Big losses

Quote: 100xOdds

how is $3 flat/10x odds super high variance?

The coefficient of variance - the ratio of variance to expected loss - is very high with this strategy. Probably much higher than slots, VP, and any other table game out there.

Not that that's a bad thing. When you have an expected loss in gambling, you want high variance: it's one of the best ways to have a winning session.

Quote: dwheatley

The coefficient of variance - the ratio of variance to expected loss - is very high with this strategy. Probably much higher than slots, VP, and any other table game out there.

Not that that's a bad thing. When you have an expected loss in gambling, you want high variance: it's one of the best ways to have a winning session.

so which of these 2 have a higher variance (both 3/4/5/x odds, $10 min):
1) Single large Dont Pass (ie: $25 Dont Pass/150 odds)
2) $10 Pass/max odds + $10 continuous Come/max odds

Quote: Headlock

No category for big losses, so I decided to use this one.

I have lost $8,000 over the past two weekends playing craps. $5 pass line, 10x odds, 2 $5 come bets with 10x odds. So I typically have up to $165 on the table. I play $1 Fire Bet on each shooter, sometimes $5 when I'm shooting. According to the Wizard of Odds site, craps with 10x odds give the house a .184% advantage. With no variance, if I wagered approximately $4.3 million dollars, my loss would approximate $8,000.

So how bad is my luck to have lost this much? How many standard deviations am I away from normal distribution?

I wanted to revive this old thread because Teddys "Blew my bankroll" thread reminded me of my $8,000 loss. I still think that loss was so improbable as to be almost impossible (absent cheating by the casino, but that's another subject), because it happened in such a short time.

Teddys, I can empathize, I've been there. Sounds like we play just about the same strategy. But I'm not going to change the way I play, I will contine PL, two come bets, and 10x to 20x odds. I'm addicted to the Fire Bet. I get bored with place bets, and I don't even like playing 3-4-5x odds.

I have finally realized though, as RaleighCraps has clearly shown, that a $1,000 buy-in is not nearly enough for $5 PL and 10x odds, where I will have $165 on the table most of the time. Too many times I've blown through $1,000 in 15 minutes and left mad. What I should have done, and plan to do from now on, is get another $1,000 out and keep playing. And then I'll cross my fingers and hope those negative variance swings don't last too long!

Check out my blog, I'm actually ahead this year!

Quote: thecesspit

How long were your sessions? The firebet has an edge of 20%, so you are giving up at least 20c for every firebet you make. The $15 in pass line come bets only gives up 21c.

If I assume 4 8 hour sessions, at 150 rolls per hour, you'll get 32 x 150 4,800 rolls. 1 in 9 will be come out rolls for a new shooter (give or take) : 533 in fire bets. Lets say 1 in 8 shooters are you, extra ~$300 in bets. = $833 in fire bets.

You get in resolution of a pass line for every 3.375 rolls = 1422 come outs. Lets double it for the come bets (you'll not always get three up). 2800 bets of $55 each. Total wager of 154,000. House took a whacking great 20% chunk of your stakes.

I never saw this thread. This is a classic.
Player cries "foul" because he did not lose what EV said.

1 post first then again on the $2k bankroll idea by the OP.

Can no one at this site other than goatcabin calculate anything other than HE and EV?
added: theC can and does too.
I know ME can also, but he seems not to get involved in these type of threads.

What about variance for any number of bets and sessions??

The $1,000 bankroll.
OP bets
$5 pass/10X odds and max 2 come bets with a firebet.
Yeah, I ran this also.

My simulations shows the probability of doubling a $1k bankroll or bust trying is successful about 45% of all sessions played.
I scratch my head. Light just turned on. See it? I do.

Let us look at the numbers, not just the EV.

I show a combined HE of .57% with a STANDARD DEVIATION of that HE of...
get ready... it is because of the small session size...
I know the Wizard somewhere told how to calculate this... No one pays attention to math stuff no mo no mo...
unitSD/square root of N is one method

27.15%

So a "whacking great 20%" is right within 1 STANDARD DEVIATION of the HE
LOL

Don't believe it?
Then sim it yourselves and Good Luck to yous.

Everyone that lives by EV only... dies by EV.
They get pissed OFF for NOTHING because what happened is expected to happen by variance.
That mystical, magical mathematical thingy...

"I love variance and she loves me."
Laura Nyro 1969

Quote: 7craps

"I love variance and she loves me."
Laura Nyro 1969

She definitely loves his wife.

