GreenZero
• Posts: 103
Joined: Nov 16, 2021
November 5th, 2022 at 11:08:40 AM permalink
So I thought I would make a video series on the Carsch system with these parameters betting Baccarat

Trigger: (PP) BBB-PPP-BB-PP
Trigger (BB)-PPP-BBB-PP-BB

10 Step Carsch Unit Progression (Standard Risk)
===============================
1,1,2,3,4,6,9,14,21,32 (10 step loss 93 units)

8 Step Aggressive Carsch Progression (Higher Risk Greater Reward)
=====================================
1,2,4,7,11,17,26,40,61,93 (10 step loss 262 units)

Except for the first bet, 2 losses in a row moves you 1 step to the right.
1 win keeps you at the current step.
2 wins in a row resets you back to the beginning of the progression.

I walk away when 5 units are gained or when I lose on the last step of the progression.

Notes*
I will try to keep the videos under 10 mins (No one wants to sit through a 20-30+ minute video of a simulation lol)
I'm a rookie when it comes to making videos so bear with me in the beginning as I try to sharpen my skills.
I'm basically simulating walking up to a baccarat table, playing a clean shoe and walking away my results will always differ from anyone else's that's a fact.

First video will be up today. Enjoy!
GreenZero
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Joined: Nov 16, 2021
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November 5th, 2022 at 11:09:58 AM permalink
Video 1

Last edited by: GreenZero on Nov 5, 2022
• Posts: 233
Joined: Aug 26, 2022
November 5th, 2022 at 11:58:49 AM permalink
There is no reason to expect BBB-PPP-BB-PP or PPP-BBB-PP-BB to perform better over time than BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB....

Sometimes P is a better bet than B based on the values of cards that have been removed from the shoe, but fixed betting patterns are useless in capitalizing on these opportunities.
GreenZero
• Posts: 103
Joined: Nov 16, 2021
November 5th, 2022 at 12:02:50 PM permalink

There is no reason to expect BBB-PPP-BB-PP or PPP-BBB-PP-BB to perform better over time than BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB....

Sometimes P is a better bet than B based on the values of cards that have been removed from the shoe, but fixed betting patterns are useless in capitalizing on these opportunities.

You're probably right but this is just to see how this holds up and how many times I get struck by lightning. My curiosity gets the best of me I can't help it.
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Joined: Aug 26, 2022
November 5th, 2022 at 12:44:24 PM permalink
As for the progression itself, I don't like the requirement of 2 wins in a row before resetting. A single win immediately after a raise is a success insofar as it moves the average amount wagered on wins up. (The only measure by which a progression or any variable bet sizing strategy will outperform flat betting is if the average amount wagered on wins is higher than the average amount wagered on losses.) When you are forced to keep betting in order to get 2 in a row, you risk nullifying your successful raise and incurring subsequent losses at higher bet sizes.
GreenZero
• Posts: 103
Joined: Nov 16, 2021
November 5th, 2022 at 12:57:35 PM permalink

As for the progression itself, I don't like the requirement of 2 wins in a row before resetting. A single win immediately after a raise is a success insofar as it moves the average amount wagered on wins up. (The only measure by which a progression or any variable bet sizing strategy will outperform flat betting is if the average amount wagered on wins is higher than the average amount wagered on losses.) When you are forced to keep betting in order to get 2 in a row, you risk nullifying your successful raise and incurring subsequent losses at higher bet sizes.

True but if you don't get 2 wins in a row further down the progression, then you cant make up for the loss of the previous steps. You could get more aggressive with the steps themselves but then you're getting closer to a martingale which we all know will absolutely bury you.
Dieter
• Posts: 5786
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
November 5th, 2022 at 2:06:09 PM permalink
Quote: GreenZero

You could get more aggressive with the steps themselves but then you're getting closer to a martingale which we all know will absolutely bury you.

I am reasonably sure there is a good chance of getting buried by any system that increases the bet after a loss.

Quote: Have a Lucky Day

I can't lose forever,
but I'm doomed to try.
link to one of my favorite gambling songs

May the cards fall in your favor.
• Posts: 233
Joined: Aug 26, 2022
November 5th, 2022 at 2:06:12 PM permalink
If you're betting dozens in roulette where you have a 64% chance of winning each time, then it makes more sense to go for two in a row - though if the goal is to make up for multiple losses in a row, the progression would have to me more aggressive.

I think it's better to just accept that sometimes you will successfully complete a progression and still be down overall on it rather than try to recoup previous losses. Most of the time you will avoid adverse losing streaks and therefore show a profit after completing a progression. But sometimes you'll lose 11 in a row or 19 out of 20, and if the system you're playing causes you to lose your entire bankroll then it's worse than useless.
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Joined: Aug 26, 2022
November 5th, 2022 at 2:29:21 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

I am reasonably sure there is a good chance of getting buried by any system that increases the bet after a loss.

