ijk01
ijk01
Joined: Nov 20, 2009
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November 18th, 2021 at 4:05:29 PM permalink
I play craps as a donít bettor. My play method is as follows:
When a new shooter picks up the dice I place 4 units (the amount is irrelevant, but for this example I will use $25 per unit) in my hand. That is the total amount ($100) I will risk on any one shooter.
My betting pattern is as follows:
Bet one unit on the donít pass
If the 7 or 11 come out I will then place one unit again on the donít pass, however if the 2 or 3 come out I will place the unit won back in my rack Not in my hand
If the first roll establishes a ďnumberĒ I will then bet a 2nd unit on the donít come. Again with this 2nd bet if the roll is a 2 or 3 I will place the unit won in my rack Not my hand and leave both bets up. If itís an 11 I will place another unit on donít come. If itís a 7 the shooters roll is over and I will have broken even and start again with 4 units in my hand for the next shooter.
If however the 2nd roll is another number, but not the first number, I will again place another donít come bet. However, If I tís the original pass number, at that point I will have lost a unit, again have a unit against that number from my donít come bet and will place a unit on the donít pass.
I do this until I am against three numbers or have no more units to play in my hand. If this happens without any decision being made, I will then still have one of my original units in my hand.
If for example the first three rolls come out 4,5,6, I will at that point be against those numbers. If one of these is hit before a crap out I will then make a new donít pass or donít come as appropriate with the one unit left in my hand.
In short I never risk more than four units total against any one shooter, never place any ďcrapsĒ roll winnings in my hand or takedown any bets, nor do I lay behind. If however I win a bet(s) because a shooter has hit the pass number and I still have one or two donít come bets on the board (regardless of whether or not I also have a unit placed on a new donít pass bet) and a seven comes next (for the shooter it will be a come out roll) I will place those 2 or 4 units in my hand and continue to bet against the shooter as described above.
My question is what is the house edge against me playing this way. I will appreciate all relevant replies or if you have a question please ask.
BTW I have played this way for over 45 years and have won some and lost some and have been well comped throughput this time.
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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November 18th, 2021 at 4:19:08 PM permalink
House edge for all craps bets listed here:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Craps
Itís all about making that GTA
ijk01
ijk01
Joined: Nov 20, 2009
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November 19th, 2021 at 5:53:45 AM permalink
Thanks for replying. However, this does not provide me with information I am seeking as it only shows the house edge for each individual bet made, not the edge on the series of bets. Remember that if I have three bets on the table against three numbers and the shooter craps out, I collect on all three. However if I have three bets on the table against three numbers and the shooter hits one I am still alive against the other two and depending when in the sequence this occurs I may then have an additional wager still in my hand to bet the donít pas/come on the next roll. What I am seeking is the overall house edge given the betting pattern I described.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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November 19th, 2021 at 6:29:44 AM permalink
Quote: ijk01

Thanks for replying. However, this does not provide me with information I am seeking as it only shows the house edge for each individual bet made, not the edge on the series of bets. Remember that if I have three bets on the table against three numbers and the shooter craps out, I collect on all three. However if I have three bets on the table against three numbers and the shooter hits one I am still alive against the other two and depending when in the sequence this occurs I may then have an additional wager still in my hand to bet the donít pas/come on the next roll. What I am seeking is the overall house edge given the betting pattern I described.
link to original post


If I am reading your strategy right, all you are doing is making don't pass and don't come bets. The house edge is 1.36%.
Dieter
Administrator
Dieter
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
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Thanks for this post from:
Yoyomama
November 19th, 2021 at 7:13:58 AM permalink
Quote: ijk01

What I am seeking is the overall house edge given the betting pattern I described.
link to original post



Welcome to the forum.

Betting patterns - or systems - do not alter the house edge.
The dice do not care if the chips were just warmed up by your hand, or if they've been sitting in the rail.

I'm glad you found a style of play you enjoy.
I hope it has generally done ok for you.
May the cards fall in your favor.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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November 19th, 2021 at 8:08:51 AM permalink
Years ago, someone showed me a betting strategy for Sic Bo that they claimed had a mathematical edge in the players' favor. We played together for a few hours, with me mimicking his bets and I won a few bucks. That afternoon we separated and I played in two different casinos. Betting table minimums, I almost doubled my money in two different casinos. I honestly thought I'd been handed the keys to the kingdom.
The bus ride home from AC went by in a flash as I dreamed about what to do with my new wealth, and how I had the power to change people's lives just by sharing my secret with them.
I had a customer who was allegedly a genius. He had worked for Bell Labs and supposedly created something that saved billions and had gotten a seven-figure bonus for it that let him retire early. He now worked tutoring rich kids. I figured he would be the perfect person to show my strategy to for verification.
He listened, smiled, and ripped the idea to pieces. I didn't understand his first explanation, nor his second but finally, he used fourth-grade math to show the formula was horribly flawed and he then proceeded to write out a huge formula that showed I was actually playing at a disadvantage identical to what every book said was the overall house edge. I was crushed but not entirely convinced he was right.
The strange thing was the formula worked as long as I believed it was correct, but after consulting this man, it didn't work anymore. My next three sessions were all losers and the only reason I didn't give back all my winnings was I cut the last session short.
To this day I'm baffled by how the formula worked when I believed in it but quickly fell apart when shown it did nothing to change the real house edge. To make matters worse, I'd occasionally run into the guy who showed me the formula and he would have a big bankroll he'd claim he just won.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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November 19th, 2021 at 9:23:02 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Quote: ijk01

What I am seeking is the overall house edge given the betting pattern I described.
link to original post



Welcome to the forum.

Betting patterns - or systems - do not alter the house edge.
The dice do not care if the chips were just warmed up by your hand, or if they've been sitting in the rail.

I'm glad you found a style of play you enjoy.
I hope it has generally done ok for you.
link to original post



I think everyone is missing the point. He gets the single bet HE, but doesnít know how to calculate how many bets, on average, he has in play. Itís a modified dark side three point Molly problem. Maybe Ace2 could solve it or Don could sim it, if either were so inclined.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
FatGeezus
FatGeezus
Joined: Jun 12, 2010
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November 19th, 2021 at 11:39:03 AM permalink
- "If one of these is hit before a crap out"

No one ever craps out. They 7 out.
poli2k01
poli2k01
Joined: Aug 17, 2020
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November 20th, 2021 at 2:11:38 AM permalink
During the time you were winning, you happened to be on the positive EV spectrum. And after talking to the mathematician, the odds eventually evened out on you.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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November 20th, 2021 at 2:24:07 AM permalink
Quote: poli2k01

During the time you were winning, you happened to be on the positive EV spectrum. And after talking to the mathematician, the odds eventually evened out on you.
link to original post

But was it *because* he talked to a math guy?

Maybe this is what Tuttigym has been getting at all along. Say you have a disease, but you start taking XYZ superfood and by god you start to get better! Then you talk to a doctor who says it's impossible it would help. Next thing you know, your improvement vanishes. You gotta hate that guy!

Tuttigym?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

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