Winning at roulette
May 21st, 2025 at 12:02:56 PM
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I'm sorry you made it seem as if you knew much more than you are indicating now. Some people might be confused and believe the contents of your OP.Quote: EvenBobQuote: AxelWolfClocking wheels has nothing to do with imperfect wheels<<<that's tracking/playing biased wheels. The "old wheels" were easier to CLOCK because of the deeper frets made the balls drop and stick much quicker into the predicted section of the wheel. An imperfect wheel, if unnoticed by a clocker, might make his job harder since it would be less likely the ball would land in the area he clocked it to.Quote: EvenBobQuote: AutomaticMonkeyQuote: EvenBob
There is thinking you can be a casino game and actually beating it. Thinking you can beat it and a dollar will get you a coffee at McDonald's.
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Wheel clocking is a skill I have never investigated and practiced. But it looks like fun!
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Wheel clocking is a tremendous amount of work and involves a tremendous amount of risk and it really only worked well on the old wheels that were imperfect. The new wheels are almost flawless and there are people who clock them but they are few and far between.
link to original post
Regardless, clocking and biased wheel play are different things.
Aside from the math involved in calculating your advantage.
Wheel Clocking requires a specialized visual skill, timing, or consistency of speeds, whereas biased wheel play mostly only requires tracking the numbers in order to identify a biased(imperfect) wheel.
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Clicking clocking clucking whatever it's called I never paid any attention to it. To me it's a desperate way to play there are far better ways.
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I'm almost certain that if someone made a mistake like that, you would have raked them over the coals and claimed they had no clue what they were talking about.
If you haven't paid attention or did it yourself, how would you possibly know there are far better ways?
Small teams have made millions of dollars on biased wheels. How much have you made on "far better ways"?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
May 21st, 2025 at 1:22:46 PM
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Quote: EvenBobI'm sorry you made it seem as if you knew much more than you are indicating now. Some people might be confused and believe the contents of your OP.Quote: AxelWolfQuote: EvenBob
Regardless, clocking and biased wheel play are different things.
Aside from the math involved in calculating your advantage.
Wheel Clocking requires a specialized visual skill, timing, or consistency of speeds, whereas biased wheel play mostly only requires tracking the numbers in order to identify a biased(imperfect) wheel.
link to original post
Clicking clocking clucking whatever it's called I never paid any attention to it. To me it's a desperate way to play there are far better ways.
link to original post
I'm almost certain that if someone made a mistake like that, you would have raked them over the coals and claimed they had no clue what they were talking about.
If you haven't paid attention or did it yourself, how would you possibly know there are far better ways?
Small teams have made millions of dollars on biased wheels. How much have you made on "far better ways"?
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Usually when any kind of AP tells me something is available or possible, I take them at their word, and don't expect any more information from them. It's not like I give away all my secrets. Some of the prestidigitation I have done at the tables I would not admit to or encourage anyone else to do.
So I believe that: wheel clockers have made a lot of money, biased wheel players have made a lot of money, and that EvenBob knows more profitable things to do, can all be true at the same time. We all have different skills.
May 21st, 2025 at 2:15:03 PM
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When he says, "far better ways", it's safe to say he is referring to his system(he calls it a method, but it's not).Quote: AutomaticMonkeyQuote: EvenBobI'm sorry you made it seem as if you knew much more than you are indicating now. Some people might be confused and believe the contents of your OP.Quote: AxelWolfQuote: EvenBob
Regardless, clocking and biased wheel play are different things.
Aside from the math involved in calculating your advantage.
Wheel Clocking requires a specialized visual skill, timing, or consistency of speeds, whereas biased wheel play mostly only requires tracking the numbers in order to identify a biased(imperfect) wheel.
link to original post
Clicking clocking clucking whatever it's called I never paid any attention to it. To me it's a desperate way to play there are far better ways.
link to original post
I'm almost certain that if someone made a mistake like that, you would have raked them over the coals and claimed they had no clue what they were talking about.
If you haven't paid attention or did it yourself, how would you possibly know there are far better ways?
Small teams have made millions of dollars on biased wheels. How much have you made on "far better ways"?
link to original post
Usually when any kind of AP tells me something is available or possible, I take them at their word, and don't expect any more information from them. It's not like I give away all my secrets. Some of the prestidigitation I have done at the tables I would not admit to or encourage anyone else to do.
So I believe that: wheel clockers have made a lot of money, biased wheel players have made a lot of money, and that EvenBob knows more profitable things to do, can all be true at the same time. We all have different skills.
