The Adventures of MDawg
Quote: Mission146"Why does a pit boss record the average bet?"
And, you're supposed to be the one who can teach me something?
It's becoming more and more obvious Wellbush has most likely never stepped foot inside a casino.
I've seen backseat gamblers but armchair gamblers are the worst.
Those are the ones who will ask why you didn't hit on 19 when the dealer pulls a 2 as his next card
Quote: TomGVery fair point. The results I get for your strategy are house edge (maybe 0.006 depending on rules) times total action times -1. Maybe later I will take the time to calculate total action from your strategy. What results do you get?
I don't get any because it's not my exact strategy, and I haven't learnt how to run statistical simulations on my strategy, yet. I do, however, practise, record and improve on my strategy via free online software. Currently my strategy is producing a profit, not withstanding both winning and losing stretches.
I note the house edge you recorded being 0.006. So that I know how you use your decimal point, how does that figure compare with the house edge for flat betting?
Quote: TomGWellbush, I'll make it easy. Do you think a player can have a positive expected value on casino bets simply by changing their bet sizes based entirely on how previous bets were resolved? If yes, are you capable of explaining further how that happens?
Tom, I don't understand expected value but I may learn it sometime.
I am currently using a negative progression strategy with some seriously good results. The negative progression strategy is a variation on the Fibonacci sequence, similar to that shown to you in the other thread, and that you're now evaluating.
What more do you want to know about it?
I don't think I necessarily need to understand -ve/+ve expected value, to know whether a betting strategy will be a success or not. But I could be wrong! 😁
Quote: Mission146"Why does a pit boss record the average bet?"
And, you're supposed to be the one who can teach me something?
Maybe I can teach you something about producing a reasoned argument, but other than that, I never said I can teach you anything.
Quote: Wellbush
I don't think I necessarily need to understand -ve/+ve expected value, to know whether a betting strategy will be a success or not. But I could be wrong! 😁
Yes, you're wrong.
SMH!!!!!Quote: WellbushI note the house edge you recorded being 0.006. So that I know how you use your decimal point, how does that figure compare with the house edge for flat betting?
The house edge is the house edge for flat betting, for fibonacci betting, for martingale betting, for betting on weekends, for betting on wednesdays. for betting after losing 10 consecutive hands, for betting after losing 5 consecutive hands and going for a pee.
Wellbush. I congratulate you on being the most wrong member on the forum. Your posts here will long be held as case studies in wrongness.Quote: WellbushTom, I don't understand expected value but I may learn it sometime.
I am currently using a negative progression strategy with some seriously good results. The negative progression strategy is a variation on the Fibonacci sequence, similar to that shown to you in the other thread, and that you're now evaluating.
What more do you want to know about it?
I don't think I necessarily need to understand -ve/+ve expected value, to know whether a betting strategy will be a success or not. But I could be wrong! 😁
Valuable input. Keep it up.
10/10 for wrongness. :o)Quote: WellbushMaybe I can teach you something about producing a reasoned argument, but other than that, I never said I can teach you anything.
Quote: OnceDear10/10 for wrongness. :o)
😆good jokes, and who am i to argue with someone holding the suspension stick? therefore, i let only administrators go without reproach 😁
Quote: WellbushI note the house edge you recorded being 0.006. So that I know how you use your decimal point, how does that figure compare with the house edge for flat betting?
The expected value for the player would be 0.006 (or whatever the house edge is) x total number of bets x whatever is being flat bet x -1.
Quote: WellbushI am currently using a negative progression strategy with some seriously good results.
So why devote so much time and so many words to it? Just repeat until you’re rich.
There are idiots on this forum that will argue there are 26 letters in the Alphabet but there may be more. I don't know I could be wrong.
If people will stop keeping their minds closed they will realize the Mesopotamians had more than 26 letters.
Also the Chinese alphabet has thousands of letters.
So it's possible to have more than 26 letters in the alphabet in theory.
Putting this theory into practice, I have managed to count 27 letters in the Alphabet by adding the LL from the Spanish alphabet to get an English alphabet with more than 26 letters.
People who disagree with this thinking are wrong.
But I may be wrong too.
Quote: OnceDearSMH!!!!!
The house edge is the house edge for flat betting, for fibonacci betting, for martingale betting, for betting on weekends, for betting on wednesdays. for betting after losing 10 consecutive hands, for betting after losing 5 consecutive hands and going for a pee.
Tom said he evaluated my strategy and said the house edge was 0.006. How am I supposed to know he was just referring to the normal BJ house edge? Go easy on us lower beings, OD.
Quote: TomGSo why devote so much time and so many words to it? Just repeat until you’re rich.
I do!!!! My fairy tale bank balance currently sits at +$2,165! Pretty good, eh?
Quote: OnceDearSMH!!!!!
The house edge is the house edge for flat betting, for fibonacci betting, for martingale betting, for betting on weekends, for betting on wednesdays. for betting after losing 10 consecutive hands, for betting after losing 5 consecutive hands and going for a pee.
But...what if you place the chips in the betting circle using your non-dominant hand?
Quote: OnceDear10/10 for wrongness. :o)
Yes, well, i'm very cautious before i argue with you, OD. i never know when i've stretched your patience too far.
For the record, i don't espouse gambling for the sake of gambling! True! I don't think I've ever been addicted to anything, except food sometimes. And if people aren't making money gambling, why do it? If people want to have a flutter with a set affordable amount, just for fun, fine. No problem.
If people are not convinced that they have a strategy to beat the casino that they go to, why do it unless it's just for a bit of fun?
I don't write here to encourage gambling! Maybe i haven't included enough cautionary remarks in my posts, about the dangers of gambling. It's also up to WOV if they think posting highlighted cautionary notices every now and then, is warranted.
No, don't gamble unless you know you can make money from it, or do it for a bit of leisurely fun, only.
Quote: Wellbushoh, here he is...Sarbe 😆. i wonder what constructive thing he has to say? 😆
You need to understand expected value in order to quantify the expected return of a betting system.
Quote: sabreYou need to understand expected value in order to quantify the expected return of a betting system.
No, he doesn't.
How dare you suggest that math is relevant to gambling?
It would feel like someone else was doing it. $:o)Quote: Mission146But...what if you place the chips in the betting circle using your non-dominant hand?
Because everyone here has been telling you that your system will face the same house edge as any other system or non-system.Quote: WellbushTom said he evaluated my strategy and said the house edge was 0.006. How am I supposed to know he was just referring to the normal BJ house edge? Go easy on us lower beings, OD.
Quote: OnceDearBecause everyone here has been telling you that your system will face the same house edge as any other system or non-system.
Have they now? Where?
I have a serious q for you now, OD (the above two aren't serious):
If I'm so wrong, and you're so right, how come MD's been winning for a decade, or more?
You need to read backwards through this thread for that. Only very recently has he revealed that he has some secretly acquired extra foresight into what cards are coming soon or next. Whether we believe that or not, it would be an advantage not dissimilar to card counting/shuffle tracking/hole carding.Quote: WellbushHave they now? Where?
I have a serious q for you now, OD (the above two aren't serious):
If I'm so wrong, and you're so right, how come MD's been winning for a decade, or more?
Even the great MDAWG will tell you that it's not a case of systematically varying bet size to some arbitrary progressive. I was pleased when he waded in and told you that himself. As Teliot said, you need 'INFORMATION' if your system is to work.
I'm sorry Soopoo. Mdawg has pretty much embraced having Wellbush's posts in this thread. I saw it as hijacking, but well This is MDawg's Forum threadQuote: SOOPOOI'm asking OnceDear and Wellbush to not post about Wellbush's abjectly pathetic posts in the MDawg thread. Wellbush has a thread already filled with drivel. MDawg at least makes interesting posts.
Quote: OnceDearYou need to read backwards through this thread for that. Only very recently has he revealed that he has some secretly acquired extra foresight into what cards are coming soon or next. Whether we believe that or not, it would be an advantage not dissimilar to card counting/shuffle tracking/hole carding.
Even the great MDAWG will tell you that it's not a case of systematically varying bet size to some arbitrary progressive. I was pleased when he waded in and told you that himself. As Teliot said, you need 'INFORMATION' if your system is to work.
There are two types of foresight, though:
1. having real knowledge via some known seeing ability, and
2. having awareness of the flow of cards (but no seeing ability used).
Do you think he's using 1, 2, or both?
Quote: WellbushThere are two types of foresight, though:
1. having real knowledge via some known seeing ability, and
2. having awareness of the flow of cards (but no seeing ability used).
Do you think he's using 1, 2, or both?
