20% winrate in 30 hands of blackjack

Hello world! I've just lost almost $1K using L'Abouchere betting system (wich is much safer than Martingale I think) and perfect basic strategy adjusted by game rule just because I had 6 wins and 24 losses wich makes me think that shoe was rigged somehow or there was some bots on the table (Evolution online live table) or some strage thing happend because there's a too small chance for this to happen, the game beeing almost 50/50 and we are not talking about 10 hands were even there are small chances to lose 8 hands and win only 2, but f**** 30 hands. What do you think about this? What are the odds for this to happen? My bonus month when I could deposit money to get bonuses expired and I already withdrawn $500 and I had left in the game almost $1k and suddenly the whole universe goes against me. I'm waiting fore some serios and clear explanations, please! (Sorry for my bad english :)) )

You were unlucky. That's all. If any other outcome had occurred, you wouldn't have given it a second thought.
What on earth would bots at the table have changed?
I've played a lot of those evolution online live dealer games and never suspected foul play.
Someone will be along to estimate the odds, shortly. Are you SURE you had no splits or doubles? If you did, how are you counting them?

I didn't count doubles, doubles won or lost was seen by me as a simple won or loss because the bet size doesn't make any difference. A loss is a loss anyway in the case of doubles. The same story with splits, if I lose both hands I see this as a loss, if I win both hands I see this as a win and if one hand is a win and another is a loss I see this as a push. Anyway, the idea that I've won just 20% in 30 hands is disturbing for me and makes me think they are cheating somehow and I'm afraid to play blackjack again. About bots It could be possible if they could somehow scan the next card from the shoe and they will hit or stand in order to let the dealer upgrade his hand and not bust, wich increases the house edge enough to destroy me as I was a constant winner till then and maybe a threat for them. I've also seen and think that they are shuffling the cards in a speciffic way because there was 7s and 4s in the same place, 8s and 3s in the same place, giving the dealer more chances to get 21 wich even happend. I've not lost all that $1K in these 30 hands but I was left with $100+ and I've played with l'Abouchere series from the start and reached 200+ and got back to 100, then 250, then 100, then 0 because even in these sessions I had medium winrates well under 45%, some even under 40 whatever strategy I've tried to apply, like they was forcing me to lose, that's what I felt.

Quote: Sacke86

...as I was a constant winner till then and maybe a threat for them. ...whatever strategy I've tried to apply, like they was forcing me to lose, that's what I felt.

You didn't think anything was unusual when you were winning? Did you think that you had an edge? Blackjack isn't a game where you win-lose, win, lose, win lose. Sometimes you win more and sometimes the house does. But you will remember the bad extremes. Simple as that.

I had good winning series, can't lie about this, but percenteges never got this high in my favour, just about 55% maximum and I was winning more than if I would won with a static bet just because this betting strategy works this way and this strategy works even with 45% winrate if you don't have extremely high loosing series or winrates extremely low like 20% in 30 hands. I assumed before going into this that I can't get a 20% winrate from a 30 hands series (wich is not that much like 100+ but not a few like 10 either) if the game has let's say a maximum of 1% house edge. It's like flipping a f**** coin and you get 6 heads and 24 tails and I don't even played millions of hands to hit such a loosing session like this, wich should be extremely rare even for millions of hands played (My opinion), but when it happens this fast you are REALLY CURSED or the game is for sure rigged because I've played not even 3000 hands I think.

So roundish numbers you have a 42% chance of winning a BJ hand. Rest is losses and pushes. You played 30 hands so can expect to win 12.6 hands. Standard deviation of 1.15 times sqrt(30) gives you 6.3 hands standard deviation. So you’re winning six hands Means you were all of about 1.05 standard deviations off.

Next.

Quote: unJon

So roundish numbers you have a 42% chance of winning a BJ hand. Rest is losses and pushes. You played 30 hands so can expect to win 12.6 hands. Standard deviation of 1.15 times sqrt(30) gives you 6.3 hands standard deviation. So you’re winning six hands Means you were all of about 1.05 standard deviations off.

Next.

Thanks. I.e. not even mildly unusual.
OP has played about 3000 hands. He can expect to see far FAR more notable events.

I just played 350 hands in 2 hours on a demo BJ game and broke even. Can't expect ANY 5's for a 16.

Quote: unJon

So roundish numbers you have a 42% chance of winning a BJ hand. Rest is losses and pushes. You played 30 hands so can expect to win 12.6 hands. Standard deviation of 1.15 times sqrt(30) gives you 6.3 hands standard deviation. So you’re winning six hands Means you were all of about 1.05 standard deviations off.

Next.

Would do a lot better with Bac

Quote: OnceDear

You were unlucky. That's all. If any other outcome had occurred, you wouldn't have given it a second thought.
What on earth would bots at the table have changed?
I've played a lot of those evolution online live dealer games and never suspected foul play.
Someone will be along to estimate the odds, shortly. Are you SURE you had no splits or doubles? If you did, how are you counting them?

I want to correct you. You were (MOST LIKELY) unlucky. It is an online casino. He (possibly) could have been scammed. But of course, the data he provided happens so frequently as to not warrant any further discussion.

I'm struggling to understand this concept since yesterday. I understood it a little but I don't know how to apply it on blackjack. So you mean that if I had 6.3 hands ONE standard deviation there are chances to win or lose 6 hands more that normal (more or less than 12.6 hands wich came from that 42% probability of winning hands) and I was almost on the limit of that 68% zone on the bell curve where nothing's strange or unusual?

Quote: SOOPOO

I want to correct you. You were (MOST LIKELY) unlucky. It is an online casino. He (possibly) could have been scammed. But of course, the data he provided happens so frequently as to not warrant any further discussion.

