Martingalers. Start betting right away. Do not wait!

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/4153-twist-on-martingale-system-trying-to-figure-out-the-math-here/2/
I started a new thread from a post by "martin"

Quote: Martin

Another way to do this and one I've seen people actually use is on the field (confession - I've even used it).

Wait for several non-field numbers to come in a row and then start your martingale. Can't possibly work but once again I've never seen twelve non-field numbers come in a row (I have seen eight) but just because I haven't seen it doesn't make the math change.

Why do so many casino game players always suggest to "wait"... then start betting.

I say "Stop Waiting!" Bet right away!!!

Craps Example:
More field winning rolls happen right after a field has just rolled. Even computer simulations and the math proves it. And the longer you play the winning percentages will get closer and closer to the actual theoretical numbers.

The table below shows that 69.13% of field wins hit within 2 rolls of a last field roll. That is better than 2 out of 3 and almost 7 out of 10!
How about betting for 4 rolls right after a field has just rolled. You will win your bet 9 out of 10 times!
Even better if you have the BIG bankroll... Bet for the first 8 rolls after a field has shown and you will win your martingale 99% of the time. 99 out of 100!
Damn!
You will need a Brinks Truck to haul all that cash out of the casino!
Sounds too good to be true? No!
It works and you do not have to pay me anything!

But wait! Now we can wait a minute. What is the catch? Well if you martingale for 4 rolls and do not win, you have a larger than flat betting loss to overcome. But then some larger bets will be paid 2 or 3 times for the 2 or 12 when it does roll and a bet is made.

Field Bet Frequencies
roll	relative frequency	cumulative frequency
1	44.4444%	44.4444%
2	24.6914%	69.1358%
3	13.7174%	82.8532%
4	7.6208%	90.4740%
5	4.2338%	94.7078%
6	2.3521%	97.0599%
7	1.3067%	98.3666%
8	0.7260%	99.0926%
9	0.4033%	99.4959%
10	0.2241%	99.7199%
11	0.1245%	99.8444%
12	0.0692%	99.9136%
13	0.0384%	99.9520%
14	0.0213%	99.9733%
15	0.0119%	99.9852%
16	0.0066%	99.9918%
17	0.0037%	99.9954%

Roulette, Craps 7 bet, Blackjack players...
Roulette players say "But I do not like playing Craps. Too fast and you can not understand the language. Can I still martingale at Roulette?"
YES!!!
Just do not "wait" for X amount of spins before red or black or a column has not shown.
Start right away! nope27 blog
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/nope27/blog/

has the numbers for you!
27 Red just spun!

Bet RED for the next 8 spins, martingale your losses and you will win 99.411% of the time. Way better than 99 out of 100! 994 out of 1000.

OK, back to reality...what a sales pitch!
So you Martingale players, the poll is for you. Should you "wait" and the start betting. I say 'NO!"

Bet with the math and your bankroll if you have to martingale.
I heard a player say once in a casino," I have to double my bets to increase my chances of winning, and I do win almost all the time!"
And you know, he is correct. He just forgot to look at the times he did lose...and those losses were very large, way bigger than all his wins combined...

Back to Your Regularly Scheduled Program

There is an option missing to the poll: "Wait if you like, or bet right away, it doesn't matter one tiny bit."

Up next: the most dramatic rose ceremony. Ever.

I usually wait, but not for any superstitious reasons. I just like to come in on a new shooter/shoe during the natural break in action. Additionally, I like to get a sense of the people at the table before I cash in to make sure that I won't be annoyed or smoked out.

Quote: 7winner

The table below shows that 69.13% of field wins hit within 2 rolls of a last field roll. That is better than 2 out of 3 and almost 7 out of 10!

69.13% of field wins also occur within 2 rolls of the last missed field roll. Fancy that.

One time several years ago Mrs. Slyther and I were throwing dice late night at Monte Carlo. A group of semi-obnoxious kids came in and were trying to chart the field rolls. The leader had a notepad and would write outcomes down then give the signal and they'd all jump onto the field. I found it quite amusing. Mrs. Slyther felt a little uncomfortable and the dealers weren't happy with that. Anyway these tikes were soon busto and left.

I feel so sorry for field players. I was playing next to field player for about four hours last time I played. It was a double 12/double 2 field. It was just painful to watch this guy keep pulling out money trying to get back to even on his field progression. I didn't say anything; not because he was a bad guy, but because I don't believe in giving out unsolicited advice to players. Some lessons are hard learned.

I don't play systems, nor do I wait for a new shooter or a new shoe, etc. And in poker, I rarely wait for the big blind rather than post.


However, there is a VERY valid reason to wait:

At table games, waiting can help you stretch your bankroll.

At poker, it gives you the opportunity to observe the other players for free.

Quote: teddys

I feel so sorry for field players. I was playing next to field player for about four hours last time I played. It was a double 12/double 2 field. It was just painful to watch this guy keep pulling out money trying to get back to even on his field progression. I didn't say anything; not because he was a bad guy, but because I don't believe in giving out unsolicited advice to players. Some lessons are hard learned.

At the Monte Carlo Nights I get a lot of field bettors since it is such a simple bet. And when one person wins the "follow the leader" mentality is unbelievable. Sometimes my bank has nearly broken. But every time it happen I just keep dealing, knowing they will bust fast on the field. And it happens every time. Even though I do know better, I sometimes swear these people get hot early and then start losing as the night goes on. To my thinking this is probably just that early hits stimulate more betting and chance is good to them, then the HA comes into play.