November 5th, 2012 at 11:58:23 AM
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My wife and I were playing blackjack at the casino the other night and the matching pairs were coming my way, about 2 or 3 every double deck. We were playing double deck with three players, plus the dealer and about midway through the double deck the dealer deals a non-suited pair to the guy to my right, she deals me a suited pair of tens, she deals my wife a non-suited pair as well, and deals herself an 8S. I jokingly stated I was spliting my 10s since I knew her under card was an 8 also and sure enough she turned over the 8S. I thought to myself that midway through a double deck and the dealer deals four matching pairs, which included two suited pairs, had to be a pretty rare occurrence. (Obviously not MegaMillions rare, but pretty rare).
Any thoughts on how rare this may be?
Any thoughts on how rare this may be?
November 5th, 2012 at 12:25:27 PM
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No idea how rare it is, but how'd your split tens work out?
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November 5th, 2012 at 2:14:20 PM
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I get about 1 in 46,187 for four pairs out of four in a two-deck game - and that does not assume that any of the pairs have to be suited, although it does assume that QK (for example) is not considered a pair of 10s.
November 5th, 2012 at 3:32:21 PM
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Quote: ThatDonGuyI get about 1 in 46,187 for four pairs out of four in a two-deck game - and that does not assume that any of the pairs have to be suited, although it does assume that QK (for example) is not considered a pair of 10s.
Roughly about the same as hitting a Royal then. I appreciate the analysis. I would think that adding the suited pairs in there would increase the odds a little since in double deck there is only one other card in the deck being dealt that matches your card.
I didn't spilt the 10s. The dealer did bust, but it could have turned out different had I split.
By the way I did see a new side bet at Sunset Station this weekend I don't remember the name of the side bet, but I believe the pay table was as follows: 60-1 Suited Aces, 10-1 Suited Blackjack, 5-1 Suited Pair, 2-1 any suited cards (I think I missing another payout, but that is pretty close).
November 5th, 2012 at 3:44:17 PM
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Quote: SONBP2I would think that adding the suited pairs in there would increase the odds a little since in double deck there is only one other card in the deck being dealt that matches your card.
I would think that increases the odds a lot. Assuming the pairs are different ranks, I think it'd be 1/(46187*7*7), since only 1/7 of the paired cards would be matched for each of the perfect pairs.
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November 5th, 2012 at 6:01:48 PM
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Quote: rdw4potusI would think that increases the odds a lot. Assuming the pairs are different ranks, I think it'd be 1/(46187*7*7), since only 1/7 of the paired cards would be matched for each of the perfect pairs.
It definitely does up the odds, but OP would probably still be amazed if none of the 4 pairs were suited, so ignoring suits is appropriate, imo.
November 5th, 2012 at 11:23:04 PM
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Quote: SONBP2I would think that adding the suited pairs in there would increase the odds a little.
See, this is the problem with such questions as "how likely was my situation". It all depends on how detailed you want your situation "calculated".
Make it more detailed and the result will be more unlikely. Hence any upcoming number are worthless.
The only correct answer to "how likely was my situation" is: 1.0, because it has already occured (otherwise you wouldn't have asked this question).