Not a very "sexy" result

I am sorry this is not suitable for inclusion in the version of Penthouse Forum this site has become :P

While in Phoenix, I played the table game World Poker Tour All-In Hold 'Em almost exclusively. I wouldn't say I was degenerate, but I played about once or twice a week, for a few hours each time.

Here are the rules for the game, from the Wizard's site:

# The game uses a single 52-card deck.
# Play begins with the player making an ante bet and two optional side bets
# Player gets two "hole" cards face down, which he may examine.
# Player has two choices, raise or fold.
# If player folds he forfeits his ante bet.
# If player raises he must make a raise bet equal to three times the ante.
# If the player raised the dealer will call with any pair or a blackjack point value of 11 or higher.
# If the dealer does not call then he will fold. In this case the player will win even money on the ante and the raise will push.
# Five community cards will be dealt.
# If both player and dealer are still in the game the higher poker hand will win. If the player has the higher hand both ante and raise will pay even money. If dealer has the higher hand the ante and raise will lose. A tie will result in a push.

I bet the ante for $10 and foregoed the bad bonus bets. This means a bet of $40 per hand most of the time. The house edge is 0.74% on the ante bet, for an expected loss of about $2.20 an hour assuming 30 hands an hour. (The game takes a long time to deal).

Other players are often willing to share their hole card information, so it is possible to reduce the house edge even more, even gain an advantage some of the time. Discount Gambling offers a useful strategy for sharing hole card information.

Dealers will often mispay you on certain hands. Other people will sometimes let you bet on their hand when they would have folded -- a good deal when they have a positive expectation hand.

Seems like a good way to grind out a profit or a very small loss, right? Well, here are my results, even with the card sharing info, more than a few mispays, and back betting:

-$520
-$1,000 (long losing session)
-$900
+$360
+$320
+$325
-$550
-$400
-$460
-$235 (lost a $25 back bet)
+$590
-$340
-----------
net -$2,810

Needless to say the gods of variance did not smile upon me on my time here. Neither did the gods of breaking even. I really have to stop expecting long-term results in the short term.

Now here is the obligatory link to some sex stories.

Quote: teddys

Needless to say the gods of variance did not smile upon me on my time here. Neither did the gods of breaking even. I really have to stop expecting long-term results in the short term.

Sorry you didn't do better.

I pretty much gamble once a year, so that looks long term to me. Come to think of it, it's a good thing I expect to lose money... I've never tried the casino Hold 'em variants. I may do so next trip, though, precisely because they have a lower edge than most other games I play (except for good pay table VP, I guess).

Hope you do better soon.

H'mm... Sorry your results were so dismal. Any analysis of how many standard deviations you are away from the expected results?
If your luck was running so bad, should you have quit playing that game and played something else?

Overall, aside from the staggering losses, do you find that you enjoy the game?

Sorry, teddys, I couldn't resist hotblonde's commentary and linking back to it.

I've faced a similar variance at Craps at my local casino. Basically, have dropped completely dead on the last 7-8 sessions, with no explanation why. I thought about changing my start out technique from my usual three bets (Pass line, then 6 and 8, or if the point is 6 or 8, then 8 or 6 and a come bet) to something else, but that betting technique has worked fine for me in the past.

I've moved on to other games until I get past this late heartbreak. This being the same table where I won $4K on a firebet just before Christmastime. Sigh...