MDawg is clearly using number 2 through the use of astrological signs.
He checks the newspapers astrology prediction which give him foresight.
He also has inner voices telling him what side to pick. One of these voices sits in a wheelchair with a metal helmet and sends these illicit voices to him
It's pretty foolproof and can easily overcome the house edge
One would hope that anyone not wearing a mask is vaccinated....
I am vaccinated, but I continue to wear mine.
This is what these armchair Baccarat players fail to realize. Do you think that player who was up five million one night and down eight million by the next morning, would have been a meaningfully different sum in the hole, if the Bank commission had been lowered to 2.75%?
Oct. 30, 1974: Interesting fight, Ali basically wore Foreman out then knocked him down. I'd never seen it before...and it got me thinking about Muhammad Ali:
Oct. 1, 1975: Now I'd like to watch Ali Frazier 3, the fight Ali described as "the closest I've ever been to dying."
A monster session to end all monster sessions. LITERALLY DID NOT WIN A NICKEL, but...a monster session nonetheless.
I got up about five grand on the first shoe, and really should have walked. I kept playing and one marker at a time, dumped eighty grand. It got to where no matter what I hit to, the other side hit one point better. I draw a seven, other side would draw an eight. I'd hit to eight, other side would hit to nine.
Later, I noticed that a friend of mine whom I consider to be bad luck had been texting me frantically (I could feel the phone vibrating in my pocket, and saw all the messages later), asking for some advice on whether to sell or hold some crypto he had picked up last week, exactly during this period when I couldn't win a hand.
I regrouped, moved to a different table in a different area, and from there...it was win! win! win! After an initial bit of back and forth, I started RAKING in the chips. The pit boss kept saying that I should be up two hundred grand, but...all I did was recoup the entire eighty K, and stop. Along the way, on the final run, I was stacking two to four black chips alongside my bet for the dealer, and I must've tipped out three grand easily. Didn't care though, I made my comeback, and all is well. I got to about +77 and then won the last three grand, and stopped.
Pit boss said my average bet was a solid 5000. I must've earned a Theo loss of at least forty grand this session, maybe fifty.
Later talked to my host and extended for 11 more days - no questions asked. The host emphasized that everything was being cleaned off my bill.
Anyway, I'm here for another day. I'm learning to press harder when I need to and believe me, one of these days I am going to hit them for between a hundred and a hundred and fifty K in one session. Believe it. Yes, I'm getting a little greedy but I am fine tuning what it is I am doing.
+0
Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.
I'm willing to present a side Challenge. If anyone doubts that any one, just any one of the Session reports I present during this trip is not entirely accurate, throw down a red flag! Put up a mere ten grand in cash, let's work out how to verify the Session to your satisfaction using the Wizard as the judge, and winner takes the twenty thousand.
I'll contribute five hundred from my end for the Wizard's time if the Challenger will do the same, so that's a net $19,000. to the winner of this side Challenge.
This Side Challenge remains good for the duration of this particular Vegas trip.
Quote: MDawgDay 47 play
I got up about five grand on the first shoe, and really should have walked. I kept playing and one marker at a time, dumped eighty grand....
Later, I noticed that a friend of mine whom I consider to be bad luck had been texting me frantically (I could feel the phone vibrating in my pocket, and saw all the messages later), asking for some advice on whether to sell or hold some crypto he had picked up last week, exactly during this period when I couldn't win a hand.
... I regrouped, moved to a different table in a different area, and from there...it was win! win! win! After an initial bit of back and forth, I started RAKING in the chips. ... Along the way, on the final run, I was stacking two to four black chips alongside my bet for the dealer, and I must've tipped out three grand easily. Didn't care though, I made my comeback, and all is well. I got to about +77 and then won the last three grand, and stopped.
.... I'm learning to press harder when I need to and believe me, one of these days I am going to hit them for between a hundred and a hundred and fifty K in one session. Believe it. Yes, I'm getting a little greedy but I am fine tuning what it is I am doing.
'Fine tuning what you are doing'.... Did you start that fine tuning before or after losing the 80k? Is the trick, somehow to take 80 paces the wrong way, then take a 80 pace run up to build momentum into a 230k hit and run?
So, let me get this straight: While you were losing the $80k, you didn't wonder if your foresight secret had been stymied by casino processes, but instead you put it down to bad luck. And after walking from that table, you found the evidence that, of course it was bad luck, issued to you by your Jona of a friend..... But having dealt with that, you recognised that you were due to win and needed to press more... You pressed more and you won. Well done.
