OnceDear
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OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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January 25th, 2022 at 1:32:52 AM permalink
Quote: Kj4646

Because I know there are ways to beat house in baccarat, Iím just not 100% sure about this particular strategy. I donít want a whole bunch of trolls and losers spamming me and telling me that itís impossible to beat house in baccarat. I simply want an answer to my questions backed by a simulation
link to original post


Trolls and losers: Well, maybe you pre-insulted me and whoever posts next.

Be 100% sure that that strategy is bunk. CharliePatrick has humoured you with a real simulation. Now, go off in search of another ten million hands of REAL BACCARAT. It might take you a while to analyse them. Maybe you can pay someone on fiverr.com to test it for you.
Better yet, borrow as much cash as you can. Mortgage what you can, take the money to your casino of choice and camp out on their baccarat table and wager to your strategy till you prove it to yourself. No need to report back here.

As SooPoo advised. You MUST follow kelly criteria or your winning strategy will still see you go bust.
Good luck.

Next time someone comes into class to show off the Holy Grail, I swear to god, I'm going to beat him over the head and steal it. That'll teach him not to sip from it discreetly as he lives forever.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
Dieter
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Dieter
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January 25th, 2022 at 4:53:21 AM permalink
Quote: Kj4646

I donít care what you think about the fact that itís always 50/50 and strategies donít work. For the most part i agree, but there are mathematical ways to best baccarat and I donít care if you think otherwise.
link to original post



(emphasis added -D)

I am at least curious why you are focusing on prior hand results as indicators.
May the cards fall in your favor.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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January 25th, 2022 at 5:39:25 AM permalink
________________


I believe this is a way to beat baccarat - until somebody shows me that I'm wrong - but I don't think that will happen

it has obvious limitations which I won't go into - but still

highly skilled blackjack players can watch the shuffle carefully and then cut themselves an Ace dealt out on the first round - a skill known as Ace cutting

there's no reason that a person who can do that couldn't cut the Player a 9 or an 8 at the bacc table

cannot be done with an automatic shuffler

I'll leave it to the mathletes to state what edge a bettor has betting on Player if he knows the Player will get a 9 for his first card

I'm not sure about that - but I believe it's a large edge comparaed to edge a player can normally get counting at blackjack

so, obviously the strategy would be to make the tiniest bets possible only on Banker until you cut the Player a 9 or an 8 - and then get down huge


.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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January 25th, 2022 at 5:42:06 AM permalink
You've got to be ready win or lose 75 hands.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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January 25th, 2022 at 5:50:36 AM permalink
keep going, we've gone from marginal 52% to roll-in-the-dough 55% now. And we know the secret! Casinos here I come!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Dieter
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Dieter
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January 25th, 2022 at 6:01:42 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster




I believe this is a way to beat baccarat - until somebody shows me that I'm wrong - but I don't think that will happen

it has obvious limitations which I won't go into - but still

highly skilled blackjack players can watch the shuffle carefully and then cut themselves an Ace dealt out on the first round - a skill known as Ace cutting

there's no reason that a person who can do that couldn't cut the Player a 9 or an 8 at the bacc table

link to original post



The skills of precision cutting may apply.

Are you familiar with the "baccarat burn"?

I'd have to go do some research, but my fallible memory says first card 8/9 information is worth around 6%.
May the cards fall in your favor.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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January 25th, 2022 at 6:09:11 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter




Are you familiar with the "baccarat burn"?




no, I had never heard of that until you mentioned it and I looked it up
it looks like that would invalidate precision cutting

I goofed off on mini bacc years ago and I don't remember them doing a baccarat burn - I'm just about 100% sure they did not

but things may have changed - I don't really know


.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
LuckyPhow
LuckyPhow
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January 25th, 2022 at 7:18:05 AM permalink
Quote: Kj4646

Hey guys, on baccarat over 100,000 shoe simulations 55% of the time after 5 players in a row the 6th will be player, and about 55.5% of the time after 5 bankers 6th will be banker. Can anyone simulate 1 million shoes to see if these results are correct? I donít care what you think about the fact that itís always 50/50 and strategies donít work. For the most part i agree, but there are mathematical ways to best baccarat and I donít care if you think otherwise.
link to original post



Kj, I'm willing to set aside the math. You say you mostly agree. 'Nuff said, IMHO. (Did we ever deduct 5% of Banker's wins?)

Now, about the "simulation." I like to use the Wizard's data when I ponder such curious questions. Furthermore, I think there's a reasonably easy way to check using the 10 carefully crafted Baccarat data files he created, each of which has 25,000 8-deck shoes and is specifically tailored to be a statistically random simulation. We have good data. (Apologies. I'm multi-tasking, so you have to find the files at WoO, OK?) One assumption I'm making: B-B-B-T-B-B and B-T-T-B-B-B each count as 5 Bs in a row, so ties don't matter.

Download each of the 10 data files, and save each as a plain, ASCII text file. Instead, if you choose to use your word processor, use a mono-space font so columns align. Open a file and look at the data. It has digits and commas, plus the following letters: B, P, and T. (Are you with me so far?) Continue as follows to get the data you seek:

  1. Delete every instance each character EXCEPT B's and P's
  2. Search for a string of 5 Bs in succession
  3. Check and record the next result.


We once thought the earth was flat and the center of everything. If you really are onto something, the data -- somehow or other -- eventually will demonstrate the fact. Good luck.
[Minor typo edit]
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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January 25th, 2022 at 7:21:56 AM permalink
Quote: Kj4646

Hey guys, on baccarat over 100,000 shoe simulations 55% of the time after 5 players in a row the 6th will be player, and about 55.5% of the time after 5 bankers 6th will be banker. Can anyone simulate 1 million shoes to see if these results are correct?


I'll do better - after 100 million shoes, I get a player win after 5 straight player wins (ignoring ties) happening 49.314% of the time, and a bank win after 5 straight bank wins (again, ignoring ties) happening 50.677% of the time.
Dieter
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Dieter
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January 25th, 2022 at 8:45:22 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: Dieter




Are you familiar with the "baccarat burn"?




no, I had never heard of that until you mentioned it and I looked it up
it looks like that would invalidate precision cutting

I goofed off on mini bacc years ago and I don't remember them doing a baccarat burn - I'm just about 100% sure they did not

but things may have changed - I don't really know


.
link to original post



I think if fortune smiles on you and you track a slug of about 24 9's and you can cut to the start of it, you could do OK.

I think there may be a smaller number of hydrogen atoms between here and the sun than the denominator in that probability, but anything can happen in a casino.
May the cards fall in your favor.

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