You are correct. However, Evolution Gaming run many of the live dealer games that i have played and over 10s or maybe 100s of thousands of hands, I've never had cause to suspect foul play at those tables.

What's strange is the fact that I had good winrates before but nothing like 24 wins in 30 hands :)) That's what made me very suspicious. I know there are higher chances to lose but I don't think I ever had even 20 wins in 30 hands, I don't remember if something this good happend.

With apologies I used 1.15 as the BJ standard deviation but that’s not right here. Here we are ignoring doubles and splits and only concerned with hands won vs push and lost.

In that case the standard deviation is sqrt(30*0.42*0.58)=2.7

So winning 6 hands vs the expectation of 12.6 is a 2.4 standard deviation event. So unlucky but not to the level of suspicion.

Quote: OnceDear

You are correct. However, Evolution Gaming run many of the live dealer games that i have played and over 10s or maybe 100s of thousands of hands, I've never had cause to suspect foul play at those tables.

I haven’t chimed in yet because he said it was evolution... and they usually do hand shuffle and live dealer...

I know hand shuffle is possibly worst than what I consider to be a rigged deck.

I can’t even believe the words that are coming out of my mouth. I feel as if I’m in my own category of person. I’m all like “hur dur I liked rigged decks because they are better than a hand shuffle”

I always found evolution an Exception and always wondered why they never use shufflers

And another thing is that ANYTHING can happen when it comes to random, meaning whichever way the deck is shuffled is random. This guy could lose 1000 hands in a row and it would be normal am I wrong?

I'll have to take my beginner's luck win and make a 250 hands buy-in out of it.

Quote: unJon

With apologies I used 1.15 as the BJ standard deviation but that’s not right here. Here we are ignoring doubles and splits and only concerned with hands won vs push and lost.

In that case the standard deviation is sqrt(30*0.42*0.58)=2.7

So winning 6 hands vs the expectation of 12.6 is a 2.4 standard deviation event. So unlucky but not to the level of suspicion.

Isn't my winning chances about 45-46% if we exclude pushes? If chances for a push are about 8% and we substract this it will remain the winning chances of 42% and 50% of loosing and then 42 / (42+50) = 45.6% and 50 / (42+50) = 54.3%?

But anyway... 1. How did you calculate that standard deviation for this specific scenario? 2. Does this result have any relevance for winning 6 hands more than 12.6 (wich means winning 18.6 hands, not rounded)? This should be different cuz winning probability is lower than loosing probability (45.6 < 54.3) so the deviation should be lower I think. I got really confused with this standard deviation thing. If you can explain me and do the math from the scratch I would appreciate it so much, thanks!

Here is my session of 30 hands but bets are in my currency, not dollars, anyway:

L L L L L L W W L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L W W W L L L L
6 lost, 2 won, 5 lost, 1 won, 9 lost, 3 won, 4 lost and the money gone... :(

And L'Abouchere with my bets here:

Starting Bankroll: 3680.5 (Made from 500 with this same L'Abouchere as below)

L (-15) : 10, 5
L (-25) : 10, 5, 15
L (-35) : 10, 5, 15, 25
L (-45 x 2 - Double) : 10, 5, 15, 25, 35
L (-55 x 2 - Double) : 10, 5, 15, 25, 35, 45
L (-65) : 10, 5, 15, 25, 35, 45, 55
W (+75) : 10, 5, 15, 25, 35, 45, 55, 65
W (+60) : 5, 15, 25, 35, 45, 55
L (-60) : 15, 25, 35, 45
L (-75) : 15, 25, 35, 45, 60
L (-90) : 15, 25, 35, 45, 60, 75
L (-105) : 15, 25, 35, 45, 60, 75, 90
L (-120) : 15, 25, 35, 45, 60, 75, 90, 105
W (+135) : 15, 25, 35, 45, 60, 75, 90, 105, 120
L (-130) : 25, 35, 45, 60, 75, 90, 105
L (-155) : 25, 35, 45, 60, 75, 90, 105, 130
L (-180) : 25, 35, 45, 60, 75, 90, 105, 130, 155
L (-205) : 25, 35, 45, 60, 75, 90, 105, 130, 155, 180
L (-230) : 25, 35, 45, 60, 75, 90, 105, 130, 155, 180, 205
L (-255) : 25, 35, 45, 60, 75, 90, 105, 130, 155, 180, 205, 230
L (-280) : 25, 35, 45, 60, 75, 90, 105, 130, 155, 180, 205, 230, 255
L (-305) : 25, 35, 45, 60, 75, 90, 105, 130, 155, 180, 205, 230, 255, 280
L (-330) : 25, 35, 45, 60, 75, 90, 105, 130, 155, 180, 205, 230, 255, 280, 305
W (+355) : 25, 35, 45, 60, 75, 90, 105, 130, 155, 180, 205, 230, 255, 280, 305, 330
W (+340) : 35, 45, 60, 75, 90, 105, 130, 155, 180, 205, 230, 255, 280, 305
W (+325) : 45, 60, 75, 90, 105, 130, 155, 180, 205, 230, 255, 280
L (-315) : 60, 75, 90, 105, 130, 155, 180, 205, 230, 255
L (-375) : 60, 75, 90, 105, 130, 155, 180, 205, 230, 255, 315
L (-435) : 60, 75, 90, 105, 130, 155, 180, 205, 230, 255, 315, 375
L (-495) : 60, 75, 90, 105, 130, 155, 180, 205, 230, 255, 315, 375, 435

Ending Bankroll: Under 500

IF ANYBODY HAS A SLOW AND STEADY BETTING SYSTEM WICH CAN GET THROUGH THIS CRAZY LOOSING SERIES BETTER PLEASE TELL ME cuz I wanna deposit 500 again (wich is about $120)!

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