Roulette System (mathematics/wheel bias based)
October 22nd, 2011 at 6:17:16 PM
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Ok for all you math/statistics people, it has likely been tried by countless people over the past 300 years but let me know what you think...
Step 1-Calculate necessary sample size to be 99% confident (1% significance level in statistics) with 38 variables (sections on a roulette wheel).
Step 2-Collect sample size 24 hours a day 7 days a week by using a team of players to record outcomes. If ANYTHING on the wheel changes (placement, cleaning, movement, etc) the sample will be deemed invalid and be discarded.
Step 3-Use statistical software to determine the probability that the roulette wheel is biased towards certain numbers or sections.
Sept 4-If the wheel is deemed not to be biased, move onto another wheel. If you determined the wheel is biased, exploit the wheel!
What do you think? I understand that the sample size will be quite large.
Step 1-Calculate necessary sample size to be 99% confident (1% significance level in statistics) with 38 variables (sections on a roulette wheel).
Step 2-Collect sample size 24 hours a day 7 days a week by using a team of players to record outcomes. If ANYTHING on the wheel changes (placement, cleaning, movement, etc) the sample will be deemed invalid and be discarded.
Step 3-Use statistical software to determine the probability that the roulette wheel is biased towards certain numbers or sections.
Sept 4-If the wheel is deemed not to be biased, move onto another wheel. If you determined the wheel is biased, exploit the wheel!
What do you think? I understand that the sample size will be quite large.
October 22nd, 2011 at 7:01:38 PM
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Why don't you try just plunking your five dollars down and seeing what happens?
October 22nd, 2011 at 7:56:10 PM
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Just trying to use mathematics to gain an edge over the human/mechanical elements (most vulnerable) of the game.
October 22nd, 2011 at 8:48:23 PM
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Quote: bighitter56What do you think? I understand that the sample size will be quite large.
To the point where collecting statistically significant data on enough wheels to find a biased example would not be likely to occur in the same lifetime as the discovery of a biased wheel. Of course, the location of your hunt might influence the results. The Wiz has recommended continental Europe; I've suggested Caracas and anywhere Argentine outside Buenos Aires or anywhere Brazilian outside of Rio de Janero in the past. Legal casinos in the US having biased wheels isn't something you'll be likely to convince anyone here of without first becoming the Joseph Jagger of Las Vegas, something that's never been done.
Even Dr. Wilson and his bias play crew back in the 1950s got backed off way before they could do any serious damage to the House bottom line. And even way back then he described a primitive mechanical computer that he observed in a Reno casino being using to monitor wheels for bias. They do that with real computers now, more efficiently than AP teams can.
October 22nd, 2011 at 9:49:59 PM
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Quote: bighitter56Just trying to use mathematics to gain an edge over the human/mechanical elements (most vulnerable) of the game.
You seem to be new here. Any mention of betting systems tends to draw contemptuous answers in this forum. It's a bit like proposing a serious effort to design a perpetual motion machine at a physics conference.
This seems like a good place to propose a rule: no mocking of systems posts as long as they're posted in the systems section.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
October 23rd, 2011 at 12:06:58 AM
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Quote: bighitter56Just trying to use mathematics to gain an edge over the human/mechanical elements (most vulnerable) of the game.
Your best bet would be the Eudaemonic Pie, a book that dealt with two teams of physicists trying to clock a roulette wheel. One for the challenge and one for the money.
If by 'mechanical elements" you mean the construction of the wheel itself then the 1800s would have been perfect for you. Now the methods of construction, maintenance and surveillance are such that its a total waste of time.
The only vulnerability now other than past posting is the "sector prediction" that can be done since casinos find it profitable to allow betting to continue as the wheel slows down and the little ball is spinning around. If anyone can reliably predict the octet that is a prime candidate, he can get bets down. So speed calculations of the wheel and the ball might work (for awhile) but looking at an actual imbalance in the wheel or a slight variation in slot width is not worth the time invested.
October 24th, 2011 at 10:40:34 AM
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There's a grungy indian casino in my neck of the woods whose 38-spot wheel has pockets caked with crud, which I expect is residue from the smoke in the air and years of dealers' touching it. I've been looking at it for a year, and the crud hasn't been cleaned out yet. A finger streak through the dust on the chrome of the spindle was there for months. There's no electronic readerboard hooked up to it. I'd think that if a wheel could show bias, this would be it. But from the tiny sample I gathered (about 1000 spins over the course of a year) that I've entered into Roulette Xtreme, it's not. Of course, 1000 spins spread over that long of a period is useless, as there are so many other variables that could affect it.
My preference is to just bet the last five numbers spun. If the wheel's got any kind of a bias, this will cut the house edge by a little, and if it doesn't, it's no worse than picking five random numbers. I'm down 3.26% for the last 12 months, instead of the 5.26% I'd expect, but again, that could be just variance. It's been worth the money just to hear the croupiers talk about what numbers are due. My favorite was when one implored the table to bet a section of five numbers opposite the one he just hit, "because it almost always goes to the other side on the next spin". If it hit, "see! I told you". If it was close (within about six numbers on either side), "see! it was almost there!". If it wasn't in this 17-number range, he wouldn't say anything.
I love watching the mathematically challenged.
My preference is to just bet the last five numbers spun. If the wheel's got any kind of a bias, this will cut the house edge by a little, and if it doesn't, it's no worse than picking five random numbers. I'm down 3.26% for the last 12 months, instead of the 5.26% I'd expect, but again, that could be just variance. It's been worth the money just to hear the croupiers talk about what numbers are due. My favorite was when one implored the table to bet a section of five numbers opposite the one he just hit, "because it almost always goes to the other side on the next spin". If it hit, "see! I told you". If it was close (within about six numbers on either side), "see! it was almost there!". If it wasn't in this 17-number range, he wouldn't say anything.
I love watching the mathematically challenged.
October 24th, 2011 at 2:43:47 PM
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Quote: NareedYou seem to be new here. Any mention of betting systems tends to draw contemptuous answers in this forum. It's a bit like proposing a serious effort to design a perpetual motion machine at a physics conference.
This seems like a good place to propose a rule: no mocking of systems posts as long as they're posted in the systems section.
Hold on - he's not proposing a meritless system. His approach seems to make sense. I just don't think it would yield any favorable results. I don't think a wheel would ever be left untinkered with long enough to get the sample size required. Actually, to discover
anything usable would seem to require that the wheel maintained a repeatable bias even after being cleaned, adjusted, whatever.
October 24th, 2011 at 3:55:42 PM
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So what you are proposing is that there exists some pre-ordained 1 out of 38 slot that was the true and proper slot the ball should have entered but as the wheel slowed and the ball slowed it hit more crud than slot and at the last moment continued on to the next crudy slot. How would cruddy slot bias be shown. It just shows displaced randomness.
October 24th, 2011 at 4:26:05 PM
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Quote: FleaStiffHow would cruddy slot bias be shown. It just shows displaced randomness.
Perhaps you need to purchase my "Make $500 A Day Cruddy Roulette Wheel Moneymaking System!" I will let you in on the secret to making money with a cruddy roulette wheel, GUARANTEED! I normally sell it for $599.00 which you could EASILY make back in one day, but if you buy by 1:00 GMT tomorrow I will let you have it for $39.95!
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
October 24th, 2011 at 4:27:42 PM
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Maybe one pocket has more crud on it than others, so the ball gets kicked out more, meaning you shouldn't wager on that number.
Or maybe one pocket has more crud on it than others, so the ball squishes into place more, meaning you should wager on that number.
Who knows? I doubt it makes a difference that will overcome the 5.26% edge, but betting the numbers that hit recently isn't going to be worse than 5.26%, I don't have any illusions that it's going to be +EV.
Or maybe one pocket has more crud on it than others, so the ball squishes into place more, meaning you should wager on that number.
Who knows? I doubt it makes a difference that will overcome the 5.26% edge, but betting the numbers that hit recently isn't going to be worse than 5.26%, I don't have any illusions that it's going to be +EV.
October 24th, 2011 at 4:38:42 PM
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Hold on guys. He is asking a very reasonable question, and he actually is NOT proposing a 'system'. He is making an hypothesis that PERHAPS there is a biased wheel. that if identified, can yield an advantage play. As stated, the likelihood is that he will be wasting his time, but he specifically did NOT say that he is sure he will find a winner, but rather, that he MIGHT. I think if someone wants to actually help him they could give information on how many spins will occur on a roulette table over 24 hours, and how biased the wheel would have to be to state with some level of certainty that the wheel is biased enough to overcome the 5.26% house edge.
October 24th, 2011 at 4:49:48 PM
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"no mocking of systems posts as long as they're posted in the systems section" >>> (lol) Nice in theory but it would eliminate around 72% of the members.
Ken
Ken
October 24th, 2011 at 5:08:52 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOI think if someone wants to actually help him they could give information on how many spins will occur on a roulette table over 24 hours, and how biased the wheel would have to be to state with some level of certainty that the wheel is biased enough to overcome the 5.26% house edge.
The answer to the second question is, in virtually all casinos, "too biased for the casino not to catch it before you do." You can only profit from a biased wheel if you can identify it before the casino does (and takes corrective action), *and* if it is sufficiently biased to overcome the house edge. The American game makes this virtually impossible at any properly-operated casino.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
October 24th, 2011 at 9:45:49 PM
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Wow, there's a great deal of really bad information in this thread and out there on the web.
October 25th, 2011 at 4:12:00 AM
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The wheel is getting dirty and dusty. Rarely or never gets dusted or shined. These strike me as being more cosmetic than anything else. If you told me that this casino had opened in 1801 and hadn't cleaned or otherwise serviced their wheel since then you'd have my attention. If we really wanna do this, the factors to consider should probably be (and I'm really just stabbing in the dark here) age of the wheel and environmental humidity. Though a good varnish would possibly negate the significance of the latter, and Roulette wheels are do tend to be very highly varnished or lacquered.
Physical appearance of a wheel is not really a good indicator of bias unless the wheel has been removed from its casement and you're observing the underside. This forum's go-to guy on Roulette bias play, Dr. Alan Wilson, found a very old and worn-looking wheel in a basement lounge in Reno in the 1950s; some of the numbers on the wheel were almost totally worn away and had never been repainted. He and his team got really excited and started taking notes. But they never did find a bias to it, unlike the new-looking wheel upstairs, which proved to be unquestionably biased as a result of a misguided (but essentially invisible) repair attempt.
Incidentally, I cannot recommend Dr. Wilson's book highly enough to anyone interested in Roulette bias play. Unfortunately long out of print; search Amazon for "The Casino Gambler's Guide" and you ought to be able to locate a reasonably-priced used copy. I feel like our bias play discussions here would be a lot shorter if everyone had read it. :)
Physical appearance of a wheel is not really a good indicator of bias unless the wheel has been removed from its casement and you're observing the underside. This forum's go-to guy on Roulette bias play, Dr. Alan Wilson, found a very old and worn-looking wheel in a basement lounge in Reno in the 1950s; some of the numbers on the wheel were almost totally worn away and had never been repainted. He and his team got really excited and started taking notes. But they never did find a bias to it, unlike the new-looking wheel upstairs, which proved to be unquestionably biased as a result of a misguided (but essentially invisible) repair attempt.
Incidentally, I cannot recommend Dr. Wilson's book highly enough to anyone interested in Roulette bias play. Unfortunately long out of print; search Amazon for "The Casino Gambler's Guide" and you ought to be able to locate a reasonably-priced used copy. I feel like our bias play discussions here would be a lot shorter if everyone had read it. :)
October 25th, 2011 at 4:43:57 AM
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Biased wheels have been successfully exploited since Joseph Jagger at Monte Carlo in the 19th century and still are being exploited today. The authoritative history of the subject is Beating the Wheel: Winning Strategies at Roulette by Russell T. Barnhardt. The current advantage player at roulette most in the news is Gonzalo Garcia-Pelayo. If you want to see roulette analysis in action, see the paper by Jeff Murphy.
Advantage play at roulette is an unpopular topic in this forum. If you want to know more, send me a private message. This will avoid your getting sniped at by others. This can be a very roughhouse environment.
Advantage play at roulette is an unpopular topic in this forum. If you want to know more, send me a private message. This will avoid your getting sniped at by others. This can be a very roughhouse environment.
A fool is someone whose pencil wears out before its eraser does. - Marilyn Vos Savant
October 25th, 2011 at 5:22:21 AM
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Quote: statman
Advantage play at roulette is an unpopular topic in this forum. If you want to know more, send me a private message. This will avoid your getting sniped at by others. This can be a very roughhouse environment.
Yeah, absolutely! Avoiding public scrutiny and review of the results is the absolute best way to both win respect of your peers, and develop great scientific discoveries. Way to go!
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
October 25th, 2011 at 6:14:20 AM
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>Hold on guys. He is asking a very reasonable question,
I agree. Or at least I would agree that there is a reasonable belief implied in his comments.
>and he actually is NOT proposing a 'system'. He is making an hypothesis that PERHAPS there is a biased wheel.
Yes, although that is more implied than overtly stated.
Let us perhaps shift our thinking momentarily away from a roulette wheel and aim it at the world of computers.
We've all heard the term "bug" and we all know that the term was coined when a programmer found a moth on a circuit board.
So if we restate the problem and be a bit more explicit about it then it becomes is there a bug in the system (crud) and is the bug a serious one that can be exploited for profit since the bug creates a biased wheel.
So let us say, solely for argument purposes, that yes. Crud on the surface of the slot edges and entrances does affect the ball. Let us say that the crud is not equally distributed. This ball that, but for the crud would fall on a red number actually falls on the neighboring number which is black because as the ball slows crud at the entrance to the slot does "something" to the ball's path.
The trouble I have is that its obvious crud has no effect until the ball is slow and approaching the slots and any interference with its "ordained" path is slight. If it were crudless one particular spin was ordained to be Seven Red but the crud caused it to be Black. However, the crud is more or less all over the wheel so any interference is just as likely to divert the ball to the adjacent slot all the time.
So you start out with a house edge of 5.26 percent and you wind up with a house edge of just about the same thing. The "bug" does not affect the house edge in any way that will allow a player to exploit the wheel. IF the player somehow knew that "the next spin would be Seven Red and the player also knew that the "crud factor" would make it actually wind up in the adjacent slot then it would be exploitable, but the cruddy wheel is acting upon the ball only at that final moment. And there is no way to say that a known cruddy wheel is anything other than 5.26 percent.
I agree. Or at least I would agree that there is a reasonable belief implied in his comments.
>and he actually is NOT proposing a 'system'. He is making an hypothesis that PERHAPS there is a biased wheel.
Yes, although that is more implied than overtly stated.
Let us perhaps shift our thinking momentarily away from a roulette wheel and aim it at the world of computers.
We've all heard the term "bug" and we all know that the term was coined when a programmer found a moth on a circuit board.
So if we restate the problem and be a bit more explicit about it then it becomes is there a bug in the system (crud) and is the bug a serious one that can be exploited for profit since the bug creates a biased wheel.
So let us say, solely for argument purposes, that yes. Crud on the surface of the slot edges and entrances does affect the ball. Let us say that the crud is not equally distributed. This ball that, but for the crud would fall on a red number actually falls on the neighboring number which is black because as the ball slows crud at the entrance to the slot does "something" to the ball's path.
The trouble I have is that its obvious crud has no effect until the ball is slow and approaching the slots and any interference with its "ordained" path is slight. If it were crudless one particular spin was ordained to be Seven Red but the crud caused it to be Black. However, the crud is more or less all over the wheel so any interference is just as likely to divert the ball to the adjacent slot all the time.
So you start out with a house edge of 5.26 percent and you wind up with a house edge of just about the same thing. The "bug" does not affect the house edge in any way that will allow a player to exploit the wheel. IF the player somehow knew that "the next spin would be Seven Red and the player also knew that the "crud factor" would make it actually wind up in the adjacent slot then it would be exploitable, but the cruddy wheel is acting upon the ball only at that final moment. And there is no way to say that a known cruddy wheel is anything other than 5.26 percent.
