Joined: Jul 8, 2010
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May 4th, 2011 at 10:46:01 PM permalink
First of all, I hate calling this thread for the "mathematically challenged". Although I most definitely am.

It seems to me, for the most part, what most "system bettors" really want to know is the liklihood of achieving a goal in a fixed amount of time with a a fixed unit roll to start with while betting a certain way every time.

They may misspeak a little and sometimes call it "reducing house edge" but what I think they really mean is how often will I come out ahead. I think they know nothing can change the house edge. They are not stupid just because they post in this forum.

For the most part they may not specify starting unit rolls and rules specific enough to simulate ONE system.

No one here, it seems to me, very often addresses the question from the point of view of, for example, say John Doe who goes to Vegas 2 weeks a year, plays 8 hrs/day at a full crap table (100 decisions/hr say) on the Pass Line for 40 years playing Oscars Grind with a 500 unit roll and wants to know his chances of being a lifetime winner.

Maybe John Doe even knows, despite being mathematically challenged, that a 500 unit roll will win one unit 99.706% of the time. Maybe he even knows the average length of a "winning" session and the average length of a "lose entire roll" session. And the avg bet of a winning session and the avg bet of a losing session. Who knows, maybe he has really committed a 25000 unit roll over his lifetime so if and when he loses his original 500 unit roll, all he has to to do is win one unit with an enlarged 500 unit roll before reverting back to his original 500 unit roll.

Is this too mathematically challenging to figure out John Doe's liklihood of finishing a lifetime winner with an initial 25000 (2 500 unit rolls) unit roll?

It is for me but I'd like to hear thoughts on how to figure this out.

If I have mis-used Miplet's software in my percentages - my bad. I just chose Oscar Grind because his software allowed me to get this far with my question.
Thank God he is sometimes willing to post in the "mathematically challenged" thread.

Put another way, would Wiz allow me to come to his house and use this sytem given the limit of my lifetime playing career?
Joined: Jul 11, 2010
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May 5th, 2011 at 4:21:53 AM permalink
I don't understand what you call "a session"? If it is a trip to Vegas, you got 40 of them, or 80 if you count each week separately. If it is a day of play, there are 560 of them in your setup. Either way, where do 2500 rolls come in here?
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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May 5th, 2011 at 5:51:11 AM permalink
Most players focus on a session or a day or a trip.
Players may have a lifetime of gambling but its the casino that has the bankroll to keep going and going and going.
A player may be interested in his probability of a big win or total ruin, but he generally knows his actual results will be "down a bit or up a teensy bit". Its just then Lady Variance smiles down upon him and he does happen be up a good whopping bit that he has the option to manage his funds well or squander them unwisely.
The probability doesn't change.
The casino doesn't much care if someone wins big, because the casino knows its a gambler and the money will come back to them, probably sooner than later.

We all know, with some degree of precision, that there is this skewed curve showing the probability of our results. We all look at the middle and the two ends ... and we all see ourselves at the extreme plus side same as when we buy a lottery ticket or plop a few quarters into a slot machine. Its not the math ... its the hope!
Joined: Jul 8, 2010
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May 9th, 2011 at 5:18:40 PM permalink
was a little unclear - or more than that.

Maybe I should have used the term "trials" or "series" in that I meant "whatever you want to call it" is when I either achieved the Oscar Grind goal of winning one unit or losing my original 500 unit roll betting in the way the Oscar Grind betting system says to bet.

So if I win a "series" or "trial" or "session" I am up one unit for that "series" or "trial" or "session". I begin the next "series" with another original 500 unit roll.

Like, say, assume, in single-zero roulette I will win my 1 unit 99.58 % of the time. I will lose my 500 unit roll the other 0.0042% of the time. When I win a unit, a "trial" or a "series" or a "session" the avg number of spins of the wheel is, say, 6.58. When I lose my original 500 unit roll, the avg number of spins is say, 128 spins.

When I win a "series" my avg bet is 4.5 units. When I lose my roll my avg bet is 20.7 units.

Assume some number of spins per hour. Like maybe 35 decisions per hour at a full roulette table.

How likely is it I will be ahead after some period of time? Like in my lifetime?

Again, I'm sorry, I was also unclear about "2 500 unit" rolls. What I meant was assume I really have an original 25000 unit lifetime roll and if, and when , I were to lose my original 500 unit roll, I could replace it with another 500 unit roll of a higher $denomination - say $500. If I were to win just one "series" I would revert to playing with a 500 unit $1 roll again. I f I lost that first time I am broke.

Basically how would I figure my chances of being ahead after, in this case, say 112000 spins of the wheel?

While I realize perhaps most "systems" being proposed here might not contain enough detail to actually sim, original roll rarely specified, goal rarely specified, etc - I think the question that is most wanted answered is how likely will I be ahead after a certain amount of fixed time rather than I will be behind a billion decisions later.

Anyway - that's what I like about betting systems - the increased chances chances of finishing ahead in a fixed amount of time.

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