Prediction Scam Examples

If an 'influencer' provably, correctly predicted 9 out of 10 Even money wagers, such as red/black on roulette, would you pay him for his next prediction?

Here's why that might be a dumb move, explained simply.



Beware this one has a bogus end, which devalues the explanation.

Quote: OnceDear

If an 'influencer' provably, correctly predicted 9 out of 10 Even money wagers, such as red/black on roulette, would you pay him for his next prediction?

Here's why that might be a dumb move, explained simply.

Beware this one has a bogus end, which devalues the explanation.

link to original post

Good grief this is an old OLD scam that's been around since race tracks in the 1920s.

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: OnceDear

If an 'influencer' provably, correctly predicted 9 out of 10 Even money wagers, such as red/black on roulette, would you pay him for his next prediction?

Here's why that might be a dumb move, explained simply.

link to original post

Good grief this is an old OLD scam that's been around since race tracks in the 1920s.
link to original post

indeed. But in the internet age, where getting a free mass sucker list is easy, it is still common. Not all our newer members are wise to it.

Quote: OnceDear

If an 'influencer' provably, correctly predicted 9 out of 10 Even money wagers, such as red/black on roulette, would you pay him for his next prediction?

Here's why that might be a dumb move, explained simply.
link to original post

You'd have to be Homer Simpson to fall for this...oh, wait, he did, back in 2005.

I guess if you are going to get involved in a prediction scheme, one that gives a full refund for all loses and pays you for TV time is not the worst one to join. But, I can see how this can be devastating to those who get suckered into paying big money to get a random prediction (and then probably lose even more when they bet unless they get lucky one last time.)

I have mixed feelings about Derren Brown, I used to like him a lot in High School, but rewatching a lot of his stuff when older and it often is very simple tricks presented in a way to make them more complicated (where a lot of the "mentalism" stuff is just total nonsense.) That being said, he is a good performer so I can see why he is popular.

I don't think that I could be at risk of prediction schemes. If anyone started emailing me predictions for sports I would just block and delete, and if somebody random started talking about such things in person at the casino I would immediately ignore. The only way this could work (on me) is if somebody that I trust and know started making predictions, in which case I would follow them out of amusement, and may even get intrigued, but I could not see myself giving them money (nor would any of my friends ask for money, so this is purely hypothetical.) Though it may help that I do not follow sports, so you can tell me that whatever happened in whatever game, and I would probably believe you (and not care enough to check.)

Quote: Gandler

I guess if you are going to get involved in a prediction scheme, one that gives a full refund for all loses and pays you for TV time is not the worst one to join. ...

I have mixed feelings about Derren Brown,...

I don't think that I could be at risk of prediction schemes. ...
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That Derren Brown item, like much of his stuff fails to explain properly and is tinged with showmanship. Pure theatre. For example where he took the six experts and performed his magic, he did not explain that at all. At the end of the clip, where he bet on the winner and handed that lady £13k, was just pure BS.
However, she was typical of the mark for such scams, never having bet on a horse and excited at every tiny win.

Don't underestimate how many suckers are out there. They visit and post in this forum from time to time.

Slightly off topic... A co-worker just came back from the Philippines and is raving about a great, no-lose Foreign Exchange scheme. He's already self invested a chunk of his pension savings and has nearly seduced a couple of colleagues into investing. There is no explaining to them the risks as they watch their 'paper profits'

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: Gandler

I guess if you are going to get involved in a prediction scheme, one that gives a full refund for all loses and pays you for TV time is not the worst one to join. ...

I have mixed feelings about Derren Brown,...

I don't think that I could be at risk of prediction schemes. ...
link to original post

That Derren Brown item, like much of his stuff fails to explain properly and is tinged with showmanship. Pure theatre. For example where he took the six experts and performed his magic, he did not explain that at all. At the end of the clip, where he bet on the winner and handed that lady £13k, was just pure BS.
However, she was typical of the mark for such scams, never having bet on a horse and excited at every tiny win.

Don't underestimate how many suckers are out there. They visit and post in this forum from time to time.

Slightly off topic... A co-worker just came back from the Philippines and is raving about a great, no-lose Foreign Exchange scheme. He's already self invested a chunk of his pension savings and has nearly seduced a couple of colleagues into investing. There is no explaining to them the risks as they watch their 'paper profits'
link to original post

I can almost guarantee that the expert trick was simple sleight of hand and peppered with math and psychology to make you think it was some brilliant prediction. And, he bought the tickets so it is possible that he bought tickets to all four (or five whatever it is) horses (and switching it would not be hard for him, it was a filmed environment so he could have even taken a pause and asked for the ticket to get ready to film and switch it.)

