The Adventures of MDawg

I do truly feel what OnceDear said and other people on the board here is great advice, you guys that find what is posted so wrong or offensive should just block the thread itself and you won't have to deal with people that do not agree with you or that you find what is posted so far from being the truth.

I must say it is harder and more stressful to be mean and negative then it is to be kind and nice.

Quote: Marcusclark66

I do truly feel what OnceDear said and other people on the board here, you guys that find what is posted so wrong or offensive should just block the thread itself and you won't have to deal with people that do not agree with you or that you find what is posted so far from being the truth.

All due respect Marcusclark66 I am not looking for the security guard answer.

Quote: MDawg

By the way, I was given about five hunny in free play chips for one of my sessions. They were the play once only variety. They lasted two hands - lost about half on the first, won with the other half on the second half. So, they rinsed to 50%. Had no effect to speak of on the end results, during that particular session I ended up tipping out via side bets to the dealers more than I won with these chips. I'm not a grinder, and with an average bet closer to the grand, five hunny in chips is usually not going to do much of anything for me.

There are exceptions. Last trip I had this shoe where I won almost every hand in shoe (minus ties - meaning if I bet a hand and it tied, I don't consider that a win) after I arrived about 15 hands into the shoe, and betting just two hundred a hand I won over ten grand. In that particular instance, even two hundred in freeplay chips would have gone to a lot. Years ago, I took a single hundred dollar bill to almost twenty thousand. But, absent monstrous runs like that, five hunny in freeplay doesn't make much difference to me, other than the nicety of getting something for "nothing."

Here is the shoe from the last trip where I won almost every hand (minus ties) after arriving a little late. I arrived at the beginning of the run on the indicators, especially the "French Fries" on the lower right panel, and the doughnuts on the upper left. Sometimes these indicators mean nothing. Sometimes, as here, they mean everything. What can I say, I knew to follow them here and took no prisoners. But I was having such a good time I forgot to bet. I could have easily emptied the tray on this shoe.



I have had shoes where the indicators run full bore for a period of time, but this one was exceptional, in that the indicators pretty much gave up the hand in advance for so many hands in a row. I was sitting at the end and would get up to look at the indicators after each win, and just follow them. There were two other players at the table who followed me exactly too.

The moment of decision was when bank finally went three, in the middle of the shoe. One of the other players at that point put his chips on bank, thinking the bank would run now. I told him "No, I believe it will now chop for a while I've seen this before." and indeed, that is exactly what happened for a while. So once the indicators faded, I followed my own judgment, but from there a whole NEW set of indicators came true and pointed the shoe's next hand out AGAIN for a good period of time. I lost the 9th hand in that chop, then I went back to chop, won the next 4/5, and as I recall, which is the way I play often, once player went three we followed it for two more on a run, then I just stuck with bank to the end. I actually hit almost every tie I bet on this shoe too, look how easy it was to predict them, both using the house tracking and my own private method (which is not displayed or discussed here). I don't bet tie often, but when I do, I hit it at least at a 25% ratio over all. On this shoe I think I hit every tie I bet, which was just a few.

As well, anyone who thinks that an "average" Baccarat shoe has 85 hands right off the bat knows nothing about the game. Average shoe is in the 70s. It depends on the denomination of the cut card and number of ties and naturals.

When I was done I just left, as did the other player down at the end. That was my one session for the day, and I play only one session a day anyway. As the other player walked past me he turned to me and asked me if I even kept track of how many hands I lost that shoe. He was amazed.

During this trip the other day I won something like 11 hands in a row all the way to the end, after dealer change. And that was not on a run or any sort of real pattern that anyone looking from the outside would have detected, I just somehow...did it. That dealer knows me and remarked that I didn't lose a hand after dealer got there. I told dealer I hadn't even noticed. This is the same dealer who remarked the other day, after I mentioned that I won (at a different table), that "You always win ____."

