making sure you know basic strategy by heart. Even if you have a slight edge with your counting system, I can basically guarantee that you're giving it all up with any strategy errors.
BigJer
BigJer
Joined: Sep 16, 2012
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December 8th, 2012 at 12:35:23 PM permalink
Same here. I don't understand why you split fives.
The Terror of Casinos.
aceofspades
aceofspades
Joined: Apr 4, 2012
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December 8th, 2012 at 12:41:41 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

Quote: aceofspades


Dealer: 6,x
Me: 5,5
split

What game were you playing if you split 5-5 vs. 6? That is an insane move in ordinary blackjack:

EV of double down is 0.587
EV of split is 0.169

It is easy to have significant "negative variance" when your strategy includes giving away 40% of a unit by misplaying a hand.




I edited post - I kept hitting 5 for me and 6 for dealer - it was the opposite - in my rage I typed in wrong - it is now correct, with my apologies (sincerely)

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