Variance dead again at Revel
December 8th, 2012 at 9:51:18 AM
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I edited post - I kept hitting 5 for me and 6 for dealer - it was the opposite - in my rage I typed in wrong - it is now correct, with my apologies (sincerely)
Once again, I am declaring Revel as the place where variance went to die...
Was playing blackjack this morning - lost 3 hands in a row, pushed, then won a hand then lost 4 in a row, pushed a hand, then lost 6 in a row - down appx. $1500
Left the table
Next session - won the first hand then lost the next 5 hands, including a $300 hand that turned into an $1800 as follows:
Dealer: 5,x
Me: 6,6
split
6,6,6,
split
6,6,6,6
hand 1: 6,4 (double) dealt 5=15
hand 2: 6,A (double) dealt 10=17
hand 3: 6,5 (double) dealt 4=15 (4 hands max on splits)
hand 4: 6,5 (double) dealt 7=18
dealer has 6
turns over 2
deals herself 2
deals herself K
BOOM
loss
now down $3300 from two sessions
Third session:
lost first 6 hands (3 hands I had 19, 1 hand I busted, 2 hands dealer pulled 21 to my 20)
now down $4500 with no relief in sight!!!
Once again, I am declaring Revel as the place where variance went to die...
Was playing blackjack this morning - lost 3 hands in a row, pushed, then won a hand then lost 4 in a row, pushed a hand, then lost 6 in a row - down appx. $1500
Left the table
Next session - won the first hand then lost the next 5 hands, including a $300 hand that turned into an $1800 as follows:
Dealer: 5,x
Me: 6,6
split
6,6,6,
split
6,6,6,6
hand 1: 6,4 (double) dealt 5=15
hand 2: 6,A (double) dealt 10=17
hand 3: 6,5 (double) dealt 4=15 (4 hands max on splits)
hand 4: 6,5 (double) dealt 7=18
dealer has 6
turns over 2
deals herself 2
deals herself K
BOOM
loss
now down $3300 from two sessions
Third session:
lost first 6 hands (3 hands I had 19, 1 hand I busted, 2 hands dealer pulled 21 to my 20)
now down $4500 with no relief in sight!!!
December 8th, 2012 at 10:25:07 AM
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I am not superstitious, but I mean, why are you compelled to play there ? DUHHHH
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
December 8th, 2012 at 10:26:52 AM
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Quote: BuzzardI am not superstitious, but I mean, why are you compelled to play there ? DUHHHH
I know Buzz I know - time to take a walk down the boardwalk
December 8th, 2012 at 10:28:43 AM
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Hey, how close in the ocean now after Sandy ?
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
December 8th, 2012 at 10:52:13 AM
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Quote: BuzzardHey, how close in the ocean now after Sandy ?
Seems to have retreated back to normal
December 8th, 2012 at 11:37:57 AM
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What game were you playing if you split 5-5 vs. 6? That is an insane move in ordinary blackjack:Quote: aceofspades
Dealer: 6,x
Me: 5,5
split
EV of double down is 0.587
EV of split is 0.169
It is easy to have significant "negative variance" when your strategy includes giving away 40% of a unit by misplaying a hand.
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
December 8th, 2012 at 11:40:07 AM
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Sounds like variance is alive, just working southwards rather than north.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
December 8th, 2012 at 12:11:00 PM
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Quote: teliotWhat game were you playing if you split 5-5 vs. 6? That is an insane move in ordinary blackjack:Quote: aceofspades
Dealer: 6,x
Me: 5,5
split
EV of double down is 0.587
EV of split is 0.169
It is easy to have significant "negative variance" when your strategy includes giving away 40% of a unit by misplaying a hand.
It seems to me that aceofspades may be a better than average blackjack player, but I don't think that's he's an AP.
Ace, I think you should consider working on your game more before continuing to play at the level you play at. I was thinking the same thing as teliot, you never split 5s in Blackjack. Not to mention that (if I remember right) you use the speed count, and a 1-5 spread, which I doubt can even beat the game if you played perfect Basic Strategy.
