Went for it
Quote: teddysI believe it. It's not the most unlikely thing in the world (like 30 hands lost in a row...lol). Just bet like a madman. That hedge fund guy won $710,000 at the Bellagio over the course of a weekend just betting huge. Nice that they let you spread to 3 x $10K.
I think billions to one (30 hands in a row) is more likely than trillions to one
I'm just getting your goat, Ace. You unwillingly became the new 18 yo's in a row...sorry. :)Quote: aceofspadesI think billions to one (30 hands in a row) is more likely than trillions to one
Quote: teddysI'm just getting your goat, Ace. You unwillingly became the new 18 yo's in a row...sorry. :)
No worries teddys — I am trying to remember who really bashed me and who was merely joking around with me :)
I now have you on the "merely joking" list in my memory lol
Quote: aceofspadesNo worries teddys — I am trying to remember who really bashed me and who was merely joking around with me :)
I now have you on the "merely joking" list in my memory lol
keep me on your just joking list as well. I have some stories as well that I have never shared as I know that I would end up as a running joke.
Quote: GWAEkeep me on your just joking list as well. I have some stories as well that I have never shared as I know that I would end up as a running joke.
Will do...I think those that seriously attempted to discredit me made no sense as they could never disprove what I said. I informed them they could have asked for the surveillance video from Revel for the 30 hands (apparently tapes from Revel were easy to get...unless you are an NFL commish)
You can say you think the odds are overwhelming that another explanation is far more likely. In the current case, unfortunately, the alternatives put the OP in a bad light.
In aceofspades's case, alternative explanations merely suggest his being mistaken ... I realize this makes him very angry, but still there is quite a difference.
In this case the evidence (the money & print out of the average bet) can add some validity. Without strong very evidence it's hard to believe.Quote: odiousgambitthe problem is, no event that is possible can be deemed impossible by even astronomical odds against, thus I refuse to call such a person a liar.
You can say you think the odds are overwhelming that another explanation is far more likely. In the current case, unfortunately, the alternatives put the OP in a bad light.
In aceofspades's case, alternative explanations merely suggest his being mistaken ... I realize this makes him very angry, but still there is quite a difference.
For all we know there was a glitch miss logged information or something. Progressive win added to the win loss.
Money laundering scheme. IE adding chips to the table. Make it look like you got your illegal money from gambling.
There should be a CTR.
I hadn't realized they had.Quote: 1BBYea, I don't like to rule anything out because it seems impossible. Who'd a thunk that Stefanie Germanotta and Anthony Benedetto would ever perform together?
Quote: AxelWolfIn this case the evidence (the money & print out of the average bet) can add some validity. Without strong very evidence it's hard to believe.
For all we know there was a glitch miss logged information or something. Progressive win added to the win loss.
Money laundering scheme. IE adding chips to the table. Make it look like you got your illegal money from gambling.
There should be a CTR.
Sorry guys, I would have thought the Wizard would find some free time to go to my account to check by now. We exchanged two PM's, but he must be busy. There is no illegal stuff going on here. My Mlife records show a table game winning of $1,029,800 at the Mirage. Of course this is their estimate. I also was playing at the high limit lounge. I am sure they were keeping an eye on me with cameras while I am winning 100s of thousands. The pit bosses also escorted me to the cage every time I colored up and verified with the cashier exactly how much I was depositing. No way any money laundering was happening. I am just surprised they didn't kick me out of the table while I was winning that much. In fact, they have invited me back to invites only poker tourneys and villa promises. I am a bit confused that al though I have 2,248,035 tier credits, I am still a platinum member, not a noir. Al though I hear noir is not much different than being a platinum member.
Quote: AxelWolfI hadn't realized they had.
I saw that on CBS Sunday Morning as well
Quote: SiegfriedRoySorry guys, I would have thought the Wizard would find some free time to go to my account to check by now. We exchanged two PM's, but he must be busy.
Why don't you just post a screen capture of your Mlife account with your name and account number blacked out?
Quote: drjohnnyWhy don't you just post a screen capture of your Mlife account with your name and account number blacked out?
because people accused him of doctoring it. I think it would have been easier for him to do that and then have Wizard log in and verify it.
Quote: GWAEbecause people accused him of doctoring it. I think it would have been easier for him to do that and then have Wizard log in and verify it.
He could also take a video of himself logging into his account with a piece of paper or tape stuck to his computer screen to block out personal info.
