TumblingBones
TumblingBones
Joined: Dec 25, 2016
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 453
Thanks for this post from:
OnceDear
March 6th, 2021 at 3:12:19 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

You're correct. There is no betting system that works in the negative expectation game of craps.

But the schemes are interesting.


About 7 or so years ago, after reading thru yet another thread on this forum about winning systems for Craps, I decided to apply some of the skills acquired from my day job (in this case AI and Machine Learning) to the problem of coming up with the optimal system for Craps. As the saying goes


I decided to use one of my favorite ML techniques: a Genetic Algorithm (GA). For those not familiar these, it's basically a "survival of the fittest" approach. You create a population of a thousand or so bots that are all trying to solve the same problem. The trick is that they each have a slightly different approach to the problem where that approach is controlled by the bot's "chromosome". Each bot gets graded on how well they did. You then kill off the 90% or so that scored lowest and let the remaining 10% "breed" a new generation of bots. Keep repeating with each generation getting better and better until you're satisfied with the results. Very Darwinian.

The nice thing about using a GA is that pretty much any behavior can be included in a bot's DNA. Pressing bets, hit-n-run, rat-holing..... all covered. I tried to include everything forum members had advocated. About the only things not included was DI and staying well hydrated. The chromosomes are just strings of 0s and 1s so you just use a RNG to create a range of random behaviors for the 1st generation of bots.

Once I had my bots, I hooked them up to a simulator. Each generation had 10000 bots playing 100 sessions. A bot started a session with $500 and played until
  • it went broke,
  • it decided to quit, or
  • the session ended after ~150 passes

Each bot's score was their average bankroll at the end of each session. Variance was used to break ties if two bots had the same score (i.e., lower variance was considered better). I set the system up so it would run for a maximum of 100 generations or until the best score for each generation was no longer improving (which ever came first). Since running a GA can take a while, I hit the RUN button and then went off to lunch.

When I got back from lunch I had my "best of breed" bot. All I had to do is examine it's digital chromosome to find out what it's strategy was for playing Craps. It turned out that the optimal strategy it used was
that it never made a single bet!


So there you have it. No point in any further argument as advanced technology has given us the definitive answer as to what the best strategy is for playing Craps.
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 2783
March 6th, 2021 at 5:18:59 PM permalink
Sorry you wasted your time. D但lembert works for me
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange 
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
  • Threads: 54
  • Posts: 2382
March 7th, 2021 at 12:43:23 AM permalink
Just lost a total of 20 PL odds points in 199 rolls on WinCraps.
Tanko
Tanko
Joined: Apr 22, 2013
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 1062
March 7th, 2021 at 7:45:00 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Just lost a total of 20 PL odds points in 199 rolls on WinCraps.



It happens.

There's a section in 'Midgley's 7,500 Dice Rolls', where the PL loses 14 times in a row, over about 100 actual dice rolls.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange 
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
  • Threads: 54
  • Posts: 2382
March 8th, 2021 at 4:30:13 PM permalink
I got a new strategy and WinCraps let me win $15K on it in 300 rolls; that'd be $1500 at a $15 table. It depends on winning 7 or more PL in a row, and 7 or more odds points in a row.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 190
  • Posts: 10522
March 9th, 2021 at 7:43:51 AM permalink
Quote: TumblingBones

... snip ....
When I got back from lunch I had my "best of breed" bot. All I had to do is examine it's digital chromosome to find out what it's strategy was for playing Craps. It turned out that the optimal strategy it used was

that it never made a single bet!

You verified the logic that Joshua / WOPR used in War Games. 👍

I hope you didn稚 need to nuke Vegas in the process! 🤪
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
ChumpChange
ChumpChange 
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
  • Threads: 54
  • Posts: 2382
March 9th, 2021 at 7:48:09 AM permalink
Playing this PL & Odds progression is one long losing streak until a couple of short winning streaks comes along. I'd better go back to betting on the DP with triple odds and switching sides after 2 odds losses.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange 
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
  • Threads: 54
  • Posts: 2382
March 14th, 2021 at 6:11:05 PM permalink
Trying a DP with 3X odds and switching to PB 6 & 8 on 4 DP losses or an odds loss. WinCraps keeps sevening-out right after I place my place bets. I need to hit the place bets 4 times to come out ahead for the hand.

  • Jump to: