Baccarat stately beat edge

Hey guys, I have a strategy where I know that when a certain sequence happens there is a 52% chance of the next hand being a banker and a 48% chance of there being a player (not including ties obviously). This is based on 100,000 shoes simulation. My questions is would I be beating house edge, or would the casino still have an edge over me because of 5% commission?

You would not be beating the house edge because the 5% vig takes care of that and rips you off 1% on every Banker bet. After 100 bets of $100, you may have lost $100 to the HA. So it's best to win big before too many hands go by.

Could you explain the math for that?

I'm not the math guy for this. But if you're winning 4% before the vig and the vig takes 5%, you're down 1%.

Omgosh you have a system?!?! tell me the system im about to lose me house!!
can you pm me the system plz

Quote: Kj4646

Hey guys, I have a strategy where I know that when a certain sequence happens there is a 52% chance of the next hand being a banker and a 48% chance of there being a player (not including ties obviously).
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52/48 sounds oddly close to the natural banker/player win chances, plus a margin of error appropriate for 100,000 trials. I'm not convinced your observed sequence of prior results makes a lick of difference.

Best of luck in your endeavours.

Quote: Kj4646

Could you explain the math for that?
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Here's the math:

the expected value of a bet is the chances of winning times the amount bet minus the chances of losing times the amount bet. Always edit: it occurs to me that this is an exception, sorry.

you will have to go with chances of winning times the bet, then get the modified amount after the 5% commission

then subtract the chances of losing times the bet

for one unit, if 52% holds up, then you get 0.52 minus 5% for wins, 0.494
minus 48% times one unit, 0.48 ... looks like 52% would be player advantage long run. My math could be wrong, check out the link for the right way to do it.

the Wizard shows the probabilities as 0.458597 for wins, 0.446247 for losses, 0.095156 for ties. see link.

the general response to the idea that a certain sequence will predict non-random results is "nonsense". Many a wizard has tried to follow the change in card composition, though, as in BJ card counting, but found it too marginal to bother with.

This ends my contribution I think

https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/basics/

Quote: ChumpChange

I'm not the math guy for this. But if you're winning 4% before the vig and the vig takes 5%, you're down 1%.
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But gives an incorrect answer anyway.

“Here's the math:

the expected value of a bet is the chances of winning times the amount bet minus the chances of losing times the amount bet. Always edit: it occurs to me that this is an exception, sorry.

you will have to go with chances of winning times the bet, then get the modified amount after the 5% commission

then subtract the chances of losing times the bet

for one unit, if 52% holds up, then you get 0.52 minus 5% for wins, 0.494
minus 48% times one unit, 0.48 ... looks like 52% would be player advantage long run. My math could be wrong, check out the link for the right way to do it.

the Wizard shows the probabilities as 0.458597 for wins, 0.446247 for losses, 0.095156 for ties. see link.

the general response to the idea that a certain sequence will predict non-random results is "nonsense". Many a wizard has tried to follow the change in card composition, though, as in BJ card counting, but found it too marginal to bother with.
This ends my contribution I think“

I’m even more confused now. Half are saying it will beat edge and half are saying it won’t. Im not sure what to do now?

“But gives an incorrect answer anyway.”


What’s the correct answer in your opinion?

“52/48 sounds oddly close to the natural banker/player win chances, plus a margin of error appropriate for 100,000 trials. I'm not convinced your observed sequence of prior results makes a lick of difference.
Best of luck in your endeavours.”

I think it’s usually about 49/51, So it would be a pretty decent advantage considering blackjack card counters only have a 1% advantage and they spend months learning. Not to mention the fact that you can’t card count online and no one really gets banned from playing baccarat too well.

Quote: Kj4646

What’s the correct answer in your opinion?
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You should expect to lose a little over $1 for every $100 you bet on banker or player.

Quote: Dieter

Quote: Kj4646

What’s the correct answer in your opinion?
link to original post

You should expect to lose a little over $1 for every $100 you bet on banker or player.
link to original post

In general or using my strategy? And what’s your logic behind that?