Definitely spend some time making sure you know basic strategy by heart. Even if you have a slight edge with your counting system, I can basically guarantee that you're giving it all up with any strategy errors.
December 8th, 2012 at 12:35:23 PM
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Same here. I don't understand why you split fives.
The Terror of Casinos.
December 8th, 2012 at 12:41:41 PM
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Quote: teliotWhat game were you playing if you split 5-5 vs. 6? That is an insane move in ordinary blackjack:Quote: aceofspades
Dealer: 6,x
Me: 5,5
split
EV of double down is 0.587
EV of split is 0.169
It is easy to have significant "negative variance" when your strategy includes giving away 40% of a unit by misplaying a hand.
I edited post - I kept hitting 5 for me and 6 for dealer - it was the opposite - in my rage I typed in wrong - it is now correct, with my apologies (sincerely)
December 8th, 2012 at 1:45:47 PM
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Keystone State.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
December 8th, 2012 at 1:49:47 PM
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Jeopardy Question:
Geography:
Technically a Commonwealth, this State is the second admitted to the Union.
Next Category:
Casinos imminently expected to go bankrupt:
This casino is the only non-smoking casino in Atlantic City.
Geography:
Technically a Commonwealth, this State is the second admitted to the Union.
What is Pennsylvania?
That is correct for $300 and better Blackjack Rules!
That is correct for $300 and better Blackjack Rules!
Next Category:
Casinos imminently expected to go bankrupt:
This casino is the only non-smoking casino in Atlantic City.
What is Revel?
That is correct for $400 and horrible Blackjack Rules!
That is correct for $400 and horrible Blackjack Rules!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
December 8th, 2012 at 2:35:06 PM
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Quote: BuzzardHey, how close in the ocean now after Sandy ?
Google Beach Cam - Resorts Casino Atlantic City. It's clearer during daylight hours.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
December 8th, 2012 at 4:37:58 PM
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After the splits/DD's that shoe was lookin excellent, according to your corrected post.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
December 8th, 2012 at 5:03:53 PM
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Oh ok, after your edit it makes much more sense.
I'd still advise you to consider using a more powerful system. Hi-Lo and KO, IMO are not harder than Speed Count, and if they are for you, I still think the effort is well worth it.
Even if you are playing perfect, and the Speed count at 1-5 gives you a slight edge, the variance compared to that edge would be insane, even over tens of thousands of hands.
Given an edge of .2%, and an average bet of 1.5 units, and a variance of 1.5 units per hand (it'd likely be higher) you would have an EV of 30 units over 10000 hands and a standard deviation of 122.5 units.
Change that to a .8% edge and an average bet of 2 and variance of 2.5 you'd end up with an EV of 160 units with a standard deviation of around 158 over 10000 hands. That's still heavy variance but it's far more acceptable.
I made up these numbers, of course, to illustrate a point. You've got to define your goals to determine if the Speed Count is ok with you, but recognize that the edge is tiny if it exists and the variance is crazy compared to the edge. It's impossible to predict when your swings will be up or down but that's the game your playing.
I'd still advise you to consider using a more powerful system. Hi-Lo and KO, IMO are not harder than Speed Count, and if they are for you, I still think the effort is well worth it.
Even if you are playing perfect, and the Speed count at 1-5 gives you a slight edge, the variance compared to that edge would be insane, even over tens of thousands of hands.
Given an edge of .2%, and an average bet of 1.5 units, and a variance of 1.5 units per hand (it'd likely be higher) you would have an EV of 30 units over 10000 hands and a standard deviation of 122.5 units.
Change that to a .8% edge and an average bet of 2 and variance of 2.5 you'd end up with an EV of 160 units with a standard deviation of around 158 over 10000 hands. That's still heavy variance but it's far more acceptable.
I made up these numbers, of course, to illustrate a point. You've got to define your goals to determine if the Speed Count is ok with you, but recognize that the edge is tiny if it exists and the variance is crazy compared to the edge. It's impossible to predict when your swings will be up or down but that's the game your playing.
December 8th, 2012 at 5:12:13 PM
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Ace,
1.) Give up BJ
2.) Contact EvenBob
3.) Begin playing 00 roulette
4.) Win copious amounts of money...perhaps even a small country.
LOL
1.) Give up BJ
2.) Contact EvenBob
3.) Begin playing 00 roulette
4.) Win copious amounts of money...perhaps even a small country.
LOL
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
December 8th, 2012 at 5:22:57 PM
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Good point.Quote: 98ClubsAfter the splits/DD's that shoe was lookin excellent, according to your corrected post.
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
December 9th, 2012 at 12:29:55 PM
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Yea, I've stayed away from Revel for a few weeks now. Something definitely has "tilted" in their favor.
I was at Ballys last night and had a heck of session from my first hand on, but quickly went South.
Started with a $30 direct bet coupon - Dealer 7 and I'm dealt 7,2. Hit for a 6... Hit again for another 6!
Put the $30 won on the felt, A-4 vs dealer 4. Double for a 10... Dealer flips another 4(ugh) but gets a 6, a 2 and another 6... SWEET!
Next hand 8-2 vs Dealer 6... Double for a 3...grrrr... dealer flips a 4(hammer time!) but nope... gets a 6 and then a Jack...
Got another A-4 vs Dealer 4, double for a 3... Dealer flips a 5(uh oh?) Nah, gets a 7 and then a King.
Press my bet to $150... BLACKJACK!!!
Increase to $200 and get 8-3 vs Dealer A! Positive Count, so I insured... dealer has it. So saved the $200.
Dropped the bet down to $50, Get 18 vs Dealer 8... Dealer turns a 6 and catches a 7... Wah-Wah.
Went down to the $15 minimum, 14 vs Dealer 5, He turns up a 10, gets an Ace and then a 5... Yoink!
Colored in up 500 and went to watch the Pacquiao fight.
Came back later and had a decent conclusion before leaving.
Point being, I see how the variance is going every which way in AC and like Mission146 said, Sands PA is the better bet... literally!
I was at Ballys last night and had a heck of session from my first hand on, but quickly went South.
Started with a $30 direct bet coupon - Dealer 7 and I'm dealt 7,2. Hit for a 6... Hit again for another 6!
Put the $30 won on the felt, A-4 vs dealer 4. Double for a 10... Dealer flips another 4(ugh) but gets a 6, a 2 and another 6... SWEET!
Next hand 8-2 vs Dealer 6... Double for a 3...grrrr... dealer flips a 4(hammer time!) but nope... gets a 6 and then a Jack...
Got another A-4 vs Dealer 4, double for a 3... Dealer flips a 5(uh oh?) Nah, gets a 7 and then a King.
Press my bet to $150... BLACKJACK!!!
Increase to $200 and get 8-3 vs Dealer A! Positive Count, so I insured... dealer has it. So saved the $200.
Dropped the bet down to $50, Get 18 vs Dealer 8... Dealer turns a 6 and catches a 7... Wah-Wah.
Went down to the $15 minimum, 14 vs Dealer 5, He turns up a 10, gets an Ace and then a 5... Yoink!
Colored in up 500 and went to watch the Pacquiao fight.
Came back later and had a decent conclusion before leaving.
Point being, I see how the variance is going every which way in AC and like Mission146 said, Sands PA is the better bet... literally!
December 9th, 2012 at 1:59:05 PM
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That's a lot of small cards. Did the other players get dealt all tens?
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
December 9th, 2012 at 2:27:13 PM
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Quote: 1BBThat's a lot of small cards. Did the other players get dealt all tens?
Not ALL tens, but most of em had at least one 10 in their hand and busted with a 10 if they had to pull a card. One guy was pressing the Lucky Ladies bet hard and got Zero 20's. I also did not get a single 20, but a few 18's and 19's and one nice Blackjack on a $150 bet.
But when the dealer got 3 Twenty Ones in a row and the count dropped, I figured I'd leave after getting to my profit floor of $500.
Just showing the OP that the variance is all over the place in AC and Revel's seems to start negative and stay that way.
At least Bally's opened up well and gave me a good start. Seems like Revel wants to make the player's go bankrupt just before THEY do!
