If I beat Wizard of Odds Play for Fun Baccarat is that anything?

I'm a sceptical guy, but always trying to invent a system. I like to test my crazy machinations on the Play for Fun baccarat game on the Wizardofodds.com site, plus on the Bodog game (for fun) suggested on the Wizard's site. After many "busts," as crazy as it seems to me, based on all I've read that no system will ever pay off with long term play, I have actually have created a system which will stay way under any casino table limits, and which beats Baccarat and never busts on both of those "for fun games" in literally hundreds of multi-hour sessions over several months.

Is my experience significant enough to warrant taking this to a real land based casino or are those games not realistic examples of baccarat hand distribution?

Quote: sardonic

Is my experience significant enough to warrant taking this to a real land based casino?

The short answer is "No."

You probably have simply been lucky, and attributed it to the system.

Sure, you can go to a casino and try it, but don't have any false expectations.

Quote: sardonic

Is my experience significant enough to warrant taking this to a real land based casino or are those games not realistic examples of baccarat hand distribution?

Both games realistically represent the real land casino experience. You've just had luck, so far.

It can really fool you. I once played at a play-for-fun craps game where I kept hedging my bets with "any 7" ... knowing better mind you. This is one of the worst betting system ideas ever, I knew it, but it really worked great! I finally just quit doing it so it wouldnt mess with my head.

Boy, if I had a dollar for every time I came across someone who thinks they had a sure betting system...........

Quote: sardonic

Is my experience significant enough to warrant taking this to a real land based casino

I'd empty out the bank account, cash in the retirement, borrow from neighbors and friends, and burn rubber to the casino.

OR

Practice it at home for few more months, examine every possible scenerio that can happen, and really find out whats going on. Its up to you..

Thanks so much for all the replies. That is what I suspected (probably not going to be worth while as a method), but with the knowledge that those two games are realistic representations of the real thing, I am going to vigorously test for a while longer. I am always looking for (expecting) that series of busts... that so often happens. However, I'll keep my fingers crossed.

Quote: sardonic

I am going to vigorously test for a while longer.

And when you think you've done enough, you haven't. You'll know when testing is over, don't push it.

The sad thing is that the more thoroughly you test with positive results, the more the sure you get ... and the less likely you are to win when you finally play for real money, because after all these successful sessions, a huge loss becomes more and more due.

Quote: weaselman

The sad thing is that the more thoroughly you test with positive results, the more the sure you get ... and the less likely you are to win when you finally play for real money, because after all these successful sessions, a huge loss becomes more and more due.

!!!! Or I'm missing the sarcasm....

Quote: weaselman

The sad thing is that the more thoroughly you test with positive results, the more the sure you get ... and the less likely you are to win when you finally play for real money, because after all these successful sessions, a huge loss becomes more and more due.

this was indeed probably sarcasm, BUT, how much do you want to bet that's exactly how it will go and seemingly for that reason!

I play the Wizzards Baccarat game when I'm bored, which is quite a bit. I follow the last decision going up one with a loss and down one with a win, I've never lost. I think there might be a flaw in the game. I'm sure not taking my money and running to play based on any on line game. You can not beat a negative game.

Quote: weaselman

The sad thing is that the more thoroughly you test with positive results, the more the sure you get ... and the less likely you are to win when you finally play for real money, because after all these successful sessions, a huge loss becomes more and more due.

If you haven't seen any huge losses for a long time of testing, I'm talking about hours a day for months, you might have a system immune to it and find you're playing close to even most of the time, losing at the house edge. You may not win in the casino, but neither will you lose your shirt.

You shouldn't be testing your system with live play, because you can't play enough hands. You should hire a programmer to run a computer simulation. You can probably find one for $50 to $100 on Elance or similar.

As MichaelBluejay points out, if you're really serious then hire a comptuter programmer for a relatively small amount of money to test it.

I really hope weaselman's comments were an attempt at humour. I did laugh out loud for real. That was actually really good if he intended that. Kind of cruel though in a way. In short, your betting system probably sucks and still maintains the house edge and you would lose eventually. We can't say for certain without knowing what it is. I am not a maths expert by any means. However, it would be an extremely rare event, but not impossible, that you figured out some sure betting system on baccarat that can beat the game and remove the house edge.

Quote: sardonic

That is what I suspected (probably not going to be worth while as a method),

Okay, then, will you share it with us for fun? Always interesting to see what other people have come up with, and if it's not based on something from nineteenth-century France, then it's got definite novelty value.

