I have come to the conclusion that gamblers are notorious liars
the most outrageous liars are non APs who claim to win in the long run
their bogus methods are always the same; they involve one or more of these bogus methods that they claim can lead to long term winnings:
betting based on patterns; betting based on streaks; using stop losses or stop wins; betting based on intuition; some variation of the martingale
but non APs are not the only liars in the gambling world
many Aps are also liars
but why would an AP lie about his gambling results?
because it's not enough to win in the AP world
status and respect goes to those who have not just won; but have won 𝐁𝐈𝐆
so, my conclusion is this:
when it comes to winning - at least with the size of the wins - you can't trust anything you read on gambling boards as being reliable
as the saying goes:
𝐜𝐚𝐯𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐞𝐦𝐩𝐭𝐨𝐫
translation: buyer beware
Quote: sabreI don't believe anything you've said.
LOL. That was good.
I'm not sure sports handicappers should be considered APs, but to the extent that they are, records are records.
Perhaps Rooster would prefer posters try to emulate Gomez Addams from the television show. He did his best every day to lose in the stock market and celebrated when his stocks crashed. When his stocks rose, he was sad.
Actually, if I get the time and learn to load photos, I have a nice storyline regarding my cousin, E.R.Dietz. Rooster will like his Las Vegas report -- E.R. is the Super Dave of gambling.
The question becomes -- if someone reports losing, why is that considered correlative with the truth?
Here's the truth -- I was awake half the night trying to wait on numbers to middle the Army/MTSU game. Numbers hit bottom and bounced, and it's a botch that's likely to cost me some money. Now why is that more likely to be true than, "I got a great numbers range and can middle the Army/MTSU game!" proclamation?
Reminds me of something I heard somewhere which went like this.
Some people think they are Napoleon...and so did Napoleon!
As fantastic as people stories are sometimes they are telling the truth
Quote: redietzwhy is that more likely to be true
motive
People get caught up in raw dollar amounts and decide someone is lying without bother to do any kind of analysis on what that person is actually doing.
It's easy to say "No way you won a million in casinos!". But if you can be bothered to do some basic math you find that number over 10 years comes out to 100k/year. 300 days of working = $333/day. Counting with a $400 max bet you can definitely grind out $100/hr EV. Play short sessions at dozens of casinos and don't look like a complete toolbag and that kind of longevity isn't unbelieveable. Add in promos/mailers. Maybe grab some small must hits here and there, and suddenly that 100k/year doesn't seem implausible at all.
Well, that's kind of a Yogi Berra statement, in a way, because most online posters are anonymous. So, really to get into the zen of this here, suggesting that someone can be both anonymous and notorious suggests that you've fallen for the perspective that what one does online in anonymity somehow has a reality to it. But does it? Anonymous people could be making things up out of whole cloth, even the fact that they gamble at all.
But wait, let's go the paradox route --
Taking the opposite stance, unless you wear a shirt to get togethers that says, "I'm DarkOz," or you're using your real name online, isn't everybody who is anonymous online a "notorious liar" in that they are sealing off 95% of their reality from everybody else. You can't verify anything about them. Why would anybody be anonymous unless they weren't telling the truth?
Deep thoughts. LOL. Meanwhile, I have to eat a donut and try to clean up this Army/MTSU mess. Welcome to the start of the 2020 college football really messed up season.
I know of several people who have quit their 6-figure jobs to pursue AP. And several others who say they make south of $50k.
I’m not asking anyone to reveal how much they make. I guess I am wondering if most AP’s are squeaking by in the $30k-$50k range or if $100k+ is more common than I am thinking.
Quote: gamerfreak
I’m not asking anyone to reveal how much they make. I guess I am wondering if most AP’s are squeaking by in the $30k-$50k range or if $100k+ is more common than I am thinking.
I have never had a problem sharing what my average AP income is. I have taken flack for it but just trying to show what fulltime low/mid level, grinder type, card counter AP can make.
I have a full 10 years results in Vegas now (2010-2019) having relocated in late 2009, so 10 years is a good number to look at averages.