So if you want to just bleed chips slowly, bet Bank every time. If you want to clean up and win, you'll have to come up with something better, as I have. Which what I describe here is just part of my mastery of the game, and doesn't even take into account the measures I have in place to recoup in case I do lose. MDawg has taken all contingencies into consideration.

MDawg your judgment is great and spot-on. I think so many people are just plain jealous of what you been able to accomplish they desire to be mean and nasty which is draining them what day can be doing on their own.

Yes, unfortunately. But then again, I'd think that if a person were not interested in any of this, he'd just step aside rather than wasting his time commenting.

On the above shoe I literally took 200 to over ten grand, in that this 200 is the only portion of my bankroll I needed for the whole shoe.

Quote: MDawg

.

As well, anyone who thinks that an "average" Baccarat shoe has 85 hands right off the bat knows nothing about the game. Average shoe is in the 70s. It depends on the denomination of the cut card and number of ties and naturals.

.

I asked 2 dealers what the average total hands are and they've been dealing for about 10 years each the game of Baccarat. They said between 76 and 81 hands as the mean average.

Quote: BoSox

OnceDear, I just want to find out if the proper procedure was used by myself in stating my objection? If not what is the proper procedure? Any member who does make an objection do they get an answer-back? I think that they deserve that.

On point of fact, I do not know what the big deal was in my objection anyway. All I was looking for was a review by the administration for a possible change of page for MDawg's adventure. If I am wrong in my thinking please explain the error in my thinking. Thank you.

Water under the bridge now.
My comment at that time was a light hearted reminder that it's not for one forum member to demand a penalty for another member. Yourself and coachbelly seemed to be 'playing lawyers' in your posts and I wanted to make clear that neither of you were judge or jury and that falls to we moderators. For example, in a court, isn't it convention that it's the judge that says 'over-ruled'

Any member who has a serious objection to a post can message wizard or myself in confidence or they can voice concern in the thread and we might see it and act, or not act.

Members making multiple frivolous complaints ( and there are some ) might find it becomes counterproductive, even if individual complaints might have merit.

Here's the other beauty of Baccarat. Win enough at blackjack and they will eventually show you the door. Been there. Win enough at Baccarat and you may end up in the enviable position of being able to negotiate concessions that turn the game on its nose such that even if you do lose, you may wind up ahead. They want the Baccarat winners back because they expect that we will eventually lose. And they're not just hoping for some grind out little house edge loss, but a catastrophic total loss, hence they will sometimes even effectively give up the house edge to lure a Bacc. winner back. But to get to that point one must be playing completely above board as a known player with a solid credit line. Being well liked, tipping out like crazy like you don't care, doesn't hurt either.

Because anyone who follows high limit Baccarat knows that most big players don't mess around - they either win a ton or lose a ton, and often quickly. You don't see too many players like me who leave while up so consistently, without getting greedy.

Is this a pic at the end of the shoe

Entire shoe - yes. Note also how it ends with a tie, which many Baccarat players like to bet the tie on the last hand, and that doesn't mean anything but on this shoe I did bet the tie last hand because - both my indicators and the casino's screamed TIE. I don't recall how much I bet on the tie last hand, but I bet something. I definitely underbet that shoe the whole way. Could have really cleaned up a ten grand win was nothing for a shoe like that.

Quote: Marcusclark66

Axel,

Let me ask, how is it you know everything about gambling, casinos, security, Las Vegas Forum members, posts from several years ago, postings from just the other day, California, Nevada, Texas, Michigan, New York, Florida, virtually everywhere in the United States, cars, food, restaurants, the stock market, jobs, what people make, what people win, what people lose, music, shows, TV, history, virtually damn near everything?

Yet you spend so much time researching what people write on the forums you even count all of the words and all of their posts and average them together to come up with an average word count on people. How is it you know all of this and how is it you even have time to gamble at the casinos with all of your endeavors in great detail on the Forum? And not just this forum, other forums I have run across as well, you're everywhere posting all kinds of stuff as well?

But the biggest question is how do you know all the things you post about people you never met?

let me remind you March 26th, 2021 at 6:39:02 AM. But since you can't resist and restrain yourself I'll field your questions even those you still haven't really answered my questions.

I participate at 2 forums at a time and the 2nd forum is not much time. Someone said that I post on average of about 8 posts a day(?) from going back to the time I started participating. According to you, they are " one-liners" so how much time can that take? We have mobile communication now and I get only get 4- 6 hours of sleep per day so there is more than enough time, and, as I said we have Mobil technology nowadays. Heck, in just the last few weeks, I have been to Florida and then Columbia, where I spent about 8 days in Columbia and then back to Vegas, amazingly enough, I was able to post even from there.

I spend very little time researching anything on the forums, it comes to me as I'm reading posts, and what people say I may go back at times and quote what they have said. Your buddy MD is the king of going back to researching and then reposting them. Of course, he claims to have a photographic memory or something like that(Something else that would be very easy to prove).

I no longer NEED to be in the casinos all day long, I probably don't need to AP at all anymore. I choose to put less time in at the casinos nowadays. One can even take advantage of online casinos and manage to post. When i first came on the forums I was basically playing full-time online so I had lots of time to crank out posts.

When something really good comes up in the casinos, I get super motivated and hit it hard. I'll even stay up 36 hours if I have to(and that's without drugs). As you may or may not know, we have a team as well. Admittedly, With the pandemic, we haven't been doing as much as we were pre-pandemic. Even then, it seems to come in cycles. You might have too much going on, or there may only be a few things going on that you are interested in. Sure, I could be out Vulturing all day, scouting, playing smaller edge things but I'm at the point in my life where I would like to relax more and work less.

Please quote where I have said or indicated that I know everything about gambling or anything like that? I have said more than one time, there are people who are better AP's and know much more than I do when it comes to gambling. For instance, I have much respect and admiration for guys like Eddie Teams going back as far as I can remember, I'm amazed at some of the plays he has been on the knowledge that he has, the connections, and what he has accomplished.

I have stated that there are so many different aspects of AP and no one AP could possibly know all the plays and angles. You are always learning, there are times you don't even know what you are looking for until you happen to find it. You only ever hear about a small fraction of what's actually going on, even less so online.

I have been a full-time AP since the early 1990's so I do know a few things about gambling. 99% of what I do know comes from experience, being involved with, and actully doing it. I dont pretend to know things about stuff I don't(unlike some who make up BS. pretending they know, then go research it online and come back with more BS). I may have my opinion and experience or add what I do know.


Where have I said I know anything about the stock market?
I do believe I said I know very little about the stock market. I haven't traded in years and I don't own any at this time. I started using Amritrade's online platform to buy and sell .com stocks in the late 90's early 2000's. I did ok, even with the bubble bursting, but, I really dont know enough about stocks to think I'm good at picking them or how everything works. I have told my nephew about some stocks I had a hunch on, and he has done very well. I have many other things I'm interested in and I get a little lackadaisical when it comes to many things I could or should be doing.

As to the other things you mentioned such as... music, shows, TV, history, cars, food, restaurants, I don't know how anyone can get to over the age of 30 and not know something about some or even all of those things. If, and, when you catch me claiming to be an expert or saying something out of line on those things, be sure to let me know. I have my own opinions, knowledge, interests and I sometimes post those on the forum. I assumed that's what forums were for? How do I know things(who is full of it) about people I have never meet? It's just a gift, I guess.

edit to add. It was very simple to notice your posts were short with very few words. I just looked at a few on this thread leading up to your comment accusing me of one-liners and guessed an average.

Quote: sabre

So after skipping the first 15 hands you must have played around 70 hands. 10k winner @ $200/hand means you net 50 wins.

Let's assume you won 60 hands then and lost 10 to accomplish this.

1 - BINOMDIST(60,70,.51,TRUE) = 1.80381E-10

Wow, a 5.5 billion to 1 event. Pretty improbable for mere mortals, but I'm sure to you it's just another Tuesday.

Stay hydrated.

ROTFLMAO


This should help anyone legit who may have still been on the fence. I sure can see why some people are ignoring this.

I think I have sufficiently stated my position on this thread and these Mdawg claim. No need to continue to do so. But I will say this:

This latest trip is just more of the same. PRETTY hard to believe any of it....IN MY OPINION.

I do have a question for Wizard and Eliot. Both who have previously issued statement that MDawgs claims are "possible" (I think Eliot putting it at 1 in 600 chance possible and that before this latest every winning day and session trip). Mdawg uses your stating "possible" as a form of credibility. (takes it out of context IMO). So my question to both you gentlemen is having made your statements before this latest round of win-every-session, win-every-day trip, is their any reconsideration on your part about how likely and possible these claims are? And if not, I am wondering how many more win every day/session trips will it take? :/

Quote: Expectedvalue

Where is mdawg.... I’m willing to play at any table stakes he is at and will follow any bet he makes completely

Sure you are.

What does 0+0=?

Quote: MDawg

I don't bet tie often, but when I do, I hit it at least at a 25% ratio over all. On this shoe I think I hit every tie I bet, which was just a few..

I’m not sure if you realize how ludicrous your 25% claim is. Even if you only bet tie 5 times in a day, and you have only played 100 days in your career, you are saying you hit 125 ties when expectation is around 48. I don’t have enough zeros to show he likelihood of that happening.

Why would you make such a ridiculous claim?

During the course of these stays we were in a suite that had a bidet and a large shower stall that had two shower heads including a drenching rain overhead and a couple of perforated vertical pipes to shoot water horizontally.

I had already mentioned all this to maintenance the first time we stayed in that suite but I called up again the second time we were in that room to report that the faucet handles on the bidet were reversed - cold was on the left - and in the shower there was no way to get the temperature below scalding except on the vertical pipe which always sprayed ice cold no matter what position the valve was turned to.

They sent someone up who verified that these issues were present but said that they couldn’t deal with it except at night because they’d have to turn off the water. I went to the gym that morning and while I was gone my wife said someone called and they sent a whole team up who reversed the feed on the bidet and fixed the shower. They must have realized they couldn’t just leave things as they were. She jokes that they should pay us for troubleshooting issues that prior guests seem not to notice, or care enough to report.

I’ve been responsible for similar repairs in suites all over the world where apparently no one prior had bothered to complain. So what kind of people have been staying in these suites burning their arses on the bidet by turning the wrong spigot and having to navigate a cold water stream to make a full-on hot water only shower bearable?


So next time you use the bidet, turn the handle and don't burn your a**, that might just be thanks to MDawg!

Thoughts while sitting poolside waiting for a take-out order....

This resort has lost all the Instagram looking models who were its lifeguards last time we were here. Replaced by some teenagers who could use some gym time. That’s my theory in general to explain the general decline in Las Vegas cocktail waitress hotness - who wants to serve drinks when may just be an Instagram model and collect without leaving home (other than for sponsored vacations).

The other night we were watching The Razor's Edge. My wife initially didn’t like “old” movies when I introduced her to them but now finds these gems on her own. It’s a great movie and captivating to the end, I recommend it. I'll have to read the Maugham book.

While watching I commented on how she looks like Gene Tierney. She laughed and said she was thinking the same. Same nose physiognomy and same actually better figure. Eyes too. I suggested she do her hair in that wavy at the end style

and she agreed - until by the end of the movie as Tierney came clear as a vixen she declared that No, I don’t want to anymore, I don’t like her. I agreed - Tierney played quite the bitch in that film.

MDawg said..... "There are exceptions. Last trip I had this shoe where I won almost every hand in shoe (minus ties) after I arrived about 15 hands into the shoe, and betting just two hundred a hand I won over ten grand."

Quote: sabre

So after skipping the first 15 hands you must have played around 70 hands. 10k winner @ $200/hand means you net 50 wins.

Let's assume you won 60 hands then and lost 10 to accomplish this.

1 - BINOMDIST(60,70,.51,TRUE) = 1.80381E-10

Wow, a 5.5 billion to 1 event. Pretty improbable for mere mortals, but I'm sure to you it's just another Tuesday.

Stay hydrated.

ROTFLMAO


This should help anyone legit who may have still been on the fence. I sure can see why some people are ignoring this.

------------------------------------------
SooPoo you are just now letting this stuff sink in?

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: sabre

So after skipping the first 15 hands you must have played around 70 hands. 10k winner @ $200/hand means you net 50 wins.

Let's assume you won 60 hands then and lost 10 to accomplish this.

1 - BINOMDIST(60,70,.51,TRUE) = 1.80381E-10

Wow, a 5.5 billion to 1 event. Pretty improbable for mere mortals, but I'm sure to you it's just another Tuesday.

Stay hydrated.

ROTFLMAO


This should help anyone legit who may have still been on the fence. I sure can see why some people are ignoring this.

SooPoo you are just now letting this stuff sink in?

MDawg is aware I do not believe his overall baccarat stories. I think I may have been the first to state that in toto they are for all intents and purposes impossible. Can I reasonably argue about any individual session? Of course not. But he made a specific claim about the tie success that I am able to challenge. Someone will tell us if his claim is one a trillion or one in a quadrillion or whatever.

I applaud Sabre for quantifying the 5.5 billion to one against likelihood of the specific claim MDawg made.

And I’ll repeat Axel, whether true or not, his stock claims are not ridiculous. If you have 7 figures that you can tie up his results are certainly possible.

Quote: kewlj

I think I have sufficiently stated my position on this thread and these Mdawg claim. No need to continue to do so. But I will say this:

This latest trip is just more of the same. PRETTY hard to believe any of it....IN MY OPINION.

:/

In my opinion it would be best just to block the thread and do not distract others what you insinuate and assume. Because all you do is drag things down within this thread to others that are involved, motivated and learn from it.

Quote: AxelWolf

MDawg said..... "There are exceptions. Last trip I had this shoe where I won almost every hand in shoe (minus ties) after I arrived about 15 hands into the shoe, and betting just two hundred a hand I won over ten grand."


.............................


This should help anyone legit who may have still been on the fence. I sure can see why some people are ignoring this.

------------------------------------------

In my opinion it would be best just to block the thread and do not distract others what you insinuate and assume. Because all you do is drag things down within this thread to others that are involved, motivated and learn from it.

Quote: Marcusclark66

------------------------------------------
SooPoo you are just now letting this stuff sink in?

In my opinion it would be best just to block the thread and do not distract others what you insinuate and assume. Because all you do is drag things down within this thread to others that are involved, motivated and learn from it.

In other words to quote Jack Nicholson "You can't handle the truth"

Quote: SOOPOO

And I’ll repeat Axel, whether true or not, his stock claims are not ridiculous.

You either believe it all or none of it.

Quote: Marcusclark66

And here I thought you weren't going to respond to my "one-liners" in an effort to keep down my post count. I guess you only use that response/excuse when you're trying to avoid answering a legitimate question.

You can claim this wasn't a one-liner, but neither was the one where you gave that response to as an excuse.

You can always block me, I hear it's fairly simple.

Quote: AxelWolf

And here I thought you weren't going to respond to my "one-liners" in an effort to keep down my post count. I guess you only use that response/excuse when you're trying to avoid answering a legitimate question.

You can claim this wasn't a one-liner, but neither was the one where you gave that response to as an excuse.

You can always block me, I hear it's fairly simple.

And miss you saying things like you tip the Pit Boss $3,000. I wouldn't block this thread or block you, no possible way. And that claim of tipping a Pit Boss is in my opinion totally ridiculous I'm so far out of left field I can't even see where the field would end! Being employed in the casino in industry and having a great deal of insight and knowledge to it from the years I've worked with in it, that claim in my opinion it's totally ridiculous and probably exaggerated by about $2,900 or so.

Have a great day I've got my Dunkin Donuts and I'm on the way to the main floor here in a minute to go see what's going on with the people trying to make their fortune or lose their fortune. LOL!

Quote: OnceDear

My comment at that time was a light hearted reminder

Although my reply was not a reminder, it was light-hearted as well.

Does courtroom convention apply for all postings?

Quote: MDawg

They want the Baccarat winners back because they expect that we will eventually lose. And they're not just hoping for some grind out little house edge loss, but a catastrophic total loss, hence they will sometimes even effectively give up the house edge to lure a Bacc. winner back.

It seems that was the case for Dr Jacobson's big player, who won $10s of millions over a 3 year period.

They didn't show him the door, they kept comping him so that he would return.

But detractors have frequently insisted that another consistent winner would not have been comped...and if he claims that he has, then he's lying about it, and any corroborating evidence provided is fabricated.

Quote: Marcusclark66

And miss you saying things like you tip the Pit Boss $3,000.

It looks like we cannot rely on you to be accurate. People need to take note of that fact when reading your posts or taking anything you say seriously.

NEVER DID I SAY THAT. PLEASE DONT LIE AND MAKE UP STUFF.

IF you have miss read and miss relayed what I said, I suggest you go back and correct yourself, and then apologize. Since you haven't actually missed me saying anything outrageous due to the fact that you seem to be misreading and understanding me and the things I have said while concocting some biased image of me for whatever reason that's clouded your judgment, I suggest you can now safely block me.

Quote: AxelWolf

I would avoid trying to tip a pit boss. I have tipped hosts as much as 3k in cash.

I was wrong in saying Pit Boss, it was Host which I find almost as outrageous! I know some people tip hosts commonly up to $500 and I'm sure there are other people that I'm not aware of in the entire country or world that have tipped hosts greater amounts but generally it's $500 or less and I would say the mean average is between $50 to $300 from what I've been told countless times.

And there is a huge difference and meaning between a lie and what you accused me of and a mistake. If anybody owes anybody an apology you owe me an apology for accusing me of lying. As well I do believe you owe MDawg several apologies as well.

Again I correct myself and it was not Pit Boss it was Host which I find almost as outrageous.

I wish mdawg would address the 1 in 5.5 billion claim. Also the tie claim. I will be in Las Vegas in 8 days and would be willing to post up any amount the mdawg would like in order for me to watch him play.

Quote: kewlj

I do have a question for Wizard and Eliot. Both who have previously issued statement that MDawgs claims are "possible" (I think Eliot putting it at 1 in 600 chance possible and that before this latest every winning day and session trip). Mdawg uses your stating "possible" as a form of credibility. (takes it out of context IMO). So my question to both you gentlemen is having made your statements before this latest round of win-every-session, win-every-day trip, is their any reconsideration on your part about how likely and possible these claims are? And if not, I am wondering how many more win every day/session trips will it take? :/

You need to be more specific of what constitutes a "winning day," a "winning trip," average bet, and the size of the bankroll.

It's my understanding MDawg has moderate winning goals and a half million bankroll to chase them. With that, it's not incredible to go many trips before blowing the half million.

It gets kind of rough when you lose 20 $2K case bets in a row.

Mr wizard, still no mention of sabre claim of 1-5.5 billion? Is these the accurate maths on this type of situation?

Quote: ChumpChange

It gets kind of rough when you lose 20 $2K case bets in a row.

I think that MDawg has a stop-loss limit of like 19K.

