The Adventures of MDawg II

Oh when I read the title I thought it was going to be about A.Wolf and me.

Quote: unJon

The 25% of the tie bet assertion happened.

Correct. I have never asserted an average tie win percentage other than about 25%.

Subsets of my tie bets, such as larger bets (up to $5000. on the tie) I have had greater success at. Also during a session or so, pit bosses have remarked that I was winning nearly all of my tie bets.

But my assertion is 25% or so.

Quote: MDawg

Quote: unJon

The 25% of the tie bet assertion happened.

Correct. I have never asserted an average tie win percentage other than about 25%.

Subsets of my tie bets, such as larger bets (up to $5000. on the tie) I have had greater success at. Also during a session or so, pit bosses have remarked that I was winning nearly all of my tie bets.

But my assertion is 25% or so.
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Since tie happens slightly less than 10% of the time, a win % of 25% (or so!) is so astounding as to frankly be not credible. I of course don’t know how many tie bets you have made in your career, but from your number of trip reports andmentions of tie bets it must be in the thousands. Winning 250 out of 1000 tie bets is so unlikely that it assuredly has never happened, barring cheating of some sort.

How many tie bets do you think you’ve made?

Can a ‘math guy’ give us the likelihood of winning 250 (or more!) of 1000 tie bets?

That depends on how many ties are left in the shoe.

Quote: MDawg

The most relevant factor is - how many ties in that shoe? Pushing 20 or just 2?

Shooting fish in a barrel crammed with fish is easier than in a sparsely populated lake.

But the shoes I played had above average ties. And as always I rarely bet the tie.
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MDawg has been almost too busy to take no prisoners lately. Almost.

Wynn got fined too.

Wynn agrees to settle anti-money laundering violation, pay $5.5 million fine to Nevada regulators

Things have really gotten tight in the AML department.