Betting on banker with a starting bet of \$25, increasing by \$5 after any loss, would require a bet of \$125 after 20 losses in a row. The odds of actually losing 20 banker bets in a row are 1,388,887:1. The typical baccarat player won't experience a losing streak that severe in a lifetime of playing the game. A few unlucky ones will, but that doesn't necessarily mean they will get "buried" by gradually raising from \$25 to \$125 if they are sufficiently bankrolled.
Dieter
• Posts: 5786
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
November 5th, 2022 at 2:33:30 PM permalink

Quote: Dieter

I am reasonably sure there is a good chance of getting buried by any system that increases the bet after a loss.

Betting on banker with a starting bet of \$25, increasing by \$5 after any loss, would require a bet of \$125 after 20 losses in a row. The odds of actually losing 20 banker bets in a row are 1,388,887:1. The typical baccarat player won't experience a losing streak that severe in a lifetime of playing the game. A few unlucky ones will, but that doesn't necessarily mean they will get "buried" by gradually raising from \$25 to \$125 if they are sufficiently bankrolled.

At which point, you're... \$1500 down, vs \$500 flat?
May the cards fall in your favor.
gordonm888
• Posts: 5263
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
November 5th, 2022 at 2:37:30 PM permalink

If you're betting dozens in roulette where you have a 64% chance of winning each time, then it makes more sense to go for two in a row - though if the goal is to make up for multiple losses in a row, the progression would have to me more aggressive.

I think it's better to just accept that sometimes you will successfully complete a progression and still be down overall on it rather than try to recoup previous losses. Most of the time you will avoid adverse losing streaks and therefore show a profit after completing a progression. But sometimes you'll lose 11 in a row or 19 out of 20, and if the system you're playing causes you to lose your entire bankroll then it's worse than useless.

Yes, and my question is: how often do you complete all the steps in a progression and lose/lose on the last step of the progression? And then, given the rarity of the big loss (losing on the last possible step of a progression), how many simulation trials does it take to be in the long run?
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
GreenZero
• Posts: 103
Joined: Nov 16, 2021
November 5th, 2022 at 2:55:54 PM permalink
Well, ok maybe a controlled slow burial...lol
ChumpChange
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Joined: Jun 15, 2018
November 5th, 2022 at 3:03:57 PM permalink
The minimum bet for Baccarat near me is \$50 or \$100, depending on the table. So I should budget \$5K or \$10K for this system? I like the idea of only betting for one shoe, but how much am I supposed to win? 5 hands? The table max is only \$3K, so I can't do 32X bets on a \$100 table. I'm sure other players can vouch for much higher table maxes where they live, like \$15K or \$25K or higher. Get on a \$500 minimum table and take it up to \$16K bets as a top bet. Win \$2500 per shoe per day, but not every day.

Edit: If my bankroll should be 10X my session buy-in, I'll need a \$50K or \$100K bankroll for the \$50 table or \$100 table respectively.
The aggressive system needs about 3X that even, so \$150K or \$300K bankroll for the \$50 or \$100 table respectively, and a higher table max.

If I'm only winning 5 bets a day and I lose near 100 bets, I've just lost 20 days of bets.
If on the aggressive system, I lose 300 bets, I'm down 60 days of bets.
I'm not sold on this system because I've had so much terrible luck on these kinds of systems. I'll continue with my own systems.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Nov 5, 2022
GreenZero
• Posts: 103
Joined: Nov 16, 2021
November 5th, 2022 at 3:11:03 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

The minimum bet for Baccarat near me is \$50 or \$100, depending on the table. So I should budget \$5K or \$10K for this system? I like the idea of only betting for one shoe, but how much am I supposed to win? 5 hands? The table max is only \$3K, so I can't do 32X bets on a \$100 table. I'm sure other players can vouch for much higher table maxes where they live, like \$15K or \$25K or higher. Get on a \$500 minimum table and take it up to \$16K bets as a top bet. Win \$2500 per shoe per day, but not every day.

\$50 would be 50,50,150,200,300,450,700,1100,1600 losing all steps should be no more than a 10% hit against your bankroll
OnceDear
• Posts: 7496
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
November 5th, 2022 at 3:11:18 PM permalink
With all of these big bankroll progressive systems, the question has to be "What meaningful percentage can I increase my bankroll by with only an acceptable risk of losing my bankroll"
If I bring \$100,000 to the table with the objective of making \$1,000 then I might do that day in, day out, until,,,, Damn. Lost the lot.
I could be safer with a bankroll of \$100,000,000 but then would those \$1,000 wins be at all significant to me?

And this is why I came up with "OnceDear's rule of thumb"
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/7/#post1370

Want to increase your bankroll by 1%.... roughly 99% probability of success
Want to increase your bankroll by 10%.... roughly 90% probability of success
Want to increase your bankroll by 100%.... roughly 50% probability of success

Works with any System , Progressive, Method, or Approach.
All you need is a low house edge game, and more money than sense.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
GreenZero
• Posts: 103
Joined: Nov 16, 2021
November 5th, 2022 at 3:15:02 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

With all of these big bankroll progressive systems, the question has to be "What meaningful percentage can I increase my bankroll by with only an acceptable risk of losing my bankroll"
If I bring \$100,000 to the table with the objective of making \$1,000 then I might do that day in, day out, until,,,, Damn. Lost the lot.
I could be safer with a bankroll of \$100,000,000 but then would those \$1,000 wins be at all significant to me?

And this is why I came up with "OnceDear's rule of thumb"
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/7/#post1370

Want to increase your bankroll by 1%.... roughly 99% probability of success
Want to increase your bankroll by 10%.... roughly 90% probability of success
Want to increase your bankroll by 100%.... roughly 50% probability of success

Works with any System , Progressive, Method, or Approach.
All you need is a low house edge game, and more money than sense.

LOL more money than sense. I like that!
• Posts: 233
Joined: Aug 26, 2022
November 5th, 2022 at 3:23:33 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

If you're betting dozens in roulette where you have a 64% chance of winning each time, then it makes more sense to go for two in a row - though if the goal is to make up for multiple losses in a row, the progression would have to me more aggressive.

I think it's better to just accept that sometimes you will successfully complete a progression and still be down overall on it rather than try to recoup previous losses. Most of the time you will avoid adverse losing streaks and therefore show a profit after completing a progression. But sometimes you'll lose 11 in a row or 19 out of 20, and if the system you're playing causes you to lose your entire bankroll then it's worse than useless.

Yes, and my question is: how often do you complete all the steps in a progression and lose/lose on the last step of the progression? And then, given the rarity of the big loss (losing on the last possible step of a progression), how many simulation trials does it take to be in the long run?

My answer is you should never start a progression that puts you at significant risk of losing on on the last step. By that I mean roughly, if your risk of going bust is less than your risk of dying in a car crash on the way to the casino or to work, then it's insignificant.

Nobody thinks that having a job is unduly risky because it could cause them to lose everything in a car crash. Of course, a job is +EV while gambling usually isn't. But here we're assuming that you have decided for whatever reason to allocate funds to placing bets and considering whether a progression subjects you to any additional undue risk of loss.

Given that, what's the best bet sizing strategy? I say, a progression that reliably results in the largest bet of every session you play being a win. If you think there is significant risk of your largest bet being a loss under any progressive betting system given your bankroll or table limits, then you might as well just flat bet.
GreenZero
• Posts: 103
Joined: Nov 16, 2021
November 5th, 2022 at 3:30:43 PM permalink
So going forward, I'm going to post a video on here once a week. I will have the other 6 videos of that week on my channel in case you want to see them.

I will be posting videos on Saturdays.
unJon

• Posts: 4692
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
November 5th, 2022 at 9:50:34 PM permalink
Quote: GreenZero

So going forward, I'm going to post a video on here once a week. I will have the other 6 videos of that week on my channel in case you want to see them.

I will be posting videos on Saturdays.

Well scammed, sir. Well scammed.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
GreenZero
• Posts: 103
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November 5th, 2022 at 9:55:57 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: GreenZero

So going forward, I'm going to post a video on here once a week. I will have the other 6 videos of that week on my channel in case you want to see them.

I will be posting videos on Saturdays.

Well scammed, sir. Well scammed.

Explain...
andonlyigotdake
• Posts: 5
Joined: Nov 6, 2022
November 6th, 2022 at 9:25:15 AM permalink
Do not mind Unjon, proceed on with your findings, i tested the wizards site as well baccarat using a aggressive betting structure only upping my bet as i won and any loss registered would revert back to the base bet, my findings was testing 10 shoes x 81 rounds so 810 total hands no waiting just following the last winner.
loss was 387\$ win was 907, did decent in, also did the same test on eclipse casino baccarat however i think they shuffle after each turn, none the loss i did the same betting system and biggest loss -780 and ended on a positive note of 520\$ profit this was 10\$ min bet wizard was 5\$ min bet. it was also a 3hr process.

