DHass22
DHass22
Joined: Dec 22, 2011
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January 4th, 2020 at 11:27:31 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

In roulette ....

You can make up more even
chance bets using the streets.
With O/E, R/B/. H/L, and two
made up of streets, that makes
five streams to follow and there
is always a streak going on in
one of them.



??? what are his 5 even money streams ???
I understand his 1st three are; odd/even, red/black, & hi/low, but what are 2 others?
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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January 5th, 2020 at 8:03:55 AM permalink
THE CASINO BETS ON STREAKS ALL THE TIME!
STREAKS exist in the eye of the beholder, never in the dice, wheel or little white ball.
The casino knows this.
That is why there are annunciator panels at roulette and baccarat, to re-inforce in the player's mind the concept of streaks. That is what the casino wants: players who believe. Players with hope. Players who think they can discern a pattern.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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January 5th, 2020 at 8:33:47 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

THE CASINO BETS ON STREAKS ALL THE TIME!
STREAKS exist in the eye of the beholder, never in the dice, wheel or little white ball.
The casino knows this.
That is why there are annunciator panels at roulette and baccarat, to re-inforce in the player's mind the concept of streaks. That is what the casino wants: players who believe. Players with hope. Players who think they can discern a pattern.

You missed a few words: Suckers, Marks, Losers
This is why casinos LOVE roulette. There's always some sort of streak going on: Red/black, High/low, Odd/even, Column, Dozen. Fools will always see and seize these streaks.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
billryan
billryan 
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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January 5th, 2020 at 9:00:32 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

You missed a few words: Suckers, Marks, Losers
This is why casinos LOVE roulette. There's always some sort of streak going on: Red/black, High/low, Odd/even, Column, Dozen. Fools will always see and seize these streaks.



If I was one of the highly successful steak players that post here, I'd be insulted.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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January 5th, 2020 at 9:09:16 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

If I was one of the highly successful steak players that post here, I'd be insulted.

OK I'll rephrase that:-
Fools and self proclaimed highly successful streak players will always see and seize these streaks. $:o)
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
pwcrabb
pwcrabb
Joined: May 15, 2010
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January 5th, 2020 at 5:20:32 PM permalink
Using only rational tools including mathematics which are widely acknowledged to be available to all humans, no one can predict either the next independent random event or even less the prolongation or termination of an existing streak.

However, anecdotes abound concerning emotional investments in streaks. Emotional investment is not rational. Control of one's own reactions to one's emotional investments is a useful skill. Rules of decision which support such skills are not without value. Mathematics is not the correct yardstick with which to measure skills of self-control.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
Gialmere
Gialmere
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June 26th, 2020 at 5:39:36 PM permalink
I came across an article (actually a book excerpt) discussing the psychology of streaks, both for gambling and our daily lives. There's not much on the gambling side that hasn't already been discussed here, but it does present interesting ways to consider it.

For example, if I were to flip a coin 3 times and get 3 heads, would you think the result strange? Probably not. Now, suppose I flipped a coin 100 times and got 100 heads. Would you think that result was strange? Probably yes, and you'd likely consider the coin to be rigged. But suppose you were completely satisfied as to the fairness of the coin. How many heads in a row can you see before you conclude something weird is going on? 10 heads? 25? 40?

At some point we humans break down. We think that although something is mathematically possible, it just can't happen that way in real life. After 10, or 25, or 40 heads, the next result MUST be tails. Our minds feel that small samples must reflect large samples but, of course, they don't. Flip a coin 1 million times and you'll get an orderly result of approximately 50/50. Flip it 10 or 100 times and who knows? It's chaos.

"Hope springs eternal" so the saying goes and it seems to be a mantra for humanity. If you're having a bad run in life, if you didn't get that promotion, if your car breaks down, if your kid gets sick, we tend to take solace in the fact our luck is due to change for the better. But nothing is "due" and things can always get worse (a letter says the IRS wants to audit you, your doctor is concerned about that splotch on your skin). But what if things are going great? You got that promotion, your family is healthy and all your bills are paid. Suddenly, we tend to think of this state as normal, that the good times/winning streak can, should and will continue ... forever.

The writer (who specializes in human behavior and decision making in particular) decides to test her ideas out by entering a poker tournament. Confronted with stress and pressure, she knew how her mind would go wrong but, with her education, she also knew precisely what to do to counter it. She practiced several weeks for the tourney including with a poker expert and, although she obviously considered herself a novice, was good to go.

And she started off well. For the first few hours her stack grew. A voice in her head told her she was pretty good at this, that she might reach the final table and make her teacher proud. Then she got pocket jacks and bet big. With an ace and king showing on the flop, the Ivy League educated part of her brain screamed she was being overconfident. The part of her brain actually playing the game, however, didn't listen. After all, she hadn't won for the last several hands and she was due. She had pocket jacks for God's sake!

She lost half her stack. Then she chased her losses. Then ... well, you know how this story ends. So much for the Ivy League.

The interesting part of the article is when she talks to a video game designer who also loves to play poker. Although he considers poker bad game design according to modern-day conceptions of how video games are designed, he actually thinks it’s a better game design because it's so brutally honest about probability. Poker teaches that you aren't due for anything: good cards, good health, money, love ... nothing.

But what does he mean by "modern-day conceptions" for video games? To answer this, you have to go back to the question of, "Is it strange if you flip 3 heads in a row on a fair coin?"

Quote: Frank Lantz

In video games where there are random events — things like dice rolls — they often skew the randomness so that it corresponds more closely to people’s incorrect intuition. If you flip heads twice in a row, you’re less likely to flip heads the third time. We know this isn’t actually true, but it feels like it should be true, because we have this weird intuition about large numbers and how randomness works. The resulting games actually accommodate that wrongness so that people don’t feel like the setup is “rigged” or “unfair.” So they actually make it so that you’re less likely to flip heads the third time. They jigger the probabilities.


In other words, if the designers don't cheat in the player's favor, the players will think that they're being cheated. What does that say about the human mind?

Full Story at FiveThirtyEight
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
tough
tough
Joined: Jun 22, 2020
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June 27th, 2020 at 1:49:13 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

But in something like Baccarat, the cards are set in the shoe, and whatever happens in the next hand is fixed and may not change. Here is a shoe I recently played,



I respectfully disagree. Baccarat is just as random as a coin flip. Forget the technicalities of banker having a very slightly higher chance than player being dealt.

Do you somehow think that you would be able to predict a coin flip better if someone were to flip a coin 50 times, record it, then you had to guess heads or tails VS. you having to guess heads or tails before each flip? To me it's all the same unless you're psychic or something, so you can read the information that was written down or connect to it somehow.

Cards that were already used from the deck only affect the results so insignificantly, that it's still like a coin flip.
Ron44
Ron44
Joined: Aug 22, 2019
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June 28th, 2020 at 7:01:22 AM permalink
What determines when you start to bet on a streak and when to stop betting on the streak because it switches? What betting sequence do you recommend for pressing into a streak? Thanks a lot. I am trying to learn so that I can start winning at baccarat or at least limit my losses.
billryan
billryan 
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
Ron44
June 28th, 2020 at 8:05:41 AM permalink
Quote: Ron44

What determines when you start to bet on a streak and when to stop betting on the streak because it switches? What betting sequence do you recommend for pressing into a streak? Thanks a lot. I am trying to learn so that I can start winning at baccarat or at least limit my losses.



Thre are too many factors to give a simple solution. What is the game? Is the dealer a blond? Is he or she left-handed? Now we have to plug social distancing into the equation.
I , myself, use a modified Oscars' Grind, with a twist in such situations.

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