The Adventures of MDawg II

Oh when I read the title I thought it was going to be about A.Wolf and me.

Quote: unJon

The 25% of the tie bet assertion happened.

Correct. I have never asserted an average tie win percentage other than about 25%.

Subsets of my tie bets, such as larger bets (up to $5000. on the tie) I have had greater success at. Also during a session or so, pit bosses have remarked that I was winning nearly all of my tie bets.

But my assertion is 25% or so.

Quote: MDawg

Quote: unJon

The 25% of the tie bet assertion happened.

Correct. I have never asserted an average tie win percentage other than about 25%.

Subsets of my tie bets, such as larger bets (up to $5000. on the tie) I have had greater success at. Also during a session or so, pit bosses have remarked that I was winning nearly all of my tie bets.

But my assertion is 25% or so.
link to original post

Since tie happens slightly less than 10% of the time, a win % of 25% (or so!) is so astounding as to frankly be not credible. I of course don’t know how many tie bets you have made in your career, but from your number of trip reports andmentions of tie bets it must be in the thousands. Winning 250 out of 1000 tie bets is so unlikely that it assuredly has never happened, barring cheating of some sort.

How many tie bets do you think you’ve made?

Can a ‘math guy’ give us the likelihood of winning 250 (or more!) of 1000 tie bets?

That depends on how many ties are left in the shoe.

Quote: MDawg

The most relevant factor is - how many ties in that shoe? Pushing 20 or just 2?

Shooting fish in a barrel crammed with fish is easier than in a sparsely populated lake.

But the shoes I played had above average ties. And as always I rarely bet the tie.
link to original post

MDawg has been almost too busy to take no prisoners lately. Almost.

Wynn got fined too.

Wynn agrees to settle anti-money laundering violation, pay $5.5 million fine to Nevada regulators

Things have really gotten tight in the AML department.

Too hot in Vegas, going back to Staadt for a while.

The JCK show was something though popped in for a few days just to visit that and pick up some diamantes at wholesale.

Made it out of town just in time.

Two dead in shooting near Bellagio fountains on Las Vegas Strip

A friend of mine fed me some video from a stadium Baccarat game because knows that I beat the game, but watching the games as they proceeded it seemed that even tracking all the cards isn't enough to assure a win. I did guide to a win, after had been in the hole before contacting me, but it was slight.

My wife was around during the overseas call, not that the time zone difference was the issue but it was late where we are, but finally she got tired of hearing the play by play analysis, so I had to cut it short and wish luck.

One thing my friend does, which is very hard to overcome in terms of net gain, is bet the tie every single hand. I kept trying to say that you can't do that, but wouldn't listen.

Quote: MDawg

Quote: MDawg

He was playing six decks "only" apparently. 😁


Nico Zoographic
Nicolas “Nicky the Greek” Zoographic is a famous baccarat player who lived during the early twentieth century. He was a member of a group of gamblers who toured European casinos. They made a fortune playing high-stakes games of baccarat, and Zoographic was renowned for his memorization skills and mathematical abilities. His memory allowed him to memorize every card in a baccarat game and alerted his team when the odds were in their favor.

During the early 20th century, Zoographic was a member of the Greek Syndicate, which controlled all baccarat tables. He had an amazing memory, and he was able to remember the order of three dozen cards when played with six decks. Zoographic also had an amazing ability to gauge fluctuations in odds in favor of the bank, and he was able to make the best bets according to that information.
link to original post

If you believe that knowing everything about what cards have been played and what are left makes a difference then it is possible to use one's brain or a computer to derive an edge.

This is not to say that this is the only Baccarat advantage play. There are more mundane but even more effective ones unrelated to perfect memorization.
link to original post

But somehow Nico did win using just that same ability I have, but I think the advantage I hold of occasionally knowing what the first card out of the deck will be is what turns the tide.

Have you looked at the aras plus v2 thread?

Let's just say that I don't know what he is doing.

Big blackjack player playing $25K a hand supposedly denied a smoothie by pit boss at Resorts World Vegas

I watched the video it is unclear to me what is going on (or not going on).

However, it is possible that the guy is currently overcomped. Comps are based on either of these:

Perpetual Comp Machine

10% of actual loss , or up to 40% of theo loss, whichever is greater.

So the guy supposedly lost a million beforehand, that's worth a hundred grand of comps assuming his theo didn't warrant more than that. He might have already burned through that and maybe at this moment he shows as overcomped. Heavy action and extended stays like I have enjoyed in Vegas cannot be sustained by losses, in my case I would have had to lose on the order of millions of dollars per year (one year recently burned through something like a half mill in comps, which would have required a straight loss of $5M that year to justify from the casino's perspective). Monster comps like I have received over the years are sustainable only by theo loss, which in my case is representative of winning, but could for someone else be representative of breaking even or a small loss. This is why the guy who loses twenty grand at a sitting is barely able to stay at the resort in a suite for more than a few nights comped, while the guy who sits at the table playing for hours and neither wins nor loses might have built up enough comps to stay a week.

Getting back to being overcomped - I recall once years ago (before my decade or so hiatus from gaming) I was told that I had negative comps when I asked for something from a pit boss, but the pit boss just overrode it and extended the comp anyway (this was back when pit bosses could issue comps directly for say, restaurants). Maybe in this case, this RW pit boss couldn't override the negative comp balance the guy was showing at that moment.

Or this video could be representative of something as simple as that at RW, pit bosses don't have discretion to comp anything that is not served directly by the cocktail servers. Or it could be a glitch - When RW first opened, I clocked them for six figures that same night, and ended up having to pay for my own late night meal at their food court, because their system wasn't working yet and hadn't applied any comps to my account.

When I am at RW playing, but not staying, and I want something like a meal at the Crockford's butler service area, or at a restaurant, I don't ask a pit boss I ask a host to load the comp onto my player card.

Things definitely have changed from the way it was a couple decades ago. For example the cigarette / cigar girl: At Cosmo I have asked for cigars for friends, and the girl can't simply hand them over, the pit boss has to look up your account and apply the value of the comp to it on his computer before giving her the okay.

And I will say that overall, RW Vegas has gotten tighter with comps over the past year compared to when they opened.