Hey you should go get a promo code from BacSup to download his new baccarat supreme game on the Apple AppStore. He may build in an autoplay feature and money management designer if enough of us request it through feedback. :) As far as I have seen so far, the shoes that are generated by baccarat supreme is spot on with the types of shoes you could expect from those shuffle master card shufflers seen in the casinos.

I have continued to play the free baccarat game from this site as I said in my original post. At some point a new version of the software was presented which does seem to be a better interface. I have continued to play my method with the new version.

This has become an enjoyable diversion for me and I just enjoy giving it a go whenever the tedium or tension of my business activities leads me to want a fun break. Sometimes I will go weeks without playing, but I have consistently tested my method often inviting others who see me taking a break with it to a challenge.

The results are consistent. It wins predictably. I have tried some variations just for more fun and most fail. A couple of others are also winners, but not on the scale as my "standard" approach.

However, I haven't taken it to a casino really because my business generates a generous income for me and has continued to grow steadily for the past twenty years. (and that requires virtually the bulk of my waking hours). But, what this exercise shows me is that probably there are many system players in the casinos who know methods that work and use system play as their businesses (or that these free games have no relevance to casino play).

Quote: sardonic

Is my experience significant enough to warrant taking this to a real land based casino?

No, just PM me your system and I'll let you know how it goes on tomorrow night's voyage.

That's quite amusing... evidently, you're thinking that perhaps a "water based" casino would be a better test than a land based one.

Quote: sardonic

what this exercise shows me is that probably there are many system players in the casinos who know methods that work and use system play as their businesses.

No, that's a ridiculous conclusion. It's like flipping a coin 100 times, getting 53 heads, and then concluding that the odds of getting heads is 53%.

As I told you, but which you ignored, you simply can't play enough hands live to test your system. You have to have someone program a computer simulation to run through millions of hands. When you do that, you'll find that your system is an overall loser.

Quote: sardonic

That's quite amusing... evidently, you're thinking that perhaps a "water based" casino would be a better test than a land based one.

Oh no, its just that a water based casino is the nearest one wherein I may legally play craps, so when I take a break from craps, I'll play your system at Baccarat. If it works I'll have the winnings.

Quote: sardonic

I have continued to play the free baccarat game from this site as I said in my original post. At some point a new version of the software was presented which does seem to be a better interface. I have continued to play my method with the new version.

This has become an enjoyable diversion for me and I just enjoy giving it a go whenever the tedium or tension of my business activities leads me to want a fun break. Sometimes I will go weeks without playing, but I have consistently tested my method often inviting others who see me taking a break with it to a challenge.

The results are consistent. It wins predictably. I have tried some variations just for more fun and most fail. A couple of others are also winners, but not on the scale as my "standard" approach.

However, I haven't taken it to a casino really because my business generates a generous income for me and has continued to grow steadily for the past twenty years. (and that requires virtually the bulk of my waking hours). But, what this exercise shows me is that probably there are many system players in the casinos who know methods that work and use system play as their businesses (or that these free games have no relevance to casino play).

here's the thing... if you understand anything about the basics of statistics and probability, you would know GOING IN that it's impossible to devise a betting system to beat a negative game. so you wouldn't even waste your time "testing" it on a free-play game online.

if you want to beat baccarat, do what phil ivey did. find a few dealers dumb enough to turn around the 8s and 9s for you and then use the sorted edges to bet with an advantage, knowing the first card.

Oh, I'm just having fun with it. If I believed with any conviction that this was a viable system that would really work in actual casinos, I would publish it on the web (including right here in this forum), so that the casinos would have to deal with droves of people playing it, taking down the game. Evidence of how I feel about it in my heart-of-hearts is how I respond to my several friends who are gambling enthusiasts who have begged me for it. I haven't given it to them for fear they would meet their eventual gambler's ruin. My comments to them (although I have beaten everyone I have ever played head to head with it in friendly competition) are that there just isn't enough data to justify me giving it to them in good conscience. But, it sure does make for a fun parlor activity. I play using the 100 dollar chips as my base unit. I only ever use a very conservative three step negative progression (not a martingale) and that progression isn't called upon with every loss (so it never could be a blow-out should things go awry). What's interesting is that I have never lost the $10,000 starting bankroll and I always play to at least a 10 unit profit ($1000, the way I play) before quitting a session. Sure, these are likely just a series of weird happenstances, but I'm having a ball with it.