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You'll have to catch up on his system that he claims makes enough to pay his retired frugal lifestyle bills.
IIRC his system uses things such as repeaters, sleepers, and patterns or something like that. Basically, he is using past results to make what he calls educated guesses for future bets. He claims outrageous hit rates, possibly upwards of 80% on even money bets/ payouts.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
May 21st, 2025 at 2:19:04 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfI'm sorry you made it seem as if you knew much more than you are indicating now. Some people might be confused and believe the contents of your OP.Quote: EvenBobQuote: AxelWolfClocking wheels has nothing to do with imperfect wheels<<<that's tracking/playing biased wheels. The "old wheels" were easier to CLOCK because of the deeper frets made the balls drop and stick much quicker into the predicted section of the wheel. An imperfect wheel, if unnoticed by a clocker, might make his job harder since it would be less likely the ball would land in the area he clocked it to.Quote: EvenBobQuote: AutomaticMonkeyQuote: EvenBob
There is thinking you can be a casino game and actually beating it. Thinking you can beat it and a dollar will get you a coffee at McDonald's.
link to original post
Wheel clocking is a skill I have never investigated and practiced. But it looks like fun!
link to original post
Wheel clocking is a tremendous amount of work and involves a tremendous amount of risk and it really only worked well on the old wheels that were imperfect. The new wheels are almost flawless and there are people who clock them but they are few and far between.
link to original post
Regardless, clocking and biased wheel play are different things.
Aside from the math involved in calculating your advantage.
Wheel Clocking requires a specialized visual skill, timing, or consistency of speeds, whereas biased wheel play mostly only requires tracking the numbers in order to identify a biased(imperfect) wheel.
link to original post
Clicking clocking clucking whatever it's called I never paid any attention to it. To me it's a desperate way to play there are far better ways.
link to original post
I'm almost certain that if someone made a mistake like that, you would have raked them over the coals and claimed they had no clue what they were talking about.
If you haven't paid attention or did it yourself, how would you possibly know there are far better ways?
Small teams have made millions of dollars on biased wheels. How much have you made on "far better ways"?
link to original post
Lost millions too. I used to know some of thiose people. Too much risk, I'm risk adverse. Risk of losing a lot, risk of being banned forever. I prefer slow and easy under the radar.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
May 21st, 2025 at 2:58:20 PM
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I Australia you can't be banned for winning same as bookmakers can't ban you if you win. Because we gamble so much we are protected by laws.
May 21st, 2025 at 3:09:22 PM
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I highly doubt you knew any legitimate advantage players who lost Millions playing roulette with a mathematical Advantage they could prove on paper.Quote: EvenBobQuote: AxelWolfI'm sorry you made it seem as if you knew much more than you are indicating now. Some people might be confused and believe the contents of your OP.Quote: EvenBobQuote: AxelWolfClocking wheels has nothing to do with imperfect wheels<<<that's tracking/playing biased wheels. The "old wheels" were easier to CLOCK because of the deeper frets made the balls drop and stick much quicker into the predicted section of the wheel. An imperfect wheel, if unnoticed by a clocker, might make his job harder since it would be less likely the ball would land in the area he clocked it to.Quote: EvenBobQuote: AutomaticMonkeyQuote: EvenBob
There is thinking you can be a casino game and actually beating it. Thinking you can beat it and a dollar will get you a coffee at McDonald's.
link to original post
Wheel clocking is a skill I have never investigated and practiced. But it looks like fun!
link to original post
Wheel clocking is a tremendous amount of work and involves a tremendous amount of risk and it really only worked well on the old wheels that were imperfect. The new wheels are almost flawless and there are people who clock them but they are few and far between.
link to original post
Regardless, clocking and biased wheel play are different things.
Aside from the math involved in calculating your advantage.
Wheel Clocking requires a specialized visual skill, timing, or consistency of speeds, whereas biased wheel play mostly only requires tracking the numbers in order to identify a biased(imperfect) wheel.
link to original post
Clicking clocking clucking whatever it's called I never paid any attention to it. To me it's a desperate way to play there are far better ways.
link to original post
I'm almost certain that if someone made a mistake like that, you would have raked them over the coals and claimed they had no clue what they were talking about.
If you haven't paid attention or did it yourself, how would you possibly know there are far better ways?
Small teams have made millions of dollars on biased wheels. How much have you made on "far better ways"?
link to original post
Lost millions too. I used to know some of thiose people. Too much risk, I'm risk adverse. Risk of losing a lot, risk of being banned forever. I prefer slow and easy under the radar.
link to original post
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
May 21st, 2025 at 3:11:23 PM
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Quote: ThatDonGuyQuote: justme1961Don, bet #22 is $1008 X 2.1/3 = 706
If there is a loss at the end of each 3rd spin this is multiplied by 2.1
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In that case, what part of this am I doing wrong:
All bets are on the first and second dozens
First three bets are 2 on each dozen
Spin #1 - 36: -4
Spin #2 - 1: -2
Spin #3 - 0: -6
Spin #4 is indeed $4 on each doz but you don't bring forward the -6 on spin #3 as we have accounted for that in the new stake so the loss after spin #4 is -8. I didn't make that clear on my first post
Since two spins lost, the next three bets are 4 on each dozen
Spin #4 - 32: -14 (that's -6 from the first three, and -8 on this spin) LOSS -8
Spin #5 - 32 again: -22 LOSS -16
Spin #6 - 00: -30 LOSS -24
Three spins lost, so the next three bets are 8.5 (which is what you use) on each dozen: SPIN 7,8 & 9 ARE ALL $17
Spin #7 - 7: -21.5 (that's -30 after the first six, and +8.5 on this spin) WIN RETURN $51. $17 PROFIT
Spin #8 - 11: -13 WIN RETURN $51. $17 PROFIT
Spin #9 - 21: -4.5 WIN RETURN $51. $17 PROFIT
That's three wins, but you are behind 4.5 at this point.
SO AFTER 9 SPINS YOU HAVE SPENT $12 ON FIRST 3, $24 ON SECOND 3 AND $102 ON LAST 3 = $138. THE RETURN ON THE LAST 3 SPINS IS $153 LEAVING $15 PROFIT OR 11% POT.
This is what made me think that you had made a mistake in your description. There are a lot of cases like this where you will be behind after a run of 3 wins.
If you change your system so you multiply your bet by 4.2 after 3 losses (and 2.1 after 2), then a run of 3 wins will always return a profit, assuming you are allowed to bet enough to cover it. One of the arguments we have here is, "Why do betting limits exist?"; I am in the "for one, it's to prevent Martingale and other similar systems (like this one) from 'working' " camp. Without restrictions on time and bankroll, Martingale works 100% of the time.
Again, if I implemented it wrong, then what are the bets supposed to be, if the first three spins have 2 losses and the second three have 3 losses?
This uses a betting progression 1, 2, 4, 8, 17, 36, 76, 160, 336, 706, 1483, 3114, 6539
Note that each number is how much is bet on each dozen
The first column is the result; the second is the profit from using your stated method; the third is the profit if you multiply the bet by 4.2 instead of 2.1 after a round of 3 losses
L2 represents a 2-loss group of 3; L3 represents a 3-loss group; W represents a 3-win group that results in a bet reset
For example, "L2 L3 W" means:
1. Start with a bet of 1 on each dozen; 2 of the bets lost, so that's +1 for the win and -4 for the two losses, for a total of -3
2. Increase the bet to 2; all 3 bets lost, so that's another -12, bringing your total to -15
3. Increase the bet to 4; all 3 bets won, so that's +12, bringing your total to -3
Result Profit with
original
methodProfit with
revised
