GUARANTEED 1 UNIT A DAY PROFIT?

I saw this Asian guy who lives overseas on Facebook touting this. He has shown proof that it works and has shown both the wins, and screenshots of claims being paid. Has anyone else heard about this system?

Basically, its a 7 step marty on PLAYER in baccarat. You bet up to 7 times on player and 7 times only. You win 1 unit per day and MUST quit for the day. If you get up 1 unit, there is your 1 unit. Here's the catch, he pays an insurance company 30% of his 1 unit wager daily. If he loses the 7 step marty and shows proof he followed the previously mentioned rules, the insurance company pays him back his entire bankroll used for those 7 steps and his daily 1 unit win.

So to make the conversation easy, assume his daily unit goal is $5. He starts with $635. Bets $5/$10/$20, etc until he wins one. Win one and quit for the day, Lose all $635 and get back $640. The catch is he pays $1.50 to this insurance company daily. So technically he nets $3.50 a day, but it's risk free.

He has shown proof it works but is only available in his country. Anyone heard of such a thing?

Quote: mwalz9

I saw this Asian guy who lives overseas on Facebook touting this. He has shown proof that it works and has shown both the wins, and screenshots of claims being paid. Has anyone else heard about this system?

He has shown proof it works but is only available in his country. Anyone heard of such a thing?

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Sounds like his Insurer needs to learn some maths.... Or is bogus.

It sounds as if this individual (in Asia) is exploiting an insurance company. The scheme you are mentioning will fail on those infrequent occasions when you lose 8 times in a row - and the amount you will lose is much larger than the amount that you win when not losing as many as 8 in a row. In this case that you specify, the bettor will be made whole on his '8x in a row" losses by an insurance company, but the premiums he is paying are not enough to prevent the insurance company from losing money.

What kind of proof does he need to furnish that followed the agreed upon rules? I ask, because assembling that proof may be burdensome - and because the insurance company is always able to rule that the proof is not adequate and to withhold.

Anyway, in your example the player does indeed profit but the insurance company will lose a lot of money over and over again. How long do you think that such an insurance policy would be sustained?

You NEVER play 8 times in a row. After 7 losses you file the insurance claim!

Quote: mwalz9

You NEVER play 8 times in a row. After 7 losses you file the insurance claim!

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Okay, then just modify my response above and substitute 7 everywhere I have said 8. The sense of what I am saying is unchanged.

You have to show screen shots from your account showing you played EXACTLY to the rules mentioned. NO extra hands. Only 1 unit a day. A max of 7 bets. Always a 7 step Marty. Any variation, the claim is void. He has shown proof it was paid.

What is the math on the amount the insurance company would have to collect to make this +EV for them?

After 423.3 days the have collected the 127 units that covers paying once. I know a 7 step Marty works most days, and we all know the day you lose 7 or 8 in a row is what makes the marty a bad idea. Just wondered does 30% of the 1 unit not make this +EV for the insurance company based on the math?

Ignoring ties, which a Marty in baccarat will, player wins 49.32% of the time. The chance of losing a seven step Marty is then:

(1-0.4932)^7 = 0.85873%

So for a $5 unit, the insurance company makes $1.67 in premium and pays $640 0.85873% of the time for a -$5.50 expectation.

The insurance company has EV of -$3.82 a day.

Let's just assume that baccarat was a 50/50 game; no house edge. Looking ahead, we will expect that the player will break even.

On average, for 127 out of 128 days we expect that the player will win 5 units/day, so he will win 127 *5= 635 units on those days.

On average, in 1 of those 128 days he will have lost seven martingale bets in a row: that's 5+10+20+40+80+160+320 =635 units.

So, on average, with a 50/50 game, the player breaks even.

Now, let's say that an insurance company insures his losses when the play loses 7x in a row at a premium of 1.50 units per day (including day 128 when you lose 7x in a row.)

So, this company will receive premiums equal to 1.50 *128 = 192 units over each 128 days. However, the company must payout 635 units once, on average, over each 128 day period. So an insurance company can't make money by collecting 192 units (per every 128 days) and paying out 635 units (per every 128 days.)

Of course, the player expects to profit, over 128 days, by this amount: 128 * 5 *0.85 (winnings-premiums) +635 (from the insurance company) =1,078 units.

All of these numbers become more unfavorable when you add into the arithmetic that the house edge is not Zero, but instead is about 1.1%. The insurance company will lose more than their premiums and could not show a profit if they required 100% of the player's winnings as premiums.

I guess the insurance company banks on people paying premiums who can't follow the rules.

Many gamblers, I imagine, have a hard time only playing so little they win 1 unit per day. Or following the 7 step marty to a T.

Quote: mwalz9

I guess the insurance company banks on people paying premiums who can't follow the rules.

Many gamblers, I imagine, have a hard time only playing so little they win 1 unit per day. Or following the 7 step marty to a T.

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It's more simple than that, this story is made up and cannot be true. Even in weird third world Asian countries any insurance company would have the sense to close that person's account. Even if this was some kind of scam, say your friend is the insurance agent and they are screwing their employer, the math just doesn't work for you and me. We don't have the ethical or practical ability to do what this one weird Asian gambler can do.

What was I thinking clicking on this post?

Quote: DeMango

What was I thinking clicking on this post?

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I would like it to be noted, I don't promote, believe in, or use this system. I was just asking if anyone had heard of such a thing. It seemed ludacris to me when I saw it on Facebook.

Quote: mwalz9

... we all know the day you lose 7 or 8 in a row is what makes the marty a bad idea. Just wondered does 30% of the 1 unit not make this +EV for the insurance company based on the math?

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The fact you know it is a bad idea is because 100% of a 1 unit does not make it +EV for the insurer. So how would 30% do? ^_^"

Quote: tyler498

Quote: mwalz9

... we all know the day you lose 7 or 8 in a row is what makes the marty a bad idea. Just wondered does 30% of the 1 unit not make this +EV for the insurance company based on the math?

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The fact you know it is a bad idea is because 100% of a 1 unit does not make it +EV for the insurer. So how would 30% do? ^_^"

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Thats not true, is it? If the insurer got 100% of 1 unit, theyd have a 7 step marty collected in 127 days. The math says you can expect to lose 7 bets in a row less than 1 time in 127.

Basically what Im trying to say is the odds of winning 1 unit before losing 7 bets in a row is greater than 1 in 127. Right?

Quote: mwalz9

Quote: tyler498

Quote: mwalz9

... we all know the day you lose 7 or 8 in a row is what makes the marty a bad idea. Just wondered does 30% of the 1 unit not make this +EV for the insurance company based on the math?

link to original post

The fact you know it is a bad idea is because 100% of a 1 unit does not make it +EV for the insurer. So how would 30% do? ^_^"

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Thats not true, is it? If the insurer got 100% of 1 unit, theyd have a 7 step marty collected in 127 days. The math says you can expect to lose 7 bets in a row less than 1 time in 127.

Basically what Im trying to say is the odds of winning 1 unit before losing 7 bets in a row is greater than 1 in 127. Right?

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I ran the math already. The -EV of the insurer is more than $5 a day with no premium. So with a $5 premium the insurer still loses. Because of course it has to work that way.

Posted in error.