EZ Baccarat reverse martingale

I am trying to figure out if my strategy will work. It is pretty much a reverse martingale system. Bet banker every hand in EZ baccarat and double it up until you win 6 times in a row. When you win 6 times start over. I used it for the first 1000 shoes in the first 25k shoe simulation on wizard of Odds to see the results. Player won 35944 times so on a $25 bet I would have lost $898600. Banker won 6 times in a row 645 times which means I would have won $1032000 profiting $133400. The one thing I couldn’t take into consideration was when banker won with a 3 card 7 which would equal a push in EZ baccarat not a win. How can I factor that in? Will it still be positive?

Quote: Thekid

I am trying to figure out if my strategy will work. It is pretty much a reverse martingale system.

It will work until it does not work
and you run out of bankroll.

This has already been tried at least over 1 million times before and not 1 Baccarat syndicate uses that system to win today.

Why do you think you are different??

Quote: Thekid

The one thing I couldn’t take into consideration was when banker won with a 3 card 7 which would equal a push in EZ baccarat not a win.

too bad you couldn’t take into consideration...
that sounds to me like a loser system talking

try something more unique and interesting
Back to the drawing board.

added: because...
I took the Wizard's 1,000 8 deck shoe collection (shows the cards) and placed it into Excel (after removing the Ties)
and got this
Player hit 37,356 for a loss of $933,900
580 times the Banker won 6 in a row - left streak the same when the Dragon 7 hit
(then started over at $25 on Banker) for a net gain each time of $1,550
for a total net gain of $899,000

no winner, no chicken dinner

Quote: 7craps

I took the Wizard's 1,000 8 deck shoe collection (shows the cards) and placed it into Excel (after removing the Ties)
and got this
Player hit 37,356 for a loss of $933,900
580 times the Banker won 6 in a row - left streak the same when the Dragon 7 hit
(then started over at $25 on Banker) for a net gain each time of $1,550
for a total net gain of $899,000

no winner, no chicken dinner

correction time
for a net gain each time of $1,550 should be
for a net gain each time of $1,575

Player hit 37,356 for a loss of $933,900
580 times the Banker won 6 in a row - left streak the same when the Dragon 7 hit
(then started over at $25 on Banker) for a net gain each time of $1,575
for a total net gain of $913,500 on Banker win streak 6
net - $20,400

Now, I ran 10,000 shoes in my program that shows the cards and the Dragon 7
Player hit 363,611 for a loss of $9,090,275
5328 times the Banker won 6 in a row for a net gain each time of $1,575
for a total net gain of $8,391,600 on Banker win streak 6
net - $698,675

gets worse as expected
next

Quote: Thekid

I am trying to figure out if my strategy will work. It is pretty much a reverse martingale system. Bet banker every hand in EZ baccarat and double it up until you win 6 times in a row.

Brings up the question
How often (expectation) does the Banker win 6 in a row (per shoe) at EZ Baccarat? (Dragon 7 does NOT break the Banker win streak)

Martingale system never works. I learned it many times

To put it mildly, you should rethink a few moments of your baccarat strategy 🤔

I hate to reawaken an older thread, but I also tried this similarly (but just martingaling the banker bet) and going back to original bet when it won. I didn't do this very many times but just for fun and it was a positive win experience. Not anything to be close to the many shoes you guys ran with Wizards compositions but my question was why it' wouldn't work IF my understanding is banker wins more often than player. And the only bad result is a tie when the banker hits the requisite 3 card 7 hand that is a push. I sure don't even remember a time that I had to go to a 6x banker bet like mentioned.

So why would martingaling in this situation NOT work? Just asking you math guys. The game I was playing at the casino here has been removed since then so it's not available any longer but wondered.

Quote: MJGolf

I hate to reawaken an older thread, but I also tried this similarly (but just martingaling the banker bet) and going back to original bet when it won. I didn't do this very many times but just for fun and it was a positive win experience. Not anything to be close to the many shoes you guys ran with Wizards compositions but my question was why it' wouldn't work IF my understanding is banker wins more often than player. And the only bad result is a tie when the banker hits the requisite 3 card 7 hand that is a push. I sure don't even remember a time that I had to go to a 6x banker bet like mentioned.

So why would martingaling in this situation NOT work? Just asking you math guys. The game I was playing at the casino here has been removed since then so it's not available any longer but wondered.

A quick looksee revealed the caveat. That 3 card 7 push means that for all non-tie games, the Player wins more often than banker

https://wizardofodds.com/games/ez-baccarat/
Banker Bet

EVENT	PAYS	PROBABILITY	RETURN
Banker win (except on 3-card 7)	1	0.436064	0.436064
Tie Where Banker win on 3-card 7	0	0.022534	0.000000
Other Tie	0	0.095156	0.000000
Player wins	-1	0.446247	-0.446247
Total	0	1.000000	-0.010183

Banker Bet, Eliminating Ties

EVENT	PAYS	PROBABILITY	RETURN
Banker win (except on 3-card 7)	1	0.494229	0.494229
Banker loses	-1	0.50577	-0.50577
Total	0	1.000000	-0.011542

Which begs the question, why doesn't betting Player give an advantage?
Well, if you bet Player and Banker wins with a 3 card 7, that is not considered a tie for you: It's considered a lose.

As to probability of 6 consecutive losses, betting banker... 1/(0.50577)^6 = 1 in 59.74. You wouldn't need to play long to encounter that.

E&OE

Quote: cezar

Martingale system never works. I learned it many times

link to original post

I see it personally at the casino almost every single day and night I work, repeatedly. Day in and day out.

Try it with your cash instead of playing around on testing.

Be real about it.

Same as driving a race car in an arcade game machine versus a real one.

Quote: Marcusclark66

Quote: cezar

Martingale system never works. I learned it many times

link to original post

I see it personally at the casino almost every single day and night I work, repeatedly. Day in and day out.

Try it with your cash instead of playing around on testing.

Be real about it.

Same as driving a race car in an arcade game machine versus a real one.

link to original post

Worst Advice Ever.

Quote: Marcusclark66

Quote: cezar

Martingale system never works. I learned it many times

link to original post

I see it personally at the casino almost every single day and night I work, repeatedly. Day in and day out.

Try it with your cash instead of playing around on testing.

Be real about it.

Same as driving a race car in an arcade game machine versus a real one.

link to original post

so REVERSE MARTINGALE is just pressing your bets 100% when you win.
OP's strategy is after 6 wins in a row, take profit and start over at the base bet.

That's no different than the Wiz's Millionaire Roulette pressing strategy.
Bet $25 a #, let everything ride twice, and have $1,071,875.
odds of you winning 3 times in a row on a single # on a single 0 table is 36 *36 * 36 = 1 in 46,656.

Easy peasy (says no Mathlete)

It's easier on BJ. The problem is when you win six in a row, drop back down to a single bet and then win two or three in a row. visions of what could have been destroy your meager winnings.

Quote: billryan

It's easier on BJ. The problem is when you win six in a row, drop back down to a single bet and then win two or three in a row. visions of what could have been destroy your meager winnings.

link to original post

ahh.. greed leading to downfall.
been there many times (in craps pressing my bet on the Dont's).

the flip side is losing the next bet and all that profit vanishes