What if, because of too many whiskeys or pure apathy for the money, one or two of those hot streaks included a massive bet.
Imagine working $2,000 up to $6000 or so and saying "screw it" and betting it all once or twice.
Then perhaps one of the later buy ins of "a couple thousand" was actually 20,000?
Seemingly small tweaks to the story (whether on purpose or not) can change the likelihood by a couple of orders of magnitude, no? I mean, I'm about 100x more likely to believe a 1-in-a-10-billion story than a 1-in-a-trillion.
yesQuote: DicePhDSeemingly small tweaks to the story (whether on purpose or not) can change the likelihood by a couple of orders of magnitude, no?
The Grandma at the Craps table comes to my mindQuote: DicePhDI mean, I'm about 100x more likely to believe a 1-in-a-10-billion story than a 1-in-a-trillion.
This looks to me to be a male thing
look at me!
look!
look!!
look, look, at me, what I did!
hehehe
not impressed one bit, that is me
OP seems to not ask a question about his chances of winning
so no math
ahhhhh
but he also fails to prove how much he has lost playing Blackjack over his lifetime
I say way more than the $1 million he won
that male ego thing
look!
look at what I did!
thank you for sharing
Sally
Quote: mustangsally
that male ego thing
look!
look at what I did!
thank you for sharing
Sally
Dammit +1 Sally. The OP (Just like me) arrived here trumpeting his incredible good luck. But then, that is what that sub-forum is for.
My own big win post where I turned £150 of bonus into £6k was met with incredulity, so I can hardly call the OP out for his incredible win. We each invited forum custodians to see the evidence.
I'm on the fence as to how fully the OP has posted the truth, falling somewhat towards 'I doubt it'. Even with my good run, I was never far off a bad streak and the OP seems to have had none at all on his long upward streak. His attitude also seems just wayyy too macho. At least I only ran my luck until i was able to check out. No way I can see a player thinking 'Oh well it's $100K, $200K, $500k, $750k of house money so I'll take the big risk of throwing that back at them in the hope of 1 million. If he truly treats such big sums with such disinterest, I can't help feeling that he has before, and will again, play VIP tables and silently slip the money back across the table.
Quote: WizardI've been asked to log into the Mlife account for SiegfriedRoy. The logon I was given does show a net win in 2014 of $1,034,002.00.
There you go, folks. He was telling the truth. Maybe we can stop picking apart every trip report now.
Quote: DeucekiesThere you go, folks. He was telling the truth. Maybe we can stop picking apart every trip report now.
So what proof would I need to submit — you were one of the most vociferous opponents in my Vegas trip report — I guess you have woken up to the reality that you were wrong
look what I did!Quote: DeucekiesThere you go, folks. He was telling the truth. Maybe we can stop picking apart every trip report now.
yea!
why do we care again?
still, nothing like what Archie Karas did
"when he turned $50 in December 1992 into more than $40 million by the beginning of 1995"
Sally is nice
Quote: WizardI've been asked to log into the Mlife account for SiegfriedRoy. The logon I was given does show a net win in 2014 of $1,034,002.00.
damned by faint praise? faint analysis anyway. nothing to analyze I suspect
Quote: mustangsallylook what I did!
yea!
why do we care again?
still, nothing like what Archie Karas did
"when he turned $50 in December 1992 into more than $40 million by the beginning of 1995"
Sally is nice
I can agree with you that what Archie did was legendary. He also did start with a 10K loan and went on a blaze. You do have to keep in mind that he played at the binions when the owner of the casino never denied the max limit on any action. Archie was betting hundreds of thousands a hand in BJ and in craps which led him to get to an impressed $40M. I also asked the pit boss if I can bet more than $10K and they said for BJ, I couldn't. The only way was to set that up with my host and get my limit approved by the Mlife execs. I said "forget it" and I pressed. Now, I have been reading all your posts and trip reports, and I never doubted anyone's claims because I was always rooting for the players. I have ALWAYS enjoyed all the win stories I was reading, as every single feat was against "the man" (casino). I never bothered to make an account in the past because I really didn't have much to write home about. As to your presumptions of how much I have lost in the past...I have a net win/loss of about $10K over 7-8 years. I never played big. Will I give it back? No, because I used to live in vegas for 4 years and I know better to never play like how I did now that I have met my goal. 90% of my winnings are secured with my financial advisor (I can't pull it out unless for taxes). I must say my investment with my FA is not doing that great, but I am okay with that since the market has its ups and downs. Maybe I am better off investing it on more BJ plays (JK). I only have about 40K in liquid in my checking account, with only $10K held for future gambling and vegas trip budget. I am looking forward to going back being a small time red/green chipper.
Mustangsally, al though you are just being a hater, that is okay by me. I will still root for you and any other players if they write a post on a great win.
Quote: aceofspadesSo what proof would I need to submit — you were one of the most vociferous opponents in my Vegas trip report — I guess you have woken up to the reality that you were wrong
If you recall, I defended you until you busted out the "If you don't believe me, you can't believe in God" argument. You blew your credibility with that.
you have to be so far off the right path with your calculations, imo,Quote: odiousgambitQuote: MidwestAP
Trip/Session Casino Starting Bankroll Buy-In Cashed Out Profit Ending Bankroll 1/1 Venetian $5k $2k + $2k $16k $12k $17k 2/1 Venetian $17k ($4k for trip) $2k + $1k $13k $12k $27k ($14k for trip) 2/2 Venetian $27k ($14k for trip) ?? ?? $10k $37k ($24k for trip) 2/3 Mirage $37k ($24k for trip) $5k $200k $195k $232k ($219k for trip) 2/4 Mirage $232k ($219k for trip) ?? ?? $218k $450k ($437k for trip) 2/5 Mirage $450k ($437k for trip) $100k $360k $260k $710k ($697k for trip) 3/1 Mirage $710k $2k $290k $288k $988k
the wizard can probably come up with the odds of this happening, based on the chart
*roughly* it looks like, *very* generously, just to throw guesses around,
1/20 * 1/20 * 1/10 * 1/1000 * 1/100 * 1/5 * 1/10000
= 0.00000000000005
one in 20 000 000 000 000 [20 trillion]
generously
where does that place you I ask
without knowing the OP path that he took except later he was betting big, let us use a basic Gambler's Ruin formula for this to get an estimation,
OH, OH, maybe set a low and high side...
as the OP says he was after the cool million
bank/bank+profit
1/20
is more like
5 into 17 = 5/17 = 0.29411764705882352941176470588235
let us round down to 25% or 1/4 because of house edge
that is a factor of 5
now he turned 17 into 27 (no matter the buy-in as if he would have lost he would have went into all his bankroll)
=17/27 = 0.62962962962962962962962962962963
let's go down to 60% or 1/1.67
1 / 4* 1.666666667* 1.428571429* 10* 2.173913043* 1.666666667* 1.428571429
complete the process your way with more accurate results
my way:
0.0020286
1 in 492.9508035
NO WAY!
SALLY CAN"T DO IT THAT WAY!!!
yawn...
how about this way instead
4/16 and round down a few for each step
3/13
3/10
5/200 keep going
3.75E-09
1 in 266,666,666.67
better?
this happens almost every week if not every week
yawn...
I did say "thank you for sharing" and that is not hate!
how rude and offensive!
Sally is nice
more male egos gets scratched
and that is a good thing and not hate
Maybe I will post a proper trip report for my Oct trip when I am going to a CET property as a red/green chipper. I still don't know how to post pictures even with the formatting codes. I am not much of a computer guy.
Quote: DeucekiesIf you recall, I defended you until you busted out the "If you don't believe me, you can't believe in God" argument. You blew your credibility with that.
Deuce - you are still not getting the point of why I said that ( which I believe I also explained int he thread ).
Here it is again:
If my one in a billion chance is unbelievable to you…then how can the existence of "God" be more believable?
Quote: aceofspadesSo what proof would I need to submit — you were one of the most vociferous opponents in my Vegas trip report — I guess you have woken up to the reality that you were wrong
Two forms of ID one of which must be photo ID issued by the government, I also would need to see your tax filings for the last three years, Oh I almost forgot... were gonna need to draw some blood.
Quote: mustangsally
how about this way instead
...
1 in 266,666,666.67
well, you lost me. Of course I admitted to making wild guesses. I will accept some one in 266.7 million or so as being more accurate.
the thing is, unusual events happen. Unusual events in a sequence always add up to eye-popping unlikelihood.
thank you for askingQuote: odiousgambitwell, you lost me.
