My Blackjack betting strategy
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Thoughts?
what about it, Chumpchange?Quote: donutdudeThoughts?
Paying yourself for a push is interesting, but suppose you paid yourself for sitting out a hand.
If reducing your bet 10% somehow improves your long term success, wouldn't reducing it by 40% be better? 60%? 115%? I believe it was Ian Anderson who said "You won't lose 100% of the bets you don't make"
Quote: donutdudeI start betting $50 and go back to $50 after each loss. After a win I bet $47.50 which means I took $52.50. If I win again I pull $50. Which means my next bet is $45. If I win I pull $50 which means my next bet is $40. If I win again I pull $50 which means my next bet is $30. Using this method I can win $50 five times in a row wagering ever lower bets. Granted if I win 6 times in a row I've only got $10 bet, but how often do you win 6 hands in a row? In fact, I've even gotten to the point where I pull off a chip after a push (basically paying myself for a push). If I win one and lose one I'm not even, I'm up $2.50. Seems to work well at a choppy table
Thoughts?
Quote: ChumpChangeI can't figure that strategy out, but I increase my bets on a win up to 7 to 9 wins in a row depending on the table max.
It sounds like donutdude lowers his bet after a win. ChumpChange increases his bet after a win.
I tend to increase my bet after a win - I push into a winning streak. I don't increase my bet after every win, but I rarely decrease my bet after a win. While the times when you cut your bet after a big bet win, and then lose, will linger as memorable dodged that bullet victories, over all I've done better with increasing after a win. This implies that I tend to win at least three in a row more often than not after pressing.
Also, as long as I get at least one long streak often enough, the pressing into that one long streak generally carries me beyond the losses from the failed streaks.
Quote: MDawgIt sounds like donutdude lowers his bet after a win. ChumpChange increases his bet after a win.
I tend to increase my bet after a win - I push into a winning streak. While the times when you cut your bet after a big bet win, and then lose, will linger as memorable dodged that bullet victories, over all I've done better with increasing after a win. This implies that I tend to win at least three in a row more often than not.
Only three in a row?
I've also done really aggressive presses: 1000, 3000, 9000. But I have never gone beyond that to 27000 for the 4th win, at least not directly after that particular 3X per hand press. Looking back, I wish I had more often than not. But in any case, the point being - if pressing, need to win three in a row in order to be in the money.
Also note what I added above before you quoted:
As long as I get at least one long streak often enough, the pressing into that one long streak generally carries me beyond the losses from the failed streaks.
But if your strategy is to always lower your bet after a win, then you'll lose out on the mass dollars from the long streaks, even if you do save pennies from losses on the failed streaks.
Quote: MDawgThree in a row - say initial bet 100, second bet 150, third bet 200. Need to win at least three in order to wind up ahead.
.
My first four bets would be $100, $150, $150, $200. I'm even at +1 unit on the second win, same as if I flat betted. Keeping the 3rd bet the same allows this.
Quote: MDawgBut CChange, once you have won 9 in a row and assuming you have pressed all along the way, why cut? You're in the money no matter what. You can't anticipate when the streak will end, maybe it will go to 10, 11, 12...16, etc. If you don't take full advantage of that monster streak that comes along occasionally you'll have a hard time ever winning big.
The streak is over when I lose a bet. If I have a crazy hand with splits or double downs that results in an overall push, I'll keep with the series. If I win enough from the series, I may raise my minimum bet 50% or 100% or more, but that's a different calculation.
On the second hand I am risking -50 to win +250. If I win the second hand, up 250, if I lose it, -50.
Quote: donutdudeI start betting $50 and go back to $50 after each loss. After a win I bet $47.50 which means I took $52.50. If I win again I pull $50. Which means my next bet is $45. If I win I pull $50 which means my next bet is $40. If I win again I pull $50 which means my next bet is $30. Using this method I can win $50 five times in a row wagering ever lower bets. Granted if I win 6 times in a row I've only got $10 bet, but how often do you win 6 hands in a row? In fact, I've even gotten to the point where I pull off a chip after a push (basically paying myself for a push). If I win one and lose one I'm not even, I'm up $2.50. Seems to work well at a choppy table
Thoughts?
Borrowed from Stanford Wong's book titled Professional Blackjack Page 241:
Outcomes Versus results of previous two hands
previous two hands outcome of this hand
win lose push
win,win .432 .478 .089
win, lose
win, push
lose, win
lose, lose
lose, push All results are identical to the win, win results
push, win
push, lose
push, push
"This means there is no relationship whatsoever between what happens on this hand and whether you have won, lost, or pushed on the previous two hands.
Quote: donutdudeIt is true if I win 6 in a row I'd have to come up with $40 to bring it back to $50. That is a problem. But considering how many times I'll win 2 and 3 and 4 and 5 times and then lose only $40, or $30 or $10 makes up for it in my mind. Hell, you can play for hours and not win 6 in a row! Splits, double downs and BJ's are also a factor. I'm just putting it out there as I've never seen this as a system. Rather that trying to increase my average win, I'm decreasing my average loss.
