Hi all, specially Mike and Wizard

I already asked this questions on the original thread Bluejay started 2 years ago, but I'll ask here as well because maybe some of you know the answers:

1) Has the $1000 reward to find exploits in the betting system challenge offer expired?

2) What's the max number of spins that I can sit out to wait for a certain condition?

3) Is it acceptable to switch games at any given time?

Thanks!

Quote: blaxius

I already asked this questions on the original thread Bluejay started 2 years ago, but I'll ask here as well because maybe some of you know the answers:

1) Has the $1000 reward to find exploits in the betting system challenge offer expired?

2) What's the max number of spins that I can sit out to wait for a certain condition?

3) Is it acceptable to switch games at any given time?

Thanks!

1. Maybe?
2. It doesn't matter. Past results have no bearing on future results
3. I don't know, but see #2 above...

Quote: blaxius

with the systems that I was using that had a 16% chance of winning and attempt, I would have 0,00615232472362199% chance of winning 11 times out of 20. Is that correct?? The formula I used was the binomial distribution: P(X=20)= (20(n) choose 11(k))(4/25)^11(1-4/25)^(20-11).
I don't understand much of it, anyone here can correct me if I am wrong?

Assume your numbers are correct, so you know that you have less than 1% chance of winning
the challenge (winning $30,000), the other 99% you lose $3,000 (this challenge is not free! ).
I don't consider that's a good bet. In fact, much worse than most casino games.

Using the Binomial Calculator

Probability of success on a single trial 0.16
Number of trials 20
Number of successes (x) 11

Cumulative Probability: P(X >= 11) You want this one. 11 or more.
7.14485560689981E-05 or
0.00007144855607 or 1 in 13,996

with a 50% Probability of success on a single trial >=11: 0.411901473999023
.5247 Probability of success on a single trial about a 50/50 chance

You have more work to do!

Quote: pokerface

Assume your numbers are correct, so you know that you have less than 1% chance of winning
the challenge (winning $30,000), the other 99% you lose $3,000 (this challenge is not free! ).
I don't consider that's a good bet. In fact, much worse than most casino games.

I don't consider that a good bet either. I was just trying to see how far I was from having good odds against the challenge.

Quote: mustangsally

Using the Binomial Calculator

Probability of success on a single trial 0.16
Number of trials 20
Number of successes (x) 11

Cumulative Probability: P(X >= 11) You want this one. 11 or more.
7.14485560689981E-05 or
0.00007144855607 or 1 in 13,996

with a 50% Probability of success on a single trial >=11: 0.411901473999023
.5247 Probability of success on a single trial about a 50/50 chance

You have more work to do!

Thanks! I know I do, but I like coding even if it's just for fun more than studying

Quote: rdw4potus

1. Maybe?
2. It doesn't matter. Past results have no bearing on future results
3. I don't know, but see #2 above...

1. I hope it does... even if I find a way to have better odds than 10:1 on winning the challenge, I still wouldn't risk $1000, it's too much for me.

3. In the original thread, when Bluejay was trying to find exploits on his challenge, someone suggested building a big bankroll on roulette and then moving to a baccarat table that has better house edge. Bluejay took that into account. I said before that I was aiming at winning first $27.000 and then flat betting, but if I can move to a baccarat table as someone suggested once then I should aim at winning $10.060 and then switching games. Back when I tried two systems that reached $27.000 without hitting $0 bankroll 16 out of 100, I wrote down the maximum I achieved at each try, and 31 times I reach more than $15.060. That almost doubles my chances.

2. I know I might be falling into the gambler's fallacy here, but if an event has a chance of not happening 1 in 1.000 and it did not happen twice in a row, I would rather start my progression at that point. Again, I know that I might be falling into the gambler's fallacy and I know that what you stated is correct, but I would like to know anyways how many spins I am allowed to wait for.There is another reason for that waiting as well, but it is hard to explain and probably senseless, so I won't say it.

Quote: blaxius

2. I know I might be falling into the gambler's fallacy here, but if an event has a chance of not happening 1 in 1.000 and it did not happen twice in a row, I would rather start my progression at that point. Again, I know that I might be falling into the gambler's fallacy and I know that what you stated is correct, but I would like to know anyways how many spins I am allowed to wait for.There is another reason for that waiting as well, but it is hard to explain and probably senseless, so I won't say it.

Don't the rules say that you may sit out as many spins as you like, but that the challenge completes after 200,000 bet resolutions?

Quote: rdw4potus

Don't the rules say that you may sit out as many spins as you like, but that the challenge completes after 200,000 bet resolutions?

Quote: https://easy.vegas/gambling/betting-system-challenge

It's fine for your system to sit out sometimes to wait for "streaks" or other conditions, but 200,000 rounds must be wagered on for each test

That's all it says about it in the rules, but it does not say how many spins you can sit out. Since Bluejay was trying to make this a more realistic challenge, I suppose I am not allowed to wait for 1000 spins to place a bet.

Quote: blaxius

That's all it says about it in the rules, but it does not say how many spins you can sit out. Since Bluejay was trying to make this a more realistic challenge, I suppose I am not allowed to wait for 1000 spins to place a bet.

Why not? In a real casino, the wheel spins between visits:-)

Quote: rdw4potus

Why not? In a real casino, the wheel spins between visits:-)

I am not sure, maybe Bluejay has a different opinion, and he has the last word on this. Coding something waiting for an unlimited amount of time when it's against the rules would be a waste of time.

Quote: blaxius

I am not sure, maybe Bluejay has a different opinion, and he has the last word on this. Coding something waiting for an unlimited amount of time when it's against the rules would be a waste of time.

Try it anyways, as you should find it makes zero difference, and coding a "wait until" routine shouldn't be hard, especially as all you'll need is to add an "OR" statement to stop waiting after time/spin X.

I am assuming your RNG is working as expected. I've fallen into traps before with bad seeding of the RNG so multiple runs ended up looking the same.

Quote: thecesspit

Try it anyways, as you should find it makes zero difference, and coding a "wait until" routine shouldn't be hard, especially as all you'll need is to add an "OR" statement to stop waiting after time/spin X.

I am assuming your RNG is working as expected. I've fallen into traps before with bad seeding of the RNG so multiple runs ended up looking the same.

You are right, I'll code it. And actually, I'm using a software that reseeds automatically every new "session" I start, so I should not worry about that.

Guys, I have been waiting for an answer from Bluejay, buy he did not answer, so I will tell you one of my theories and I would like you to tell me what you think about it:

One of my original ideas was betting only on one number. The chances for that number to show up is 1/37. But, having a bankroll of 5000 and making the minimum bet to cover the previous loses, you could bet 150 times to the same number. having a minimum winning. The chances of a number not showing up after 150 times is {1-((36/(36+1))^H150)}, about 98,3133858935548%. As you win, your bankroll increases and you can bet more than 150 times to the same number, up to 278 times (any further would be betting more than $5000, which cannot be done in this challenge).

So, if I were allowed to wait as many spins as wanted, then I would wait until any number does not show up after X times, which would greatly reduce that 98,3133858935548%. And here I am talking about the chances of seeing an event happen in X spins. After each win, I would increase the spins in which any number does not show up, and I would be able to increase the number of times I can bet to the same number, making the chances of losing smaller.

I have not tried this 100 times as I usually do because this is a lot longer, but I did try it a few times and I have been successful.

Do you understand my idea? If you do, how incorrect is it?

Thanks guys!

Quote: buzzpaff

" I wonder what games the casinos will use as replacements for roulette now that it has been beaten? "

That is exactly why I always limit my daily winning sessions to $10,000 or less. However, due to poor health, I am retiring.
as a special favor to forum members I will sell my system for only $49.47. PM me for details and YES I do accept PayPal.

will you take personal check?

Quote: rainman

What is this 30k challenge?

Go to a casino near you, and walk out with a few millions. That's the real world challenge.