It's just fun. I sometimes play a little solitaire too, which is what this baccarat online game is like to me from a mental release standpoint. I still feel that my two year testing success with this does indicate that (like I stated) there are "probably" many system players who have their own methods that work with enough of a percentage (and that includes just plain luck) that they use system play in the casinos as their businesses. In my own business career as an entrepreneur (like many others who maintain profitability after five years) I have beaten the odds. I do employ unique business techniques (my product selection methods and marketing systems) and take a lot of "out of left field" chances, so there is a lot of just plain blind good luck involved as well. I think that if talented people applied the same entrepreneurial sense (or recklessness) to casino gambling, they would have similar success ratios (and failure ratios) to what we find in the business world.

But, I am not naïve. I don't think I've found the holy grail. But it is fun and it continues to astound me and my friends and acquaintances who try to play me in some friendly competition.

Glad to have the feedback that in answer to my original question I posed back in this thread in 2011, beating the Play for Fun game isn't "anything."

Quote: Wizard

Both games realistically represent the real land casino experience. You've just had luck, so far.

Not to encourage bad behavior or anything, but the best time to go to the casino is when your luck is running high. My luck seems to be very streaky, but I have had periods when good luck would follow me around for a day or two, and periods when bad luck would follow me around for a month or two. Gotta get in while the gettin's good! :)

Well, here is another update about my "system" which I first posted about way back in 2011. I took the advice of the various sages on this site and I also listened to my own voice of experience from past failed in-casino gambling trips and I haven't darkened the door of a casino since 2011 (I can't place real bets online, because I live in the US).

However, I still enjoy, every once in a while, playing the free games for baccarat (the Just For Fun game on this site and the demo games on Bovada and other sites advertised here) using that same silly system I talked about in my first post. I use it to relax and still I can say that after literally hundreds of games it has yet to lose. However, I've never tested it for actual gambling because I am convinced that these free games are not representations of actual play and I really do take the word of those mathematical experts who advise that systems won't work in the casinos. I make my personal income from my business ventures (which are often a form of gambling themselves) and really don't need to play for money. Plus, the prospect of "working" in a casino as a professional gambler is not appealing to me anyway (although if you had a real "holy grail" I guess you would go for one big haul before they changed the rules or banned you).

Like I mentioned once before, I have never shared my silly method with anyone (even friends) for fear that someone would put their faith in it and risk their life savings and lose everything. That's too much of a burden for me to want to carry. I only hope that others can, like I did, take the advice of those wise mathematicians who frequent this site and not think that you have proven a system because your method of play beats free online games.

I encourage you guys to keep up the diligence in debunking crazy gambling notions.

Congrats on updating us in another system teaser that he zero chance that it works

Quote: Wizardofnothing

Congrats on updating us in another system teaser that he zero chance that it works

Well, I waited three years to post an update, however not to tease, but to encourage other kindly expert folks like you who are there to give advice to the naive (like me) that as you said, there is "zero chance that it works."

Like I tell everyone, you should go for the Nobel prize, you found a way to multiply numbers that are smaller than one and get a number bigger than one. Use the Nobel prize money to bankroll your gambling

Seriously it's a tough one, adjusting a betting strategy on the fly is very misleading, Like in craps when you hear stories from DIs: oh I wasn't hitting anything then I readjusted my grip and the 6s started coming in. They basically have no clue if they are on the winning side of variance or if their adjustments had any effect.

Quote: sardonic

Well, here is another update about my "system" which I first posted about way back in 2011 .... I use it to relax and still I can say that after literally hundreds of games it has yet to lose.

Surely you mean hundreds of sessions! Anything else would just be absolutely incredible.

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...I am convinced that these free games are not representations of actual play . . .

Well you should listen to Mike when he assures you that they are.

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Like I mentioned once before, I have never shared my silly method with anyone (even friends) for fear that someone would put their faith in it and risk their life savings and lose everything.

Now you're just teasing.

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I encourage you guys to keep up the diligence in debunking crazy gambling notions.

Still teasing.

Consider this:-
With a game with modest house edge ( say up to 2% ) the chance of doubling your bankroll with pretty much any betting 'system' is not too far off 50%: Your chances of quadrupling your bankroll is not to far off 25% and the chances of increasing your bankroll ten-fold are not too far off 10%. 10% events are not so uncommon in life.
That's where Bankroll is the maximum amount that you make available to put at risk. The bigger your average bet, the less significant is the house edge. So such schemes as Martingale have a better chance of doubling your money if you make one bankroll sized bet on say red/black at roulette. The smaller your average bet, the greater your chance of going bust before reaching your target profit.

The great thing about those 'play money' pretend games is that you can top up your bankroll at will, so if you bust out your initial $1000, well, hey just top up another $1000 and when you win, withdraw or forget about that top up.

Apply this formula to your historic results:-

P = 100x(Amount you would have in your bankroll now if you'd played for real exactly as you played)/(Maximum amount you would have been in the hole if you'd dared to play for real.)