Quote: 7craps

I never saw this thread. This is a classic.
Player cries "foul" because he did not lose what EV said.

1 post first then again on the $2k bankroll idea by the OP.

Can no one at this site other than goatcabin calculate anything other than HE and EV?
I know ME can, but he seems not to get involved in these type of threads.

My reply is from 2 years ago. I often talk about variance and EV these days when evaluating bets.

I also have no idea what I meant about " a whacking 20%"... so you should probably point and laugh at my poor explanation :)

an excellent point seldom discussed. But then again some people in here are.... degenerate gamblers. There I said it... and some of them are a bit successful.

Quote: Headlock

Teddys, I can empathize, I've been there.
Sounds like we play just about the same strategy.
But I'm not going to change the way I play,
I will contine PL, two come bets, and 10x to 20x odds.
I'm addicted to the Fire Bet.
I get bored with place bets, and I don't even like playing 3-4-5x odds.

Nice to hear of your great hits on your Jan 5 weekend.
Back to your Craps stuff.

What IS your average odds then? 15X maybe
Specifics would be nice to pin this down.

At only 10X odds, your pass and 2 come bets and $1 Fire Bet with a $2k bankroll stopping at $1k win,
I show is successful about 63% of the time. That seems about right
HE looks good. SD is about $1480 for the attempt.
15X to 20X odds would raise that SD value.

Keep up the good work.

added:theC
you have always been able to pass thru the pearly gates
an A for effort
and A for final grade

Quote: thecesspit

My reply is from 2 years ago. I often talk about variance and EV these days when evaluating bets.

I also have no idea what I meant about " a whacking 20%"... so you should probably point and laugh at my poor explanation :)

I think it is pretty good when these old threads come forward. Some people are still writing the exact same message as they were back then (a few are still right and many of us have learned we had mistakes in our thinking). Others of us, have learned a lot, and you can definitely see it in our messages today, vs from 3 years ago.

THIS is a shot at NO ONE. Just my observations, worthless as they may be at times.

I have lost about 8000€ (10 700 USD) in two days, and actually it was all my gambling bankroll. Back to the normal "non-luxury" life.

I admire you guys for admitting what your losses are.

I got today a generous "loyalty reward" from an online casino I've most played at. I guess I have withdrawn a little more than deposited in their casino. I've never before asked anything like this, but the big losses and the will to gamble (and not having money to do it) inspired me. I opened the CS chat and asked if they could consider rewarding me a little and was thinking of free spins, but after they took a look into my playing records, they decided to give me a 250€ (340 USD) bonus with typical WR. I managed to wager it and still had 150€, which I then lost hunting progressives. :)

Five grand lost at single-deck blackjack... won a grand, lost two grand, lost another four chasing it. Must have logged a quarter million in handle. That'll teach me to play that game, and to chase - I'm just glad I was up enough to more or less afford it (it'd hurt more I think if I weren't in a situation where I can't really withdraw for some time).

Incidentally, does anyone have a guess what the edge is with the Wizard's strategy in Appendix 3c? The calculator says .03748% with perfect composition-dependent strategy, but the Wizard's is clearly non-optimal, only going to six cards and in case of a split not taking the other hand into account.

I dropped a grand on full pay deuces. Small advantages require a big bankroll.

So.

Went on a wicked tilt yesterday at 20/40 and lost nearly two grand. (Plus another few hundred at low-stakes NL while I was waiting, but NL is random enough I basically don't care.) Just kept pumping and pumping toward the end. Should've been a hint it was time to go when a card I folded cleared the far lip - I'd be over a thousand dollars richer if I'd left then.

I feel a little better about it going over my books and finding that, lifetime at this level, I'm still up about 800 (this level is fairly recent), but still... wow. I know it's not much to many of you, and it's not exactly going to break me, but still, I'm reeling.

Quote: 24Bingo

So.

Went on a wicked tilt yesterday at 20/40 and lost nearly two grand. (Plus another few hundred at low-stakes NL while I was waiting, but NL is random enough I basically don't care.) Just kept pumping and pumping toward the end. Should've been a hint it was time to go when a card I folded cleared the far lip - I'd be over a thousand dollars richer if I'd left then.

I feel a little better about it going over my books and finding that, lifetime at this level, I'm still up about 800 (this level is fairly recent), but still... wow. I know it's not much to many of you, and it's not exactly going to break me, but still, I'm reeling.

Ugh. Sorry to hear it.