When a new shooter picks up the dice I place 4 units (the amount is irrelevant, but for this example I will use $25 per unit) in my hand. That is the total amount ($100) I will risk on any one shooter.
My betting pattern is as follows:
Bet one unit on the don’t pass
If the 7 or 11 come out I will then place one unit again on the don’t pass, however if the 2 or 3 come out I will place the unit won back in my rack Not in my hand
If the first roll establishes a “number” I will then bet a 2nd unit on the don’t come. Again with this 2nd bet if the roll is a 2 or 3 I will place the unit won in my rack Not my hand and leave both bets up. If it’s an 11 I will place another unit on don’t come. If it’s a 7 the shooters roll is over and I will have broken even and start again with 4 units in my hand for the next shooter.
If however the 2nd roll is another number, but not the first number, I will again place another don’t come bet. However, If I t’s the original pass number, at that point I will have lost a unit, again have a unit against that number from my don’t come bet and will place a unit on the don’t pass.
I do this until I am against three numbers or have no more units to play in my hand. If this happens without any decision being made, I will then still have one of my original units in my hand.
If for example the first three rolls come out 4,5,6, I will at that point be against those numbers. If one of these is hit before a crap out I will then make a new don’t pass or don’t come as appropriate with the one unit left in my hand.
In short I never risk more than four units total against any one shooter, never place any “craps” roll winnings in my hand or takedown any bets, nor do I lay behind. If however I win a bet(s) because a shooter has hit the pass number and I still have one or two don’t come bets on the board (regardless of whether or not I also have a unit placed on a new don’t pass bet) and a seven comes next (for the shooter it will be a come out roll) I will place those 2 or 4 units in my hand and continue to bet against the shooter as described above.
My question is what is the house edge against me playing this way. I will appreciate all relevant replies or if you have a question please ask.
BTW I have played this way for over 45 years and have won some and lost some and have been well comped throughput this time.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Craps
Quote: ijk01Thanks for replying. However, this does not provide me with information I am seeking as it only shows the house edge for each individual bet made, not the edge on the series of bets. Remember that if I have three bets on the table against three numbers and the shooter craps out, I collect on all three. However if I have three bets on the table against three numbers and the shooter hits one I am still alive against the other two and depending when in the sequence this occurs I may then have an additional wager still in my hand to bet the don’t pas/come on the next roll. What I am seeking is the overall house edge given the betting pattern I described.
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If I am reading your strategy right, all you are doing is making don't pass and don't come bets. The house edge is 1.36%.
Quote: ijk01What I am seeking is the overall house edge given the betting pattern I described.
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Welcome to the forum.
Betting patterns - or systems - do not alter the house edge.
The dice do not care if the chips were just warmed up by your hand, or if they've been sitting in the rail.
I'm glad you found a style of play you enjoy.
I hope it has generally done ok for you.
The bus ride home from AC went by in a flash as I dreamed about what to do with my new wealth, and how I had the power to change people's lives just by sharing my secret with them.
I had a customer who was allegedly a genius. He had worked for Bell Labs and supposedly created something that saved billions and had gotten a seven-figure bonus for it that let him retire early. He now worked tutoring rich kids. I figured he would be the perfect person to show my strategy to for verification.
He listened, smiled, and ripped the idea to pieces. I didn't understand his first explanation, nor his second but finally, he used fourth-grade math to show the formula was horribly flawed and he then proceeded to write out a huge formula that showed I was actually playing at a disadvantage identical to what every book said was the overall house edge. I was crushed but not entirely convinced he was right.
The strange thing was the formula worked as long as I believed it was correct, but after consulting this man, it didn't work anymore. My next three sessions were all losers and the only reason I didn't give back all my winnings was I cut the last session short.
To this day I'm baffled by how the formula worked when I believed in it but quickly fell apart when shown it did nothing to change the real house edge. To make matters worse, I'd occasionally run into the guy who showed me the formula and he would have a big bankroll he'd claim he just won.
Quote: DieterQuote: ijk01What I am seeking is the overall house edge given the betting pattern I described.
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Welcome to the forum.
Betting patterns - or systems - do not alter the house edge.
The dice do not care if the chips were just warmed up by your hand, or if they've been sitting in the rail.
I'm glad you found a style of play you enjoy.
I hope it has generally done ok for you.
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I think everyone is missing the point. He gets the single bet HE, but doesn’t know how to calculate how many bets, on average, he has in play. It’s a modified dark side three point Molly problem. Maybe Ace2 could solve it or Don could sim it, if either were so inclined.
No one ever craps out. They 7 out.
But was it *because* he talked to a math guy?Quote: poli2k01During the time you were winning, you happened to be on the positive EV spectrum. And after talking to the mathematician, the odds eventually evened out on you.
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Maybe this is what Tuttigym has been getting at all along. Say you have a disease, but you start taking XYZ superfood and by god you start to get better! Then you talk to a doctor who says it's impossible it would help. Next thing you know, your improvement vanishes. You gotta hate that guy!
Tuttigym?