Split bet progression in Roulette

Since Roulette has a better HA than the Yo bet in craps, I was thinking of making a single split bet, and run a progression on that. Now with dice, you can DI the dice, or lose trying; but with Roulette the dealer has the magic touch, or the computer if you're on a machine. So I was gonna run a progression of $3, $6, $12, $25, $50 (max bet, and it stays up until a loss) on a split bet. The machine minimum is $3. If I multiplied all that by 5 I could get on a $15 table (but the local $15 table has a $100 max bet). Here's the problem, the same numbers don't usually show up in a row, but they could. Is it better to stick with the same numbers, or fish around on hunches for more likely numbers? I could sit out 3 spins if I think the 4th spin after a 0 would be another 0. But I'm trying to get 6 hits in a row and the odds are steep.

Quote: ChumpChange

Here's the problem, the same numbers don't usually show up in a row, but they could. Is it better to stick with the same numbers, or fish around on hunches for more likely numbers? I could sit out 3 spins if I think the 4th spin after a 0 would be another 0. But I'm trying to get 6 hits in a row and the odds are steep.
link to original post

If you are betting on any numbers, columns, corners, or street, it makes absolutely no difference which you bet on, or whether you stick with the same or fish around on hunches.
Note: Don't play double zero or triple zero games.
If you can find a single zero game, find out if it has the 'La partage' rule. With that rule, the house edge on the even money wagers is only 1/74 = 1.35% Twice as good as the house advantage on any other roulette wager.

Sitting out does nothing to change your probability of coming out ahead.... But it does mean you wager slower, which is never a bad thing on a -EV game.

Have fun. Don't expect to win.

Alternatively. Play any roulette variant and wager only on winning numbers.

I could bring $300 and bet $3 a spin for hours, but if I hit the 3 in a row split bets, I'll get my buy-in back on the win.
I doubt there's a single zero game within 200 miles of me. I just have to stay off the more popular triple zero game.

Quote: ChumpChange

I could bring $300 and bet $3 a spin for hours, but if I hit the 3 in a row split bets, I'll get my buy-in back on the win.
I doubt there's a single zero game within 200 miles of me. I just have to stay off the more popular triple zero game.
link to original post

Put all your buy-in on red. If it hits, you'll get your buy-in back on the win. Save lots of time, either way.

Quote: ChumpChange

I could bring $300 and bet $3 a spin for hours, but if I hit the 3 in a row split bets, I'll get my buy-in back on the win.
I doubt there's a single zero game within 200 miles of me. I just have to stay off the more popular triple zero game.
link to original post

If you can afford $300 to lose at roulette why not go somewhere that has single zero? From most places in the U. S. you can fly to Vegas for $300.

18 x 18 = 324 spins just to hit two in a row
18 x 18 x 18 = 5,832 spins to hit 3 in a row
Well, this is gonna take more time than I thought.
As for HA, 5,832 x $3 = $17,496 (not counting my presses)
$17,496 x 5.26% HA = -$920
$17,496 x 2.70% HA = -$473
$17,496 x 1.35% HA = -$236
So yes, I should play the 1.35% HA wheel so I don't get my entire BR eaten up by HA before I win it back.

I don't fly anymore. Maybe I'll get a Tesla to self drive me to Vegas. I hear there's gonna be a new one for $22K next year for 2022. I hope the air conditioning is great!

Quote: ChumpChange

18 x 18 = 324 spins just to hit two in a row
18 x 18 x 18 = 5,832 spins to hit 3 in a row
Well, this is gonna take more time than I thought.
As for HA, 5,832 x $3 = $17,496 (not counting my presses)
$17,496 x 5.26% HA = -$920
$17,496 x 2.70% HA = -$473
$17,496 x 1.35% HA = -$236
So yes, I should play the 1.35% HA wheel so I don't get my entire BR eaten up by HA before I win it back.

I don't fly anymore. Maybe I'll get a Tesla to self drive me to Vegas. I hear there's gonna be a new one for $22K next year for 2022. I hope the air conditioning is great!
link to original post

You made a mistake: There is no roulette that offers a 1.35% House edge on splits. That House advantage only applies to the even money bets on a single zero wheel with the La Partage rule ( rare as hens teeth)

So, let me get this straight, you propose to keep playing $3 splits until you hit 3 in a row. Let's analyse a little further. Using single zero game
Payout on success = $3x18x18x18=$17496
Probability of success on any one first spin = 1 in (2/37)^3 = 1 in 6332 So expect to hit once (on average) while wagering $3 x 6332 = $18996 with an expected value of -$1,500

You would do better playing an even money wager with La Partage and let it ride 12 or 13 times.

E&OE

I think your system may work.

Quote: mwalz9

I think your system may work.
link to original post

Define 'work' in this context?
Be amusing? Raise adrenaline levels? Lose slowly?

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: mwalz9

I think your system may work.
link to original post

Define 'work' in this context?
Be amusing? Raise adrenaline levels? Lose slowly?
link to original post

Work in this context: You will likely succeed enough times in the short term that you feel you have a sound strategy and have conquered beating the casino at their own game. You tell anyone who will listen about it and feel like you have a master secret. Then, one day, it doesn't work and you realize you didn't and just fell victim to the house edge. If you continue to use this system for the rest of your life you will end few standard deviations away from the house edge for that game.

Quote: OnceDear

on a single zero wheel with the La Partage rule ( rare as hens teeth)

i don't think they're that rare, i've seen them at most high-limit rooms in strip casinos (cosmo, aria, wynn, bellagio)