Poll

17 votes (60.71%)
3 votes (10.71%)
8 votes (28.57%)

28 members have voted

EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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July 15th, 2012 at 9:07:14 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally




the expected time between returns is infinite!



Thats nonsense talk. One side will get ahead so
far that the other side can never get caught up
even into infinity.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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July 15th, 2012 at 9:20:01 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Thats nonsense talk. One side will get ahead so
far that the other side can never get caught up
even into infinity.

No it is not. Just simple math that most will not understand :)

Again, you are only correct when p does not equal q

when p=q, the walk always returns to zero, always, an infinite number of times.


added: any stats/prob book with random walk will show this
here is one:
Random Walk
I Heart Vi Hart
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
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July 15th, 2012 at 10:01:10 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Thats nonsense talk. One side will get ahead so
far that the other side can never get caught up
even into infinity.



This incorrect, especially with reference to infinity.

If A can get ahead by 100, over time X, why can B not score 100 more than A over time X or 2X or 3X?

Obviously it can, else A could not have got ahead by 100.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
thecesspit
thecesspit
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July 15th, 2012 at 10:02:45 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

It seems to me that because all bets in roulette
equal the even bets, the it would favor the house
for this reason. If you carry R/B, for instance, into
infinity, not only are they never equal, they become
farther apart as time goes on.

You'll find after 10m spins, R/B are thousands of
spins apart. After 20m spins, they are even farther
apart. And so on. And this would favor the player
with the largest BR, which is always the casino.



Actually, the sum total of all players bankrolls is probably bigger than the casino's bank roll, in real life.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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July 15th, 2012 at 10:07:55 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Actually, the sum total of all players bankrolls is probably bigger than the casino's bank roll, in real life.



How so? The casino has a bottomless bank, the player does not.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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July 15th, 2012 at 10:09:43 PM permalink
Quote: jjjoooggg

Has anyone here successfully made money counting over the long term?
I have already lost money. And I'm scared to try again. Can some of yall give your story.

In the past, yes.
I now agree with PGDan, that making money from BJ card counting is dead.

Who wants to travel the world, get kicked out of casinos because you card count, it is very easy to spot a counter these days.
Do not fool yourself, no fun in it left.
The few that make money, they are just the few.

The great majority, you and I included, can do better playing poker... and have more fun.

Just look at all the great counters from the near past, they now work for wall street or write BJ books and/or sell blackjack software.
That tells me just what I need to know.

Hey South Park is on for 2 hours
Pool party!
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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July 15th, 2012 at 10:11:42 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally



Now, back to the topic of this thread.
I say, no, today, card counting does not work.
If a player thinks it does, they have just not played enough hands and are just on the positive side of variance.
If it was true, over 100 million players would be killing the casinos with their BJ play.
That is not happening.



I am in my ninth year of making a living from blackjack play. I played just under 88,000 hands in 2009. 85,755 hands in 2010. 66,975 hands in 2011 (missed nearly 3 months due to illness) and just over 32,000 so far this year, as I have expanded into a second game which has cut down my blackjack play. That's over a quarter million hands in the last 3 and a half years. Prior to 2009, I did not track my play by hands played as I do now, but rather attempted to keep track in increments of time, which I found less accurate, so I switched to tracking hands. From 2004 until 2008 I was based on the east coast prior to relocating to vegas, and was playing lower limit and had more travel time involved, so the number of hands played (which I didn't keep track of then) was probably closer to 40,000 a year. But still that is closing in on half a million hands in my 8 and a half years. At what point can I expect variance to catch up to me?? lol

100 million people aren't killing the casino's by card counting because they don't have the bankroll to do so, not because it doesn't work. Because of the worse games and higher initial house advantage to overcome, there are huge swings involved in serious play today. A very large bankroll is needed to withstand these swings and probably even more important is the mental ability to withstand such enormous negative swings. That is what keeps the number of players who actually do this seriously down.

Last year I hit my high point on June 30. Over the last 6 months of the year I went backwards to the tune of five figures. It actually was much worse than that as I went backwards 33k over a 5 week period before rebounding to finish the second half of the year down (only) 10 grand. While the year in total, was a success for me, making mid/upper 5 figures, it is that type of 6 month downswing that keeps the masses from doing it. Few players have the bankroll or the stomach to play nearly everyday for six months and come away down thousands of dollars. The first such negative variance downswing and they have had enough. In addition to the large bankroll necessary, you have to have money to pay your bills during such a period. I am talking, you better have a hundred grand BR and living expenses.... and be prepared to lose a good chunk of it during a down cycle before things turn around. That is what keeps 100 million people from killing the casinos.

If you need more proof that card counting still work, you need look no further than this one fact. Casinos commonly backoff and barr players suspected of card counting. And in juristictions where they are not permitted to bann player from playing, the use bet restricting and preferential shuffling. If card counting no longer works, why are casinos throwing out and restricting losing customers?
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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July 15th, 2012 at 10:20:17 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj


If you need more proof that card counting still work, you need look no further than this one fact. Casinos commonly backoff and barr players suspected of card counting. And in juristictions where they are not permitted to bann player from playing, the use bet restricting and preferential shuffling. If card counting no longer works, why are casinos throwing out losing customers?

I agree over 99.999% of all BJ counters are underfunded.
I was.
And many still are.

I say there are way better ways to make a living.
Poker and sports betting to name a few.

You are just one of the lucky ones.
(WE also know all gamblers tell the whole truth 100% of the time)

If I was a casino, I take NO risk in my business model.
Card counters can play if they flat bet.

Public perception is card counting is cheating the casino and all the other players that do NOT count.
Even the cops think counters are breaking the law.
Where is the fun in that atmosphere?

Good Luck in your heaven
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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July 15th, 2012 at 10:23:41 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Last year I hit my high point on June 30. Over the last 6 months of the year I went backwards to the tune of five figures. It actually was much worse than that as I went backwards 33k over a 5 week period before rebounding to finish the second half of the year down (only) 10 grand.

I think the numbers are you will only be at your bankroll highs less that 5% of the time.
I would have to open up BJ Attack for the actual numbers.

The vast majority of counters have no clue on the math of BJ
and the bankroll and bet sizes needed to be successful, even though there is lots of info available to learn to do it correctly.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
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July 15th, 2012 at 10:23:56 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

How so? The casino has a bottomless bank, the player does not.



The casino does not have a bottomless bank, no more than the SUM TOTAL OF -ALL PLAYERS- have a bottomless bank. All players. Not just one or two.

Again, how can the sum of 0 EV results result in a positive EV situation for either side? It cannot.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

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