October 25th, 2011 at 6:29:51 AM
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No it is a very popular topic, its just that people seem to believe that a bias simply must exist, but dirty frets and dirty slots seem to be a source of distraction to some and disgust to others ... but not a source of bias.Quote: statmanAdvantage play at roulette is an unpopular topic in this forum.
October 25th, 2011 at 8:35:22 AM
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Quote: statmanThe current advantage player at roulette most in the news is Gonzalo Garcia-Pelayo.
That's classic. Garcia-Pelayo made "many simulations" using the built-in RNG from MS-DOS QBasic.
The RND function in QBasic is a simple LCG, hardly the best choice for MC simulation because it has some pretty serious problems. Also, if the screenshot of the source code in that video was accurate, it's buggy in the same way that your simulator is buggy:
RANDOMIZE TIMER
X = INT(RND * 39)
X will be in the range [0 .. 38]. That's one too many for an actual roulette wheel. Whoops.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
October 25th, 2011 at 8:48:46 AM
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Quote: statmanBiased wheels have been successfully exploited since Joseph Jagger at Monte Carlo in the 19th century and still are being exploited today. The authoritative history of the subject is Beating the Wheel: Winning Strategies at Roulette by Russell T. Barnhardt. The current advantage player at roulette most in the news is Gonzalo Garcia-Pelayo. If you want to see roulette analysis in action, see the paper by Jeff Murphy.
Advantage play at roulette is an unpopular topic in this forum. If you want to know more, send me a private message. This will avoid your getting sniped at by others. This can be a very roughhouse environment.
Is everyone scared, now? Please don't let sniping or roughhousing be taken personally. Sticks and stones...................
October 25th, 2011 at 9:49:36 AM
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Quote: statmanBiased wheels have been successfully exploited since Joseph Jagger at Monte Carlo in the 19th century and still are being exploited today. The authoritative history of the subject is Beating the Wheel: Winning Strategies at Roulette by Russell T. Barnhardt. The current advantage player at roulette most in the news is Garcia-Pelayo. If you want to see roulette analysis in action, see the paper by Murphy.
Cheers for the links. Interesting to read the paper. It provides clues for game protection more than clues for advantage play, I'm sure.
I had see the Spanish dude in a documentary before, a good few years ago.
Quote:Advantage play at roulette is an unpopular topic in this forum. If you want to know more, send me a private message. This will avoid your getting sniped at by others. This can be a very roughhouse environment.
I get called out on what others consider to be bullshit a lot. It's one the the reasons I come back... even if I can reason through why I believe I am still right, at least I am being tested by others, and that helps me. Your mileage may vary.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
October 25th, 2011 at 11:07:56 AM
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Quote: MathExtremistThe answer to the second question is, in virtually all casinos, "too biased for the casino not to catch it before you do." You can only profit from a biased wheel if you can identify it before the casino does (and takes corrective action), *and* if it is sufficiently biased to overcome the house edge. The American game makes this virtually impossible at any properly-operated casino.
Math Extremist,
Have you ever provided consulting services to a casino with regards to the roulette wheels and their performance?
October 25th, 2011 at 11:37:35 AM
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I love roulette threads.
Solo venimos, solo nos vamos. Y aqui nos juntamos, juntos que estamos.
October 25th, 2011 at 12:34:06 PM
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The roulette system guys are definitely a different breed. They tend to be very conspiracy minded.
October 25th, 2011 at 12:35:55 PM
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I find your viewpoint (at least what I think your viewpoint to be) amusing as well.
Solo venimos, solo nos vamos. Y aqui nos juntamos, juntos que estamos.
October 25th, 2011 at 12:39:42 PM
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Please feel free to elaborate.
October 25th, 2011 at 12:55:55 PM
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Quote: KeyserMath Extremist,
Have you ever provided consulting services to a casino with regards to the roulette wheels and their performance?
Not a land-based casino with physical wheels. I have done so for online casinos with RNG-driven games.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
October 25th, 2011 at 1:11:24 PM
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Here's something that I've noticed.
Alcohol tends to make roulette system players winners.
Alcohol tends to make roulette system players winners.
October 25th, 2011 at 2:08:10 PM
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The Conventional Wisdom: "too biased for the casino not to catch it before you do. You can only profit from a biased wheel if you can identify it before the casino does and if it is sufficiently biased to overcome the house edge. ..."
So the conventional wisdom is that in most cases the wheel is too good to be biased and in a few cases its too old or has suffered some trauma but its bias is discovered by the casino before there has been statistically valid bias determination which would consume a few weeks of some AP's time.
I guess somewhere there might exist a gaffed wheel but I can't jot down numbers all day long for a few hours or analyze them on a supercomputer to find out.
So what to do? Trek to Timbuktu and hope to find a gaffed wheel?
Wait for rumors of a gaffed wheel to reach me? That would be unlikely. They would most likely reach the casino first.
I mean lets face it folks, even a dumb croupier from a foreign country is going to detect bias before anyone else. He will either tell his supervisor or his brother in law. And this pre-supposes that the casino doesn't already have a computer that monitors the results and flags a few outliers.
So the conventional wisdom is that in most cases the wheel is too good to be biased and in a few cases its too old or has suffered some trauma but its bias is discovered by the casino before there has been statistically valid bias determination which would consume a few weeks of some AP's time.
I guess somewhere there might exist a gaffed wheel but I can't jot down numbers all day long for a few hours or analyze them on a supercomputer to find out.
So what to do? Trek to Timbuktu and hope to find a gaffed wheel?
Wait for rumors of a gaffed wheel to reach me? That would be unlikely. They would most likely reach the casino first.
I mean lets face it folks, even a dumb croupier from a foreign country is going to detect bias before anyone else. He will either tell his supervisor or his brother in law. And this pre-supposes that the casino doesn't already have a computer that monitors the results and flags a few outliers.
October 25th, 2011 at 3:02:05 PM
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Quote: FleastiffI mean lets face it folks, even a dumb croupier from a foreign country is going to detect bias before anyone else. He will either tell his supervisor or his brother in law.
What makes you think the above is true?
Quote: FleastiffAnd this pre-supposes that the casino doesn't already have a computer that monitors the results and flags a few outliers.
And just curious, exactly why would you need a super computer? For that matter, why would you need a computer at all
October 25th, 2011 at 3:10:33 PM
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Quote:MathExtremist: That's classic. Garcia-Pelayo made "many simulations" using the built-in RNG from MS-DOS QBasic.
The RND function in QBasic is a simple LCG, hardly the best choice for MC simulation because it has some pretty serious problems. Also, if the screenshot of the source code in that video was accurate, it's buggy in the same way that your simulator is buggy:
RANDOMIZE TIMER
X = INT(RND * 39)
X will be in the range [0 .. 38]. That's one too many for an actual roulette wheel. Whoops.
For the benefit of the starter of this thread, MathExtremist is the member of this forum I most respect, however his specialty is slots, not roulette. He is one of the few people who knows what goes on inside those tricky boxes. He pointed out the error in my simulator earlier and I corrected it.
The video shows Garcia-Pelayo at his computer, but I don't see how anyone could figure out how to beat a wheel using a simulation. What you would be analyzing is your own wheel, not the casino's. The workflow would be Data -> Analysis -> Conclusion. The X2 analysis used by Murphy is the one used by the Wizard in response to an inquiry from Macau as to whether or not a wheel was biased. The thread is at (https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/3760-is-this-roulette-wheel-biased/3/#post98249).
A fool is someone whose pencil wears out before its eraser does. - Marilyn Vos Savant
October 25th, 2011 at 4:15:13 PM
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Quote: statmanFor the benefit of the starter of this thread, MathExtremist is the member of this forum I most respect, however his specialty is slots, not roulette.
My clients and I will be the judges of what my specialties are, thank you very much. If that was your idea of "respect", count me out.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
October 25th, 2011 at 4:18:53 PM
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Quote: KeyserAnd just curious, exactly why would you need a super computer? For that matter, why would you need a computer at all
You don't need a "super computer", but the reason to use computers to detect bias is to free up manual labor from having to collect the data for subsequent analysis. Many major roulette vendors offer wheel reporting software. If a casino chooses not to look at the data, that's on them, but it's not like it's not being collected.
You seem to think that a single player (or team of players) can gather wheel bias information faster and/or better than the computerized monitoring system hooked up to the wheel. Why is that?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
October 25th, 2011 at 4:21:58 PM
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Quote: Math ExtremistYou seem to think that a single player (or team of players) can gather wheel bias information faster and/or better than the computerized monitoring system hooked up to the wheel. Why is that?
I don't believe I've ever commented about the speed of data collection. But since you touched on the subject, what makes you think casinos track the wheels?
I guess I should clear something up from the start. In the US, most casinos view the double zero roulette game as a carnival game. Very few casino have the software upgrade required to track these specific wheels, since they consider the game as being a suckers bet.
They do have the software on the rapid roulette games because of the shuffle master interface, but a wheel is not going to be removed from service if it's making money - even if it were to test positive for bias.
Only recently, have a few casinos aquired to the newest software interface available with the latest TCS readerboards.
October 25th, 2011 at 4:38:08 PM
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Quote: KeyserI've never commented about the speed of data collection. But since you touched on the subject, what makes you think casinos track the wheels?
What makes you think they don't?
Cammegh PitBoss HQ
TCS John Huxley Gaming Floor Live
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
October 25th, 2011 at 4:45:14 PM
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Yes, these tracking systems are available, but you won't find very many of them in the US. There are several different tracking systems available, but they are almost all used outside of the US.
Most casinos in the US regard the games as being for suckers, and for a good reason. In Europe and other locations wheels are carefully scrutinized, but not here because of the extra zero. Casinos here are run more like the parks and rec. dept found in most cities. Most casinos here also won't pay for the upgrade required. They simply want the cheapest hubcap that they can get that will spin for a long time.
Most casinos in the US regard the games as being for suckers, and for a good reason. In Europe and other locations wheels are carefully scrutinized, but not here because of the extra zero. Casinos here are run more like the parks and rec. dept found in most cities. Most casinos here also won't pay for the upgrade required. They simply want the cheapest hubcap that they can get that will spin for a long time.
October 25th, 2011 at 5:21:17 PM
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Quote: KeyserHere's something that I've noticed.
Alcohol tends to make roulette system players winners.
Said the GAMBLERS FALLACY player....(lol)
Ken
October 25th, 2011 at 5:22:47 PM
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My point is system players that are drunk tend to forget their losses, while remembering their wins.
October 25th, 2011 at 6:13:30 PM
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Quote: KeyserMy point is system players that are drunk tend to forget their losses, while remembering their wins.
So when that 'drunk' gets sober, are you saying he will NOT remember the losses and ONLY remember if he won (net) the night before? Is that what you're selling? Come on man, I expect more from you.
Ken
October 30th, 2011 at 6:49:43 AM
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Big surprise, one more question not answered from the master himself. Yeah, he sounds like he knows alot. (lol)
Ken
Ken
October 30th, 2011 at 7:05:54 AM
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>No one has ever convinced me that their way of playing roulette is better than my way.
>Winners have simply formed the habit of doing things AP players don't like to do.
The cashier honors all checques presented to them unless you are wearing large cuffs and have sticky fingers.
So whether its AP-Style or Anti AP Style... all the system has to do is work.
>Winners have simply formed the habit of doing things AP players don't like to do.
The cashier honors all checques presented to them unless you are wearing large cuffs and have sticky fingers.
So whether its AP-Style or Anti AP Style... all the system has to do is work.
October 30th, 2011 at 3:01:12 PM
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"The cashier honors all checques presented to them........all the system has to do is work" >>> BINGO, very true!