Quote: Kj4646

Quote: Dieter

Quote: Kj4646

What’s the correct answer in your opinion?
link to original post

You should expect to lose a little over $1 for every $100 you bet on banker or player.
link to original post

In general or using my strategy? And what’s your logic behind that?
link to original post

Yes.

I do not see your strategy as having significantly different results from random.

Best of luck in your endeavours.

Quote: Dieter

Quote: Kj4646

Quote: Dieter

Quote: Kj4646

What’s the correct answer in your opinion?
link to original post

You should expect to lose a little over $1 for every $100 you bet on banker or player.
link to original post

In general or using my strategy? And what’s your logic behind that?
link to original post

Yes.

I do not see your strategy as having significantly different results from random.

Best of luck in your endeavours.
link to original post

Well bias aside, let’s just say it is 52/48? I also have a few other strategies which have higher winning results, the highest being 45/55. This 48/52 is the lowest winning strategy I have, so I’m just trying to get an idea of at what level the house edge is beaten to calculate the risks and where my EV should be.

Quote: Kj4646

Hey guys, I have a strategy where I know that when a certain sequence happens there is a 52% chance of the next hand being a banker and a 48% chance of there being a player (not including ties obviously). This is based on 100,000 shoes simulation. My questions is would I be beating house edge, or would the casino still have an edge over me because of 5% commission?
link to original post

So......

Of course, your system would not involve betting player, becauase EV= 0.48 *2 +0 = 96%

52% of your wagers on banker return 1.95 x your stake and 48% of your wagers return 0
total return to player =0.52 x 1.95 + 0.48 x 0 = 1.014
Thus if your assertion is true, you have a 1.4% advantage.

But your assertion is NOT true. You do not have any advantage. Your 100,000 sample is not in the least bit representative, or has been wrongly analysed.

You MIGHT get more explanation when you tell us how many wagers you expect to make over those 100,000



You need to read up on the practice of painting the bullseye where tthe arrows land

Quote: Kj4646

Well bias aside, let’s just say it is 52/48? I also have a few other strategies which have higher winning results, the highest being 45/55. This 48/52 is the lowest winning strategy I have, so I’m just trying to get an idea of at what level the house edge is beaten to calculate the risks and where my EV should be.
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The math has been explained previously.

The summary:
(P_win * .95) - (P_lose * 1) must be greater than 0 for you to have "an edge".

Personally, I don't care to wager $100 100 times to possibly get about $140 in winnings.

Quote: Kj4646

“But gives an incorrect answer anyway.”


What’s the correct answer in your opinion?
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There is a great site out there that you and the Chumpster should use! Wizard of Odds!

Quote: Kj4646

Hey guys, I have a strategy where I know that when a certain sequence happens there is a 52% chance of the next hand being a banker and a 48% chance of there being a player (not including ties obviously). This is based on 100,000 shoes simulation. My questions is would I be beating house edge, or would the casino still have an edge over me because of 5% commission?
link to original post

Well what happens if it IS a tie after your magical 'certain sequence'? Do you still bet banker or do you not bet at all?

But to answer your hypothetical question, if you are able to bet on banker when banker happens 52%, player 48%, and tie 0%, you do have an edge as a few have mentioned.

Win 52 times..... $95 x 52 = $4940
Lose 48 times $100 x 48 = $4800

Profit per 100 bets at $100 per bet = $140. Player edge 1.4%

But YOU DO NOT KNOW that after a 'certain sequence' banker wins 52% of the time. You may think you do, but YOU DON"T!

Quote: Kj4646

...when a certain sequence happens...based on 100,000 shoes simulation....

Suppose, as a hypothetical example, you found that if you wagered "Banker" on the 37th hand of each shoe you would have come out ahead, most people would suggest either there haven't been enough shoes to prove this or selective analysis. In fact some might even wonder whether the RNG being used might be causing simulations to cycle or somehow not be sufficiently random.

There are ways to beat Baccarat but it takes a lot of card counting and very little profit can be gained - it is based on the ratio of cards being left when you're fairly near the end of a shoe being so distorted so as to make one of Player/Banker significantly more likely than normal. Thus, for instance, if you say after a long string of cards such as 666 666 etc., I can imagine this might affect results. This is similar logic to Blackjack.