Annual average blackjack EV: $74,379.
Annual average BJ winnings: $78,825
Now we all know how averages work. I have had a high year of $131k and a low year of 27k, all playing the same stakes.
In addition, I have averaged 17 grand on non-BJ AP stuff over the 10 years (mostly the elementary VP mailer game). Unfortunately for me the peak for this was when my partner was alive. I am now doing much less of this and this amount is dwindling.
Quote: lilredrooster
𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐲 Aps
the AP world:
status and respect goes to those who have not just won; but have won 𝐁𝐈𝐆
the responses were amusing and insightful
please note that I used the word 𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐲; not the word all
and the other part that I quoted here is 𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐨𝐛𝐯𝐢𝐨𝐮𝐬𝐥𝐲 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 (to me anyway)
1.) is the person playing with an advantage? So many of these people claim six or seven figure wins over many years playing -EV games and using things like progressive wagering, stop limits, and god forbid "special plays" to overcome that negative expectation, which of course is nonsense. I mean you might as well add in lucky rabbits feet and special magic potions .
Admittedly, I get upset with these type of claims. I mean you have to at least clear the hurdle of mathematics. You have to be doing something that makes your play a long-term winner, if you are claiming years of winning. (as opposed to a one-time big jackpot type win)
2.) second things is obviously stakes played. That has to sync up with your advantage to be ball park of the results you are claiming. It annoys me when someone known for playing small stakes and low limits, all of the sudden has claims of wins that don't add up. Sometimes when you do the math, they will have to put in 2-3 hundred hours a week to achieve what they are claiming. lol
Quote: kewljI get upset with these type of claims.
Why?
This is heading into dangerous territory. It was an amusing and mischievous thread, but the trap is obvious.Quote: kewljJust for the fun of it lilredrooster, can we branch off as to what is the biggest and most extravagant lie you have seen? We have all seen posters posting piles of money, chips, jewelry in an effort to back up their claims of winnings. But for me, recent events where a guy went to an RV showroom and posed inside an RV, claiming it was his own, as proof that he won what he claims to have won (and bought an RV with winnings) has to far and away "take the cake".
I really don't want to see, or impose any suspensions in this thread, so I'll throw this out there.......
To bring quotations from other forums and then declare them as lies, would be a clear breach of Wizard's ruling that he doesn't want to start or bring to the forum, squabbles from elsewhere.
Then we have rule 12 which defines "This includes starting a thread only the for purpose of attacking another member." as trolling. It's yet to be established why this thread was started.
And, then there's the opinion that to accuse a member of lying would constitute a clear personal insult, whether there is strong evidence or not.
I've said before that IMHO, "memberX is a liar" or "Post XXX is a lie" will probably constitute personal insults. " I don't believe memberx or postxxx" would not be an insult.
UserId's here and on other forums are just that: Labels for characters who may or may not bear any similarity to anyone living or dead. Where members have known real names, they might reasonably be treated as real people, but their assertions might still be works of fiction and that's not against the rules.
Quote: kewljposting piles of money, chips, jewelry in an effort to back up their claims of winnings.
But just in my situation, because I am not aware of too many others (if any others) who have posted piles of money, chips, or jewelry, at WOV (have any? I haven't seen any such pics anywhere) these had nothing to do with any effort to back up claims of winning. I posted actual videos of win/loss statements to prove winning.
When I posted a picture of a piece of jewelry, it was to show how I had been banging the Baccarat cards on the table so hard every time I won a big hand that the clasp on the 18K gold bracelet came loose. And I posted a picture of a platinum identical bracelet, with its clasp not bent, to show the difference. And then the fine timepieces - This is the internet and we're all anonymous here (or at least I am) so there is some relative safety in discussing certain things. Not the same as in person. But even on the internet I somehow got into discussing watches and such after I plopped down my watch to cover up my name on a tournament ticket when I was taking a pic of the ticket to post it later on a forum as part of a trip report. That was the first watch picture I posted at WOV. That led eventually to posting whatever watch I had on next to my stack of chips more or less to prove that yes, these are my chips. The watch thing somewhat built on itself. It wasn't intended as "hey look at my watch" or that owning a gang of expensive watches backed up winning.