methodW 3 3 L2 W 3 3 L3 W 0 9 L2 L2 W 3 3 L3 L2 W 0 12 L2 L3 W -3 12 L3 L3 W -6 30 L2 L2 L2 W 3 3 L3 L2 L2 W 0 15 L2 L3 L2 W -3 15 L3 L3 L2 W -6 36 L2 L2 L3 W -9 18 L3 L2 L3 W -12 54 L2 L3 L3 W -15 45 L3 L3 L3 W -18 111 L2 L2 L2 L2 W 6 6 L3 L2 L2 L2 W 3 21 L2 L3 L2 L2 W 0 21 L3 L3 L2 L2 W -3 51 L2 L2 L3 L2 W -6 24 L3 L2 L3 L2 W -9 69 L2 L3 L3 L2 W -12 57 L3 L3 L3 L2 W -15 138 L2 L2 L2 L3 W -18 33 L3 L2 L2 L3 W -21 99 L2 L3 L2 L3 W -24 84 L3 L3 L2 L3 W -27 204 L2 L2 L3 L3 W -30 81 L3 L2 L3 L3 W -33 225 L2 L3 L3 L3 W -36 183 L3 L3 L3 L3 W -39 447 L2 L2 L2 L2 L2 W 12 12 L3 L2 L2 L2 L2 W 9 36 L2 L3 L2 L2 L2 W 6 33 L3 L3 L2 L2 L2 W 3 81 L2 L2 L3 L2 L2 W 0 36 L3 L2 L3 L2 L2 W -3 99 L2 L3 L3 L2 L2 W -6 81 L3 L3 L3 L2 L2 W -9 198 L2 L2 L2 L3 L2 W -12 42 L3 L2 L2 L3 L2 W -15 129 L2 L3 L2 L3 L2 W -18 108 L3 L3 L2 L3 L2 W -21 261 L2 L2 L3 L3 L2 W -24 102 L3 L2 L3 L3 L2 W -27 285 L2 L3 L3 L3 L2 W -30 231 L3 L3 L3 L3 L2 W -33 564 L2 L2 L2 L2 L3 W -39 69 L3 L2 L2 L2 L3 W -42 195 L2 L3 L2 L2 L3 W -45 168 L3 L3 L2 L2 L3 W -48 402 L2 L2 L3 L2 L3 W -51 156 L3 L2 L3 L2 L3 W -54 426 L2 L3 L3 L2 L3 W -57 348 L3 L3 L3 L2 L3 W -60 843 L2 L2 L2 L3 L3 W -63 156 L3 L2 L2 L3 L3 W -66 450 L2 L3 L2 L3 L3 W -69 375 L3 L3 L2 L3 L3 W -72 903 L2 L2 L3 L3 L3 W -75 342 L3 L2 L3 L3 L3 W -78 939 L2 L3 L3 L3 L3 W -81 762 L3 L3 L3 L3 L3 W -84 1,857
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May 21st, 2025 at 3:17:34 PM
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I use this on horse racing too with a different multiplier betting only the place (or show as the yanks call it.) Strike rate around 83% and I couldn't care less what Evenbob thinks. It works for me!
May 21st, 2025 at 4:09:10 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfI highly doubt you knew any legitimate advantage players who lost Millions playing roulette with a mathematical Advantage they could prove on paper.Quote: EvenBobQuote: AxelWolfI'm sorry you made it seem as if you knew much more than you are indicating now. Some people might be confused and believe the contents of your OP.Quote: EvenBobQuote: AxelWolfClocking wheels has nothing to do with imperfect wheels<<<that's tracking/playing biased wheels. The "old wheels" were easier to CLOCK because of the deeper frets made the balls drop and stick much quicker into the predicted section of the wheel. An imperfect wheel, if unnoticed by a clocker, might make his job harder since it would be less likely the ball would land in the area he clocked it to.Quote: EvenBobQuote: AutomaticMonkeyQuote: EvenBob
There is thinking you can be a casino game and actually beating it. Thinking you can beat it and a dollar will get you a coffee at McDonald's.
link to original post
Wheel clocking is a skill I have never investigated and practiced. But it looks like fun!
link to original post
Wheel clocking is a tremendous amount of work and involves a tremendous amount of risk and it really only worked well on the old wheels that were imperfect. The new wheels are almost flawless and there are people who clock them but they are few and far between.
link to original post
Regardless, clocking and biased wheel play are different things.
Aside from the math involved in calculating your advantage.
Wheel Clocking requires a specialized visual skill, timing, or consistency of speeds, whereas biased wheel play mostly only requires tracking the numbers in order to identify a biased(imperfect) wheel.
link to original post
Clicking clocking clucking whatever it's called I never paid any attention to it. To me it's a desperate way to play there are far better ways.
link to original post
I'm almost certain that if someone made a mistake like that, you would have raked them over the coals and claimed they had no clue what they were talking about.
If you haven't paid attention or did it yourself, how would you possibly know there are far better ways?
Small teams have made millions of dollars on biased wheels. How much have you made on "far better ways"?
link to original post
Lost millions too. I used to know some of thiose people. Too much risk, I'm risk adverse. Risk of losing a lot, risk of being banned forever. I prefer slow and easy under the radar.
