DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 185
  • Posts: 10437
January 12th, 2010 at 10:30:55 AM permalink
In The Wiz's Betting Systems section, toward the bottom of this page: http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html, The Wiz talks about a 1% and 2% advantage coin flip, and betting on that coin to parlay $100 to $1,000,000.

This is the wording of the simulation set-up:
Quote:

System salesmen usually promise ridiculous advantages. For example, even with just a 1% advantage on an even money bet, it would not be difficult to parlay $100 into $1,000,000 by betting in proportion to bankroll. I was asked to prove this claim so I wrote a computer simulation based on the toss of a biased coin, with a 50.5% chance of winning. At all times the player bet 1% of his bankroll, rounded down to the nearest dollar. However, if a winning bet would put the player over $1,000,000 then he only bet as much as he needed to get to exactly $1,000,000.

My question is about that last line.

Why limit the win to exactly $1mil? I think I can vouch that most of us are greedy, and would be happy to win more, so why limit it?


Wiz -

If I've piqued your curiosity any, and if you still have that simpuation program (or can re-write it easily), I'd be very curious to know the results of the following challenge:

Modify the simulation to run with two 'players' betting on the same coin flip. One player limits their bet as you wrote, the other simply always bets 1% rounded down to the nearest whole dollar.

Summarize the number of coin flips for each player to either bust out or make that million. And provide a high, low and average total for the player that gets over $1mil/

I'd also be very curious to see if, during any simulation, one player busts out while the other hits the million.

Thanks.


For what it's worth, if I could trust the RNG in my PC, I'd venture into writing it myself....
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 310
  • Posts: 8566
January 12th, 2010 at 10:57:46 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

My question is about that last line.



seems to me the issue of going bust or not is answered at a million, that continued betting would add almost nothing to the percentage of busts, which is the only thing that would keep you out of the clover infinitely ?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: 典hanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell! She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
  • Threads: 265
  • Posts: 14484
January 12th, 2010 at 11:45:24 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

My question is about that last line. Why limit the win to exactly $1mil?

I think the point being made does not hinge on the results of the final bet. And as a matter of curiosity most coin tosses are infact biased by almost one percent. Yep! Its not 50-50, its more like 51-49 with the bias toward whichever side is 'up' at the toss.

This is one reason I doubt dice-controllers. You would need a really hefty "edge" to make any money and even then you would still have to contend with mistakes, fatigue and distractions.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 185
  • Posts: 10437
January 12th, 2010 at 12:02:33 PM permalink
If you win that last bet, then having bet only enough to hit a million as opposed to betting the full 1% would be irrelevant for the purpose of scoring it a success or not.

However, if you MISS, then betting the full 1% puts you further away from that $1,000,000 finish line. Which, I guess, answers my own question of "Why?".

But I'd still be interested in seeing a side-by-side simulation.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 185
  • Posts: 10437
January 12th, 2010 at 12:03:59 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

...tosses are infact biased by almost one percent. Yep! Its not 50-50, its more like 51-49...

I'm not going to argue if your claim is accurate or not, but, for the record, 51% / 49% is a 2% advantage, not 1%.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 310
  • Posts: 8566
January 12th, 2010 at 12:18:18 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

You would need a really hefty "edge" to make any money



I thought the Wizard's point was the opposite, that a 1% edge is so tremendous you should risk just about all you've got, if you ever could get it. But what is 'hefty' to you?

Quote: FleaStiff

even then you would still have to contend with mistakes, fatigue and distractions.



I'm with you there
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: 典hanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell! She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
cclub79
cclub79
Joined: Dec 16, 2009
  • Threads: 35
  • Posts: 1147
January 12th, 2010 at 1:39:36 PM permalink
Well, you should not risk everything you've got. You should "grind" out a win if there is a slight house edge. Think of it in the reverse. A game like craps has a low house edge; if you place ONE big bet, you have a slightly less than 50% chance of doubling up. If you place many small bets, you will slowly succumb to the house edge and lose. In the coin flip scenario, you want to use the player edge to slowly GROW your bankroll. One bet for everything you've got would be foolish...you are tempting variance when the deck is stacked in your favor for once!
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 185
  • Posts: 10437
January 12th, 2010 at 1:47:21 PM permalink
cclub -

You might want to re-read this thread, and/or read the section of the main site that this was pulled from.

Nobody suggested one big bet.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
cclub79
cclub79
Joined: Dec 16, 2009
  • Threads: 35
  • Posts: 1147
January 12th, 2010 at 2:03:39 PM permalink
Yeah there were a couple of things going on here at once, and I saw the:

>>Quote: FleaStiff

You would need a really hefty "edge" to make any money

I thought the Wizard's point was the opposite, that a 1% edge is so tremendous you should risk just about all you've got, if you ever could get it. But what is 'hefty' to you?

<<<<

Risking "all you've got" is what threw me for a curve. You never should really be risking "all you've got" with the system that the Wizard suggested. It would be better to say that you would never have to stop betting and you'd continue to win. Risking all you've got is never in play if you are a grinder.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1383
  • Posts: 23123
January 12th, 2010 at 6:16:52 PM permalink
First, if you had a coin toss type game with a 1% edge, then the Kelly Criterion would suggest you bet 1% of your bankroll very flip.

Second, my point in the program was to demonstrate how easy it would be to grow $100 to a $1,000,000 with a 1% edge. If system really did work, it would be very easy to make millions from it. You wouldn't need to find buyers for it, like the many system cons do. Do a search on "roulette strategy" at YouTube, and you'll get tons of vermin, making promises of advantages much higher than 1%.

Third, I wrote that program quite a while ago, and don't remember what I named it. However, fiddling with it is very low on my priority list. I will say it doesn't quit working at a million, that was just an arbitrary number. With a 1% edge you could go as high as you wanted as long as you didn't bump against casino limits. The more you play, the more the ratio of wins will approach 50.5%.

I hope that helps.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

  • Jump to: