Wifeslayer
Joined: Apr 15, 2019
• Posts: 14
October 2nd, 2019 at 12:27:18 PM permalink
So in the baccarat FAQ at the wizardofodds I remember reading under a post from the wizard he was answering a question obviously and he stated that in baccarat every opposing bet made to that of the previous decision there is an ever so slight higher chance of winning on the next decision so for example banker wins hand #1 so hand #2 player has an ever so slight increase in chance of winning vs the banker hand.
My question is what is the math and reasoning behind this statement?
Thanks
- Jason
michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
• Posts: 2112
October 2nd, 2019 at 12:35:53 PM permalink
Very interesting.

Considering that several of the high rollers here who have overcome the house edge, have done so by “riding the streaks”.
TigerWu
Joined: May 23, 2016
• Posts: 4022
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October 2nd, 2019 at 12:36:33 PM permalink
Here's the quote from the FAQ:

Quote:

As I show in my baccarat appendix 2 a shoe rich in small cards favors the player and a shoe rich in large cards favors the banker. Thus, in baccarat, there is an extremely slight disposition that the next outcome will be the opposite of the last.

Basically, the reasoning is that more small cards equals a more likely player win, and once those small cards have left the shoe after a player win, there are more large cards in the shoe which make a banker win more likely. Those large cards come out giving a banker win, meaning more small cards are left equaling a more likely player win, and so on and so on.
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 23607
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October 2nd, 2019 at 3:45:33 PM permalink
I forgot that I said that, but could see it being true. A more practical question would be to not just look at the last hand, but all of them, since there is usually a sign posted showing the history. I double it would dent the house edge more than 0.01% though.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
• Posts: 3000
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October 2nd, 2019 at 7:16:16 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I forgot that I said that, but could see it being true. A more practical question would be to not just look at the last hand, but all of them, since there is usually a sign posted showing the history. I double it would dent the house edge more than 0.01% though.

I recollect reading somewhere that while baccarat is not countable to become +EV in any meaningful sense, there is a counting system that will tell you when it is least -EV to bet banker vs player.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Wifeslayer
Joined: Apr 15, 2019
• Posts: 14
October 3rd, 2019 at 9:37:50 PM permalink
There is an app on the android market where anytime a card is drawn from the shu you input it and it will calculate exactly like the wizards bacc game does calculates which side to place the bet. Thinking about it now that’s a complex code to write maybe the creator of this so called app copied the wizards code from his game lol just talking here no truth to the last statement
DogHand
Joined: Sep 24, 2011
• Posts: 458
October 3rd, 2019 at 10:34:16 PM permalink
Wifeslayer,

The procedure is not difficult: I've created an Excel spreadsheet that gives the Banker, Player, Tie, and numerous baccarat sidebet EV's almost instantaneously for any given set of remaining cards.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand