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Thekid
Thekid
Joined: Aug 20, 2019
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RS
August 28th, 2019 at 1:18:25 PM permalink
I am trying to figure out if my strategy will work. It is pretty much a reverse martingale system. Bet banker every hand in EZ baccarat and double it up until you win 6 times in a row. When you win 6 times start over. I used it for the first 1000 shoes in the first 25k shoe simulation on wizard of Odds to see the results. Player won 35944 times so on a $25 bet I would have lost $898600. Banker won 6 times in a row 645 times which means I would have won $1032000 profiting $133400. The one thing I couldn’t take into consideration was when banker won with a 3 card 7 which would equal a push in EZ baccarat not a win. How can I factor that in? Will it still be positive?
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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August 28th, 2019 at 1:51:31 PM permalink
Quote: Thekid

I am trying to figure out if my strategy will work. It is pretty much a reverse martingale system.

It will work until it does not work
and you run out of bankroll.

This has already been tried at least over 1 million times before and not 1 Baccarat syndicate uses that system to win today.

Why do you think you are different??

Quote: Thekid

The one thing I couldn’t take into consideration was when banker won with a 3 card 7 which would equal a push in EZ baccarat not a win.

too bad you couldn’t take into consideration...
that sounds to me like a loser system talking

try something more unique and interesting
Back to the drawing board.

added: because...
I took the Wizard's 1,000 8 deck shoe collection (shows the cards) and placed it into Excel (after removing the Ties)
and got this
Player hit 37,356 for a loss of $933,900
580 times the Banker won 6 in a row - left streak the same when the Dragon 7 hit
(then started over at $25 on Banker) for a net gain each time of $1,550
for a total net gain of $899,000

no winner, no chicken dinner
Last edited by: 7craps on Aug 28, 2019
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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August 29th, 2019 at 7:18:27 AM permalink
Quote: 7craps

I took the Wizard's 1,000 8 deck shoe collection (shows the cards) and placed it into Excel (after removing the Ties)
and got this
Player hit 37,356 for a loss of $933,900
580 times the Banker won 6 in a row - left streak the same when the Dragon 7 hit
(then started over at $25 on Banker) for a net gain each time of $1,550
for a total net gain of $899,000

no winner, no chicken dinner

correction time
for a net gain each time of $1,550 should be
for a net gain each time of $1,575

Player hit 37,356 for a loss of $933,900
580 times the Banker won 6 in a row - left streak the same when the Dragon 7 hit
(then started over at $25 on Banker) for a net gain each time of $1,575
for a total net gain of $913,500 on Banker win streak 6
net - $20,400

Now, I ran 10,000 shoes in my program that shows the cards and the Dragon 7
Player hit 363,611 for a loss of $9,090,275
5328 times the Banker won 6 in a row for a net gain each time of $1,575
for a total net gain of $8,391,600 on Banker win streak 6
net - $698,675

gets worse as expected
next
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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August 29th, 2019 at 7:30:30 AM permalink
Quote: Thekid

I am trying to figure out if my strategy will work. It is pretty much a reverse martingale system. Bet banker every hand in EZ baccarat and double it up until you win 6 times in a row.

Brings up the question
How often (expectation) does the Banker win 6 in a row (per shoe) at EZ Baccarat? (Dragon 7 does NOT break the Banker win streak)

on average, I get, 151.4867694 rounds (say 152) to see Banker 6 wins in a row
Last edited by: 7craps on Aug 29, 2019
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
cezar
cezar
Joined: Oct 5, 2019
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October 5th, 2019 at 2:37:47 PM permalink
Martingale system never works. I learned it many times
aftercrafter
aftercrafter
Joined: Sep 25, 2019
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October 14th, 2019 at 12:19:40 PM permalink
To put it mildly, you should rethink a few moments of your baccarat strategy 🤔
MJGolf
MJGolf
Joined: Aug 17, 2016
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September 10th, 2020 at 8:50:24 PM permalink
I hate to reawaken an older thread, but I also tried this similarly (but just martingaling the banker bet) and going back to original bet when it won. I didn't do this very many times but just for fun and it was a positive win experience. Not anything to be close to the many shoes you guys ran with Wizards compositions but my question was why it' wouldn't work IF my understanding is banker wins more often than player. And the only bad result is a tie when the banker hits the requisite 3 card 7 hand that is a push. I sure don't even remember a time that I had to go to a 6x banker bet like mentioned.

So why would martingaling in this situation NOT work? Just asking you math guys. The game I was playing at the casino here has been removed since then so it's not available any longer but wondered.
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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Thanks for this post from:
MJGolf
September 11th, 2020 at 5:12:35 AM permalink
Quote: MJGolf

I hate to reawaken an older thread, but I also tried this similarly (but just martingaling the banker bet) and going back to original bet when it won. I didn't do this very many times but just for fun and it was a positive win experience. Not anything to be close to the many shoes you guys ran with Wizards compositions but my question was why it' wouldn't work IF my understanding is banker wins more often than player. And the only bad result is a tie when the banker hits the requisite 3 card 7 hand that is a push. I sure don't even remember a time that I had to go to a 6x banker bet like mentioned.

So why would martingaling in this situation NOT work? Just asking you math guys. The game I was playing at the casino here has been removed since then so it's not available any longer but wondered.



A quick looksee revealed the caveat. That 3 card 7 push means that for all non-tie games, the Player wins more often than banker

https://wizardofodds.com/games/ez-baccarat/
Banker Bet
EVENTPAYSPROBABILITYRETURN
Banker win (except on 3-card 7)10.4360640.436064
Tie Where Banker win on 3-card 700.0225340.000000
Other Tie00.0951560.000000
Player wins-10.446247-0.446247
Total01.000000-0.010183


Banker Bet, Eliminating Ties
EVENTPAYSPROBABILITYRETURN
Banker win (except on 3-card 7)10.4942290.494229
Banker loses-10.50577-0.50577
Total01.000000-0.011542


Which begs the question, why doesn't betting Player give an advantage?
Well, if you bet Player and Banker wins with a 3 card 7, that is not considered a tie for you: It's considered a lose.

As to probability of 6 consecutive losses, betting banker... 1/(0.50577)^6 = 1 in 59.74. You wouldn't need to play long to encounter that.

E&OE
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..

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