SONBP2
SONBP2
  • Threads: 88
  • Posts: 289
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
September 14th, 2011 at 10:02:37 AM permalink
I play craps a lot and have been playing more recently. I have a had a few nice winning sessions as well playing the pass line with 5x odds (or max odds) and continual come bets with 5x odds (or max odds). However, the best streak I have seen is where a guy won 4 pass line wagers in a row. Additionally I was at a table where a woman threw for about 20 minutes hit all kinds of numbers, but only won on the pass line twice.

I am thinking of playing a negative progression on the don't pass with a $25 starting bet, then $50, $100, $200. If the person makes 4 pass line wagers then I am out. Obviously the worry here is losing on the come out roll, but I'll take my chances.

Any one had any luck trying this method?
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
  • Threads: 112
  • Posts: 5328
Joined: Mar 8, 2011
September 14th, 2011 at 10:06:30 AM permalink
I am typing this while on the beach. I no longer work and sailed to this private beach on my 100 foot yacht. All due to my
negative progression system. PM me if you want to purchase it for only $99 and your promise to give me half of the first
$10,000 you win. I believe in sharing my wealth with others less fortunate,
SONBP2
SONBP2
  • Threads: 88
  • Posts: 289
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
September 14th, 2011 at 10:12:42 AM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

I am typing this while on the beach. I no longer work and sailed to this private beach on my 100 foot yacht. All due to my
negative progression system. PM me if you want to purchase it for only $99 and your promise to give me half of the first
$10,000 you win. I believe in sharing my wealth with others less fortunate,



Thanks for the non-responsive input. Additionally, my comment said nothing about over coming the house edge or that it was a winning strategy. The casinos obviously like their chances of a person not winning several pass line wagers in a row, its called the Fire Bet. You spend your money the way you want, I'll spend mine the way I want.
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
  • Threads: 112
  • Posts: 5328
Joined: Mar 8, 2011
September 14th, 2011 at 10:14:17 AM permalink
Does that mean you are not interested in purchasing ??
guido111
guido111
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 707
Joined: Sep 16, 2010
September 14th, 2011 at 12:39:41 PM permalink
Quote: SONBP2

I am thinking of playing a negative progression on the don't pass with a $25 starting bet, then $50, $100, $200. If the person makes 4 pass line wagers then I am out. Obviously the worry here is losing on the come out roll, but I'll take my chances.

Any one had any luck trying this method?


Nothing wrong with thinking.
I have not tried this method but one should have an idea of the probabilities of pass line win streaks. Almost anything can happen in a few short sessions.
At least 1 run of 4 or more pass line winners in 34 come out rolls is about a 2 in 3 chance
At least 2 runs of 4 or more pass line winners in 34 come out rolls is about a 1 in 4 chance
It gets much higher for a few hours of continuous play.

pass pass pass pass pass pass
2+ 3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+
17 cor 0.96467 0.71173 0.40085 0.19861 0.09331 0.04281
2 times 0.73810 0.23690 0.04770 0.00800 0.00110 0.00010
3 times 0.31610 0.02220 0.00040
34 cor 0.99893 0.92660 0.66981 0.39076 0.20381 0.10095
2 0.98540 0.66500 0.24030 0.06190 0.01300 0.00320
3 0.90920 0.31150 0.04150 0.00470 0.00060
4 0.69800 0.08230 0.00340 0.00010
50 cor 0.99996 0.97974 0.81154 0.52930 0.29547 0.15244
2 0.99920 0.87710 0.44800 0.14350 0.03900 0.01110
3 0.99160 0.63600 0.14830 0.02020 0.00230 0.00030
4 0.95730 0.33920 0.03180 0.00150
68 cor 1.00000 0.99524 0.89972 0.64788 0.38604 0.20685
2 0.99990 0.95990 0.62500 0.23910 0.06940 0.01840
3 0.99960 0.84400 0.31040 0.05630 0.00660 0.00060
4 0.99760 0.63240 0.10660 0.00820 0.00080 0.00030
136 cor 1.00000 0.99998 0.99075 0.88238 0.63493 0.38270
2 1.00000 0.99980 0.94350 0.60790 0.25300 0.07780
3 1.00000 0.99780 0.80970 0.31320 0.06710 0.01080
4 1.00000 0.98940 0.60650 0.11850 0.01160 0.00130
5 1.00000 0.96020 0.37450 0.03540 0.00130 0.00020
6 1.00000 0.90020 0.19030 0.00840 0.00010
7 1.00000 0.78750 0.08080 0.00160
SONBP2
SONBP2
  • Threads: 88
  • Posts: 289
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
September 14th, 2011 at 12:45:32 PM permalink
Excellent information. Like I said in my original post I have done well playing pass line and come bets with basically max odds. My weekly play has gone on for about 2 months now and I have made an overall small profit. However, I have seen zero runs of more than 4 pass line winners. I am usually at the table for about an hour go get something to eat or watch a show and then go play for another hour before leaving.

Thanks for the information.
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
  • Threads: 79
  • Posts: 2501
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
September 15th, 2011 at 12:05:09 PM permalink
Quote: SONBP2

I play craps a lot and have been playing more recently. I have a had a few nice winning sessions as well playing the pass line with 5x odds (or max odds) and continual come bets with 5x odds (or max odds). However, the best streak I have seen is where a guy won 4 pass line wagers in a row. Additionally I was at a table where a woman threw for about 20 minutes hit all kinds of numbers, but only won on the pass line twice.

I am thinking of playing a negative progression on the don't pass with a $25 starting bet, then $50, $100, $200. If the person makes 4 pass line wagers then I am out. Obviously the worry here is losing on the come out roll, but I'll take my chances.

Any one had any luck trying this method?



I was playing on a table at Paris last year and the young fellow next to me was playing this exact progression. No Lay odds, just the DP bet. No DC bets.
$25 DP, if he lost he went to $50, then $100, then $200.

Table was mostly cold. I was losing, and I was watching him steadily climb his stack. Then it happened. 4 come out 7/11s in a row, and just like that, he was in the hole with all of us right side players.

I think he was also making a few field bets, although he was winning many of them. Bottom line? He cashed $400 and left with $0.

That is what is most insidious about craps. DP and PL players are playing on opposite sides, yet many times I have seen both of us losing on the same table, playing the same rolls! Oh sure, one side wins and one side loses on any given play, but when all the plays are lumped together in a session, both sides generally end up losing to the house.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
SONBP2
SONBP2
  • Threads: 88
  • Posts: 289
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
September 15th, 2011 at 2:22:22 PM permalink
My friend here in Las Vegas is a craps dealer and he says the exact same thing. He says unless there is just one huge roll where a guy is playing pass line with max odds and come bets he rarely sees anyone walk away a winner. I would say you need to be in and out playing this system. Once you have made a certain amount of money you need to walk.
  • Jump to: