protosapien
• Posts: 14
Joined: Nov 19, 2019
November 26th, 2019 at 7:55:42 AM permalink
Ok I'm back again with some noob questions.

Strategy is Start \$1, Lose bet \$2, Lose bet \$3, win bet \$2, Lose bet \$3, Lose bet \$4, win bet \$3. (+1 on loss, -1 on win)

Strategy is structured to cover highest loss plus 1 unit, so when you have wins=losses, you will be +1 from each win.

I want to know the optimal stop loss at any given time, assuming a base unit of 1% bankroll. Base unit will not change for the duration of the session.

This is not easy for me to determine, and I’ll explain why. I will use a difference of + 10 losses over wins as an example.

Start -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 -10 = -55

10 wins 20 losses = +\$10 from wins (10 losses covered) -\$55 = -\$45
100 wins 110 losses = +\$100 from wins (100 losses covered) - \$55= \$45
1000 wins 1010 losses = +\$1000 from wins (1000 losses covered) - \$55= \$945

As you can see if I set a standard stop loss of +10 losses over wins it will not be equally ideal at a random given point of the session.

Assume a game of true 50/50. (Yes, I am aware casinos do not offer these odds.)

If the session runs indefinitely I'm aware the optimal stop loss is never because eventually wins = losses, hoping someone can think about this a different way and maybe compare a few scenarios where you might be hoping to achieve a static outcome.

The goal of the optimal stoploss is to prevent a deficit such as -50 losses over wins during an extended session, which would be difficult to sustain if the base unit is 1% of bankroll.
Last edited by: protosapien on Nov 26, 2019
billryan
• Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
Thanked by
November 26th, 2019 at 8:52:28 AM permalink
No casino game is 50-50
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
protosapien
• Posts: 14
Joined: Nov 19, 2019
November 26th, 2019 at 8:56:47 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

No casino game is 50-50

I have a means of betting 50/50, and it is not in a casino.
es330td
• Posts: 151
Joined: Mar 19, 2019
November 26th, 2019 at 8:56:49 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

No casino game is 50-50

War is, if it is still offered. The side bets had casino advantage but War was even money pay with no house advantage.
rsactuary
• Posts: 2315
Joined: Sep 6, 2014
November 26th, 2019 at 9:36:18 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

No casino game is 50-50

Pai Gow Poker is. That's why they charge a commission.
es330td
• Posts: 151
Joined: Mar 19, 2019
November 26th, 2019 at 10:14:15 AM permalink
Quote: rsactuary

Pai Gow Poker is. That's why they charge a commission.

I don’t think it is 50-50. I think it actually favors the bank, hence the commission. If it was 50-50 they’d charge a commission on both sides.
AxelWolf
• Posts: 22296
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
November 26th, 2019 at 10:32:31 AM permalink
Quote: es330td

War is, if it is still offered. The side bets had casino advantage but War was even money pay with no house advantage.

Where is that at? As far as I know it's even money until you have to go to war with the dealer(a tied hand) at that point you have to forfeit half your bet or put up double your bet to continue. If you win the war your original but will only push but they hey you on the extra bet. There may be different versions I suppose. If there's there's truly a version where you don't have to play a side bet but get a true 50/50 please let me know where because hopefully they would rate your play.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
es330td
• Posts: 151
Joined: Mar 19, 2019
November 26th, 2019 at 11:07:43 AM permalink
The last time I saw it at casino was over 15 years ago at a casino I have not been back to in 15 years. I don’t even know if they still offer it but at the time it was truly even money. The pit boss told me they were offering it as a “less intimidating way“ to get the slot machine player to try something else.
ThatDonGuy
• Posts: 6471
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
November 26th, 2019 at 6:55:26 PM permalink
Quote: protosapien

If the session runs indefinitely I'm aware the optimal stop loss is never because eventually wins = losses

...except for the small detail that you have a finite bankroll. "Eventually," you will have a loss run big enough to lose the whole thing.

Time for another one of my "how deep in the hole can you get with a 50/50 D'Alembert?" simulations...
I just got one that reached total losses of over 800 million before climbing back to zero.

Question: what do you mean by an "optimal" step loss? The more you win, the more wiggle room you have, as you need more and/or larger losses to reach the end of your bankroll.
protosapien
• Posts: 14
Joined: Nov 19, 2019
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November 26th, 2019 at 7:07:50 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Question: what do you mean by an "optimal" step loss? The more you win, the more wiggle room you have, as you need more and/or larger losses to reach the end of your bankroll.

Accounting for an increase/decrease in bankroll over time, at what sizing against the current bankroll would the bet be less ideal to place than restarting the progression?
sabre
• Posts: 1172
Joined: Aug 16, 2010
November 26th, 2019 at 7:36:29 PM permalink
Quote: protosapien

Accounting for an increase/decrease in bankroll over time, at what sizing against the current bankroll would the bet be less ideal to place than restarting the progression?

If every bet has the same expectation of 0, there's nothing ideal. Everything is the same. Restart, don't restart, ionize, delineate, marinate, do whatever you want. There's no optimization. Just do you.
protosapien
• Posts: 14
Joined: Nov 19, 2019
November 26th, 2019 at 7:53:26 PM permalink
Quote: sabre

If every bet has the same expectation of 0, there's nothing ideal. Everything is the same. Restart, don't restart, ionize, delineate, marinate, do whatever you want. There's no optimization. Just do you.

It is more optimal to stop loss at 10 wins 20 losses than it is 1000 wins 1010 losses, because the 55 deficit from losses will be less significant as you progress further into the session.

Therefore, there is optimization.

Thank you though
Last edited by: protosapien on Nov 27, 2019
DogHand
• Posts: 1656
Joined: Sep 24, 2011
November 26th, 2019 at 8:55:56 PM permalink
Quote: rsactuary

Pai Gow Poker is. That's why they charge a commission.

rsactuary,

Even without the commission PGP is not 50/50, because the Banker wins copies. For example, if the Player has a 9-high straight with A-K in front and the Banker has 2 Pair with A-K in front, the hand is a push. However, if you reverse the two hands, then the Banker wins.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand
Mission146
• Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
November 29th, 2019 at 1:25:46 PM permalink
Quote: es330td

War is, if it is still offered. The side bets had casino advantage but War was even money pay with no house advantage.

My understanding is that you have to essentially double your bet to go to war, but can only win the original betting unit. That's where the house edge comes from.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
billryan