Aren't you actually reducing the amount of your wins by the same amount you are decreasing your losses? All you seem to be doing is varying your wager.
$50
$47.50
$45
$40
$30
I pull off the table
$52.50
$50
$50
$50
$50
Strategy would be using loaded dice in craps or counting cards in blackjack. The former being a cheating strategy, the latter is legit
Quote: donutdudeWell, thats why I put it out there, to hear other points of view. Granted, if I get a BJ on a $40 bet I only win $60 (but then again I only wagered $40) Also, since I would be reducing my bet to $30 I really would be pulling $70 off the table anyway.
In BJ, you are playing at about a -1% expected value, meaning for every dollar you bet, you will get ninety-nine cents back on. Doesn't matter how much you bet, or how often you bet. Nothing you are doing is changing that. It's not a horrible way to play, but it doesn't give you any advantage. Spend a couple of weeks learning how to count cards and you may find an edge. Varying your bets does not give you an edge.
On the higher probability hands I bet more, but as subsequent hands appeared more probable too, I started betting in sequence, pressing after the win. I did lower my bet on lower probability hands. But in general, I simply pressed after each win, without thinking about it. I just did it.
Relevance: donutdude if had followed your "advice" today I would have won a lot less.
Real world too: in the session which the Wizard witnessed me playing, I won 8/8 out of a run. My highest bet was 3500 in that sequence, and I did press the entire way.
So, my contention is that it is not only possible, but preferable to press into a run than always cut your bet after a win.
Granted, if you are playing a session where you can't win a hand to save your life, then cutting your bet (or simply leaving) is best...but over time, I have found that pressing after a win works better for me than cutting the bet.
You also said something about how it may take hours for you to win six hands in a row, i.e. that it rarely happens. Well, first of all, you don't have to win six in a row to make a press profitable. Just at least two in a row regularly. And, as noted above, I was witnessed winning 8/8 just minutes into a session, and I contend that winning six in a row isn't all that unlikely.
When do you decide to leave?
Typically, after a winning sequence, I consider what my average bet was for that session. If what I have won is a good sum compared with my average bet, I almost always get up and leave right then and there, because in my opinion it implies a higher than average variance, among other things that we won't get into.
I don't have a set goal. Some days winning a huge amount I still might have sold myself short because even more was available, and other days I'm lucky to win anything at all. It sounds like you are saying something somewhat along those same lines.
Quote: donutdudeOh, no doubt I've left some on the table too, but it can get bad FAST! I keep a spread sheet of won/lost total won and my average. This keeps my feet on the ground. If I've won 3-4 times in a row, I'm happy to leave up $200 to keep the run going. A couple weeks ago I put my first $50 bet and won a double down. Call me stupid, but I left after 2 min up $100. Granted, I live very close to 2 casinos, so I could go every day if I wanted to.
My kind of man. I have a $100/day win goal. Some days I've been there 10 mins and leave. Some days 4-5 hours. I do go every single day.
Exceptions are Saturday nights. I take my gf and we go as a date night. She likes to play Rakin Bacon and craps with me. We drink and eat on my players card (Black Diamond) for free. These nights if I'm up early, I just consider it a cushion and hope too leave these nights even.
I typically play the DONTS on craps or Blackjack. Last Saturday we had about 8 drinks a piece, free nachos from the bar, and she lost $60 trying to get the pig to bust on Rakin Bacon. I won $175 playing craps with her, so I gave her her $60 back and kept $115. Not many date nights make money.
If I lost, it was a date, I'm supposed to pay. That's the way I see it.
taking advantage of the positive variance? Interesting👍Quote: MDawgQuestion for donutdude:
When do you decide to leave?
Typically, after a winning sequence, I consider what my average bet was for that session. If what I have won is a good sum compared with my average bet, I almost always get up and leave right then and there, because in my opinion it implies a higher than average variance, among other things that we won't get into.
and what about leaving and coming back later on the same day? And several times a day, or even switching tables?Quote: MDawgUnderstood.
I don't have a set goal. Some days winning a huge amount I still might have sold myself short because even more was available, and other days I'm lucky to win anything at all. It sounds like you are saying something somewhat along those same lines.
it's good to keep your feet on the ground and keep a running record of your win/loss👍Quote: donutdudeOh, no doubt I've left some on the table too, but it can get bad FAST! I keep a spread sheet of won/lost total won and my average. This keeps my feet on the ground. If I've won 3-4 times in a row, I'm happy to leave up $200 to keep the run going. A couple weeks ago I put my first $50 bet and won a double down. Call me stupid, but I left after 2 min up $100. Granted, I live very close to 2 casinos, so I could go every day if I wanted to.