Or for example when KewlJ starts posting about how the casinos might be cheating. As I recall, ZenKing used to do the same? In the years I have played, I have come across more than a few who claim that the casinos cheat. One was actually a guy who claimed to be a professional blackjack card counter (who played at the same table as I on that day - and LOST, while I kept winning). In my book, if you get to the point of having to claim that casinos are cheating, you are not a professional anything, let alone professional blackjack player. But again, that is what I take from such posts and maybe I'm misreading in order to make a point. Just like some others here.
Quote: jjjooogggAfter 1,000 hours of total play, I can't imagine everyone coming out ahead every year. There has to be bad years. No one can live off blackjack unless they have a huge bankroll that they never touch. I asked everyone if they had a bad year. Everyone said no.
Well you didn't ask me, because I have talked about my bad year 27k winnings vs 85k expectation (EV) many times on this and other forums.
I know several players that have experiences a losing year. That is more likely for a player who plays less. maybe higher stakes but fewer hours, than for a grinder type player, putting in the hours as I have always been.
For the record, this extraordinary year, with months of casinos closed and playing less now that they are open, coupled with a recent very bad run, and I am starting to wonder if this might not be that losing year for me. I am still in the black, but not by much at the moment.
Quote: MDawgposted piles of money, chips, or jewelry
I believe the implication is that such postings are characteristic of an extravagant lie.
Quote: kewljWell you didn't ask me, because I have talked about my bad year 27k winnings vs 85k expectation (EV) many times on this and other forums.
I know several players that have experiences a losing year. That is more likely for a player who plays less. maybe higher stakes but fewer hours, than for a grinder type player, putting in the hours as I have always been.
For the record, this extraordinary year, with months of casinos closed and playing less now that they are open, coupled with a recent very bad run, and I am starting to wonder if this might not be that losing year for me. I am still in the black, but not by much at the moment.
I meant a losing year. My variance is wild. But head on an Slight upward slope. I can see myself crossing the break even point again. I am thinking about quitting. And playing occasionally for the memories. Ppl have called this a “hobby” for a reason. Unless you are on dark oz’s level.
Extravagant claim?Quote: coachbellyI believe the implication is that such postings are characteristic of an extravagant lie.
IMHO, KewlJ is on thin ice with his strong implications that certain easily identified members are lying. Fair enough that he finds such claims unbelievable.
Maybe you can win in the long run by staying at the poker table and your “system” is just being a superior player.
Maybe, via a “system” of working/off setting with a friend you come out ahead by getting free play, other goodies, and comps, etc. (aka comp whoring).
Quote: lilredroosterI have participated in various gambling message boards for several years
I have come to the conclusion that gamblers are notorious liars
the most outrageous liars are non APs who claim to win in the long run
their bogus methods are always the same; they involve one or more of these bogus methods that they claim can lead to long term winnings:
betting based on patterns; betting based on streaks; using stop losses or stop wins; betting based on intuition; some variation of the martingale
but non APs are not the only liars in the gambling world
many Aps are also liars
but why would an AP lie about his gambling results?
because it's not enough to win in the AP world
status and respect goes to those who have not just won; but have won 𝐁𝐈𝐆
so, my conclusion is this:
when it comes to winning - at least with the size of the wins - you can't trust anything you read on gambling boards as being reliable
as the saying goes:
𝐜𝐚𝐯𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐞𝐦𝐩𝐭𝐨𝐫
translation: buyer beware
Speaking for myself, I couldn’t give a hoot about my “status”, or how I look to anyone else. Also, “buyer beware” implies that people here have systems that they’re trying to sell. The last time I looked that’s grounds for suspension.
Quote: OnceDear
IMHO, KewlJ is on thin ice with his strong implications that certain easily identified members are lying. Fair enough that he finds such claims unbelievable.
The person is NOT a member of this forum, so I don't see how suggesting someone not a member of this forum is lying is an issue. If I remember correctly, Mike has a rule that non members are not afforded the usual protections.
Second, I used no names. It isn't my fault that this incident was so over the top that is is widely known throughout the gambling community as to who it is.
Furthermore, it was/is already an approved topic of discussion, started by Wizard himself.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/video-poker/34633-rob-singer-discuss/18/#post770666
Quote: OnceDearExtravagant claim?
His post referenced identifying extravagant lies.
The implication was that certain postings made to back up claims, specifically "piles of money, chips, jewelry" are characteristic of an extravagant lie.
Quote: kewljThe person is NOT a member of this forum
OnceDear referenced "members"...plural.
Suppose that an AP player single-handedly discovered a brand new play. It's a good play, one that could pay all the bills for the month with a little extra left over. But it's fragile. Any whiff of it and the casinos could (and would) easily shut it down. Would not this AP player lie point blank to anyone (fellow colleagues, online forum friends etc) asking him if he knew of any new plays going around?
Quote: GialmereI dunno. While admittedly the tales APrs tell online tend to be on the tall side, would it not be just as likely they are lying the other way?
Suppose that an AP player single-handedly discovered a brand new play. It's a good play, one that could pay all the bills for the month with a little extra left over. But it's fragile. Any whiff of it and the casinos could (and would) easily shut it down. Would not this AP player lie point blank to anyone (fellow colleagues, online forum friends etc) asking him if he knew of any new plays going around?
Maybe that exists. I wouldnt know personally. There is no way around variance
Ive had several huge wins. Bc when you are winning on a positive count. You aint gonna leave bc you have to cover the losses. When you are losing on a positive count. You cant just keep putting money down bc they notice that more than Big wins. Its abnormal behavior to bet big On a losing streak. Not when your winning. I recall when other tables watching bc i wanted to finish the shoe. One was video taping me and the dealers let him
But No one claiming they had a losing year is hard to believe.
I just proved I am a liar. Ask Axel which is a lie.....
I think gamblers are no more or less likely to lie than others. It is just that we have knowledge to be able to flush them out.
Quote: jjjooogggNo one can live off blackjack unless they have a huge bankroll that they never touch and commit to X number of years of play.
What do you consider a huge bankroll? I believe kewlj is making a modest living off of blackjack and I don't get the impression that his bankroll is huge. I don't see why a pro can't make 80% of his bankroll each year assuming he is sizing his bets properly.
Quote: Lovecomps(aka comp whoring).
When I first started I also called it comp whoring and would ask fellow people I saw doing similar things if they enjoyed being a comp whore.
Until I ran into my first female AP and mid-question realized calling her a whore of any type probably wasn't a good idea.
So I called it comp hustling from that point on
Quote: SOOPOO
I think gamblers are no more or less likely to lie than others.
I disagree.
I think its much more likely that a non AP will state that he has won consistently for many years with some bogus method
and an AP will say he averages 250K per year when he actually averages 70K per year
than it is likely for a CPA to claim he makes 400K per year when he actually makes 150K per year
Quote: SOOPOO
I think gamblers are no more or less likely to lie than others. It is just that we have knowledge to be able to flush them out.
I disagree, when it comes to admitting losses I think most gamblers lie. No one wants others to know they are a loser.
When someone tells me they broke even gambling I generally assume it is a lie. Most people lose and some win but from people I talk to more of them will say they broke even as opposed to losing.
Quote: DRichI disagree, when it comes to admitting losses I think most gamblers lie. No one wants others to know they are a loser.
When someone tells me they broke even gambling I generally assume it is a lie. Most people lose and some win but from people I talk to more of them will say they broke even as opposed to losing.
You guys are silly. If I ask a single non gambler, say 30, how many girls he has slept with, you think he won't exaggerate, i.e., LIE! If I ask a job applicant, non-gambler, if has the experience needed for the job, that I can't verify, he will be truthful? If I ask YOU, in front of your wife, should she try to lose a few pounds, is the truth coming out, gambler or not? I won't even get into political questions. You guys just focus on gamblers lying.... because you are gamblers familiar with gamblers!
