The Adventures of MDawg
I only half read your post, but if you are asking how an -EV game and progressive strategies can co-exist, and want a mathematical reason why...
The only way a progressive strategy would work, is if a player had an infinite bankroll, with infinite time to play an infinite amount of rolls.
Infinite is impossible.
All casinos have put in place, table minimums and maximums, which stops progressive strategies, such as the Martingale from being effective.
Also, as an extreme example, if you played an infinite number of rolls, while unlikely, it is not at all impossible that you would see a streak of losses during this infinite session, that would wipe out the bankroll of even the richest man on earth.
Short term, sure a progressive strategy will seem to work.
For instance, I play on an online casino with a .10 minimum bet and a $5,000 maximum bet. This is way more favorable to a martingaler than any brick and mortar casino. Sure I could Martingale a $0.10 bet 16 times and would likely make a $0.10 profit before I lose 16 in a row. However, there will come a time, if I play long enough that I do in fact lose 16 in a row and will have a $3,276.80 bet on the table (a total of $6,553.50 already at risk at this point) to win $0.10!
That's math. You can't avoid it!
A lot of players go to the casino a lot. A lot of times they win. Sometimes they lose. Many brag about the wins. Few brag about the losses. If you play long enough, you will on most occasions be down over the long run approximately the house edge. No system, no method, no startegy will beat this math other than blatant cheating or lying!
Quote: Marcusclark66You know when I first met the Rabbi he had that little flying saucer thing on his head, which I thought it was just a cover up for his bald spot but found out it's a religious thing.
A complaint was filed about this remark.
This runs against forum rules against religious statements and hate speech. Granted, it could be much worse, but this kind of speech is not what the forum is intended for. If you want to stereotype any religion, please do it over at DT.
Consider this a firm warning not to do it again.
Quote: WellbushMy reference to MD, was simply to say that he welcomes my input on this thread, and told me so 'before' he was suspended. so the fact he is suspended does not mean i should stop posting here. that's all i meant.
I don’t think you know what fluffy means.
I would submit to the mods that Wellbush posts about his system and way of looking at math are way off topic for this thread and should be moved to a thread that fits that topic.
One has to admire his gumption. Most people who build castles in the sand give up after being confronted with the reality of the situation. Not this guy. He is bound and determined to prove nature wrong.
Part Bilbo Baggins, part Nicky Tesla, with a slice of vegemite thrown in.
Please don't send him to the cornfield.
Pretty long odds on that one ...
;o)
Quote: MrVSo it's a coincidence that there are two different Marcus Clark's working in security for casinos?
Pretty long odds on that one ...
I don't know. It's certainly possible.
More evidence is needed.
Let's just say coincidental evidence is circumstantial at best
Clarks in the USofA.
Not as long as 18 yo's in a row perhaps, but pretty astronomical, I suspect.
Quote: billryanClark is a very popular last name. Een with a fairly uncommon first name, I'd be surprised if there isn't a couple hundred Marcus
Clarks in the USofA.
Without the slightest challenge by most.
Marcus Clark
Real Person; AKA MarcusClark66
Professional Casino Security Expert
Certified Company Firearms Instructor
Tic-Tac-Toe Expert & Mastering Chess
Honorary & Official #1 Fan of the MDawg Adventures Club
Quote: Marcusclark66Without the slightest challenge by most.
Marcus Clark
Real Person; AKA MarcusClark66
Professional Casino Security Expert
Certified Company Firearms Instructor
Tic-Tac-Toe Expert & Mastering Chess
Honorary & Official #1 Fan of the MDawg Adventures Club
Just like you have no mention to the challenge I’ve put out there. Clearly you aren’t accepting because you can’t win.
Official member of the Marcus Clark is not a real person fan club
Quote: WizardA complaint was filed about this remark.
This runs against forum rules against religious statements and hate speech. Granted, it could be much worse, but this kind of speech is not what the forum is intended for. If you want to stereotype any religion, please do it over at DT.
Consider this a firm warning not to do it again.
Duly noted.
And it was not meant to be derogatory, I just did not know the proper name was a yarmulke.
Sorry!
Marcus Clark
Real Person; AKA MarcusClark66
Professional Casino Security Expert
Certified Company Firearms Instructor
Tic-Tac-Toe Expert & Mastering Chess
Honorary & Official #1 Fan of the MDawg Adventures Club
Quote: Marcusclark66Duly noted.
And it was not meant to be derogatory, I just did not know the proper name was a yarmulke.
I don't think calling it by the wrong name was what was offensive about the post.
Quote: billryanClark is a very popular last name. Een with a fairly uncommon first name, I'd be surprised if there isn't a couple hundred Marcus
Clarks in the USofA.
25th most popular surname in the USA with over 600,000 named just that.
Marcus Clark
Real Person; AKA MarcusClark66
Professional Casino Security Expert
Certified Company Firearms Instructor
Tic-Tac-Toe Expert & Mastering Chess
Honorary & Official #1 Fan of the MDawg Adventures Club
thanks mw9. a lot here have too much pride to answer my 'seemingly' ignorant qs. but you've had the generosity to reply. as i thought, it's becoming more obvious to me that the field of gambling have been sitting on a mathematical paradox and not thought to address it properly. i'm happy for mathematicians to give a better attempt than yours, and i'll run through your response with it's flaws, in bite-sized pieces. the reason i'll do it in bite-sized pieces is for clarity. i'm also not highlighting flaws in your response to humiliate. it's just to come to grips with reality and identify what can and cannot be stated as fact.Quote: mwalz9Wellbush...
I only half read your post, but if you are asking how an -EV game and progressive strategies can co-exist, and want a mathematical reason why...
The only way a progressive strategy would work, is if a player had an infinite bankroll, with infinite time to play an infinite amount of rolls.
Infinite is impossible.
so in the first part of your response you talk about progressive strategies as needing infinite this and that. a reasonable argument. this idea is true if the player follows the sequence in the martingale. it 'may' possibly occur in the fibonacci sequence, but that's debatable.
with the martingale, bet sizes double for every losing bet. i've already previously stated that i think this is a highly risky strategy. personally, i wouldn't say it's due to the concept of infinity, but rather the reality of limits to the gamblers bankroll, and casino betting limits.
however, if we're talking about the fibonacci sequence, it's a different ball game. the reason is because the gambler is not doubling his bet size. he is definitely 'increasing' his bet size after each loss, but the bet size increases are not as great as the martingale. therefore, it's quite conceivable that a smart gambler with a serious bankroll, could stay in the game at a casino, even if he experiences long losing streaks.
before posters object, let me expand first. a gambler with a significant bankroll, could stay in the game at a casino by starting with a very small initial bet size. he can start gambling at the lowest bet size tables, and then move to the higher bet size tables whenever he experiences a long losing streak. as long as he continues along the fibonacci sequence, he will come back into profit again.
i play BJ on free software, and i totally disagree that a gambler would need an infinite bankroll, with infinite time. some may argue that free software is not the same as a real b & m casino. i agree, but how different is it? i can tell you that even allowing for say, a difference of 25% from what may be experienced at a real casino, infinite this and that is no where near the reality.
i'll add to this part of the argument further - dealing with the infinity hoax - in my next post. but keeping to the clarity of bite-size pieces of info, is why i'll stop here, for now.
Maybe you can answer this for me as I have read the forums for sometime and never got the answer.
Very frequently posters say, "I didn't take the time to read your posts", or "I only half read your stuff", or something along those lines and so on. Then they come on like gang busters and start their blasting and put downs, etc.
Really, why are they so proud to announce they really don't know what the O.P. said but here is my 2 cents. (????)
Marcus Clark
Real Person; AKA MarcusClark66
Professional Casino Security Expert
Certified Company Firearms Instructor
Tic-Tac-Toe Expert & Mastering Chess
Honorary & Official #1 Fan of the MDawg Adventures Club
Quote: Marcusclark66Wellbush,
Maybe you can answer this for me as I have read the forums for sometime and never got the answer.
Very frequently posters say, "I didn't take the time to read your posts", or "I only half read your stuff", or something along those lines and so on. Then they come on like gang busters and start their blasting and put downs, etc.
Really, why are they so proud to announce they really don't know what the O.P. said but here is my 2 cents. (????)
Marcus Clark
Real Person; AKA MarcusClark66
Professional Casino Security Expert
Certified Company Firearms Instructor
Tic-Tac-Toe Expert & Mastering Chess
Honorary & Official #1 Fan of the MDawg Adventures Club
This reply above wins post of the year, I just can’t mention what category it’s for...... what the heck did I just read???????
Quote: Marcusclark66Wellbush,
Maybe you can answer this for me as I have read the forums for sometime and never got the answer.
Very frequently posters say, "I didn't take the time to read your posts", or "I only half read your stuff", or something along those lines and so on. Then they come on like gang busters and start their blasting and put downs, etc.
Really, why are they so proud to announce they really don't know what the O.P. said but here is my 2 cents. (????)
Marcus Clark
Real Person; AKA MarcusClark66
Professional Casino Security Expert
Certified Company Firearms Instructor
Tic-Tac-Toe Expert & Mastering Chess
Honorary & Official #1 Fan of the MDawg Adventures Club
Can I answer Marcus?
Casino surveillance cameras only record one frame per minute. They are quite ineffectual at recording activities of Casino miscreants. Casinos boast about their security systems but I know better. For years Casino surveillance people have been using a paradox.
1: Casinos cameras help catch criminals
2. Criminals steal from Casinos.
How can both one and two be true. This is a paradox that surveillance cannot explain.
But I can. You see Casino surveillance cameras don't work because they just take a single photo at a time AND it's a low resolution picture grainier than an internet movie streamed through your telephone wires.
Now if I keep posting the above drivel eventually you realize I don't know what I am talking about. There is no need to keep reading, correct?
Quote: Marcusclark66Wellbush,
Maybe you can answer this for me as I have read the forums for sometime and never got the answer.
Very frequently posters say, "I didn't take the time to read your posts", or "I only half read your stuff", or something along those lines and so on. Then they come on like gang busters and start their blasting and put downs, etc.
Really, why are they so proud to announce they really don't know what the O.P. said but here is my 2 cents. (????)
Marcus Clark
Real Person; AKA MarcusClark66
Professional Casino Security Expert
Certified Company Firearms Instructor
Tic-Tac-Toe Expert & Mastering Chess
Honorary & Official #1 Fan of the MDawg Adventures Club
In some online forums, Marcus, and i'm not implying it's here, there are those who leave their mark on this world in secrecy. they are all to keen to attack others with different views, or even similar views! so long as they have the chance to attack in secret, they'll do it. are they scum? they need to consider that q.
there are probably others though, that only half read occasionally, for legitimate purposes.
it's interesting you seem so upset with marcus' relatively harmless post, EV. why?????Quote: ExpectedvalueThis reply above wins post of the year, I just can’t mention what category it’s for...... what the heck did I just read???????
????
?
Quote: darkozCan I answer Marcus?
Casino surveillance cameras only record one frame per minute. They are quite ineffectual at recording activities of Casino miscreants. Casinos boast about their security systems but I know better. For years Casino surveillance people have been using a paradox.
What? I have been in the surveillance rooms of a number of big casinos and that is not correct for the ones I have been in.
Quote: DRichWhat? I have been in the surveillance rooms of a number of big casinos and that is not correct for the ones I have been in.
DRich I was trying to give a ridiculous example of how Wellbush ignoring math sounds. Like ignoring the reality of surveillance systems by saying it doesn't work.
Perhaps my methodology wasn't clear.
Quote: darkozDRich I was trying to give a ridiculous example of how Wellbush ignoring math sounds. Like ignoring the reality of surveillance systems by saying it doesn't work.
Perhaps my methodology wasn't clear.
I admit, I was confused by your post.
Quote: DRichWhat? I have been in the surveillance rooms of a number of big casinos and that is not correct for the ones I have been in.
Isn't this a fact-free thread?
Quote: billryanIsn't this a fact-free thread?
Sorry, i will refrain from posting facts.
Quote: billryanIsn't this a fact-free thread?
I don't think they're expressly forbidden. They just aren't frequently used.
Quote: billryanIsn't this a fact-free thread?
MWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quote: billryanIsn't this a fact-free thread?
Quote: DRichSorry, i will refrain from posting facts.
some may regard these kind of posts as trolling and insulting!
Quote: Wellbushsome may regard these kind of posts are trolling and insulting!
Fits right in then.
I don't ignore math. i agree with it and only question what i think is questionable. again, do you know what you're talking about, DOz?Quote: darkozDRich I was trying to give a ridiculous example of how Wellbush ignoring math sounds. Like ignoring the reality of surveillance systems by saying it doesn't work.
Perhaps my methodology wasn't clear.
Quote: Wellbusha gambler with a significant bankroll, could stay in the game at a casino by starting with a very small initial bet size. he can start gambling at the lowest bet size tables, and then move to the higher bet size tables whenever he experiences a long losing streak. as long as he continues along the fibonacci sequence, he will come back into profit again. i play BJ on free software, and i totally disagree that a gambler would need an infinite bankroll, with infinite time.
Disagree all you want, but the reality is that a fibonacci sequence is just a martingale bogged down in molasses.
There is the same risk of ruin as in a martingale if a very bad bit of variance leads to many losing bets in a row, with the bettor then hitting the house limit.
True, the bettor can get more bets in til the limit is reached, but once it is reached it is game over.
Quote: WellbushI don't ignore math. i agree with it and only question what i think is questionable. again, do you know what you're talking about, DOz?
The math does not add up in this thread
Therefore fiction
I used to come here for facts
All we get now is fiction
Better off reading The Three Body Problem rather then this thread
Remember folks. This thread is in a subforum dedicated to 'the mathematically challenged' Why are the rest of us here?Quote: terapinedThe math does not add up in this thread
Therefore fiction
I used to come here for facts
All we get now is fiction
Better off reading The Three Body Problem rather then this thread
You came here for facts? What, this forum, or this thread? Oh. I guess with all of us bumping this thread, we make forum = thread
Reading this thread is -EV. Replying into it is even more-so
Alas, it is sort of like trying to convince a cannibal not to eat his family; once such crazy thinking takes hold it's nearly impossible to convince them that hey, this really isn't a good idea ...
Some, well ME: I regard most of your posts as trolling and insulting.Quote: Wellbushsome may regard these kind of posts as trolling and insulting!
I'm satisfied to let you post your absurd observations on we naysayers in this thread, where facts and immutable truths are not to be expected.
You insult anyone who respects centuries of greater mathematicians than would ever visit here.
You insult truth and reality. Fortunately they are not members here, but I see your veiled insults to subtly un-named members.
You insult some highly successful winners, some highly intelligent and qualified members when they try to help you.
You try to 'report' others for trolling, presumably with the intent of getting someone, anyone, suspended. To me, that is a definition of trolling.
Quote: OnceDearRemember folks. This thread is in a subforum dedicated to 'the mathematically challenged' Why are the rest of us here?
You came here for facts? What, this forum, or this thread? Oh. I guess with all of us bumping this thread, we make forum = thread
Reading this thread is -EV. Replying into it is even more-so
I'm here for the popcorn. This thread is strangely more entertaining when the originator is absent.
Quote: OnceDearSome, well ME: I regard most of your posts as trolling and insulting.
I'm satisfied to let you post your absurd observations on we naysayers in this thread, where facts and immutable truths are not to be expected.
You insult anyone who respects centuries of greater mathematicians than would ever visit here.
You insult truth and reality. Fortunately they are not members here, but I see your veiled insults to subtly un-named members.
You insult some highly successful winners, some highly intelligent and qualified members when they try to help you.
You try to 'report' others for trolling, presumably with the intent of getting someone, anyone, suspended. To me, that is a definition of trolling.
I'm very confused. Trolling is a punishable offense. This site uses moderators to enforce the rules. One moderator "regards MOST of your (Wellbush) posts as trolling and insulting."
Given the above, can someone explain to me how the poster has not been suspended? It makes no sense.
To answer MarcusClark's question about why people don't read every word of your or Wellbush's posts before responding, I can speak for myself, but I am sure most others agree. After having read literally hundreds of your posts, and virtually never finding anything of value in any of them, why would I rationally expect any subsequent post to even remotely have any value?
Sure.Quote: SOOPOOI'm very confused. Trolling is a punishable offense. This site uses moderators to enforce the rules. One moderator "regards MOST of your (Wellbush) posts as trolling and insulting."
Given the above, can someone explain to me how the poster has not been suspended? It makes no sense.
My regarding of what is or is not trolling is subjective. I've long made it clear that I moderate in moderation and so I err to the side of leniency. Sometimes I'm more lenient than Wizard, E.g. in the interpretation of 'personal insult' and sometimes I'm more harsh, E.g in the interpretation of trolling. This is in keeping with Wizard's policy of not suspending members just because he doesn't agree with their comments. I do note that this is not MY forum.
Wellbush is testing my limits though.
Quote: SOOPOOWe need MDawg back. For all we know he is in Macau crushing Wynn. Or on a baccarat tour of Vegas. Or in that same suite just taking a mere $5-10k a day from his host hotel…
Maybe when you are in town we will go on an MDawg hunt throughout the baccarat rooms of the city.
Quote: DRichMaybe when you are in town we will go on an MDawg hunt throughout the baccarat rooms of the city.
A Whale hunt in the desert.
He's on another forum taking $50k per day... Unchallenged and un-worshipped. Sad!Quote: DRichMaybe when you are in town we will go on an MDawg hunt throughout the baccarat rooms of the city.
Quote: DRichMaybe when you are in town we will go on an MDawg hunt throughout the baccarat rooms of the city.
I am assuming that is a tongue in cheek comment. I will respect his and anyone’s privacy. You can watch me crush a Tiles game for $100…. If I get lucky….
"Anonymous bragging" seems an oxymoron to me. But specifically when it applies to the MDawg poster, we're talking about someone posting hundreds of times for years regarding his alleged experiences. Those posts include everything from specific locations where he allegedly gambled to alleged details of his sessions as they unfolded to specific meals and even the specific rooms where he stayed for how long.
Included were particular suites photographed and posted from particular times. Any casino employee at the properties with those suites, and indeed any baccarat employee at those casinos, should be able to read his posts and with minimal legwork know who he is.
Obviously, if he valued privacy to any great extent, he should not have posted in this fashion.
So my questions: Should there be a presumption of privacy on his part? Should there be a presumption of anonymity? I am reminded of a Captain Renault paraphrase, "I am shocked, shocked, that anyone would want to know who I am."
The entirety of the MDawg posts serves the purpose of "anonymous bragging." He wants people to "know who he is." But he doesn't want a real name attached to the hundreds of posts and dozens of accompanying photos and ongoing diary logs. Is that a reasonable, or even sane, expectation?
I would argue that from a legal perspective, his cumulative behaviors over the previous two years are a recipe for being doxed and identified.
For a parallel example, if a person were to employ various escorts and make elaborate reports of his/her adventures with the escorts, identifying the escorts in question via photos and reporting the where/when of the transactions, should there be an expectation of anonymity in perpetuity?
