Sacke86
Sacke86
Joined: Aug 16, 2020
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November 25th, 2020 at 2:11:14 AM permalink
Hello world! I've just lost almost $1K using L'Abouchere betting system (wich is much safer than Martingale I think) and perfect basic strategy adjusted by game rule just because I had 6 wins and 24 losses wich makes me think that shoe was rigged somehow or there was some bots on the table (Evolution online live table) or some strage thing happend because there's a too small chance for this to happen, the game beeing almost 50/50 and we are not talking about 10 hands were even there are small chances to lose 8 hands and win only 2, but f**** 30 hands. What do you think about this? What are the odds for this to happen? My bonus month when I could deposit money to get bonuses expired and I already withdrawn $500 and I had left in the game almost $1k and suddenly the whole universe goes against me. I'm waiting fore some serios and clear explanations, please! (Sorry for my bad english :)) )
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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Sacke86
November 25th, 2020 at 2:35:15 AM permalink
You were unlucky. That's all. If any other outcome had occurred, you wouldn't have given it a second thought.
What on earth would bots at the table have changed?
I've played a lot of those evolution online live dealer games and never suspected foul play.
Someone will be along to estimate the odds, shortly. Are you SURE you had no splits or doubles? If you did, how are you counting them?
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
Sacke86
Sacke86
Joined: Aug 16, 2020
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November 25th, 2020 at 3:03:37 AM permalink
I didn't count doubles, doubles won or lost was seen by me as a simple won or loss because the bet size doesn't make any difference. A loss is a loss anyway in the case of doubles. The same story with splits, if I lose both hands I see this as a loss, if I win both hands I see this as a win and if one hand is a win and another is a loss I see this as a push. Anyway, the idea that I've won just 20% in 30 hands is disturbing for me and makes me think they are cheating somehow and I'm afraid to play blackjack again. About bots It could be possible if they could somehow scan the next card from the shoe and they will hit or stand in order to let the dealer upgrade his hand and not bust, wich increases the house edge enough to destroy me as I was a constant winner till then and maybe a threat for them. I've also seen and think that they are shuffling the cards in a speciffic way because there was 7s and 4s in the same place, 8s and 3s in the same place, giving the dealer more chances to get 21 wich even happend. I've not lost all that $1K in these 30 hands but I was left with $100+ and I've played with l'Abouchere series from the start and reached 200+ and got back to 100, then 250, then 100, then 0 because even in these sessions I had medium winrates well under 45%, some even under 40 whatever strategy I've tried to apply, like they was forcing me to lose, that's what I felt.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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Sacke86
November 25th, 2020 at 3:34:03 AM permalink
Quote: Sacke86

...as I was a constant winner till then and maybe a threat for them. ...whatever strategy I've tried to apply, like they was forcing me to lose, that's what I felt.

You didn't think anything was unusual when you were winning? Did you think that you had an edge? Blackjack isn't a game where you win-lose, win, lose, win lose. Sometimes you win more and sometimes the house does. But you will remember the bad extremes. Simple as that.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
Sacke86
Sacke86
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November 25th, 2020 at 4:08:59 AM permalink
I had good winning series, can't lie about this, but percenteges never got this high in my favour, just about 55% maximum and I was winning more than if I would won with a static bet just because this betting strategy works this way and this strategy works even with 45% winrate if you don't have extremely high loosing series or winrates extremely low like 20% in 30 hands. I assumed before going into this that I can't get a 20% winrate from a 30 hands series (wich is not that much like 100+ but not a few like 10 either) if the game has let's say a maximum of 1% house edge. It's like flipping a f**** coin and you get 6 heads and 24 tails and I don't even played millions of hands to hit such a loosing session like this, wich should be extremely rare even for millions of hands played (My opinion), but when it happens this fast you are REALLY CURSED or the game is for sure rigged because I've played not even 3000 hands I think.
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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Sacke86WTflush
November 25th, 2020 at 4:53:55 AM permalink
So roundish numbers you have a 42% chance of winning a BJ hand. Rest is losses and pushes. You played 30 hands so can expect to win 12.6 hands. Standard deviation of 1.15 times sqrt(30) gives you 6.3 hands standard deviation. So you’re winning six hands Means you were all of about 1.05 standard deviations off.

Next.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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Sacke86WTflush
November 25th, 2020 at 5:11:20 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

So roundish numbers you have a 42% chance of winning a BJ hand. Rest is losses and pushes. You played 30 hands so can expect to win 12.6 hands. Standard deviation of 1.15 times sqrt(30) gives you 6.3 hands standard deviation. So you’re winning six hands Means you were all of about 1.05 standard deviations off.

Next.

Thanks. I.e. not even mildly unusual.
OP has played about 3000 hands. He can expect to see far FAR more notable events.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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November 25th, 2020 at 5:17:57 AM permalink
I just played 350 hands in 2 hours on a demo BJ game and broke even. Can't expect ANY 5's for a 16.
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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November 25th, 2020 at 7:45:49 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

So roundish numbers you have a 42% chance of winning a BJ hand. Rest is losses and pushes. You played 30 hands so can expect to win 12.6 hands. Standard deviation of 1.15 times sqrt(30) gives you 6.3 hands standard deviation. So you’re winning six hands Means you were all of about 1.05 standard deviations off.

Next.


Would do a lot better with Bac
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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Sacke86
November 25th, 2020 at 8:19:59 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

You were unlucky. That's all. If any other outcome had occurred, you wouldn't have given it a second thought.
What on earth would bots at the table have changed?
I've played a lot of those evolution online live dealer games and never suspected foul play.
Someone will be along to estimate the odds, shortly. Are you SURE you had no splits or doubles? If you did, how are you counting them?



I want to correct you. You were (MOST LIKELY) unlucky. It is an online casino. He (possibly) could have been scammed. But of course, the data he provided happens so frequently as to not warrant any further discussion.

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