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link to original post
Lose it and win it back. Till they don't.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
May 21st, 2025 at 4:28:39 PM
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Quote: justme1961Quote: ThatDonGuyQuote: justme1961Don, bet #22 is $1008 X 2.1/3 = 706
If there is a loss at the end of each 3rd spin this is multiplied by 2.1
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In that case, what part of this am I doing wrong:
All bets are on the first and second dozens
First three bets are 2 on each dozen
Spin #1 - 36: -4
Spin #2 - 1: -2
Spin #3 - 0: -6
Spin #4 is indeed $4 on each doz but you don't bring forward the -6 on spin #3 as we have accounted for that in the new stake so the loss after spin #4 is -8. I didn't make that clear on my first post
Since two spins lost, the next three bets are 4 on each dozen
Spin #4 - 32: -14 (that's -6 from the first three, and -8 on this spin) LOSS -8
Spin #5 - 32 again: -22 LOSS -16
Spin #6 - 00: -30 LOSS -24
Three spins lost, so the next three bets are 8.5 (which is what you use) on each dozen: SPIN 7,8 & 9 ARE ALL $17
Spin #7 - 7: -21.5 (that's -30 after the first six, and +8.5 on this spin) WIN RETURN $51. $17 PROFIT
Spin #8 - 11: -13 WIN RETURN $51. $17 PROFIT
Spin #9 - 21: -4.5 WIN RETURN $51. $17 PROFIT
That's three wins, but you are behind 4.5 at this point.
SO AFTER 9 SPINS YOU HAVE SPENT $12 ON FIRST 3, $24 ON SECOND 3 AND $102 ON LAST 3 = $138. THE RETURN ON THE LAST 3 SPINS IS $153 LEAVING $15 PROFIT OR 11% POT.
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Your description says to multiply the bet by 2.1 if you lost in the previous set of 3 spins. The bet for spins 4-6 was 4, so for 7-9, they should be 8.4, rounded to 8 (or 8.5) per dozen. Why do you say they should be 17?
If you increase your bet by 4.2x after all three of your spins in a group lose, then I calculated the returns on that in that table I posted; those are the numbers in the third column. For a run of 2 losses, 3 losses, and 3 wins, look next to "2L 3L W" and you will see that you profit 6 for every 1 in your original bet on each dozen; since your initial bet is 2, your profit is 12. The reason it is 12 and not 15 is, the third bet is 2 x 2.1 = 4.2 which rounds down to 4 per dozen, but you use 4.25.
However, my conclusion still stands - while your win percentage will be very high, the vast majority of your wins will be small, but if you do eventually lose, it will be such a high amount that it will be more than the total of your wins.
Your main mistake is your statement, "when you do strike 3 in a row you (WHICH YOU WILL)"; there is no guarantee of this, unless you have unlimited time, an unlimited bankroll, and a table where there is no maximum bet.
May 21st, 2025 at 5:01:22 PM
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The loss at spin 6 is -24. 24 x 2.1 is 50.4. Divide by 3 is 16.8 or 17. And it works for 2 spins instead of 3. Stakes may be a bit higher but you only need 2 wins in a row. If I was allowed to post files I could show you.
May 21st, 2025 at 5:53:00 PM
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Quote: justme1961The loss at spin 6 is -24. 24 x 2.1 is 50.4. Divide by 3 is 16.8 or 17. And it works for 2 spins instead of 3. Stakes may be a bit higher but you only need 2 wins in a row. If I was allowed to post files I could show you.
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I see what it is now. You multiply the amount you lost on the previous 3 spins by 2.1, then divide by 3. I am pretty sure I am describing the same thing but in a different way.
Let's say your bet on each dozen is X.
If you have 1 win and 2 losses, you gain X on the win, but lose 2X on each of the two losses, so your total loss is 3X; multiply by 2.1 and divide by 3 to get the next bet, which is 2.1 X - in other words, 2.1 times your previous bet.
If you have 3 losses, you lose 2X on each win, so your total loss is 6X; multiply by 2.1 and divide by 3 to get the next bet, which is 4.2 X - in other words, 4.2 times your previous bet.
My numbers in my previous table are still correct; just use the ones in the far right column. Yes, if you eventually get 3 wins in the same group of 3 bets, you will have made a profit since you started that sequence.
However, I stand by my statement: you are not always going to get a winning set before you either run out of money or get to the point where the amount you need to bet is more than the amount they will let you bet. This is the "flaw" with Martingale and pretty much all other "increase your bets when you lose, because you will win eventually, and when you do, you will make a profit overall" systems.
"But I haven't lost yet!"
On a 10-step Martingale of an even-money bet on a single-zero roulette wheel (i.e. keep playing until you lose 10 spins in a row), 60% of the time, you system will win 538 or more times in a row.
May 21st, 2025 at 6:03:34 PM
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Quote: ThatDonGuy
However, my conclusion still stands - while your win percentage will be very high, the vast majority of your wins will be small, but if you do eventually lose, it will be such a high amount that it will be more than the total of your wins.
