Caribbean Stud $109,000 winner at Casino Niagara...

After witnessing a straight flush in Caribbean two months ago at Ballys, my wife was playing Caribbean Stud when the Royal hit around 7:30pm last Friday night. The jackpot meter was $108,900 at the time. The Royal occurred at spot #3, two spots down from my wife, who always plays the 1 spot. The Royal was in Diamonds. The dealer qualified, which added about $1,000 to the total.

The winner was a regular at the casino. She tipped all of the players and the dealer $250. The payout overall took about an hour. They had to order special chips, and the payout was in larger "silver" $5,000 chips for the first $100,000. The remainder were in $500 chips. Because we were in Canada, there was no ID requirement nor any taxes taken off the winnings.

After the jackpot, the meter went back down to about $33,000.

With my wife playing about an hour per outing of Caribbean Stud and us making about 20 outings to the casino every year, I estimate that my wife sees about 1,000 hands every year or a total of about 6,000 hands dealt. Therefore, I estimate that my wife sitting at the same table witnessed a once in a lifetime event.

Quote: boymimbo

With my wife playing about an hour per outing of Caribbean Stud and us making about 20 outings to the casino every year, I estimate that my wife sees about 1,000 hands every year or a total of about 6,000 hands dealt. Therefore, I estimate that my wife sitting at the same table witnessed a once in a lifetime event.

No doubt. Especially if the Wizard's dire predictions about the future of that game hold true.

Quote: boymimbo

The Royal occurred at spot #3, two spots down from my wife, who always plays the 1 spot.

I'd sure be playing at spot number three from then on!

Quote: cclub79

No doubt. Especially if the Wizard's dire predictions about the future of that game hold true.

I must have missed that....what are the Wizard's dire predictions?

Quote: FleaStiff

I'd sure be playing at spot number three from then on!

No! #3 has already hit! Doesn't that mean #1 is due?:-)

Hmm... Let me check my 1.41% hoax calculator.... Yes... #1 is definitely due to hit. hehe

Quote: boymimbo

the payout was in larger "silver" $5,000 chips for the first $100,000. The remainder were in $500 chips. Because we were in Canada, there was no ID requirement nor any taxes taken off the winnings.

Did the winner choose to be paid in cheques? It seems a lot of trouble since she would have to ask for change anyway, or take them to the cage. One would think a giant sized check would be easier, and safer.

I am surprised they did not take her ID. Perhaps as a regular at the casino, they already have her information in their system.

Quote: Ayecarumba

Did the winner choose to be paid in cheques? It seems a lot of trouble since she would have to ask for change anyway, or take them to the cage. One would think a giant sized check would be easier, and safer.

I don't know about other jurisdictions, but here in MN winnings at the table must be paid in chips at the table. Then they will help you carry/wheel them over to the cashier, where they'll cut you a check. I watched a similar jackpot go out at Canterbury Park when the Let It Ride progressive was hit. They don't have chips over $100, so that was a LOT of black chips...

Quote: rdw4potus

No! #3 has already hit! Doesn't that mean #1 is due?:-)

If you play enough hands of any poker game, say you play 100-play VP hundreds of thousands of times, would you at some point be "due" for a royal flush?

Quote: ruascott

I must have missed that....what are the Wizard's dire predictions?

He said that the game is becomes harder and harder to find, with many properties down to just one table, if that.

Just curious, was this in Windsor? Or somewhere else in Canada?

Quote: Nareed

If you play enough hands of any poker game, say you play 100-play VP hundreds of thousands of times, would you at some point be "due" for a royal flush?

Well, sure. But there are so many things to consider! What if you pick a machine that has just hit without knowing it? What if you get distracted and hit the draw button at the wrong time and turn your machine cold? What if someone in Jamaica is mad at you and has created a voodoo doll for the purpose of dooming your VP play? Hmmm...perhaps that is why you went hundreds of thousands of plays on a 100 play machine without hitting a royal in the first place? What is the cure for that? Salt over the shoulder? Hail Marys?

Quote: FleaStiff

I'd sure be playing at spot number three from then on!

No! #3 has already hit! Doesn't that mean #1 is due?:-)
Hmm... Let me check my 1.41% hoax calculator.... Yes... #1 is definitely due to hit. hehe
would you at some point be "due" for a royal flush?
Depends on VooDoo Dolls and salt being thrown over your left shoulder with your right hand ...

Oh we do have fun here, don't we?

Consider that thread dealing with the VP machines at the Sidebar having had the payout tables raised. It did nothing to affect the probability of the event taking place, only the profitability of the event. The guy who walked in with a five dollar bill and hit a Royal before he even got his drink was just as much "due for a Royal" as the girl who fed forty three dollars into a machine before she hit her Royal and just as due for a Royal as that poor Advantage Gambler who has been sitting there for five days feeding his entire life savings into the machine and ain't hit a Royal yet!

Now this Caribbean Stud stuff: player position one and three are choices best made on the player's preferences but should not be based on the actual or perceived history of wins and losses at such positions.