Ken
Ken
October 30th, 2011 at 6:51:04 PM
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I'd like to repeat my warning about over flagging. As much as I loathe betting systems, there is no rule against discussing them on the forum as long as they are under the "betting systems" category, obey other forum rules regarding decorum, and are not trying to sell any particular system.
So take it easy on the flagging people.
So take it easy on the flagging people.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 31st, 2011 at 1:14:19 AM
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In response to everyone, biases actually develop quite often. Small things force it, and they are remedied long before a statistical proven edge can be determined. This does not remove the possible advantage play from the scenario.
Take any random variable (wear/dust/grime/defect) that forces the ball off the track at a set point. Now should the ball only possibly cover even 90% of the wheel from the drop point, there is an edge. Remove one number from a European wheel and it's a dead even game, remove two and the player has an edge.
As the original post states, there will be too many hours lost scrapping data samples due to cleaning and routine maintenance.. better to recognize a bias that develops quickly and capitalize..
Take any random variable (wear/dust/grime/defect) that forces the ball off the track at a set point. Now should the ball only possibly cover even 90% of the wheel from the drop point, there is an edge. Remove one number from a European wheel and it's a dead even game, remove two and the player has an edge.
As the original post states, there will be too many hours lost scrapping data samples due to cleaning and routine maintenance.. better to recognize a bias that develops quickly and capitalize..
October 31st, 2011 at 6:46:02 AM
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Quote: LVJackalTake any random variable (wear/dust/grime/defect) that forces the ball off the track at a set point. Now should the ball only possibly cover even 90% of the wheel from the drop point, there is an edge. Remove one number from a European wheel and it's a dead even game, remove two and the player has an edge.
Yes, you actually wrote what's going on there, "random variables". If the wheel where truly-random, the ball would NEVER drop. It's those effects you mention which make the thing variable. Besides, do you really even believe that some dust, etc, will rule out 10% of the drop-zone?
Why bet at all, if you can be sure?
Anyway, what constitutes a "good bet"? - The best slots-game in town; a sucker's edge; or some gray-area blackjack-stunts?
(P.S. God doesn't even have to exist to be God.)
October 31st, 2011 at 8:51:16 AM
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Quote: GarnabbyIf the wheel where truly-random, the ball would NEVER drop.
Why?
October 31st, 2011 at 5:38:03 PM
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Quote: KeyserWhy?
What do you mean 'why'? I'm flagging this, its nonsense (only joking).
Ken
November 1st, 2011 at 11:48:28 AM
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Quote: KeyserWhy?
That is a fair question, the thing being not cut-and-dried as the indeterminancies posed by perpetual, straight-line motion (or translation). But a watered-down version of that, analogous to the sort of randomness of the irrational numbers' decimal places, the square-root of seven, eg. Unlike those numbers, which are already set out for us, if not infinitely-at-hand, live roulette involves some processing. And that's where those "frets", "diamonds", and even the dirt, egs, come into play.
In practice, the former sort of randomness exists primarily and seemingly-sporadically in what's commonly called "quantum states"... a finite (in positive matter), mapped-out (by probability) set of rules for the tiny, "loose" wave/particles thereby governed. So far, and despite much effort, no one has in any substantial way, theoretically or physically, unified quantum-science with the other sciences... to bring our world's understanding into the quantum's. A quantum-state remains that, separate and aloof, either-or, until its "wave-function collapses", supposedly upon having incredibly-quickly (forward and backward through space-time, and back to itself,) has "physically" calculated out enough optimally-possible paths for the universe to continuously yield a "fresh" one for everyone/thing involved. It's either that sort of completely-unpredictable, unstoppable randomness, or the predictable (, even if we don't yet posses the practical tools to well do so,) outcomes like roulette; but never, it seems, both at once.
The math, whichever, is relatively-easy... it's living and breathing it, that's the hard-but-fun part. How to begin to explain things most mathematicians take for granted, like infinities (which often cancel out on those own), or the physical bases for their operational ones?
Why bet at all, if you can be sure?
Anyway, what constitutes a "good bet"? - The best slots-game in town; a sucker's edge; or some gray-area blackjack-stunts?
(P.S. God doesn't even have to exist to be God.)