What is your percentage value P?

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The great thing about those 'play money' pretend games is that you can top up your bankroll at will,

I have never "topped up" on the "play money" pretend games. Anytime I start a new session I start with the amount provided (such as the $10,000 start sum for the Play for Fun Baccarat) and play as my unit 1% of the start bankroll (in that case $100). I just play, aiming for a win of ten units before I even consider quitting. If time is a factor, I call it a session after winning my 10 units. But, I often (if I have the time) have continued to play until the bankroll is doubled ($20,000) and called that my session ending signal. I've done that probably 100 or more times in the past five years. Then, whenever I have time to play again, it always starts me off anew (without any historical balance to play with).

Quote:

Apply this formula to your historic results:-

P = 100x(Amount you would have in your bankroll now if you'd played for real exactly as you played)/(Maximum amount you would have been in the hole if you'd dared to play for real.)

What is your percentage value P?

I haven't kept records, other than the mental record that it never had a time where the house maximum for a $100 unit (in land casinos where I have played) was even close to being reached or the starting bankroll was ever depleted and always my goal of at least a ten units win ($1000) was reached before I quit play. But, after all this time I can venture a guess that the multi-year total is many 100's of ten unit wins.

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Now you're just teasing.

Well, you are correct. While my intentions have been sincere based on my original question (which has been answered to my satisfaction) any recap bringing it up again (and even answering your questions) does become just a tease. I really don't want to do that so I won't post in the thread anymore. In fact, I would be happy for the thread to be deleted and I won't ever bring it up again. I do appreciate the advice I received and I have obeyed it. But, at this point the topic serves no purpose other than to frustrate others. So if the moderator would now delete the topic I would be pleased and I'm sure others would be as well.

Quote: sardonic

I have never "topped up" on the "play money" pretend games. Anytime I start a new session I start with the amount provided (such as the $10,000 start sum for the Play for Fun Baccarat) . . . If time is a factor, I call it a session after winning my 10 units. But, I often (if I have the time) have continued to play until the bankroll is doubled ($20,000) and called that my session ending signal. I've done that probably 100 or more times in the past five years.

I haven't kept records, other than the mental record that it never had a time where the house maximum for a $100 unit (in land casinos where I have played) was even close to being reached or the starting bankroll was ever depleted and always my goal of at least a ten units win ($1000) was reached before I quit play. But, after all this time I can venture a guess that the multi-year total is many 100's of ten unit wins.

At least 100 x 10% up sessions eh? No down sessions? Good on you.
Sorry to hear that you have a proven fantastic (is there a more superlative word?) winning system and the 'experts' here dissuaded you from playing for real money. I recommend that you gather together $10,000 and take this system to a real casino. $1,000 per day is not a bad hobby wage and after 10 days you can insure yourself against a totally unprecedented wipeout.

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So if the moderator would now delete the topic I would be pleased and I'm sure others would be as well.

By what right do you expect that? (rhetorical)

Quote: sardonic

I have never "topped up" on the "play money" pretend games. Anytime I start a new session I start with the amount provided (such as the $10,000 start sum for the Play for Fun Baccarat) and play as my unit 1% of the start bankroll (in that case $100). I just play, aiming for a win of ten units before I even consider quitting. If time is a factor, I call it a session after winning my 10 units. But, I often (if I have the time) have continued to play until the bankroll is doubled ($20,000) and called that my session ending signal. I've done that probably 100 or more times in the past five years. Then, whenever I have time to play again, it always starts me off anew (without any historical balance to play with).


I haven't kept records, other than the mental record that it never had a time where the house maximum for a $100 unit (in land casinos where I have played) was even close to being reached or the starting bankroll was ever depleted and always my goal of at least a ten units win ($1000) was reached before I quit play. But, after all this time I can venture a guess that the multi-year total is many 100's of ten unit wins.


Well, you are correct. While my intentions have been sincere based on my original question (which has been answered to my satisfaction) any recap bringing it up again (and even answering your questions) does become just a tease. I really don't want to do that so I won't post in the thread anymore. In fact, I would be happy for the thread to be deleted and I won't ever bring it up again. I do appreciate the advice I received and I have obeyed it. But, at this point the topic serves no purpose other than to frustrate others. So if the moderator would now delete the topic I would be pleased and I'm sure others would be as well.

Well, that's too bad; I was going to welcome you and your update. But your discussion is appropriate and well-said, so we'll leave it up here. Your continued participation would also be encouraged, on this and other topics, should you choose to chime in more often. :)