Whiskeyjack
Whiskeyjack
Joined: Nov 4, 2010
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December 15th, 2011 at 12:03:53 PM permalink
How, it's simple,

The truth is if you play by the fixed rules of the game as set out you must win with a system. Why is that not possible, because casinos change the rules. Ie there is no rule in craps that sets a house limit. That is a house rule not part of the game of craps. If it were a fixed rule all house limits would be equal. They are not, so they can not be fixed rules of the game.

To be correct in saying no system will work you must use the added on non-fixed modifyed rules. Take away those rules and the "system" can't loose.
Dween
Dween
Joined: Jan 24, 2010
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December 15th, 2011 at 12:14:08 PM permalink
-Dween!
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy 
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December 15th, 2011 at 12:20:03 PM permalink
That would be true, except for one thing - you are implying that "your bankroll is limited" is a "rule".

If you had an unlimited bankroll and unlimited time and the ability to bet whatever amount you wanted, then even a Martingale system will work eventually, just as if you put six monkeys in front of six typewriters, eventually they will write Hamlet.

Of course, "eventually" is a very, very long time - even if you had one billion monkeys typing at 100 characters per second, and limited them to the 26 letters (all lowercase) and the space bar, it's highly unlikely that, even one million years later, any of them typed, "to be or not to be".
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
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December 15th, 2011 at 12:27:46 PM permalink
Quote: Whiskeyjack

How, it's simple,

The truth is if you play by the fixed rules of the game as set out you must win with a system. Why is that not possible, because casinos change the rules. Ie there is no rule in craps that sets a house limit. That is a house rule not part of the game of craps. If it were a fixed rule all house limits would be equal. They are not, so they can not be fixed rules of the game.

To be correct in saying no system will work you must use the added on non-fixed modifyed rules. Take away those rules and the "system" can't loose.



Okay, if the house limits are always $10000 maximum, $5 minimum, across the board.... how does your mathematical system beat the table game?

Remove the maximums. Now give me a system that allows me to take a $1000 bank roll and double it (guranteed) playing roulette.

Still doesn't exist.

It's the rules of the game (that you are -EV on every spin) that mean no system will help you, not the externalities.

(I'd like to avoid a debate about infinite bank rolls given infinite time. Just to say, I'm not convinced a infinite bankroll'd Martingale does actually work).
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
P90
P90
Joined: Jan 8, 2011
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December 15th, 2011 at 2:36:18 PM permalink
Quote: Whiskeyjack

The truth is if you play by the fixed rules of the game as set out you must win with a system.


True: The system can not lose, if you play by the fixed rules of the game as set out.

The system here is the casino.
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dwheatley
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
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December 15th, 2011 at 3:15:53 PM permalink
I've said it before, I'll say it again. The Martingale, or other progressive systems, DON'T work in theory, even with no limits.

It is possible that you will lose indefinitely, until the end of time. There is no law in probability that requires your luck to ever change. You could lose all the money in the world, bet again, and still lose.

Systems don't work. And the house limit is not the reason.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
jms9smith
jms9smith
Joined: Nov 13, 2011
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February 8th, 2012 at 5:06:38 AM permalink
sure, but that is like saying that you could win over and over for ever?! there is no law that requires your winning luck to change either? the question is about what are the chances..... i have a question on this,

what is the probability that from any hand in baccarat the subsequent hands will show the player to have won 80 more than the bank?

what is the formula for this if i wanted to change the 80 to 100 or 200?

lets say x is the point at which we are beginning to record the results, and from x, we see that (regardless of the number of hands played or the history of results) the player has won 80 more times than the bank...... PLEASE HELP with a formula

thank you so much. this can beat the casinos if the chances are low enough.
dwheatley
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
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February 8th, 2012 at 9:51:31 AM permalink
The formula is (p/(1-p))^i, where p is the probability of winning and i is the number of hands more that you want to see. Derived from (one-sided infinite) gambler's ruin.

Now if you can figure out how to beat the casinos with this information, I will be impressed.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
YoDiceRoll11
YoDiceRoll11
Joined: Jan 9, 2012
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February 8th, 2012 at 10:24:19 AM permalink
To The OP:

jms9smith
jms9smith
Joined: Nov 13, 2011
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February 8th, 2012 at 11:15:27 AM permalink
Quote: dwheatley

The formula is (p/(1-p))^i, where p is the probability of winning and i is the number of hands more that you want to see. Derived from (one-sided infinite) gambler's ruin.

Now if you can figure out how to beat the casinos with this information, I will be impressed.



THANK YOU so much for doing that just 2 questions, is (1-p) meant to be the probability of losing? because it's not equal to 1-p so can i just put the probability of losing in there? also can you please explain how and why you get that formula? thank you so much and you will be the first to know if it works!! :)

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