Day 11 play

Pulled an 8K marker. First shoe, not so good - I actually got down to -5K and put 2500 on Player. I draw an eight and would you believe it, dealer pulls a freakin'
(Ma, I said freakin')

eight to tie me! Then I figure, in for a penny in for a pound and I put the balance on there - CASE BET - three thousand and draw a five. Dealer hits to four with a three card draw that mandates my pull. I get a face card and that's it! baby boy, Victory! Six card 5 over 4.

Still, I end the first shoe down -2500.

Second shoe I manage to rally some including following a 2/2/2 pattern beautifully, but still end down -700.

I'm actually considering leaving it at that, and just walking, but I go for a third shoe. On this shoe, a seven player run happens almost immediately and I catch 6/7 of it, and then the entire first portion of the shoe is 2:1 Players. I take all that for what it's worth, start to lose a tad as the shoe goes a bit random on me, and color up, walking with 2525 to the good with the marker paid off.

2525
I like the sound of that.

I played two and a quarter shoes. I was doing modest side bets for the dealer, mostly red chips, a few quarters, one fifty, we hit TWO ties actually with dealer getting 5 x 8 on both (YES I DEFINITELY HIT AT LEAST 25% OF THE TIES I WAGERED TODAY), and I hit a couple other ties as well. Dealer probably dropped about one fiddy in tips.

Ties really help me get back up when I'm down, or take me over the top when I'm already up.

The dealer commented on what a good Baccarat player I am, but what does that MEAN? Well, what it means as far as I am concerned is that I walk with money. That's my definition of a good player. Is there any other definition?

Dealer also commented on how many people go against runs and patterns. Not I! said MDawg.

Time for a V stroll.

Note: I am reporting what is happening factually and exactly. Any theoretical comments I am long past bothering with, other than occasionally here and there to set someone straight or to point out errors in data, such as that sorry, an average shoe doesn’t have 85 hands in it. What do I care what some people think is or is not possible when I'm the reality of what is happening daily. I posted enough in the past by way of verified WIN statements, the naysayers may just sit on their hands as far as I am concerned. Too many people with nothing better to do out there who apparently want to find me for nefarious purposes anyway, I’d rather just post what is happening and not even post any real time location identifying pictures ever again.

Quote: Wizard

It's my understanding MDawg has moderate winning goals and a half million bankroll to chase them. With that, it's not incredible to go many trips before blowing the half million.

You accept that MDawg is willing to risk upwards of 500k on any given day to win a very modest amount? I mean THAT sounds like the definition of a progressive wagering system, which he claims he is not playing and we all know, will eventually bust out playing -EV games.

In reading his trip reports, for the last several years (all of which he won), I see him talking about paying off markers in the $8000, $10,000, $12,000 range. I have never seen him talk about having taken a marker of $50k or 100k, let alone several hundred k. So based on what he has written, I don't know where that 500k BR comes from. That is not to say he doesn't have 500k to his name, that is a different discussion, I am not getting into.

In blackjack, I have talked to players saying they have a bankroll of say 50k, and how they are playing to almost zero risk of ruin. But then they hit a negative swing and drop 15-20 grand, and they freak out, and pack it up and quit playing and wonder how they lost playing such a low RoR. But they never really had a 50K bankroll because they were never REALLY willing to put that at risk.

Mdawg may has 500k, but he certainly hasn't mentioned putting anywhere near that amount in play, instead always talking about low 5 figure markers, which would change the whole equation of winning 10k or so almost every day, would it not?

Quote: BoSox

I think that MDawg has a stop-loss limit of like 19K.

Thank you, exactly my point. He claims to be winning nearly 10 grand every day off a bankroll of maybe 20 grand. That seems to be what he repeatedly mentions being willing to put into play by the size of markers described. And that just can't be done, every day like he claims.

There could be a further discussion on "stop limits" but lets not even get into that. :/

Quote: kewlj

Mdawg may has 500k, but he certainly hasn't mentioned putting anywhere near that amount in play, instead always talking about low 5 figure markers, which would change the whole equation of winning 10k or so almost every day, would it not?