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That's pretty much what I said. You can win doing this, you just can't win consistently and when you do have your big loss you'll never recover from it. It's not a matter of if you have it, it's a matter of when you have it because you're going to have it. Winning consistently at roulette is far more about managing your losses then it is about having a slam bam boom method for winning. If you can manage your losses the wins will take care of themselves.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
May 21st, 2025 at 6:29:27 PM
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This is not martingale although it seems pretty close. The 2.1 isn't plucked out of the air. It is based on the odds when you do win of 1/2 or 2/1 on.My horse racing stakes are based on a dividend of $1.23.
May 21st, 2025 at 7:38:58 PM
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Quote: justme1961This is not martingale although it seems pretty close. The 2.1 isn't plucked out of the air. It is based on the odds when you do win of 1/2 or 2/1 on.My horse racing stakes are based on a dividend of $1.23.
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It's not a true Martingale, but just like it, it is a "increase your bets when you lose so that if you do win, your win will make more money than all of your previous losses combined" system.
Again, let me point out: if your initial bet is 2 on each dozen, you can probably have 11 losses in a row before you reach the point where your bets exceed the house limit. The probability of having 11 losses in a row is about 1 / 1661.
2/3 of the time, you will have a sequence where you will win 673 times, and make 673 profits, before having 11 losses in a row. (50% of the time, that run of wins will reach 1151.)
The problem is, the amount of money you lose in those 11 losses in a row will, almost certainly, exceed the combined amount won in those 673 profits.
May 22nd, 2025 at 7:11:40 AM
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Here are some numbers I crunched:
This assumes that the bet progression is 1, 2, 4, 8, 17, 36, 76, 160, 336, 706, 1483, 3114, 6539, and that you stop either after a set of 3 wins or when your bet would exceed the table betting limit
"Max Bet" is the highest allowed bet on a particular dozen
"Mean" and "SD" are the mean and standard deviation of the final overall profit/loss
"Probability of Loss" is the probability that you will not get a set of 3 wins before exceeding the maximum bet
"75% Win Run" is the number of consecutive winning runs without a losing run where the probability of reaching that number is 75%
"50% Win Run" is like 75% Win Run, but the probability of reaching that number is 50%
For example, if the maximum bet per dozen is 336, then there is a 75% chance of having 71 wins in a row without having to exceed the table maximum, and a 50% chance of reaching 121 wins in a row.
"Why are these different from the ones you have before?"
Those assumed that all of the losing rounds were 2-loss rounds. These take into account the possibility of 3-loss rounds.
This assumes that the bet progression is 1, 2, 4, 8, 17, 36, 76, 160, 336, 706, 1483, 3114, 6539, and that you stop either after a set of 3 wins or when your bet would exceed the table betting limit
"Max Bet" is the highest allowed bet on a particular dozen
"Mean" and "SD" are the mean and standard deviation of the final overall profit/loss
"Probability of Loss" is the probability that you will not get a set of 3 wins before exceeding the maximum bet
"75% Win Run" is the number of consecutive winning runs without a losing run where the probability of reaching that number is 75%
"50% Win Run" is like 75% Win Run, but the probability of reaching that number is 50%
For example, if the maximum bet per dozen is 336, then there is a 75% chance of having 71 wins in a row without having to exceed the table maximum, and a 50% chance of reaching 121 wins in a row.
| Max Bet | Mean | SD | Probability of Loss | 75% Win Run | 50% Win Run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 336 | -4.3058 | 54.0408 | 1 / 175.4 | 71 | 121 |
| 706 | -5.3373 | 86.2823 | 1 / 308.4 | 125 | 213 |
| 1483 | -6.5696 | 136.7389 | 1 / 542.3 | 220 | 376 |
| 3114 | -8.0411 | 215.0372 | 1 / 953.6 | 386 | 661 |
| 6539 | -9.7984 | 335.4583 | 1 / 1676.8 | 680 | 1162 |
"Why are these different from the ones you have before?"
Those assumed that all of the losing rounds were 2-loss rounds. These take into account the possibility of 3-loss rounds.
May 22nd, 2025 at 3:51:47 PM
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In video poker, the odds of hitting four of a kind (quads) are roughly 1 in 423. This translates to about 0.2363%.
May 27th, 2025 at 8:39:38 PM
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Quote: AxelwolfSmall teams have made millions of dollars on biased wheels. How much have you made on "far better ways"?
Bias has been my bread and butter for a long time, even in LV. Vegas like many other locations has always treated it like a carnival game.