I guess you would have stopped if your friend had texted again in the latter part of the session? Or if some other bad omen had presented itself, or you would have bet bigger and harder if there had been a good omen, like maybe finding a dollar bill on the floor and handing it to a nearby beggar?
You do realise this latest report makes you sound less like a savvy advantage player* and more like a superstitious 'gambler'. This latter post must be a cover story for your Host that reads your posts here and knows all about you.
*Yes. I know. You never claimed that description.
Quote: MDawgIf the house edge were removed (for example, say, commission on the Bank were reduced to 2.75%), and I placed all the same bets I have placed during the course of this trip, I might have a little more money, but the general numbers would not be shifted.
This is what these armchair Baccarat players fail to realize. Do you think that player who was up five million one night and down eight million by the next morning, would have been a meaningfully different sum in the hole, if the Bank commission had been lowered to 2.75%?
Does anyone understand this? That the house edge has little or nothing to do with why typical Baccarat players win or lose vast sums. (No Baccarat player simply flat bets the bank. Anyone who does that is a JOKE.)
As well does anyone understand that whatever edge I might have (or might not have 😄) would need to be better than simply eliminating the tiny house edge.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, unless you are cheating or doing something like edge sorting, etc...you are playing a house edge game. Period. End of story.
Flat betting or pressing doesn't matter. The house edge is the house edge!
It's great to hear, MD. I hope that your fine tuning increases your performance. You deserve it. Some may cringe when I say to a wealthy person, "you deserve it," but i'm not in the faintest jealous like that. if someone's achieving through their own efforts, then i wish them the maximum results possible. everyone deserves rewards for effort. the more, the better!Quote: MDawg
Anyway, I'm here for another day. I'm learning to press harder when I need to and believe me, one of these days I am going to hit them for between a hundred and a hundred and fifty K in one session. Believe it. Yes, I'm getting a little greedy but I am fine tuning what it is I am doing.
i've been fine tuning my own strategy with great success. there's heaps more i can improve upon, too.
It was a fantastic end to the Ali v Foreman fight in Zambia, I think it was? Everyone thought Foreman would crush Ali, as did Ali's training support group. Furthermore, Ali appeared to be taking a beating through his rope-a-dope tactic. Ali knew better!Quote: MDawg
Oct. 30, 1974: Interesting fight, Ali basically wore Foreman out then knocked him down. I'd never seen it before...and it got me thinking about Muhammad Ali:
Oct. 1, 1975: Now I'd like to watch Ali Frazier 3, the fight Ali described as "the closest I've ever been to dying."
Ali v Frazier in Manila was a killer fight alright, if that's the one you're referring to? I won't comment any further till i know you've seen it.
Ali was definitely a more multi-talented fighter than many of the more recent heavyweight champs. Through a combination of verbal intimidation, fancy footwork, size, reach and speed, he seems to have been able to conquer many worthy opponents, notwithstanding that the power of Ali's punches wasn't always on the same level as his opponents.
Quote: mwalz9Does anyone understand this? That flat betting, positive progression, negative progession, bad luck, good luck, rabbit's foot, four leaf clover, bad luck friend, etc...the house edge is the house edge?
I've said it before and I'll say it again, unless you are cheating or doing something like edge sorting, etc...you are playing a house edge game. Period. End of story.
Flat betting or pressing doesn't matter. The house edge is the house edge!
Um,...i don't think anyone's disputing the existence of the house edge. What they're disputing is whether the house edge predicts whether the house will win against a player with some magic beans.
MD appears to have magic beans that over-ride the house edge, over the short and long term! That is what people are disputing.
But, even for the typical Baccarat player, the house edge makes little or no difference. Change the Bank commission to 2.75%, which would effectively eliminate the house edge, and most Baccarat players' results would be about the same. This is because most Baccarat players don't just flat bet the Bank, they vary their bets wildly in terms of side and amount, and typically play until they lose all their chips no matter how far ahead they get. Even on a flat 50-50 coin toss if you're determined to keep betting more and more until you lose it all, that's what is going to happen most of the time.
There are simpletons I read about at other postings on the internet (are there any such here at WOV? I haven't noticed, I don't think we have any simpletons here) who think the house edge EXPLAINS ALL in Baccarat.
Quote: OnceDear'Fine tuning what you are doing'.... Did you start that fine tuning before or after losing the 80k? Is the trick, somehow to take 80 paces the wrong way, then take a 80 pace run up to build momentum into a 230k hit and run?
So, let me get this straight: While you were losing the $80k, you didn't wonder if your foresight secret had been stymied by casino processes, but instead you put it down to bad luck. And after walking from that table, you found the evidence that, of course it was bad luck, issued to you by your Jona of a friend..... But having dealt with that, you recognised that you were due to win and needed to press more... You pressed more and you won. Well done.
I guess you would have stopped if your friend had texted again in the latter part of the session? Or if some other bad omen had presented itself, or you would have bet bigger and harder if there had been a good omen, like maybe finding a dollar bill on the floor and handing it to a nearby beggar?
You do realise this latest report makes you sound less like a savvy advantage player* and more like a superstitious 'gambler'. This latter post must be a cover story for your Host that reads your posts here and knows all about you.
*Yes. I know. You never claimed that description.
I dunno, OD, your retorts to MD's ways don't seem to stack up. MD's had a session/s viewed by Wiz, and that session/s was a virtual replica of the way he constantly posts about his play. But you seem to be making a mockery of this.
Yes, his play may seem miraculous to you, but he showed it off to the Wiz, who confirmed it. Are you a perpetual doubter, OD, rather than MD being a fraud?
Quote: MDawgYES, Ali v. Frazier (3), in Manila. I watched all of it last night. It was different from the Foreman in Zaire fight in that Frazier really went at Ali like a brawler from the getgo, but Ali just somehow kept him at bay until he was able to get his own licks in.
Ali was definitely a more multi-talented fighter than many of the more recent heavyweight champs. Through a combination of verbal intimidation, fancy footwork, size, reach and speed, he seems to have been able to conquer many worthy opponents, notwithstanding that the power of Ali's punches wasn't always on the same level as his opponents.
It's very interesting about the different styles. Frazier would get flogged by Foreman, but give Ali a fight to the death. But Ali and Foreman would go toe-to-toe in a long dual.
That fight, Ali v Frazier in Manila, showed just how much punishment Frazier could take, and still keep up with Ali. Although Ali won that fight in the end, I think Frazier seemed to have a stronger spirit/will than Ali. That's how I read it, at least.
Dokes was a former champion whose career got sidetracked due to drugs. H was making his comeback and had won several fights in a row. Holyfield turned pro as a cruiserweight and was just starting to fight as a heavyweight.
It's,by far, the best heavyweight fight I ever saw live, although it pales next to Ali-Fraizer 3. I personally discount that fight as I saw Fraizer get his head handed to him by George Foreman. Twice. The second time in person.
Quote: MDawgDoes anyone understand this? That the house edge has little or nothing to do with why typical Baccarat players win or lose vast sums. (No Baccarat player simply flat bets the bank. Anyone who does that is a JOKE.)
As well does anyone understand that whatever edge I might have (or might not have 😄) would need to be better than simply eliminating the tiny house edge.
This is a simple thing to contest: All else being equal (absent any factors outside of the game itself)---is it better to play Baccarat as the casino or as the player?
Quote: Mission146This is a simple thing to contest: All else being equal (absent any factors outside of the game itself)---is it better to play Baccarat as the casino or as the player?
Obviously it's not good to be the casino, when MDawg is in the House. Or at least, that is how it has been, for some years now.
Quote: billryanIf you want to see a heavyweight brawl, search out Micheal Dokes vs Evander Holyfield.
Dokes was a former champion whose career got sidetracked due to drugs. H was making his comeback and had won several fights in a row. Holyfield turned pro as a cruiserweight and was just starting to fight as a heavyweight.
It's,by far, the best heavyweight fight I ever saw live, although it pales next to Ali-Fraizer 3. I personally discount that fight as I saw Fraizer get his head handed to him by George Foreman. Twice. The second time in person.
I might do that. Holyfield is one guy i would put up with the best heavyweights ever. I would say the same for Tyson, but only for the initial part of Tyson's career. During that period, Tyson must have been one of the most explosive heavyweights ever.
Quote: MDawgObviously it's not good to be the casino, when MDawg is in the House. Or at least, that is how it has been, for some years now.
Obviously they disagree, as they keep comping you to stay and come back! LoL