Why would he put it all at risk if he is able to get a small win without risking it?

Quote: kewlj

Mdawg may has 500k, but he certainly hasn't mentioned putting anywhere near that amount in play, instead always talking about low 5 figure markers, which would change the whole equation of winning 10k or so almost every day, would it not?

Why would he put it all at risk if he is able to get a small win without risking it?

I did come and say im willing to post any amount at the tables he would like. I think way back in this thread he wanted someone to post 50k. That isn’t a problem I would just like to play and learn how to win like he does.

Quote: DRich

Why would he put it all at risk if he is able to get a small win without risking it?

Your missing the point. It just doesn't work the way it Mdawg describes his gambling adventure. Winning 10k or there-abouts EVERY day, while putting minimal amounts at risk, day after day, trip after trip, year after year.

I guess it always comes back to I object to a guy given this platform of one of the top gambling forums, BASED IN MATHEMATICS, to repeatedly make these claims that defy math. There HAS to be a point that, it is time to show someone such an extraordinary claim.

Instead of his daily "victory" strolls, why can't Mdawg meet with Wizard, allow him to observe his play and put this to rest once and for all. I have extreme confidence that Wizard would be able to spot what Mdawg was doing with in a session or two, and it would be clear that the winning described over the past several years, every session, every day, every trip, just can't be.

Quote: kewlj

Your missing the point. It just doesn't work the way it Mdawg describes his gambling adventure. Winning 10k or there-abouts EVERY day, while putting minimal amounts at risk, day after day, trip after trip, year after year.

I guess it always comes back to I object to a guy given this platform of one of the top gambling forums, BASED IN MATHEMATICS, to repeatedly make these claims that defy math. There HAS to be a point that, it is time to show someone such an extraordinary claim.

It is not defying mathematics. Mathematics says it is possible just very very unlikely.

It is also possible to flip a coin a million times and it comes up heads every single time. Or, even 17 YO's in a row.

Quote: Expectedvalue

I did come and say im willing to post any amount at the tables he would like.

If you are serious, then send him a PM.

It's no longer prudent to discuss such arrangements publicly.

Drich, along those lines, slot machines have promo pages that state maximum payouts for slot directors info. But technically if you get free games and retrifgger after retrifger it’s the it possible to go over that? As relating to this thread, mathematically possible.:

Quote: kewlj

Thank you, exactly my point. He claims to be winning nearly 10 grand every day off a bankroll of maybe 20 grand.

BoSox was being sarcastic. And MDawg made no such claim as you assert above.

It's difficult to have a cogent discussion when flippant comments and allegations are presented as facts.

Quote: DRich

It is not defying mathematics. Mathematics says it is possible just very very unlikely.

It is also possible to flip a coin a million times and it comes up heads every single time. Or, even 17 YO's in a row.

There is a line at the end of the original dumb and dumber movie, where Jim Carrey character says to the girl "what are the chances of us being together?" She replies "1 in a million". And he says "so you are telling me there is a chance".

That is what we are dealing with here. I prefer to deal in reality and the reality is except for a two sided heads coin, no coin flip will land heads a million times in a row, no one saw 17 (claim was actually 18) y.o. in a row, and no one is winning every session, every day, every trip playing a minus expectation game.

Quote: coachbelly

BoSox was being sarcastic. And MDawg made no such claim as you assert above.

It's difficult to have a cogent discussion when flippant comments and allegations are presented as facts.

All the trip reports with detailed daily descriptions are right here in this long running thread. So please show me where Mdawg EVER mentioned markers of more than 15k and putting that kind of money (100's of k) in play.

Quote: kewlj

So please show me where Mdawg EVER mentioned markers of more than 15k and putting that kind of money (100's of k) in play.

OK.

Before I search, what are the parameters? Markers of more than 15K?