Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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May 13th, 2021 at 3:42:00 PM permalink
Quote: jmp116

How can you tell when a roulette wheel is in a favorable mode?



You can't. See, I knew you didn't understand something. I thought it was betting systems you thought worked. Now I see it's just dont understand how negative expectation games work and how when every possible bet is negative, it can never equal positive..


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
jmp116
jmp116
Joined: May 6, 2021
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May 13th, 2021 at 3:52:19 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

You can't. See, I knew you didn't understand something. I thought it was betting systems you thought worked. Now I see it's just dont understand how negative expectation games work and how when every possible bet is negative, it can never equal positive..


ZCore13



Man, you haven't followed a single thing in this thread. If you had, you'd know better. Go do something else.
Zcore13
Zcore13
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May 13th, 2021 at 4:17:30 PM permalink
Quote: jmp116

How can you tell when a roulette wheel is in a favorable mode?



That tells me all I need to know.



ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
jmp116
jmp116
Joined: May 6, 2021
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May 13th, 2021 at 4:43:09 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The CLT works just fine even if the bets are based on past events. The outcomes of the bets are still independent of each other, which is all you need for the CLT to hold water.



Wizard, I hope that my example about using a martingale for two rounds convinced you that X1, the amount gained on the first spin, and X2, the amount gained on the second spin, are correlated and not identical in distribution. That they aren't identical is obvious, since they don't even have the same sample space. But maybe you're still on the fence about correlation. So for the sake of math and logic, I'll calculate the covariance of X1 and X2 right here.

First the expectations:

X1 takes value -1 with probability 20/38 and +1 with probability 18/38, so E[X1] = -20/38 + 18/38 = -2/38.
X2 has conditional expectation -2/38 when the first bet wins, and conditional expectation -4/38 when the first bet loses (because we bet twice as much). So E[X2] = (18/38)(-2/38) + (20/38)(-4/38) = (-36-80)/38^2 = -116/38^2


X1*X2 takes value 1*1=1 with probability (18/38)^2, value 1*(-1) = -1 with probability (18/38)(20/38), value -1*2 = -2 with probability (20/38)(18/38), and value -1*(-2) = 2 with probability (20/38)^2. So E[X1*X2] = (18/38)^2 - 3*(18/38)(20/38) + 2*(20/38)^2 = (324 - 1080 + 800)/38^2 = 44/38^2 = 1672/38^3.


Now the covariance:

Cov(X1, X2) = E[X1*X2] - E[X1]*E[X2] = 1672/38^3 - 232/38^3 = 1440/38^3 = 0.026242892

So they are positively correlated. The Central Limit Theorem that you invoked requires that they be independent. That doesn't mean that systems work. They don't. It just means it's harder to prove than you might be aware of.
MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
Joined: Sep 17, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
jmp116
May 13th, 2021 at 11:13:11 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

You still seem to think a betting system can work.

Quite the opposite. His very first post was to link to a scholarly paper he wrote showing why they *can't*.


Quote: jmp116

How can you tell when a roulette wheel is in a favorable mode?

Quote: Zcore13

You can't. See, I knew you didn't understand something....

@Zcore, you're usually spot on the money, but you're way off base here. jmp116's question was *rhetorical*, basically saying that you *can't* know when a roulette wheel is more likely to win for you. You owe him an apology.

@jmp116, I linked to your paper in my article on betting systems. Also, since you said that you like simulations, here's a simulation I wrote based on an idea that a forum member here had about how to beat craps.
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
OnceDearMichaelBluejayjmp116
May 14th, 2021 at 1:50:23 PM permalink
Quote: MichaelBluejay

Quite the opposite. His very first post was to link to a scholarly paper he wrote showing why they *can't*.


@Zcore, you're usually spot on the money, but you're way off base here. jmp116's question was *rhetorical*, basically saying that you *can't* know when a roulette wheel is more likely to win for you. You owe him an apology.



I saw they paper, which is why I was confused on some of his other comments. I guess I misinterpreted/misunderstood what he is trying to say.

Jmp116, if in fact you understand a betting system can not overcome the house edge,, no matter what has occurred during previous spins or throws, I apologize for not understanding that.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
jmp116
jmp116
Joined: May 6, 2021
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May 14th, 2021 at 5:20:32 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

I saw they paper, which is why I was confused on some of his other comments. I guess I misinterpreted/misunderstood what he is trying to say.

Jmp116, if in fact you understand a betting system can not overcome the house edge,, no matter what has occurred during previous spins or throws, I apologize for not understanding that.


ZCore13



No worries, man :)
jmp116
jmp116
Joined: May 6, 2021
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May 14th, 2021 at 5:26:32 PM permalink
Quote: MichaelBluejay

Quite the opposite. His very first post was to link to a scholarly paper he wrote showing why they *can't*.


@Zcore, you're usually spot on the money, but you're way off base here. jmp116's question was *rhetorical*, basically saying that you *can't* know when a roulette wheel is more likely to win for you. You owe him an apology.

@jmp116, I linked to your paper in my article on betting systems. Also, since you said that you like simulations, here's a simulation I wrote based on an idea that a forum member here had about how to beat craps.



Awesome, thank you MichaelBluejay. I will go get some coffee and take a look at both of them!
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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May 14th, 2021 at 9:20:33 PM permalink
So what happens when you lay the ten and run a progression?
How about a Labby on Player?
You have a slight influence on tossing dice, either more or less sevens?

Seems it matters more on bankroll than anything else.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.

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