GreenZero
GreenZero
Joined: Nov 16, 2021
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November 5th, 2022 at 11:08:40 AM permalink
So I thought I would make a video series on the Carsch system with these parameters betting Baccarat

Trigger: (PP) BBB-PPP-BB-PP
Trigger (BB)-PPP-BBB-PP-BB

10 Step Carsch Unit Progression (Standard Risk)
===============================
1,1,2,3,4,6,9,14,21,32 (10 step loss 93 units)


8 Step Aggressive Carsch Progression (Higher Risk Greater Reward)
=====================================
1,2,4,7,11,17,26,40,61,93 (10 step loss 262 units)

Except for the first bet, 2 losses in a row moves you 1 step to the right.
1 win keeps you at the current step.
2 wins in a row resets you back to the beginning of the progression.

I walk away when 5 units are gained or when I lose on the last step of the progression.

Notes*
I will try to keep the videos under 10 mins (No one wants to sit through a 20-30+ minute video of a simulation lol)
I'm a rookie when it comes to making videos so bear with me in the beginning as I try to sharpen my skills.
I'm basically simulating walking up to a baccarat table, playing a clean shoe and walking away my results will always differ from anyone else's that's a fact.

First video will be up today. Enjoy!
GreenZero
GreenZero
Joined: Nov 16, 2021
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Thanks for this post from:
Dieter
November 5th, 2022 at 11:09:58 AM permalink
Video 1

Last edited by: GreenZero on Nov 5, 2022
JackSpade
JackSpade
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November 5th, 2022 at 11:58:49 AM permalink
There is no reason to expect BBB-PPP-BB-PP or PPP-BBB-PP-BB to perform better over time than BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB....

Sometimes P is a better bet than B based on the values of cards that have been removed from the shoe, but fixed betting patterns are useless in capitalizing on these opportunities.
GreenZero
GreenZero
Joined: Nov 16, 2021
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November 5th, 2022 at 12:02:50 PM permalink
Quote: JackSpade

There is no reason to expect BBB-PPP-BB-PP or PPP-BBB-PP-BB to perform better over time than BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB....

Sometimes P is a better bet than B based on the values of cards that have been removed from the shoe, but fixed betting patterns are useless in capitalizing on these opportunities.
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You're probably right but this is just to see how this holds up and how many times I get struck by lightning. My curiosity gets the best of me I can't help it.
JackSpade
JackSpade
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November 5th, 2022 at 12:44:24 PM permalink
As for the progression itself, I don't like the requirement of 2 wins in a row before resetting. A single win immediately after a raise is a success insofar as it moves the average amount wagered on wins up. (The only measure by which a progression or any variable bet sizing strategy will outperform flat betting is if the average amount wagered on wins is higher than the average amount wagered on losses.) When you are forced to keep betting in order to get 2 in a row, you risk nullifying your successful raise and incurring subsequent losses at higher bet sizes.
GreenZero
GreenZero
Joined: Nov 16, 2021
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November 5th, 2022 at 12:57:35 PM permalink
Quote: JackSpade

As for the progression itself, I don't like the requirement of 2 wins in a row before resetting. A single win immediately after a raise is a success insofar as it moves the average amount wagered on wins up. (The only measure by which a progression or any variable bet sizing strategy will outperform flat betting is if the average amount wagered on wins is higher than the average amount wagered on losses.) When you are forced to keep betting in order to get 2 in a row, you risk nullifying your successful raise and incurring subsequent losses at higher bet sizes.
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True but if you don't get 2 wins in a row further down the progression, then you cant make up for the loss of the previous steps. You could get more aggressive with the steps themselves but then you're getting closer to a martingale which we all know will absolutely bury you.
Dieter
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Dieter
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
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November 5th, 2022 at 2:06:09 PM permalink
Quote: GreenZero

You could get more aggressive with the steps themselves but then you're getting closer to a martingale which we all know will absolutely bury you.
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I am reasonably sure there is a good chance of getting buried by any system that increases the bet after a loss.

Quote: Have a Lucky Day


I can't lose forever,
but I'm doomed to try.
link to one of my favorite gambling songs

May the cards fall in your favor.
JackSpade
JackSpade
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November 5th, 2022 at 2:06:12 PM permalink
If you're betting dozens in roulette where you have a 64% chance of winning each time, then it makes more sense to go for two in a row - though if the goal is to make up for multiple losses in a row, the progression would have to me more aggressive.

I think it's better to just accept that sometimes you will successfully complete a progression and still be down overall on it rather than try to recoup previous losses. Most of the time you will avoid adverse losing streaks and therefore show a profit after completing a progression. But sometimes you'll lose 11 in a row or 19 out of 20, and if the system you're playing causes you to lose your entire bankroll then it's worse than useless.
JackSpade
JackSpade
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November 5th, 2022 at 2:29:21 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter



I am reasonably sure there is a good chance of getting buried by any system that increases the bet after a loss.



Betting on banker with a starting bet of $25, increasing by $5 after any loss, would require a bet of $125 after 20 losses in a row. The odds of actually losing 20 banker bets in a row are 1,388,887:1. The typical baccarat player won't experience a losing streak that severe in a lifetime of playing the game. A few unlucky ones will, but that doesn't necessarily mean they will get "buried" by gradually raising from $25 to $125 if they are sufficiently bankrolled.
Dieter
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Dieter
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November 5th, 2022 at 2:33:30 PM permalink
Quote: JackSpade

Quote: Dieter



I am reasonably sure there is a good chance of getting buried by any system that increases the bet after a loss.



Betting on banker with a starting bet of $25, increasing by $5 after any loss, would require a bet of $125 after 20 losses in a row. The odds of actually losing 20 banker bets in a row are 1,388,887:1. The typical baccarat player won't experience a losing streak that severe in a lifetime of playing the game. A few unlucky ones will, but that doesn't necessarily mean they will get "buried" by gradually raising from $25 to $125 if they are sufficiently bankrolled.
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At which point, you're... $1500 down, vs $500 flat?
May the cards fall in your favor.

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