December 9th, 2012 at 2:43:15 PM
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Were there any S17 games on the main floor at Bally's?
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
December 9th, 2012 at 2:56:26 PM
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Quote: 1BBWere there any S17 games on the main floor at Bally's?
Not that I saw, guess I should have pointed this out first.
I was given a $30 direct bet coupon, valid only at Ballys.
I was just passing through and decided to use it at a $15 table that was just starting a new shoe. And bought in for $100(to cover any doubles and/or splits)
My first bet was the direct bet(as stated) and the rest were just using those profits(and some from the $100) to make a quick buck.
Did so and left when I felt like taking a break due to the variance with my $500 profit.
December 9th, 2012 at 5:06:56 PM
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PLayed at Taj and Showboat after being down 7k at Revel
Got 4500 back between Taj and Showboat
Sat down again at Showboat last night
Started playing 200/hand
lost 8 doubles and 2 splits in the shoe - there went the 4500 I had recovered
Stopped playing and left this morning down 7k
Overall, after this dramatic loss, for the year I am +10k
Got 4500 back between Taj and Showboat
Sat down again at Showboat last night
Started playing 200/hand
lost 8 doubles and 2 splits in the shoe - there went the 4500 I had recovered
Stopped playing and left this morning down 7k
Overall, after this dramatic loss, for the year I am +10k
December 9th, 2012 at 5:11:33 PM
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Quote: aceofspadesPLayed at Taj and Showboat after being down 7k at Revel
Got 4500 back between Taj and Showboat
Sat down again at Showboat last night
Started playing 200/hand
lost 8 doubles and 2 splits in the shoe - there went the 4500 I had recovered
Stopped playing and left this morning down 7k
Overall, after this dramatic loss, for the year I am +10k
How many hours have you logged this year?
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
December 9th, 2012 at 5:13:52 PM
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Ouch, feel for ya Ace. But there's always next time!
Never liked Showboat myself, only go there and play a little because they Comp my room Any day.
Maybe try Resorts if you're only at Properties on that end of the Boardwalk?
Trop is also pretty good and I've been doing fairly well at Golden Nugget lately, so maybe try there next time?
Never liked Showboat myself, only go there and play a little because they Comp my room Any day.
Maybe try Resorts if you're only at Properties on that end of the Boardwalk?
Trop is also pretty good and I've been doing fairly well at Golden Nugget lately, so maybe try there next time?
December 9th, 2012 at 5:15:03 PM
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Quote: 1BBHow many hours have you logged this year?
Playing hours: about 4 hours per week total ( I usually try and play short sessions )
December 9th, 2012 at 5:15:58 PM
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Quote: BedWetterBetterOuch, feel for ya Ace. But there's always next time!
Never liked Showboat myself, only go there and play a little because they Comp my room Any day.
Maybe try Resorts if you're only at Properties on that end of the Boardwalk?
Trop is also pretty good and I've been doing fairly well at Golden Nugget lately, so maybe try there next time?
Well, I had a nice run at Showboat and Taj to get the 4500 back yesterday afternoon. Went to dinner, sat back down to play a shoe and was immediately dragged down by variance on all those doubles - not much to do about it - it is what it is
December 9th, 2012 at 5:28:00 PM
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Quote: aceofspadesWell, I had a nice run at Showboat and Taj to get the 4500 back yesterday afternoon. Went to dinner, sat back down to play a shoe and was immediately dragged down by variance on all those doubles - not much to do about it - it is what it is
Yea, it's tough to lose those BIG doubles. But another day and another dollar lies ahead!
December 9th, 2012 at 5:29:06 PM
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Quote: BedWetterBetterYea, it's tough to lose those BIG doubles. But another day and another dollar lies ahead!
Thanks Bedwetterbetter - in the moment it feels like your world is collapsing and nothing makes sense!
December 12th, 2012 at 6:50:56 PM
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Good to get alot of that negative crud out of the way and head up the other side.
There are three types of people in this world,those who can count and those who can not.
December 12th, 2012 at 6:53:48 PM
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Quote: mycranGood to get alot of that negative crud out of the way and head up the other side.
Thanks for the positive vibes!