also note had i allocated a 50 unit bank roll to 5\$ and 50 unit bankroll to 10\$ the moment had i lost on either site the system would have funnel me to move to the next denom and would have recouped faster however win rate would be the same since my goal was the same on that particular day so it wouldnt really mattered,
the original test was 100 unit roll and goal was to win 100 units but gave up at 50 unit win mark again using aggressive betting bankroll method would have made the process faster.

im glad you know any sequence of bb or pp can be spewed out of a random shoe, stick with what you like.
just like i know follow the loser can occur just as much as follow the winner just our brains are more attuned to colorful streaks than chopy action.

on another note i did test roulette betting the 2 dozens using the oscars grind or holye's press 1 and 2 dozen and that thing did the worst, the 66% strike rate had no meaning due to the fact zero and double zero and the last dozen i had not covered would continue to show up, the bankroll was struggling right off the bat and only saw 1 positive peak and it was very short lived, do not reccomend roulette, baccarat is confined to 2 decisions much easier on the bankroll.
Mental
• Posts: 1504
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
November 6th, 2022 at 10:03:23 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Well scammed, sir. Well scammed.

Neither snow nor rain nor heat nor gloom of night stays these purveyors of betting system nonsense from their analysis of pointless progressions.
Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
andonlyigotdake
• Posts: 5
Joined: Nov 6, 2022
November 6th, 2022 at 10:12:04 AM permalink
then flat bet your heart out and only win 6 unit peaks, and never enjoy gamibling with the casinos money or why not follow bob dancers method of video poker? could always count the cards at blackjack more than likely have crappy rules and 10min bet with a 10kroll will yield less than min wage yucky yuck yuck not in the mood to hassle with the pit boss with min wage down town atlantic city? then why are u here mental?
Mental
• Posts: 1504
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
November 6th, 2022 at 10:24:00 AM permalink
Quote: andonlyigotdake

then flat bet your heart out and only win 6 unit peaks, and never enjoy gamibling with the casinos money or why not follow bob dancers method of video poker?link to original post

Well, the best way to gamble with the casinos money is to win consistently. I have been gambling entirely with the casino's money for 25 years. While you are wasting your time with progressions, I am making money doing things that work.
Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
andonlyigotdake
• Posts: 5
Joined: Nov 6, 2022
November 6th, 2022 at 10:26:16 AM permalink
did i say im going down casino and using progresions? how do you know im not following bob dancers method? i did mention card counting how do u know im not counting them cards in vegas under good rules? you always assume the worst until you realize u dont knoq squat.

i won a thosuand bucks following bob dancers method and his play made me a winner since 2017 that shows what u know ya mental retard
GreenZero
• Posts: 103
Joined: Nov 16, 2021
November 6th, 2022 at 10:32:49 AM permalink
Quote: andonlyigotdake

Do not mind Unjon, proceed on with your findings, i tested the wizards site as well baccarat using a aggressive betting structure only upping my bet as i won and any loss registered would revert back to the base bet, my findings was testing 10 shoes x 81 rounds so 810 total hands no waiting just following the last winner.
loss was 387\$ win was 907, did decent in, also did the same test on eclipse casino baccarat however i think they shuffle after each turn, none the loss i did the same betting system and biggest loss -780 and ended on a positive note of 520\$ profit this was 10\$ min bet wizard was 5\$ min bet. it was also a 3hr process.

also note had i allocated a 50 unit bank roll to 5\$ and 50 unit bankroll to 10\$ the moment had i lost on either site the system would have funnel me to move to the next denom and would have recouped faster however win rate would be the same since my goal was the same on that particular day so it wouldnt really mattered,
the original test was 100 unit roll and goal was to win 100 units but gave up at 50 unit win mark again using aggressive betting bankroll method would have made the process faster.

im glad you know any sequence of bb or pp can be spewed out of a random shoe, stick with what you like.
just like i know follow the loser can occur just as much as follow the winner just our brains are more attuned to colorful streaks than chopy action.

on another note i did test roulette betting the 2 dozens using the oscars grind or holye's press 1 and 2 dozen and that thing did the worst, the 66% strike rate had no meaning due to the fact zero and double zero and the last dozen i had not covered would continue to show up, the bankroll was struggling right off the bat and only saw 1 positive peak and it was very short lived, do not reccomend roulette, baccarat is confined to 2 decisions much easier on the bankroll.

Wow very nice. Yeah I won't test the roulette as the house edge is way to high. Thank you for the info!
• Posts: 233
Joined: Aug 26, 2022
November 6th, 2022 at 10:34:56 AM permalink
Does Bob Dancer have a method other than optimal play on video poker?
andonlyigotdake