Quote: DRichWhat do you consider a huge bankroll? I believe kewlj is making a modest living off of blackjack and I don't get the impression that his bankroll is huge. I don't see why a pro can't make 80% of his bankroll each year assuming he is sizing his bets properly.
I would have said 100x top bet. But when you factor in losing streaks of top bets at indian casinos. Id say 200x top bet to be safe and keep moral up when you lose half Your bankroll. Ive seen a dive bigger than half bc sometimes i am forced to play a higher limit table.
Quote: jjjooogggI would have said 100x top bet. But when you factor in losing streaks of top bets at indian casinos. Id say 200x top bet to be safe and keep moral up when you come close to losing your bankroll
I don't think 200x largest bet is a huge bankroll. A $300 max bet means you would need a $60,000 bankroll. That doesn't seem very big to me.
Quote: DRichI don't think 200x largest bet is a huge bankroll. A $300 max bet means you would need a $60,000 bankroll. That doesn't seem very big to me.
Most everyday people Dont realize that is how much you need. But what if the only table available is 100 min and you have a losing streak. Now your max bet is effectively 800 at six deck.
I recall a boat casino documentary. The boat almost had a losing day. With all the bets placed with a house edge. The volatility was significant.
Quote: darkozWhen I first started I also called it comp whoring and would ask fellow people I saw doing similar things if they enjoyed being a comp whore.
Until I ran into my first female AP and mid-question realized calling her a whore of any type probably wasn't a good idea.
So I called it comp hustling from that point on
Opposie:-)
Quote: LovecompsOpposie:-)
I met Someone who literally had a black book of #’s. I answered the phone. She said shed be in town waiting for his call. Ppl called him a male whore.
Quote: SOOPOOYou guys are silly. If I ask a job applicant, non-gambler, if has the experience needed for the job, that I can't verify, he will be truthful?
no, we're not silly
a job applicant lying or exaggerating his resume to get a job is not the same as lying to impress an acquaintance just for the sake of impressing
if one of my neighbors is managing a store that is failing
and another neighbor is an AP who is flaming out on a horrible losing streak -
if I ask them both how's business, the manager of the store is much more likely to tell me the store is going down then the AP is going to tell me that he is flaming out
D Rich is correct
Quote: ChumpChangeIf I have a $10K BR, and buy-in for $500 sessions, if I lose a session, I could just keep betting a purple chip until I win that $500 back, then go back to my regular $500 session betting.
I like tacos
Quote: jjjooogggMost everyday people Dont realize that is how much you need. But what if the only table available is 100 min and you have a losing streak. Now your max bet is effectively 800 at six deck.
If it is $100 minimum you shouldn't be playing with a $60k bankroll. Find a better game.
But still, saying that $60K isn't enough to play a $100. minimum table is akin to saying that you must be a life blood do or die gambler willing to go a million deep just to play a $100. table in order to win. That's excessive, and the risk/reward ratio would be correspondingly absurd.
It serves no good purpose to the player and can really only be detrimental to expound on his “status” as an AP player.
There’s only one logical conclusion. Your ego to be heard or known overrides your common sense to go along and alleviate the casinos of their doubloons.
In a general sense, my guess is this is a quiet existence. Billy Walters excused....as his ego, in the end, seems to have gotten the best of him.
Quote: MDawgTell that to the droves of players who show up at the black chip table with $600. to $1000.
But still, saying that $60K isn't enough to play a $100. minimum table is akin to saying that you must be a life blood do or die gambler willing to go a million deep just to play a $100. table in order to win. That's excessive, and the risk/reward ratio would be correspondingly absurd.
It isn't a big enough bankroll for a professional card counter to play $100 minimum.
I will play a $100 min table even if I only have $1000 on me. If i was a professional and wanted to play a spread of $100 to $500 I would want a minimum of a $100k bankroll.
Quote: MDawgProfessional card counter or not you seem to be saying that you need to be willing and able to go a million deep in losses at this $100. table. That being able to go sixty K deep in losses is inadequate.
I don't know where you get the million from, but $60k is definitely inadequate for a professional.