It was planned
taking the data in the table
you start with 1/20 for the first win
using this formula (for a fair game)
starting bank / starting bank+profit = success to turn $X into $Y
example
1 and turn it into 2
in a coin toss game.
easy right?
50% chance of success to turn 1 into 2 or 1/2
turn 2 into 4 = 2/4 = 50% (of course we are not considering how long this would take)
so 4k cashed out 16k = 4/16 = .25 or 25% or 1/4
but BJ is a house edge game so the chances of doing it must be less than 25%
so say .20 (maybe .22 works too (two))
the next session was this:
turned 3k into 16k = 3/16 = 0.1875
(everyone knows what 3/16 is)
I round down to .15 (I could have used .16)
so far
0.2 * 0.15 = 0.03 =
abouts 1 in 33
you show 1/20 * 1/20 or 1 in 400
and one can continue on
as I already deleted my worksheet without saving it one time
that is why I (eye) say you must be so far off
but that is OK too, as we can easily do a few different calculations to find a range of possible probabilities for the event
as I done
still having fun
now dinner and dancing
both do wonders for my figure
Sally is nice
Quote: aceofspades
If my one in a billion chance is unbelievable to you…then how can the existence of "God" be more believable?
I can't believe I'm even dignifying this with a response (which I shouldn't be because this a DT topic if ever there was one).
I see evidence of God's existence every day, in the changing of the seasons, in the cycle of life and death, in virtually every aspect of my day to day living, I feel God's presence. I do not consider it a one in a billion chance.
Quote: DeucekiesI can't believe I'm even dignifying this with a response (which I shouldn't be because this a DT topic if ever there was one).
I see evidence of God's existence every day, in the changing of the seasons, in the cycle of life and death, in virtually every aspect of my day to day living, I feel God's presence. I do not consider it a one in a billion chance.
So very quaint
I really, really want to say don't be dumb Silly Sally. He is and was a card cheat of the worse kind. Not hole carding, or gray aria... no, no not anything but MARKING Cards and blatant cheating.Quote: mustangsallylook what I did!
yea!
why do we care again?
still, nothing like what Archie Karas did
"when he turned $50 in December 1992 into more than $40 million by the beginning of 1995"
Sally is nice
I'm not judging I'm just saying don't use him when comparing this kind of stuff.
I had zero doubt his account would say such ( I made a side bet, it would show what he claimed , if u checked ).Quote: WizardI've been asked to log into the Mlife account for SiegfriedRoy. The logon I was given does show a net win in 2014 of $1,034,002.00.
Very few people say, "I have proof and I will let the Wizard verify" unless they know in advance it would be shown to be as stated. (It's all too smooth)
This is meaningless to me. What's the average bet ? Never mind that, I will pay $50 to the site ( add it to a contest ) If he can Show In person or video of an ATM amount over 500k. Or somehow provide he in fact has at least 500k somehow. A notary of my choice, or a respected member.
I recall Bob N is trying a case now, where family members were playing on thee guys players card.
Someone could bet large amounts without a card, lose, then use a card be rated, break even but still show a win.
SHOW ME THE MONEY ! How about a CTR? He had to have a CTR cashing in.
that is, why make a claim like this without more support in facts?
At first, the only thing to do, as a gentleman, is congratulate the man. Pretty soon [with most posters, in the first post] you kind of feel like you need to let the guy know you aren't gullible. So you do that.
In later posts, the need to be kind and congratulate evaporates. The only thing to post is doubt. Or you can quit posting, but what is the point of the thread if we are to quit posting? So the thread in reality just becomes a contest to see if late posts can make the OP admit he was joshing.
I will post no more. OP, I'm sorry but your efforts here have not made me go around saying, "hey did you see where that guy started with a few thousand and wound up with a million playing Blackjack?"
However it was that you wound up with a million dollars showing, congratulations, sir.
Quote: AxelWolf
Someone could bet large amounts without a card, lose, then use a card be rated, break even but still show a win.
SHOW ME THE MONEY ! How about a CTR? He had to have a CTR cashing in.
under that premise, he would have a million so he could easily show you an ATM.
I think it is either 1 of 2 things.
1. He actually did win this money. I guess it is possible. Who was that person on here that played in the MGM mansion and won huge while black out drunk?
or
2. There was a glitch in the reporting system that the OP decided to have some fun with.
Quote: mustangsallylook what I did!
yea!
why do we care again?
still, nothing like what Archie Karas did
"when he turned $50 in December 1992 into more than $40 million by the beginning of 1995"
Let me ask you a question. Does it bring you joy to make comments like the comment you made here?
I went back to read some of the first interactions that I had with you.
I had a few unpleasant emotions reading what you wrote.
I see a pattern, and in my very expert opinion, it's not apophenia.
Quote: GWAEunder that premise, he would have a million so he could easily show you an ATM.
I think it is either 1 of 2 things.
1. He actually did win this money. I guess it is possible. Who was that person on here that played in the MGM mansion and won huge while black out drunk?
or
2. There was a glitch in the reporting system that the OP decided to have some fun with.
No glitch. I know who you are talking about. The guy who turned $3k to a quarter million at the MGM. Al though he did pull out another $3k in markers because he was getting close to zero, he never ended up using his latest marker buy-in because he went on a hot streak. Unfortunately, my ATM will not show over 40K. Who the heck keeps all that money in a low yield savings or checking account. Most of my money after I bought my dad a car is invested. ATMs won't show you my investment balances.
Quote: SiegfriedRoyQuote: odiousgambitJust observing my own thoughts, I have to come around to "what's the point?"
that is, why make a claim like this without more support in facts?
At first, the only thing to do, as a gentleman, is congratulate the man. Pretty soon [with most posters, in the first post] you kind of feel like you need to let the guy know you aren't gullible. So you do that.
In later posts, the need to be kind and congratulate evaporates. The only thing to post is doubt. Or you can quit posting, but what is the point of the thread if we are to quit posting? So the thread in reality just becomes a contest to see if late posts can make the OP admit he was joshing.
I will post no more. OP, I'm sorry but your efforts here have not made me go around saying, "hey did you see where that guy started with a few thousand and wound up with a million playing Blackjack?"
However it was that you wound up with a million dollars showing, congratulations, sir.
Odiousgambit, well said. A sincere thanks, you are very logical. I have no incentive to lie. I also have no incentive to go through all sorts of circus proving to axel regarding how I got to my million. I am sure if we met in Vegas at the Mirage and let the pit bosses call out my average bet and what I had started with, you would maybe then believe me. However, I really don't have much of an incentive to expose who I am. I am already getting pounded by the people I was with at the bachelor party for loans and "business opportunities." I have posted here on "Big Win" because essentially that is what happened on my two trips, and that is what that forum is for. Getting a notary? Haha come on. That is just silly.
Just know that at any Mlife property (I've learned) they will not let anybody off the streets play more than $10K a hand up to 3 hands per swing. You'd have to be a mega millionaire who is a frequent whale and the casinos have to set up a reserved table with special limits to let you play more than 10k in BJ. I am a nobody. Just a random 31 year old who got lucky and kept going.
I feel sorry for your future gambling life. I can guarantee that playing red chip BJ will no longer be fun. I have basically moved up to green chip BJ and red chip for me just seems ho hum. I can imagine how I would feel if I were betting 1000s then switched back to red.
Hey I offered $50.Quote: SiegfriedRoyI also have no incentive .
If true, you can be happy knowing it is, you have a million reasons.
No doubt most people find it suspicious at best. I always assumed no extra evidence would be given.
Carry on.
Quote: AxelWolfHey I offered $50.
If true, you can be happy knowing it is, you have a million reasons.
No doubt most people find it suspicious at best. I always assumed no extra evidence would be given.
Carry on.
Thanks for the offer Axel, but I will pass. I really don't have much to gain from going through hoops to prove it. If the Wizard asks me, I'd be willing to meet up with him and showing him my investment account on my phone app. But I doubt he'll have any interest or time in doing that. I hear he is doing well after the sell of WOV website. Great for him. I am truly happy for him and his hard work.
yea I should have added a smiley face. $50 its not worth showing proof of $1000 let alone 1 Million. I hope your story is true, you've been very respectful.Quote: SiegfriedRoyThanks for the offer Axel, but I will pass. I really don't have much to gain from going through hoops to prove it. If the Wizard asks me, I'd be willing to meet up with him and showing him my investment account on my phone app. But I doubt he'll have any interest or time in doing that. I hear he is doing well after the sell of WOV website. Great for him. I am truly happy for him and his hard work.
Certainly this story would be newsworthy. I'm surprised no one has attempted to get an interview(no way people at the casino are not talking about this) it would be great pr for Vegas.
