Roberto21
Roberto21
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February 4th, 2022 at 8:03:45 AM permalink
If you’re goal is to win money (make a net profit) at gambling. In a game with a house edge, would you theoretically be better off placing a single bet of 500 units, or 500 bets of a single unit? Or would it make no difference over the long term?
ThatDonGuy
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Roberto21
February 4th, 2022 at 8:07:31 AM permalink
Quote: Roberto21

If you’re goal is to win money (make a net profit) at gambling. In a game with a house edge, would you theoretically be better off placing a single bet of 500 units, or 500 bets of a single unit? Or would it make no difference over the long term?


Single bet of 500.

The smaller the bets, the more bets you are expected to make, and the more you expose to the house edge as a result.
Roberto21
Roberto21
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February 4th, 2022 at 8:20:45 AM permalink
And would it be the reverse logic if you had the edge? I.e. Bet smaller units and reduce variance?

If I play a MHB machine with an edge I know whether I bet minimum or maximum, the expected cost will be the same, but are you saying the optimal strategy would be to reduce your bet size as much as possible to see your edge materialise, so to speak, if one has a limited bankroll?
billryan
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Roberto21
February 4th, 2022 at 8:22:02 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: Roberto21

If you’re goal is to win money (make a net profit) at gambling. In a game with a house edge, would you theoretically be better off placing a single bet of 500 units, or 500 bets of a single unit? Or would it make no difference over the long term?


Single bet of 500.

The smaller the bets, the more bets you are expected to make, and the more you expose to the house edge as a result.
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That is true, but there are other factors to be considered. One way to win in casinos or to reduce the house edge is thru the casino's own marketing department. For those offers, more frequent smaller bets may work better than a single bet.
With a $500 bet, you win it or you lose it but you end up giving the casino $500 in action( which is what they use to determine comps for the most part.)
If you make 500 $1 bets, you will most likely win about half of them so if you keep playing until you lose your $500 stake, you'll give the casino much more than $500 in action and you will get better comps.
I would say if you have $500 and never intend to play in the casino again, make a single $500 bet. If you intend to play on a regular basis, 500 $1 bets works better,
Some folks are lucky and overcome the math to win constantly. I'm not, so I need to resort to things like marketing offers to gain an advantage.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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February 4th, 2022 at 8:33:15 AM permalink
I'd break it up into 20 x 25 bet buy-ins, and try to double or nothing my money on each session.
A unit could be $25 so if you have 500 of those, you walked in with $12.5K. Take it easy and bet $25 a hand.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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February 4th, 2022 at 8:34:13 AM permalink
Quote: Roberto21

And would it be the reverse logic if you had the edge? I.e. Bet smaller units and reduce variance?


Yes, in theory. Of course, you have to take into account that it will take time to reach a final result.

However, my original answer was under the assumption that you would play until either you won $500 or lost your original $500. If your target is less than $500, your original bet should be your target; if you win, walk away, and if you lose, double the bet (yes, that is Martingaling, but it is justified in this case as you know you have a limit and have a chance to lose the entire bankroll). In other words, each bet should be the smaller of what you have left in your bankroll and the minimum needed to reach the target.

Quote: Roberto21

If I play a MHB machine with an edge I know whether I bet minimum or maximum, the expected cost will be the same, but are you saying the optimal strategy would be to reduce your bet size as much as possible to see your edge materialise, so to speak, if one has a limited bankroll?


This is a different problem. It depends on a number of things, like what is the probability of winning for different values of the progressive.
Roberto21
Roberto21
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February 4th, 2022 at 8:35:50 AM permalink
Would the house edge of the game play a factor in how you decide to break up your bankroll?
Roberto21
Roberto21
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February 4th, 2022 at 8:45:41 AM permalink
I set no specific target, I was just wondering in general if I would be more likely to be in the positive after a single
bet of $500 than 500 bets of $1 in a negative expectation game. As casino games can vary significantly in house edge, assume the example is for a slot machine with the same RTP for both scenarios (e.g. 1 $500 spin vs 500 $1 spins). Would I be more likely to walk out ahead after 1 spin of $500 or 500 spins of $1, over an infinite number of trials? I assume it would be equal probability over the long term? But in the short term I would be more likely to win with the single $500 bet, is that correct?
billryan
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Roberto21
February 4th, 2022 at 8:48:07 AM permalink
Quote: Roberto21

Would the house edge of the game play a factor in how you decide to break up your bankroll?
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I understand you are new and want to learn, but you need to learn to ask better, more specific questions.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
ChumpChange
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Roberto21
February 4th, 2022 at 8:51:04 AM permalink
It's more about the variance. If I play 625 hands of BJ, take the square root of that to get 25 (I know the math guys have an updated formula, but I'm stuck in the 1990's), so for 1 SD I'd expect to win or lose 25 bets. The HA would be 3 bets at 0.5%, so I'd be looking at (-28, +22). With 2 SD, it'd be +/-50 bets, so (-53, +47). At 3 SD, it'd be +/- 75 bets, so (-78, +72). The HA offsets what you can expect to win or lose. The higher the HA percentage, the worse the offset and the harder it is to stay above even. With the variance involved, I'd have to bring extra buy-ins if I'm on the losing end of it.

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