But, yeah for most of us that is probably the biggest risk, we are used to ignoring spam emails and crazy people on the streets. But, if a coworker who we trust and view as clever starts going on about a great investment, it is easier to see how we can be more tempted to listen to them. Though I am pretty sure foreign exchange schemes are another ancient scam, so if somebody started talking about this (even if I trusted them), I would instantly be skeptical.

Quote: Gandler

And, he bought the tickets so it is possible that he bought tickets to all four (or five whatever it is) horses (and switching it would not be hard for him, it was a filmed environment so he could have even taken a pause and asked for the ticket to get ready to film and switch it.)

But, yeah for most of us that is probably the biggest risk, we are used to ignoring spam emails and crazy people on the streets. But, if a coworker who we trust and view as clever starts going on about a great investment, it is easier to see how we can be more tempted to listen to them. Though I am pretty sure foreign exchange schemes are another ancient scam, so if somebody started talking about this (even if I trusted them), I would instantly be skeptical.
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If he bet £4,000 on all 6 horses and handed over the winnings, then a £24,000 production cost. He would have avoided that. It occurs that she hung onto the £4,000 worth of 'ticket' and never read the horse name on it?
So much about DB is bogus.

As to other schemes... There's still a generation of suckers that still think Marty is great.

OnceDear.

This was great thank you.

Here's the thing, this is happening daily, just in a different way. It's not even an intentional scam in many cases.

You can hop on to Reddit, Discord, Twitter, FB, IG, youtube, hundreds of forums, etc. They have thousands of guys making sports picks or some system on roulette, baccarat, picking stocks, or whatever.

Someone is assuredly going to run hot, some even for a long time, and really stand out.

When it comes to sports that's why I'm always asking what, why, how they believe they have an advantage.

Results don't really matter unless there's some math, statistics, or logic to back up those results.

There could be rare situations where you're able to gain an advantage, but you are not exactly sure how or why you have the advantage, you only have strong results and a plausible theory. You have no math or logic to back it up, and it can't be disproved with math or logic. The math and logic are there, but due to unknown factors, they can't be calculated. At that point, you can only rely on predictability, records, and results. It should be glaringly obvious something isn't right as it's way over the standard deviation or significantly predictable.

Situations like this come up when something is supposedly random, but in reality, they are somehow gaffed/biased/weighted/predetermined. I have run into such situations at online casinos.

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: Gandler

And, he bought the tickets so it is possible that he bought tickets to all four (or five whatever it is) horses (and switching it would not be hard for him, it was a filmed environment so he could have even taken a pause and asked for the ticket to get ready to film and switch it.)

But, yeah for most of us that is probably the biggest risk, we are used to ignoring spam emails and crazy people on the streets. But, if a coworker who we trust and view as clever starts going on about a great investment, it is easier to see how we can be more tempted to listen to them. Though I am pretty sure foreign exchange schemes are another ancient scam, so if somebody started talking about this (even if I trusted them), I would instantly be skeptical.
link to original post

If he bet £4,000 on all 6 horses and handed over the winnings, then a £24,000 production cost. He would have avoided that. It occurs that she hung onto the £4,000 worth of 'ticket' and never read the horse name on it?
So much about DB is bogus.

As to other schemes... There's still a generation of suckers that still think Marty is great.
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Maybe, but it is cheaper than filming six separate days (if she did not work and he had to go to the next winner down -who may have a larger amount of cash to reimburse- and so on.) I actually can see her believing him and just putting it in her pocket like he said (as somebody who does not know anything about horse racing, I would probably do the same.) Because it is odd that he insisted on buying this ticket.

Of course, this is giving him a massive benefit, and assuming she was the legit winner from random chance in an actual betting scheme (and not just totally staged /actors.) -For example, in some of his shows he makes multiple disclosures that there are no actors or stooges used for any of the tricks (I did not notice that in this show.)- So if he used an actor, that would of course be easier and cheaper (and he would not have to run a several month-long email scheme.)

Clearly if it was somewhat legit or a total staged production he wanted to ensure that the final round had the result he desired. (And, yes I know his final roulette trick lost and he claimed he was going to reimburse the participant -5k I think, it has been many years since I watched that one-)