Casinos make their money in various ways and I think the primary way just might be that they make people think an event is "due". Well, it is due. Its just as due one spin as the next.

Quote: rdw4potus

Well, sure. But there are so many things to consider! What if you pick a machine that has just hit without knowing it? What if you get distracted and hit the draw button at the wrong time and turn your machine cold? What if someone in Jamaica is mad at you and has created a voodoo doll for the purpose of dooming your VP play?

Ah, But Jamaican voodo artists are as good as Jamaican bobsleders :P

But I was actually asking a serious question. Let's say you deal 5 cards from a deck, do discards and draw, then shuffle the deck and start over. Assuming you did this over and over for millions of times, wouldn't you at some point deal or draw every possible combination?

Or phrased differently, should someone who plays VP every day expect to hit a royal eventually?

Quote: ruascott

Just curious, was this in Windsor? Or somewhere else in Canada?

For some reason I think Windsor doesn't have Carribean Stud. It was probably Niagara.

Edit: DUH ... thread title. :[

Quote:

Or phrased differently, should someone who plays VP every day expect to hit a royal eventually?

Yes! Not even eventually--every 40,000 hands!

Quote: Nareed

Let's say you deal 5 cards from a deck, do discards and draw, then shuffle the deck and start over. Assuming you did this over and over for millions of times, wouldn't you at some point deal or draw every possible combination?

Almost certainly yes. However, there is an infinitisimal chance that one or more combinations will never be dealt. After all, each deal is an independent event. The cards do not come out just because they are "due". Given millions of hands, the odds of any one hand never coming up must be akin to the odds of the earth blowing up due to a chain reaction set off by a butterfly flapping its wings.

Quote: Nareed

Or phrased differently, should someone who plays VP every day expect to hit a royal eventually?

If someone is playing VP and not expecting to hit a royal, it is time to quit....

Actually, see this from the Wizard of Odd's VP probabilities page:

**************
"What is the probability over the course of 1 million hands that there is a royal flush drought extending for 200,000 hands?

(description of formula excluded)

I did a random simulation of 32,095 sets of one million hands. The number with at least one drought was 4558, for a probability of 14.20%.

https://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard/videopoker-probability.html

*******

Wow.. in a sequence of a million hands there's a greater than 1 in 7 chance that you will have a run of at least 200,000 hands without a royal.

Unfortunately, you never know what cards are coming next. If you knew that you would have to "work" through 200k non-royal hands first, you could put in a single coin each time and save the grief. In reality, the odds of hitting the royal are the same the very first time you stepped up to a machine, as the millionth time you played.

Quote: Ayecarumba

Almost certainly yes. However, there is an infinitisimal chance that one or more combinations will never be dealt. After all, each deal is an independent event. The cards do not come out just because they are "due". Given millions of hands, the odds of any one hand never coming up must be akin to the odds of the earth blowing up due to a chain reaction set off by a butterfly flapping its wings.




If someone is playing VP and not expecting to hit a royal, it is time to quit....

Actually, see this from the Wizard of Odd's VP probabilities page:

**************
"What is the probability over the course of 1 million hands that there is a royal flush drought extending for 200,000 hands?

(description of formula excluded)

I did a random simulation of 32,095 sets of one million hands. The number with at least one drought was 4558, for a probability of 14.20%.

https://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard/videopoker-probability.html

*******

Wow.. in a sequence of a million hands there's a greater than 1 in 7 chance that you will have a run of at least 200,000 hands without a royal.

Unfortunately, you never know what cards are coming next. If you knew that you would have to "work" through 200k non-royal hands first, you could put in a single coin each time and save the grief. In reality, the odds of hitting the royal are the same the very first time you stepped up to a machine, as the millionth time you played.

It's funny though, that you have 4x the chance of hitting a Royal than the chance that you'd get the exact 5 cards that you are dealt every hand. Makes you want to keep playing! Every hand you get is an incredible rarity!

Quote: cclub79

It's funny though, that you have 4x the chance of hitting a Royal than the chance that you'd get the exact 5 cards that you are dealt every hand. Makes you want to keep playing! Every hand you get is an incredible rarity!

Which makes perfect sense, since there are four ways to make a royal,and only one way to make any other specific hand (not hand value).

Quote: cclub79

It's funny though, that you have 4x the chance of hitting a Royal than the chance that you'd get the exact 5 cards that you are dealt every hand. Makes you want to keep playing! Every hand you get is an incredible rarity!

Correction: 4X the chance of being dealt a PAT royal. (assuming ur talking about VP)

Quote: f2d

Correction: 4X the chance of being dealt a PAT royal. (assuming ur talking about VP)

I was talking about Caribbean Stud, only because that was what the thread was originally referencing. I hadn't followed the changeover to VP.

Quote: cclub79

I was talking about Caribbean Stud, only because that was what the thread was originally referencing. I hadn't followed the changeover to VP.

Ah, ok, ignore my comment then :)